Who Will Win Super Bowl 54 MVP?
Next weekend the Chiefs and 49ers will battle in Miami Gardens in Super Bowl 54 and one of the more popular prop predictions will be who will win the MVP. Who is the best bet, who offers value and which long shot makes most sense?
Which position usually wins Super Bowl MVP?
Before we dive into the options for Super Bowl 54, let’s first look at the history of the MVP. It probably comes as no surprise to know that the quarterback position has won the most Super Bowl MVP awards at 29. Running back and wide receiver have each produced seven Super Bowl MVPs, followed by linebacker with four. Defensive end and safety have each produced two Super Bowl MVPs apiece, followed by cornerback, defensive tackle and kick returner/punt returner at one apiece.
Last year, Patriots receiver Julian Edelman won the award after Tom Brady and Nick Foles (two quarterbacks) took home the hardware in 2017 and 2018, respectively. Linebacker Von Miller won Super Bowl MVP in 2017 and while Brady also won in 2015, another linebacker, Malcolm Smith of the Seahawks, won MVP in 2014.
While non-quarterbacks have taken home the MVP hardware in three of the last six Super Bowls, a quarterback has won in seven of the previous Bowls.
Best Bet: Patrick Mahomes +120
Mahomes is the favorite but at +120, there’s still some decent value in backing the Chiefs quarterback. Mahomes has had to be great this postseason, as the Chiefs trailed 24-0 to the Texans in the Divisional round and the Titans 17-7 in the second quarter of the AFC Championship Game. Mahomes put up four total touchdowns and 347 total yards in Kansas City’s comeback win last Sunday versus Tennessee and threw four touchdown passes alone in the second quarter of the Chiefs’ come-from-behind win over the Texans. Granted, to back Mahomes is also to back the Chiefs and if you don’t feel as though Kansas City will beat San Francisco, then the better play for you is Jimmy Garoppolo at 3/1.
Best Value: Raheem Mostert (8/1)
If Mostert some how rips off 200-plus rushing yards and four touchdowns like he did in the NFC Championship Game versus San Francisco, than the running back will have a golden opportunity to win SB54’s MVP. Tevin Coleman (shoulder) is expected to play but who knows how effective he will be after he was knocked out of the win over Green Bay in the first half. Mostert has the hot hand and offers great value at 8/1, especially if the 49ers win but Garoppolo doesn’t post eye-popping passing numbers. (He attempted only 8 passes against the Packers last Sunday, so that’s certainly feasible.)
Best Long Shot: George Kittle (15/1)
Okay, so 15/1 odds aren’t exactly the longest odds on the board. If you want a real long shot, check out Dawin Thompson at 200/1 or Harrison Butker at 100/1. That said, Kittle offers the best long shot value for a player that could realistically still win the MVP. Kansas City struggled versus tight ends this season, ranking 27th against the position according to fantasy football website 4for4.com. Kittle is projected to catch 6.6 passes according to the site, with 83.8 yards and 0.4 touchdowns. If you believe the game will be a shootout, then Mostert might not come close to making the same impact that he did in the NFC title game. Granted, a shootout might also mean that Garoppolo has a big game in a 49ers win, but that would be the case for Mahomes when considering Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce for MVP. Nevertheless, out of all the non-quarterbacks and Mostert, I like Kittle the best when it comes to players that could rip up the stat sheet in SB54.