UFC Fight Night 40
By Sportsbook.ag
Event: UFC Fight Night 40
Date: May 10, 2014
Venue: U.S. Bank Arena
City: Cincinnati, Ohio
Welterweight Bout - Matt Brown (20-11) vs. Erick Silva (16-4)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Silva -205, Brown +167
Matt Brown and Erick Silva square off against each other as the main event at UFC Fight Night 41 in Cincinnati on Saturday.
Brown has been on a tear as of late, winning his past six matches. In his last win against Mike Pyle on Aug. 17, Brown showed that he is still a threat in the welterweight class. Brown delivered a vicious knockout victory, finishing the match in only 29 seconds with a 10-0 striking advantage. Brown is a terrific fighter that has the ability to be downright vicious with his punches. What makes him even more dangerous is his ability to take a punch as well. He is the type of fighter that wants to turn the match into a brawl. That style will differ from the style of Erick Silva, who is looking to get his opponent to the ground. Silva got back on the winning track in his last match against Takenori Sato on Feb. 15. In that fight, Silva delivered a knockout in only 52 seconds, something completely out of the norm for him. Silva held an 18-0 striking advantage in that victory.
The 29-year-old Silva has 16 victories in his career, with nine of those wins coming by submission. He also has four wins by knockout and three by decision, showing he can win in a variety of ways. While Silva's 0.98 takedown average does not compare to Brown's 1.71 mark, he is much more accurate in his takedown attempts at 67%, compared to Brown's 46% accuracy. Silva is a gifted athlete that has uses his speed to get his opponents to the ground. He is also in terrific shape, allowing him to go the distance if needed without getting tired. The Brazilian has trained in the past with some elite MMA fighters in Anderson Silva, Jacare Souza, Team Nogueira and Rafael Cavalcante. For Silva to get the win in this match, he has to use his quickness and try and wear down Brown. If Silva allows the fight to turn into a brawl, he is ripe for the big upset.
Brown enters the match with 20 career victories, with 12 of them coming by way of knockout. He also has six victories by submission and just two by decision, as he has gone the distance just four times in his career. It is no secret that Brown loves to get into a fight where a lot of punches are being thrown, and he will have a huge advantage in this area with 3.62 significant strikes landed per minute, compared to only 2.83 for Silva. Another big advantage in this fight for the 33-year-old Brown will be his ability to defend against the takedown, as he has a 67% takedown defense, compared to 62% for Silva. Brown will also have the Cincinnati crowd in his favor, as he grew up in Xenia, OH and currently fights out of Columbus, OH. Both of these fighters, who both stand 6-foot-0 and weigh 170 pounds, are going to be looking to dictate the fight from the very beginning. If Brown is able to turn the match into a striking battle, he will be in great shape to get the win.
Middleweight Bout - Costas Philippou (12-4) vs. Lorenz Larkin (14-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Larkin -245, Philippou +197
Two knockout artists square off at UFC Fight Night on Saturday night, as Costas Philippou and Lorenz Larkin enter the Octagon in Cincinnati.
Philippou will look to get back on track, as he enters this fight on a two-match losing skid. In his last fight on Jan. 15, he was knocked out in the first round by Luke Rockhold. In that bout, Rockhold was able to deliver a vicious leg kick to help get the victory. Philippou also lost a tough match to Francis Carmont at UFC 165 on Sept. 21 by way of unanimous decision. While he enters Saturday's fight with two consecutive defeats, Philippou is still a dangerous opponent with vicious knockout ability. Like Philippou, Larkin has been scuffling with two losses in his past three fights, including when he fell to Brad Tavares by unanimous decision on Jan. 15. He also has a loss to Carmont by way of unanimous decision on April 20, 2013, but preceding that fight on July 14, 2012, Larkin scored a resume-building victory against a terrific fighter in Robbie Lawler.
"The Monsoon" Larkin has 14 victories in his career, with eight of them coming by way of knockout, and six of those KOs occurring in the first round. His other six victories come by way of decision. Larkin has shown the ability to drop his opponent with one punch, and he will have an advantage in this matchup in terms of landing significant strikes per minute (3.05 for Larkin, 2.37 for Philippou) and the accuracy of his fists (44% for Larkin, 36% from Philippou). Larkin is also a better punch defender at 64.8% (Philippou is 58%). The 27-year-old out of Riverside, CA does a great job of punching with a purpose, picking the perfect opportunity to deliver his strikes instead of just flailing away. He is also in terrific shape, which allows Larkin to beat on his opponent and wear him down for the victory. In this matchup, he will be going up against a fighter that also likes to throw strikes and has an identical frame of 5-foot-11 and 185 pounds, which should make for a terrific bout.
Philippou has 12 victories in his career, with six of those victories coming by way of knockout. He also has five wins by decision and one by submission. In his last victory against Tim Boetsch on Dec. 29, 2012, Philippou showed his knockout ability by delivering big-time hits to help him win the match in the third round. This wasn't too surprising considering Philippou was a former pro boxer. Like Larkin, the 34-year-old who hails from Limassol Cyprusk, wants to stand up and throw strikes. While Philippou does not land as many strikes as Larkin, he is a very confident fighter that will come into this match thinking he will win. Both opponents want the exact same style of a boxing match, so it will come down to which one is able to connect with his fists when the opportunity arises. If the match does wind up on the mat, Philippou has a slight advantage in takedown average (0.48 to 0.29), but both men defend takedowns pretty well (Larkin 79%, Philippou 73%).
UFC Fight Night 40 - Other Bouts
Welterweight Matchup
Albert Tumenov -190
Anthony Lapsley +155
Lightweight Matchup
Justin Salas -270
Ben Wall +212
Featherweight Matchup
Nik Lentz -450
Manny Gamburyan +325
Bantamweight Matchup
Eddie Wineland -475
Johnny Eduardo +350
Welterweight Matchup
Yan Cabral -330
Zak Cummings +250
Flyweight Matchup
Kyoji Horiguchi -190
Darrel Montague +155
Middleweight Matchup
Rafael Natal -135
Ed Herman +105
Lightweight Matchup
Erik Koch -350
Daron Cruickshank +270
Welterweight Matchup
Tim Means -295
Neil Magny +230
Heavyweight Matchup
Soa Palelei -245
Ruan Potts +197
Flyweight Matchup
Chris Cariaso -115
Louis Smolka -115
UFC Odds and Picks
By: Hugh Citron
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS -- UFC Fight Night comes to us Saturday from Cincinnati, Ohio, with a welterweight battle between Erick Silva and Matt Brown (Fox Sports 1, 10 p.m. ET). Silva, ranked 14th in the division, is a -230 favorite over Brown, who – despite his No. 7 ranking – is the +190 underdog.
Silva (16-4, 1 NC) came into the UFC in 2011 with tremendous hype after dominating the Jungle Fight promotion in Brazil and holding its welterweight championship belt. Since debuting in the UFC with a quick, 40-second KO over Luis Ramos, Silva has gone just 3-3 since, alternating wins and losses.
His last fight, however, was a nice 52-second KO stoppage over Takenori Sato. Also, one of his losses can be tossed out for handicapping purposes, as he was DQ'd in a fight he had won against Carlo Prater for punching the back of his opponent’s head.
The big knock against Silva? In his two fights against top-level opponents, he's come up short. One was a unanimous-decision loss to always-tough Jon Fitch in October 2012, which earned Fight of the Night honors. In October 2013, he was KO'd in the second round by “Stun Gun," Dong Hyun Kim, now a top contender in the division himself.
Silva’s next opponent, Matt Brown (18-11), is on a six-fight win streak, the last four of which have come by KO. Brown has always been a serviceable fighter, meaning not necessarily a title contender but a tough matchup for anyone trying to move up the ranks. You won't find too many big names on Brown's recent resume, but don't sell him short – you can beat only who they put in front of you.
Before Brown’s winning streak began, he lost four of his previous five fights, setting him way back in the division. But in UFC, you can move up the ranks quickly with the right wins – and this is certainly is a big opportunity for Brown.
This is a huge bout for both fighters, and a loss could pretty much end their main event status for quite a while.
While the matchup is pretty even on paper, look for Brown to come out very aggressively and take it to Silva early. Silva might be priced a little high here, so taking Brown at almost 2-1 is an attractive play..