NBA Predictions: Pelicans laying too many points vs. Mavericks? 3/20/18

Mavericks vs. Pelicans Prediction

Are the New Orleans Pelicans laying too many points to the Dallas Mavericks tonight at 8:00 p.m. ET?

Game Snapshot

(653) Dallas Mavericks at (654) New Orleans Pelicans

Monday, March 20, 2018

TV: N/A, 8:00 p.m. ET

CURRENT ODDS

According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook YouWager, the Pelicans are 8.5-point home favorites to upend the Mavericks while the over/under sits at 219.5 points for tonight's game.

Bet This Matchup & Other NBA Games

LINE MOVEMENT

The Pelicans opened as 9-point home favorites but the line has been bet down to 8.5 at the majority of online sportsbooks. As for the total, it hit the board at 218.5 but was bet up a full point to 219.5.

PUBLIC BETTING

As of this writing, 59% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Pelicans to cover the point spread. Meanwhile, 53% of the betting tickets are currently on the under.

KEY INJURY TO WATCH

Dennis Smith Jr. (ankle) is out for the Mavericks and so is Wesley Matthews (leg). On the other side, you know about DeMarcus Cousins (Achilles, out for the year), and Frank Jackson (foot) and Alexis Ajinca (knee) are both out as well.

BETTING STRATEGY

This is too many points, even with Dallas being banged up. The Mavericks are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games playing on two days of rest, are 6-2 against the number in their last eight games versus a team with a winning record, and are 19-7-2 at the betting window in their last 28 road games when facing an opponent with a winning home record. On the other side, the Pelicans are just 3-8 at the betting window in their last 11 home games versus the Mavericks while the road team is a perfect 4-0 against the number in the last four meetings between these two teams.

 

OUR PREDICTION: DALLAS MAVERICKS +8.5