Patriots vs. Falcons Over/Under Pick
Will tonight's Super Bowl 51 matchup between the Patriots and Falcons live up to its high-scoring hype?
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, the Falcons are 3-point underdogs versus the Patriots while the over/under currently sits at 58.5 points. As of this writing neither the point spread or the over/under have moved off the original number set by oddsmakers.
NEW ENGLAND KEY TRENDS: The Patriots are 4-0 against the spread in their last four games against the Falcons and have covered in five of their last six playoff games. They're also a perfect 5-0 at the betting window in their last five games versus a team with a winning record and are 20-8-2 against the number in their last 30 games coming off a win. That said, they're just 1-4 against the spread in their last five Super Bowl games.
ATLANTA KEY TRENDS: The underdog is 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings between these two teams. The Falcons have also covered in five of their last six games, are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games against an opponent that has a winning record, but are just 2-6 at the betting window in their last eight playoff games (and that's despite covering against the Packers and Seahawks this year).
OUR PREDICTION: Both of these teams can score but the Patriots rank first in the NFL in points allowed, surrendering just 15.6 points per game. The Falcons' young defense has also come into its own over the second half of the season, holding five of their last six opponents to 21 points or fewer. Bill Belichick isn't going to allow Matt Ryan and the Atlanta offense to strike for big plays and while New England's offense is dangerous because of Tom Brady, the Falcons have the speed defensively to keep the Pats somewhat in check. Even if both teams get into the 20s, the could fall well under.
SUPER BOWL 51 PICK: PATRIOTS/FALCONS UNDER 58.5