Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for from various handicappers and websites for Wednesday 4/17/19
RBC Heritage - Matchup Bets
April 17, 2019
By Joe Williams
The PGA TOUR heads south to the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links on Hilton Head Island, S.C.
PRIME MATCHUPS
Each week we'll take a look at the best round matchups to try and build up a nice bankroll.
Si Woo Kim (-105) vs. Marc Leishman (-115): Kim has made two career appearances at Harbour Town, and he has been good at this event. He was 14th in the 2016 installment, and he lost in a playoff last season to Satosi Kohaira. As such, he is a tremendous option in a matchup against Leishman, who missed the cut last season, was 44th at the event in 2017, and 30th in 2016.
Jim Furyk (-125) vs. Matthew Fitzpatrick (-105): Furyk has made 13 appearances at Harbour Town since the 2005 season, missing the cut just three times. During that span he has won this event twice, finished as a runner-up on two other occasions and he has been eighth or better in seven of those 13 showings. Not many golfers know this course better than Furyk, and he'll shine head-to-head against the inexperienced Fitzpatrick.
Sungjae Im (-105) vs. Jason Kokrak (-125): Kokrak might be the golfer with a slightly better pedigree in this matchup, but he has had a devil of a time trying to solve Harbour Town lately. In three appearances from 2014-16 he was 18th or better, including a sixth-place run in 2016. However, he has missed the cut in each of his past two outings at Harbour Town, and he hasn't been terribly effective anywhere else on the circuit this season, either.
Last event (Masters): 3-3 (-25)
This season: 11-11-2 (-75)
OTHER BETS
Top 20 Finish - Dustin Johnson (-330): Johnson is heavy chalk to finish in the Top 20, but he should be good to go in this event against a field with a decent amount of stars, but one where he should shine brightest.
Top 20 Finish - Jim Furyk (+135): Furyk has the course history which is very good, and he has the even temperament to get the job done as well.
Top 20 Finish - Si Woo Kim (+155): As mentioned above, Kim doesn't have a very long course history at Harbour Town, but he has finished 14th and second in two starts. That includes his runner-up finish from a season ago. Look for Kim to shine yet again on Hilton Head Island.
Last week: 5-1 (+450)
This season: 12-15 (+92)
RBC Heritage Classic
Harbour Town Golf Links – Par 71 – 7,100 yards
After a thrilling week at Augusta National that saw Tiger Woods win his first Major in 11 years, the golf world is forced to collect their breath as the Tour goes on. Seeing how star-studded The Masters leaderboard was on the weekend, and to have a guy as immensely popular as Tiger Woods come out of the pack and look like he turned the clock back 10+ years is a moment golf fans/bettors will likely never forget. Yet, every week on Tour is another chance for someone to make a million, as this week we've got the RBC Heritage on the docket.
This is a tournament that managed to keep it's traditional spot on the schedule this year post-Masters, and it's an event that has brought some interesting results in recent years. The last two winners of this event – Satoshi Kodaira and Wesley Bryan – both managed to win in their first go around at Harbour Town, and only Bryan can count himself among the past six winners here that did not tee it up at Augusta the week prior.
Of those five recent winners that did see action at Augusta that year, only Matt Kuchar (T5) in 2014 was able to finish better than 54th at Augusta and go on to win the next week at Heritage, so riding some of the guys that were hot last week may not be the best option. Three of those five winners actually missed the cut at Augusta the week prior – at an event where it's actually hard to miss the cut in terms of sheer numbers – so keep those trends in mind when you are breaking down this field.
In terms of the field at the Heritage, there are some big names here, with Dustin Johnson (+750) leading the way in terms of the odds. Behind DJ we've got Francesco Molinari (+1400), Xander Schauffele (+1800), Bryson DeChambeau (+2000) and Patrick Cantlay (+2000) as the only other golfers listed at +2000 or lower, but the next tier consists of Jordan Spieth, Matt Kuchar, Tommy Fleetwood, and Webb Simpson all priced at +2200.
Of those names, Kuchar has a win and four Top 15's here since 2009, playing this event every season and never missing the cut. Cantlay and Dechambeau have liked what they've seen from Harbour Town in their brief appearances, with Bryson sporting a 3rd, 4th and MC her the past three years, and Cantlay having a 3rd and 7th on his resume from this event. Those are the only three at the top I believe are worthy of serious consideration, but there isn't a whole lot of value in any of these top guys at these prices.
In regards to the course, this is a track that forces guys to put a premium on accuracy, as it's a shorter Pete Dye design that has all the characteristics of a Dye design with water and sand being prominent hazards. It's fitting that this is played after the Masters too in the sense that you need to be able to hit the right spots both off the tee and in the approach (or miss in the right spots), and just going back through the list of winners here, you'll quickly understand how important the approach game is at Harbour Town.
Wesley Bryan, Kuchar, Jim Furyk (twice), Graeme McDowell and Brandt Snedeker have all won here this decade, and those guys are known to be guys who can toss lasers in with their irons when they are on. Heck, even a guy like Luke Donald who's more of an approach guy has four runner-up finishes here this decade (five since 2009), so keying in on guys who's strongest part of their game is in the approach is a great place to start as well.
And while I do believe it may be best to wait for some in-play action on some of the top names in this event to potentially get them at a better price in a comeback role on the weekend, there are three guys with odds in the middle of the pack this week that I've already supported this week.
Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag
Golfers to Watch
Charles Howell III (50/1) – Howell isn't the first name on the board many think of when discussing a course that puts a premium on the approach game, as statistically in all of the Strokes Gained categories this year it's his worst by far (90th on Tour). But when everything else ranks 34th or better, including 8th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Total, and 14th in Strokes Gained: Putting, Howell should find a way to be relevant come Sunday.
In terms of specific course history here, Howell's finished in the 50's here the past two years and hasn't been better than 22nd since 2009, but on a track that does emphasize accuracy over length, it's hard to ignore a pure ball striker like this guy. He's not a guy that's known for closing out wins throughout his career (three career wins), but he did get back in the winner's circle in November, and at this price he's hard to ignore.
Sungjae Im (50/1) – Im has busted onto the scene this year after dominating the Web.com Tour last season, and there aren't really any holes in his game from a ball striking perspective. A sometimes cold putter and this being his maiden voyage at Harbour Town can be considered 'knocks' on Im this week, but the last two winners did win their first try here, and Im's got quite a bit more natural talent than Kodaira and Bryan in my opinion.
Im is a top 30 guy in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach, and if that translates into some great looks at birdie throughout his rounds, then getting on the ride side of that streaky putter of his could be more likely. As a first timer I can understand some hesitation with a play like this, but when that's been the case for the last two winners, and other guys cut from similar ilk like Dechambeau, Cantlay, and Ollie Schniederjans all have Top 4 or better finishes in their first go around at the Heritage in recent years, Im could be another name to add to that list.
Russell Knox (66/1) – Knox is a guy with plenty of experience here, and while his recent form has been slipping of late, he's still had four Top 25's in his last eight starts. At the Heritage, Knox owns a 2nd, 9th, 11th, 18th, and 40th place finishes on his resume in the last five years, and considering he comes into this event ranked 14th on Tour in the SG: Approach category, there is plenty to like about him at this price.
Not playing any event the past two weeks may be exactly the rest Knox needed with his results slipping, and returning to a place where he's been in the thick of things in four of the past five years on Sundays, a 66-1 price tag could make for a nice payday.