Patriots vs. Bills Total Prediction
A pivotal early-season clash in the AFC East will take place in Buffalo on Sunday when the Bills host division rival the Patriots at 1:00 p.m. ET. Will the game turn into a defensive struggle that under bettors can cash in on?
263 New England Patriots (-7) at 264 Buffalo Bills (+7); O/U 42
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, September 29, 2019
New Era Field, Orchard Park, NY
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Patriots are receiving 61% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
New England Patriots Fantasy Spin
Tom Brady completed 28-of-42 passes for 306 yards and two touchdowns while also notching two carries for a loss of one yard Sunday in New England’s Week 3 win over the Jets. Brady wasn’t sacked in the victory. Playing a glorified scrimmage against a Jets team starting undrafted third-stringer Luke Falk at quarterback, Brady delivered as casual a 300 yards as you'll ever see, spreading the wealth to seven different receivers including Josh Gordon, who led the way with 83 yards on six catches. The first of Brady’s two touchdowns came on a 25-yard play-action pass to Phillip Dorsett, who scampered into the end zone untouched. Later Brady connected with Julian Edelman, finding him all alone for a layup touchdown on third-and-goal. Brady took a breather with New England up big in the fourth quarter but was called back in after rookie Jarrett Stidham threw a pick-six in his lone series. After barely breaking a sweat in their first three games, the Patriots will have to exert slightly more energy when they head to Buffalo to face the undefeated Bills in Week 4.
Buffalo Bills Fantasy Spin
Josh Allen completed 22-of-36 passes for 243 yards with one touchdown and an interception in Buffalo's Week 3 win over the Bengals. Allen was also effective in the run game, rushing for 46 yards on nine carries. Most of those yards came on broken plays and not designed runs, but this was another strong outing from Allen. Allen's touchdown came on one-yard play-action that was wide open. There were some bad plays from Allen in this one -- he had an intentional grounding that put Buffalo out of field goal range and his interception was an off-script forced throw -- but the Bills are now undefeated through their first three games. Allen will get his first real test against the Patriots in Week 4.
NFL Betting Trends
The under 7-2 in the Patriots’ last nine divisional games and is 6-2 in their last eight games on the road.
The under is a near-perfect 5-1 in the Bills’ last six games overall but the over has hit in 18 of Buffalo’s last 25 home games.
The under has been profitable in recent meetings between these two teams, cashing in five of the previous seven matchups between the Pats and Bills. Given the serious allegations facing now former receiver Antonio Brown, New England’s defense has largely flown under the radar in the first three weeks. The Patriots held the Steelers to a single field goal in Week 1, shut out the Dolphins in Week 2 and then held the Jets to 14 points (which included a pick-six) in Week 3. That’s not exactly a Murder’s Row of offenses but the Pats have been impressive nonetheless. While Brady will still get his, I see this game turning into a defensive battle.
NFL Week 4 Prediction: Patriots/Bills UNDER 42