Rob Gronkowski SB Prop Predictions
Despite missing the second half of the AFC title game, will Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski go off on the Eagles in Super Bowl 52 on Sunday?
According to oddsmakers from online sports book YouWager, the Patriots are 4.5-point favorites to beat the Eagles in Super Bowl LII. New England opened as a 6-point favorite at most online sportsbooks but the number has dropped steadily since. As for the total, the number hit the board at 47.5, went up to 48, but is back down to 47.5 at some books.
Despite being the underdog, the Eagles are receiving the majority of the backing from the public. As of Thursday morning, 55% of betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Eagles to cover the spread. Meanwhile, 61% of the betting tickets are on the over.
Rob Gronkowski Total Receptions: Under 5.5
If you read anything in this article read this: The reason why I'm fading Gronk to some degree is not because he suffered the concussion against Jacksonville. I'm not banking on him getting cussed again and missing most of the Super Bowl. The reason why I'm fading Gronk's prop bets is because oddsmakers seemingly inflated these numbers based on how Gronkowski is a superstar and they know they'll get plenty of action on him this Sunday. And if you're betting on Gronk's prop odds, you're likely taking the over. The other reason why I'm fading Gronk is because the Eagles owned the No. 3 fantasy defense against tight ends this season. They've been great against tight ends all year so while Gronk will certainly get his targets, I don't think he'll have his best game. I've got him down for four or five catches.
Rob Gronkowski Total Receiving Yards: Under 74.5
This is the one I'm worried about because the number isn't overly inflated. He went over 74.5 receiving yards in nine of the 15 games he played in this year, including against Tennessee in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. I think he gets close to this number but I'm still taking the under.
Rob Gronkowski Longest Reception: Under 26.5
Gronk's lone reception in the AFC Championship Game was a 21-yarder and his high in the Divisional Round was a 27-yard pass. Even if he winds up doing more damage then I project, I still don't think he'll catch a pass longer than 26.5 yards.