UFC 207 Best Bets
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Former women’s bantamweight champion ‘Rowdy’ Ronda Rousey is poised to make her return to the Octagon on Friday night in the UFC 207 headliner at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Rousey will take on Amanda Nunes, who became the third different woman to win the belt formerly held by Rousey when the Brazilian dusted Miesha Tate by first-round knockout at UFC 200 this past summer.
Rousey opened as a -280 favorite when the fight was announced in October. The number moved down into the -185 range within 7-10 days. In November, many spots moved down to -160 and in the last week, the number has steadily declined. As of Thursday afternoon, 5Dimes.eu had Rousey at -140, leaving the champ at +120.
Most books had the total at 1.5 rounds (‘under’ -220, ‘over’ +190). For Rousey to win by submission, the proposition bet will pay out a +125 return (risk $100 to win $125). For the former champ to win in Round 1, there’s a +150 payout available.
Nunes (13-4 MMA, 6-1 UFC) took her only UFC loss to Cat Zingano by third-round TKO at UFC 178 more than two years ago. She brings a four-fight winning streak into this contest.
Rousey (12-1 MMA, 6-1 UFC) had never tasted defeat and was the only women’s champion in UFC history until facing Holly Holm 13 months ago at UFC 193 in Melbourne, Australia. But Holm brought an end to her reign, dominating Rousey from start to finish before scoring a brutal head-kick KO early in the second round.
Since then, Rousey has kept an extremely low profile, making a few national appearances on talk shows and shooting the movie Road House. She hasn’t faced the MMA media once, however, not even during the buildup to Friday’s main event.
This is a first in UFC history. No fighter has ever been allowed to spurn the media in the promotion of a pay-per-view event, and President Dana White has stated that this will be the last time it happens.
As White explained at a media scrum Wednesday, Rousey has done more promotional work for the company than any other fighter ever. This, he claims, is why he’s allowed her this one-time exception.
Prediction: I was able to get down on Nunes at +180 in October. I felt Rousey melted at the staredown following the UFC 205 weigh-ins at MSG in NYC. You never know how a fighter will respond after suffering a brutal and violent loss. I will say that Rousey looked great when she tipped the scales at 135 pounds Thursday morning. She’s clearly in outstanding physical shape. But what about her mental state? You have to be ‘all in’ in mixed martial arts. She’s been that way for this training camp, but not for the majority of the last 13 months. And what about her relationship with Travis Browne? Is she thinking about kicking ass or having his children? Is she more excited about her acting career or dealing out armbars? She’s said “this is definitely one of her last fights.” That sounds to me like she has one foot out of the door already. That’s not good. I like Nunes for three units at a +130 price (Sportsbook.ag). I think she wins by late first-round KO.
In the co-main event, bantamweight kingpin Dominick Cruz will take on rising star Cody ‘No Love’ Garbrandt for the 135-pound strap. As of late Thursday afternoon, most spots had Cruz installed as a -210 favorite, leaving Garbrandt at +190. The total was 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -215, ‘under’ +185).
Prediction: I think Garbrandt is an absolute star. He has a 10-0 career record, including a 5-0 mark in the UFC. He has won four of his five UFC fights by KO, including three in a row in the first round. He handed Thomas Almeida the first loss of his career in May and then needed only 48 seconds to KO Takeya Mizugaki. Cruz certainly has a difficult style to deal with, but Garbrandt will find him and when he does, he’s going to put him to sleep with his hands. I’ve never seen a 135er with the sort of one-punch KO power that Garbrandt has. He’ll win by first-round KO and nobody should be surprised when it happens. Give me four units on Garbrandt for the +190 return. Also, let’s go with a one-unit play on the prop for Garbrandt to win in Round 1 for the +550 return. Finally, let’s go with one unit on ‘under’ 2.5 rounds for the +185 payout. Johny ‘Big Rigg’ Hendricks missed weight yet again Thursday, which will likely prompt his release from the UFC by Monday. He came in at 173.5 pounds, 2.5 pounds over the 171-pound limit for non-title welterweight scraps.
Hendricks’s demise since winning the welterweight title has been rapid. After narrowly winning a unanimous decision to win the strap against Robbie Lawler, Hendricks lost the belt by losing a split decision to Lawler in the rematch. Since then, he won a UD over Matt Brown before losing by first-round KO to Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson.
In his last outing at UFC 200, Hendricks missed weight and then lost a UD to Kelvin Gastelum. When Hendricks stepped on the scale Thursday morning, he buried his face in his hands while waiting for the announcement of his weight. He already had the look of defeat written all over him. One report indicated that Hendricks was heard screaming at his nutritionist about 30 minutes before the weigh-in deadline.
Remember, this is the guy that battered Georges St. Pierre around for five rounds before being robbed of a decision just three years ago. I’ve often been asked about Hendricks’s dramatic decline. I say the same thing every time: “That’s what will happen to any fighter who has to spend 50 minutes inside of a cage with ‘Ruthless’ Robbie Lawler.”
Rory MacDonald was tabbed as a future champion several years ago. He only spent seven rounds and one minute of another in the Octagon with Lawler, and look where he is now.
Anyway, Hendricks faces Neil Magny on Friday night. That’s where his career is unfortunately going to hit rock bottom. Magny is 10-2 since February of 2014 and he’s in bounce-back mode after a loss to Lorenz Larkin.
Prediction: Give me Magny for two units at the -130 price.
UFC 207 Betting Preview: Nunes vs Rousey, Cruz vs Garbrandt
By MMAOddsBreaker..com
Amanda Nunes (+123) vs Ronda Rousey (-139)
Amanda Nunes, the 28-year-old Brazil-born bantamweight, enters her first UFC women’s bantamweight title defense on a four-fight winning streak. Nunes last fought in July 2017 when she headlined UFC 200 and defeated Miesha Tate to become the promotion’s champion at 135 pounds.
Ronda Rousey, the longtime UFC women’s bantamweight champion, defended her title belt five consecutive times prior to facing Holly Holm at UFC 193. Holm dethroned Rousey with a head kick and follow-up strikes to give Rousey her first professional defeat. This is Rousey’s first fight since her loss to Holm in November 2015.
This title clash is a really interesting matchup for two key reasons.
The first reason is that both fighters are fast starters and tend to slow down quickly in their fights. Nunes is certainly the better stand-up striker with better hands. She will be looking to keep this fight on the feet and score early in this bout. The polar opposite is true for Rousey. While she can throw on the feet, she has a major advantage on the ground against any of her opponents. Her armbar technique is right at the top of the sport when it comes to effective submission technique. If she can get Nunes to the ground, she has a very good chance to end the fight and do so early. Both fighters have the ability to implement their game plans and succeed in winning the fight utilizing their strengths: Nunes by knockout and Rousey by submission.
The second reason this fight is extremely intriguing comes down to Rousey’s mentality for this bout. Rousey hasn’t fought in over 12 months. After her loss to Holm, she struggled to talk to the media and share her thoughts on the fight. She is a fighter that excels when confident but really struggles when things get difficult. The Holm loss was difficult for her, as it was the first time she faced real adversity in MMA. One has to wonder if she’s ready for this bout. Her unwillingness to do interviews and promote the fight like other Pay-Per-View main event fighters have done presents further questions about her readiness. Nunes is a fighter that requires Rousey’s full preparation.
Nunes is as dangerous an opponent that Rousey has faced. Nunes is slightly bigger than Rousey and physically won’t be intimidated by her opponent. If Nunes is able to land anything early in this bout, things may not go well for the former champion.
Dominick Cruz (-211) vs Cody Garbrandt (+185)
Dominick Cruz is one of the best fighters in all of MMA and looks to continue his reign at the top of the bantamweight division. Cruz has won all five of his fights in the UFC. 2016 has been defined by his battle with Team Alpha Male. He’s already beaten TJ Dillashaw and Urijah Faber, and he is now looking to beat Garbrandt to give him a clean sweep over one of the top fight team’s in the sport.
Cody Garbrandt, the Ohio born and raised fighter, was a high school wrestling standout, winning a state championship in his freshman year. Garbrandt has been fighting professionally for about four years. He has won all 10 fights in his professional career and enters his first UFC title fight off a quick knockout of veteran Takeya Mizugaki.
Cruz looks to extend his winning streak to nearly 10 years when he takes on undefeated title challenger Garbrandt at UFC 207. Cruz has made a career of beating Team Alpha Male fighters. His movement is difficult to decipher, and his ability to fight a consistent pace over 25 minutes makes him very difficult to beat.
Garbrandt is going to struggle in this regard. Despite being in a position to fight for a UFC championship, he simply doesn’t have the experience to deal with Cruz’s unorthodox movement. Garbrandt has very good hands, but he’s a fighter that tends to excel against fighters that lack good head movement and are rather stationary targets.
Cruz will implement a strong game plan where he will be able to land strikes and get out of range before Garbrandt is able to throw punches. Garbrandt will be swinging at a lot of air in this bout. Look for Cruz to put on a consistent performance over the course of five rounds, winning a clear decision on the scorecards. Cruz is too quick, too clever and too experienced for Garbrandt. Given that Cruz is not a power striker, the best bet to consider for this fight is Cruz by Decision (+134). This is a fight he should win, and do so rather convincingly, so it shouldn't be close on the scorecards.