Raheem Mostert SB54 Prop Predictions
With the 49ers set to take on the Chiefs in Super Bowl 54 on Sunday, what are the best prop predictions relating to San Francisco running back Raheem Mostert?
101 San Francisco 49ers (+1) at 102 Kansas City Chiefs (-1); o/u 54
6:30 p.m. ET, Sunday, February 2, 2020
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Chiefs are receiving 59% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Raheem Mostert Super Bowl Prop Predictions
First and foremost, I see this game playing out the opposite of what we saw transpire a year ago between the Patriots and Rams. In that Super Bowl, the two teams combined for zero touchdowns through three quarters, then New England found the end zone in the final 15 minutes of an eventual 13-3 victory over L.A.
This year, I see the two teams combing to go over the total currently set at 54. In fact, I see this game playing out the way the 49ers-Saints matchup did in Week 14 when the two teams traded scores until the final seconds ticked off the clock of an eventual San Francisco victory.
If I’m right and Super Bowl 54 plays out in a similar manner, then we should have a good idea of how much Mostert will be involved. In that game, he rushed 10 times for 69 yards and a touchdown while also catching two passes for 40 yards and an additional score. He made a significant impact in that win over the Saints, but obviously not to the degree that he did in the NFC title win over the Packers two weeks ago (220 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 29 carries).
Based on his production in the New Orleans game, what are the best prop bets involving Mostert this weekend? While every sports book is different, his over/under for rushing yards has been set at 70.5. Since I’m projected similar production from Mostert as he had in the New Orleans game, I’m going to pass on his rush yards prop since he gained 70 yards on the ground versus the Saints. That said, if I’m right about Sunday being a shootout, then I doubt Mostert attempts over 15.5 rushes, which is his over/under for Super Bowl 54. Thus, the under 15.5 is my first play.
The other Mostert prop that I like is over 1.5 receptions at +120. If you go back through his game log, Mostert averaged 0.93 receptions per game. That said, he caught at least one pass in seven of his final eight games during the regular season and despite Jimmy Garoppolo attempting only 8 passes in the NFC title game, Mostert even caught two passes against the Packers.
If I’m right about Mostert catching at least two passes, then there’s an interesting double-dip opportunity involving his receiving yards prop. The over/under has been set at 13.5 receiving yards, which isn’t a lot but it’s right there with his regular-season average of 12.0. Plus, out of the four times he caught at least two passes during the regular season, he went over 13.5 yards in every game but one (Week 13 against the Ravens in which he finished with 8 receiving yards). If you’re wondering, he had 40 receiving yards on two receptions versus the Saints.
Here are the three Super Bowl 54 prop plays I like involving Raheem Mostert:
UNDER 15.5 Rush Attempts
OVER 1.5 Receptions (+120)
OVER 13.5 Receiving Yards (13.5)