Titans vs. Patriots Total Pick
Will Saturday night’s NFL Divisional Round Playoff matchup between the Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots turn into a shootout?
Matchup: Titans (10-7) at Patriots (13-3)
TV: CBS, 8:15 p.m. ET
Line: Patriots -13.5
ODDS: According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the over/under currently sits at 48 points after the number hit the board at 47. The Patriots, meanwhile, are a 13.5-point home favorite to beat the Titans, who also hit the board at 13.5.
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PUBLIC BETTING: As of this writing, the Patriots are receiving 72% of the betting tickets but only 52% of the money to cover the spread. Meanwhile, 57% of the betting tickets are on the over and 54% of the money on this game is also on the over.
INJURY REPORT: DeMarco Murray has already been ruled out for the Titans with a knee injury. Murray also missed last week’s come-from-behind victory over the Chiefs in the Wild Card round.
As for the Patriots, Alan Branch (knee) is probable but both Kyle Van Noy (calf) and Chris Hogan (shoulder) are questionable.
OUR PREDICTION: The over has been a great bet in this series, cashing in four of the last five meetings in New England. The over has also been an excellent play when the Patriots play in the Divisional Round, going 7-0-1 in their last Divisional Round matchups. The over is 6-0 in the Pats’ last six playoff home games, is 4-1 in their last five games played in January, and is 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
The concern is whether or not the Titans can contribute enough to push the score over the total. Tennessee needs to stick with the run like it did a week ago in Kansas City. New England is 30th in run defense DVOA and if the Titans can lean on Derrick Henry and limit possessions for Tom Brady, that’s the only shot Tennessee has to pull off a big upset.
Nevertheless, I think the Patriots get into the high-20s and I wouldn’t rule out the Titans scoring 20 or so points themselves. The over is 5-2 in the Titans’ last seven road games when facing a team with a winning home record.
NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND OVER/UNDER PREDICTION: TITANS/PATRIOTS OVER 48