Vikings vs. 49ers Spread Prediction
The Vikings pulled off the biggest upset of Wildcard Weekend but are receiving little respect from oddsmakers for a second straight week. Listed as a 7-point underdog against the 49ers in the Divisional round on Saturday, will Minnesota at least cover?
301 Minnesota Vikings (+7) at 302 San Francisco 49ers (-7); o/u 44.5
4:35 p.m. ET, Saturday, January 11, 2020
Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Vikings are receiving 51% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Spin
ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reports Adam Thielen is expected to wear protective padding on his injured ankle in Saturday's Divisional Round game against the 49ers. Thielen was absent from Thursday's practice and isn't expected to do much ahead of Saturday's 4:35 PM ET kickoff after getting cleated on Wednesday. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported earlier Friday that the Vikings aren't sure how Thielen's ankle will "hold up" after receiving stitches. Thielen should suit up for Saturday's win-or-go-home Divisional Round contest, though how effective he'll be playing at less than 100 percent is up for debate.
San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Spin
49ers activated LB Kwon Alexander (pec) off injured reserve. The team placed DT Kentavius Street (knee) on injured reserve in a corresponding roster move. Alexander's return to the lineup is great news for the defense's chances of slowing down Dalvin Cook and company. The 49ers quietly allowed at least 100 rushing yards in 12-of-16 games this season. Alexander's presence is also bad news for Kyle Rudolph and company. The 49ers boast the type of freaky-athletic LBs in Alexander (PFF's No. 9 LB in coverage) and Fred Warner (No. 11) to force Kirk Cousins to have to work outside the numbers.
NFL Betting Trends
The Vikings are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games overall and have covered in five of their last seven road games as well.
The 49ers are just 6-19-1 against the spread in their last 26 games as a home favorite and are 6-19-1 at the betting window in their last 26 games when listed as a favorite.
Saturday home teams are 6-0 against the spread in the last three Divisional rounds but I’m going to buck that trend for the first game today. Since 2014, the 49ers are just 1-12-1 against the number as a favorite of at least six points, which includes a record of 0-6-1 against the number this season. Each of San Francisco’s last five games were decided by seven or fewer points and all had game-winning plays in the final 10 seconds. Also working against the Niners is the fact that quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is the 10th quarterback to make his postseason debut for the No. 1 seed. Under the current playoff format, the previous nine signal-callers are 4-5 outright, but just 2-7 against the spread. Meanwhile, the Vikings beat the Saints last week and Wildcard teams that are playing the following Saturday after playing on Sunday in the first week of the NFL playoffs are 18-12 against the spread all-time. The last two teams to win their games outright, the 2012 Ravens and 2010 Packers, both went on to win the Super Bowl. Minnesota proved last Sunday in New Orleans that if Dalvin Cook is in the starting lineup, Kirk Cousins is a different quarterback. If Minnesota’s offensive line can hold up, I like the Vikings to make things interesting today in Santa Clara.
NFL Divisional Round Playoff Prediction: Minnesota Vikings +7