Patriots vs. Chargers Spread Prediction
Public bettors loved the L.A. Chargers last weekend when they upset the Ravens during Wild Card Weekend. Bettors are going back to the well with the Chargers on Sunday when they visit the Patriots in the Divisional round but is that a mistake?
305 Los Angeles Chargers at 306 New England Patriots
1:05 p.m. ET, Sunday, January 13, 2019
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Patriots are 4-point favorites to beat the Chargers. The total, meanwhile, sits at 47 points. As of this writing, 59% of the public betting tickets are on the Chargers to cover the point spread.
Los Angeles Chargers
Melvin Gordon (knee) wasn't listed on the Chargers' final injury report for Sunday's Divisional Round game against the Patriots. He practiced fully on Friday, prompting his removal from the injury report. Gordon's knees are both banged up, though he'll play through the pain Sunday in the most important game of his career. He carries more risk than usual playing at much less than 100 percent, though his reduced price on FanDuel ($7,400) makes him an interesting GPP play.
New England Patriots
According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, Patriots DC Brian Flores has emerged as the favorite for the Dolphins' head-coaching job. Obviously the Dolphins can't hire Flores until the Patriots wrap up their season, but it looks like he's in line to replace Adam Gase as Miami's next coach. Saints DC Dennis Allen, Chiefs OC Eric Bieniemy, Dolphins OC Dowell Loggains, Cowboys DBs coach/pass-game coordinator Kris Richard and Dolphins special teams coordinator Darren Rizzi also interviewed for the team's head-coaching vacancy. A former linebacker at Boston College, Flores has worked for the Patriots in some capacity since 2004. He only has one year of coordinating experience on his resume, though the 37-year-old is thought of as an up-and-comer and should help to shore up what was one of the league's worst defenses in 2018.
NFL Betting Trends
The Chargers are 5-1 against the spread in their last six playoff road games and are 35-17-2 against the number in their last 54 road games.
The Patriots have covered the spread in six of their last seven Divisional round playoff games and are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games coming off a win of more than 14 points.
Public bettors are foaming at the mouth to take the underdog Chargers again - and for good reason. They’re more talented and have better depth than the Patriots this season. The only reason they’ve been forced to play on the road in the first two weeks of the postseason is because they play in the same division as the juggernaut Chiefs. Philip Rivers has never beaten Tom Brady but he’s also never had a supporting cast that includes Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams, not to mention a defense as good as the one the Bolts currently employ.
As for the Patriots, they’re a shell of their former selves. Tom Brady did not finish the season playing at an elite level, injuries have finally taken their toll on Rob Gronkowski and their lone deep threat, Josh Gordon, is suspended. This New England defense isn’t as good as previous Bill Belichick-led defenses either. Why not take the four points with the better team?
NFL Divisional Round Predictions: Los Angeles Chargers +4