Rams vs. Bucs Prediction
For the third time in the last two seasons, the Rams and Bucs will meet, only this time the stakes are higher. Will the Rams upset the Bucs for a third consecutive time or is Tampa Bay the best bet on the board as a 3-point home favorite?
315 Los Angeles Rams (+3) at 316 Tampa Bay Bucs (-3); o/u 48
3:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, January 23, 2022
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Los Angeles Rams DFS Spin
The Rams have a 52 percent pass rate since Week 15, the seventh lowest in the NFL over that span. Head coach Sean McVay has made a concerted effort to establish the run and lean heavily on the team's backs when game script allows. Perhaps spooked by Matthew Stafford's disastrous late-season decision making, McVay's offense has become one of the run-heaviest in the league over the past month. That wasn't always the case: LA's season-long pass rate of 59 percent ranks 11th in the NFL, and their pass rate over expectation was among the league's highest during the season's first month. The new approach has translated to hefty volume for Sony Michel -- who had 13 carries on Monday night against Arizona -- and Cam Akers, who led the team with 17 rushes in LA's Wild Card win. Akers, recently returned from a preseason Achilles tear, totaled 55 yards on the ground but had several long runs called back on penalties. Look for the Rams to once again go run heavy in the Divisional Round against Tampa, hiding Stafford as well as they can.
Tampa Bay Bucs DFS Spin
Bucs activated RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring) from injured reserve. Fournette will play in Sunday's Divisional game with the Rams after making it through the practice week without setbacks. It's a massive upgrade to a Bucs' run game that was forced to rely on Ke'Shawn Vaughn in the Wild Card round. Fournette has been sidelined since Week 15 but is expected to see his regular workload, with Gio Bernard likely spelling him on pass downs.
NFL Divisional Round Betting Prediction
The Rams have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games against the Bucs and are a perfect 5-0 against the number in their last five games at Raymond James Stadium. The Rams are also 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games as a road underdog, are 5-2 against the number in their last seven games overall and are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. On the other side, the Bucs are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven playoff games as a favorite and are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games coming off a win of more than 14 points.
NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND BETTING PREDICTIONS: LOS ANGELES RAMS +3