Tom Brady Prop Bets Predictions
Is Tom Brady good for a couple of touchdown passes against the Eagles tonight when the Patriots take on Philly in Super Bowl 52?
According to oddsmakers from online sports book YouWager, the Patriots are now 4.5-point favorites to beat the Eagles after opening as a 6-point Super Bowl favorite. As for the total, the number hit the board at 47.5 or 48 but is now up to 48.5 at most online and Vegas sports books.
As of this writing, 53% of the betting tickets that have been wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Eagles to cover the point spread as an underdog. Public bettors also like the over, as 58% of the betting tickets wagered online is on the over.
Rule No. 1 when it comes to betting on Super Bowl propositions: Oddsmakers will inflate the numbers because they know public bettors have a habit of saying "yes" when it comes to prop odds. For example: Will Tom Brady complete at least 28 passes tonight in the Super Bowl? 'I'm not betting against Tom!' says a novice bettor.
Look, Brady could very well complete 40 passes tonight. I wouldn't put it past him. And if he does complete 35-of-50 pass attempts for 400 yards and four touchdowns, then a lot of "Joe Public" bettors are going to have a great night celebrating.
That said, the true value is in the under when it comes to Brady's prop bets. Philadelphia owns one of the league's best defenses this season and while Brady will certainly put up good numbers, there's no reason to pay an inflated price at the betting window. Thus, I'm taking the under on his completions, pass attempts and passing yards. If he burns me, he burns me, but again, there's value in the under.
The only prop bet I'm taking to go over his 1.5 for touchdowns thrown. He's thrown at least two touchdowns in every game since Week 16.
Tom Brady Total Completions: Under 27.5
Tom Brady Total Pass Attempts: Under 41
Tom Brady Total Passing Yards: Under 298.5
Tom Brady Total Touchdown Passes Thrown: Over 1.5