Super Bowl 54 First Quarter Prop Bet
With hundreds of props to wade through when it comes to betting on the Super Bowl, one of the more overlooked wagers is the side and total for the first quarter. Is there an advantage for bettors when it comes to betting the 49ers and Chiefs first quarter prop?
101 San Francisco 49ers vs. 102 Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5); o/u 54.5
6:30 p.m. ET, Sunday, February 2, 2020
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
According to our NFL Public Betting Chart page, the Chiefs are drawing 59% of the betting tickets ahead of Saturday’s game.
First Quarter Prop Odds
When it comes to betting the first quarter of Super Bowl 54 only, the side is listed as a pick’em at most sports books, while the total is currently sitting at 10 points. When you compare those figures to the NFL Lines for the entire game, the second quarter (pick’em; o/u 14.5), the third quarter (pick’em; 10.5) or the fourth quarter (pick’em, 14.5), you’ll notice that the over/under is set lowest for the first quarter.
The question becomes: Does the first quarter offer bettors any value? Let’s take a deeper dive.
TeamRankings.com has a breakdown of offense scored by quarter (regular season and postseason included). Only the Ravens (7.5) and Patriots (7.1) averaged more points in the first quarter of NFL games this year than the 49ers (6.7). Over their last three games, the 49ers averaged 8.0 points in the first quarter, which was tied for second-highest behind the Texans (9.3). As for the Chiefs, they averaged 5.4 points per game in the first quarter this season and that number actually dropped to 3.3 over their last three games.
Another thing we need to consider is how the defenses of these respective teams fared in the first quarter. The Niners allowed 4.1 points per game in the first quarter throughout the season, but held the opposition to 2.3 PPG in the first quarters of their last three contests. The Chiefs, meanwhile, surrendered 6.2 PPG in the first quarter this season and a whopping 10.3 PPG in the first quarter in their last three games, which includes 10 points allowed to the Titans in the AFC Championship Game and 21 points allowed to the Texans in the Divisional round.
If these trends hold up, the 49ers and the over are the plays in the first quarter. The Niners have a tendency to start fast and the Chiefs have shown over their last two games that they’ve struggled stopping the opposition after kickoff before settling in defensively. If you like the over for the game, then I see plenty of value in taking the over 10 when it comes to this first quarter prop.
Super Bowl 54 Betting Prop: 49ers Pick’em & Over 10 in First Quarter