Bills vs. Texans Total Prediction
The first game of NFL Wildcard Weekend pits the No. 5 seed versus the No. 4 seed in Houston where the Texans will host the Bills at 4:35 p.m. ET on Saturday. When it comes to the total, what’s the best bet for handicappers given the matchup?
141 Buffalo Bills (+2.5) at 142 Houston Texans (-2.5); O/U 44
4:35 p.m. ET, Saturday, January 4
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
According to our NFL Public Betting Chart page, the Bills are drawing 57% of the betting tickets ahead of Saturday’s game.
Buffalo Bills Fantasy Spin
Bills CB Levi Wallace (ankle) is questionable for Saturday's Wild Card game against the Texans. DE Shaq Lawson (hamstring), OT Ty Nsekhe (ankle) and WR Andre Roberts (foot) also drew questionable tags for Saturday's playoff opener. All are tentatively expected to play after receiving limited practice reps this week. Wallace was arguably the weak link in Buffalo's secondary this year, yielding five touchdowns in coverage while garnering PFF's No. 71 grade out of 128 positional qualifiers at cornerback.
Houston Texans Fantasy Spin
Coach Bill O'Brien said DT J.J. Watt (pec) will "be in there quite a bit" for the Texans' Wild Card matchup against the Bills. Watt's presence is great news for the Texans' chances at slowing down Devin Singletary and company. The Bills have fed their talented rookie RB at least 15 touches in six consecutive games. The problem is that the pass-game usage has been inconsistent, and Allen's aforementioned status as the league's biggest vulture other than Taysom Hill makes it tough to expect much from Singletary in the scoring department.
The under is 6-1 in the Bills’ last seven games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
The under is 20-6 in the Texans’ last 26 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
In the last five meetings between these two teams, the under is a near-perfect 4-1. The under is also 8-2 in the Texans’ last 10 games as a home favorite, is 7-2 in their last nine games when favored and is 21-10 in their last 31 conference matchups. On the other side, the under has cashed in five of the Bills’ last six games overall, is 19-7 in their last 26 games when they’re an underdog and is 35-16 in their last 51 games as a road dog. Given how both of these teams like to play a time of possession game offensively, as well as some of the talent on both defenses (namely Buffalo’s), the under is the best play on the board when it comes to the total.
NFL WILD CARD WEEKEND PREDICTION: BILLS/TEXANS UNDER 44