Bills vs. Jaguars Prediction

NFL Predictions: Will Jaguars cover double-digit spread vs. Bills? 1/7/18

Will the Jacksonville Jaguars boat race the Buffalo Bills this afternoon when the two teams meet in the Wild Card round of the NFL playoffs? Kickoff is set for 1:05 p.m. ET.

WHO ODDSMAKERS LIKE: Jacksonville. According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Jaguars are 8.5-point home favorites to beat the Bills, who opened as 7.5-point underdogs. As for the total, the number hit the board at 40 but has been bet down slightly to 39.5.

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WHO PUBLIC BETTORS LIKE: Jacksonville. As of this writing, the Jaguars are receiving 52% of the betting tickets and 57% of the money to cover the spread.

WHO THE TRENDS: Buffalo and the over. The Bills are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games in Jacksonville while the road team is also 5-2 at the betting window in the last seven meetings between these two teams. The over is also a perfect 5-0 in the last five meetings between these two teams.

WHO WE LIKE: Jacksonville. This is a total mismatch to me. Some bettors are fading a Blake Bortles-led team, which is understandable. But the Jags won a lot of games this season by basically circumventing Bortles and that should be the case again today.

For starters, the Bills allowed a NFL-worst 18 rushing touchdowns since trading Marcell Dareus prior to Week 8. They’re allowing a whopping 148.7 yards per game during that stretch, which is the second-most in the league. Thus, if Leonard Fournette is tearing up Buffalo’s front seven Bortles won’t have to do much.

Furthermore, if LeSean McCoy (ankle, questionable) is less than 100% of doesn’t play, I don’t see how the Bills score. McCoy was responsible for 33 percent of his team’s scrimmage yards, which was the second-highest percentage in the league behind the Rams’ Todd Gurley (36%).

This is how I see this game playing out: The Bills won’t be able to run, the Jaguars will grab a lead, then suffocate Tyrod Taylor in the second half. He was sacked on 9.1% of his dropbacks this season, the second-highest percentage in the league behind the Colts’ Jacoby Brissett (9.3%).

 

NFL WILD CARD PREDICTION: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -8.5

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