Colts vs. Chargers Over/Under Prediction
The Andrew Luck-less Colts will open their season in L.A. on Sunday when they visit the Chargers at 4:05 p.m. ET. Will Jacoby Brissett provide Indy and bettors with enough offense for this matchup to get over the total this weekend?
473 Indianapolis Colts (+6.5) at 474 Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5); O/U 44.5
4:05 p.m. ET, Sunday, September 8, 2019
Dignity Health Sports Park, Carson, CA
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Chargers are receiving 71% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Spin
Colts agreed to terms with Jacoby Brissett on a new two-year, $30 million contract. The extension includes $20 million guaranteed at signing after the sides agreed to rip up the final year of Brissett's old deal. It's a nice payday for the Colts' starting quarterback. Brissett completed fewer than 60 percent of his passes and averaged just 6.6 yards per attempt as the team's starter in 2017, but this year's team boasts a vastly improved offensive line with several more competent playmakers at wide receiver, tight end and running back.
Los Angeles Chargers Fantasy Spin
Coach Anthony Lynn said that he plans to continue to utilize multiple running backs ahead of the Chargers' Week 1 matchup against the Colts. Specifically, Lynn noted that, "I've always used those guys as a tandem, that's not going to change." ESPN's Eric Williams reported earlier in August that the Chargers are expected to use a 50/50 split in their backfield, although their preseason usage with the first-team offense suggested we could see something closer to a 60/40 split in favor of Austin Ekeler. This arrangement makes the most sense, as Ekeler is a more-established receiving threat than Justin Jackson at this point in their careers. Ekeler is set up well this week to rack up underneath targets behind the Chargers' banged-up offensive line against a Colts defense that utilized zone coverage at a league-high rate in 2018.
NFL Betting Trends
The under is 6-1 in the Colts’ last seven games versus AFC opponents and is 4-1 in their last five road games.
The over is 4-0 in the Chargers’ last four games played in the month of September but the under is 5-1 in their last six home games.
In the last four meetings between these two teams, the under is 4-0-1. The under is also 4-0 the last four times the Chargers have hosted the Colts. Brissett isn’t a young QB. He’s 27 and spent his first NFL season learning the Patriots’ offense while studying Tom Brady. He’s not going to crater the offense but at the same time, this L.A. defense is stout and owns one of the nastiest pass-rushes in the NFL. Losing Derwin James to injury was a big blow, but the Bolts should be able to handle T.Y. Hilton and Co. on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Chargers will start the season without holdout Melvin Gordon and while they still have Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen, the Colts’ still boast one of the more underrated defenses in the league (one that should only continue to improve). I see a relatively low-scoring game this weekend in Carson.
NFL Week 1 Prediction: Colts/Chargers UNDER 44.5