Weekly European Soccer Betting Analysis
By: Monty Andrews
Covers.com
The busy and exciting world of European soccer can sometimes be difficult to navigate for bettors. Monty Andrews takes a look at some of the most important news stories, odds, key injuries, and betting trends to help with your footy wagers.
Fixture of the Week: Valencia v. Barcelona
The top two teams in La Liga will square off this Sunday when Valencia host Barcelona at Mestalla Stadium. Valencia are installed as a +300 underdog as they look to close the four-point gap between themselves and Barcelona (-118), which is coming off a 0-0 draw with Juventus in Champions League action. Valencia continued its red-hot run with a 1-0 road victory over Espaynol. This one is a real clash of the titans, with Valencia having won their previous eight league matches and Barcelona prevailing in 18 of their last 19 La Liga tilts. The teams also lead the table in goals, with Barcelona at 33 and Valencia just one back.
Liverpool Letdown
The shock is still palatable for Liverpool fans, who hope to see their club bounce back from a humbling Champions League draw as they welcome Chelsea to Anfield in Premier League action. The Reds broke out to a 3-0 lead against Sevilla on Tuesday, only to watch the La Liga club storm back to earn a 3-3 tie. On the positive side: Liverpool have won three straight league matches to move into the top five in the table, and are slight +115 favorites for Saturday's encounter with the Blues (+230). Chelsea have overcome their early struggles and have reeled off four consecutive Premier League victories
Dismal Dortmund
Nothing has gone right for Borussia Dortmund, who were the toast of the Bundesliga but are now just toast as they look to halt a five-game Bundesliga winless skid this weekend against visiting Schalke. Dortmund (-138) have fallen from first to fifth in the table with losses in four of their last five games - and if that weren't bad enough, they're coming off a 2-1 defeat at the hands of EPL side Tottenham in Champions League play. Schalke (+333) are headed in the opposite direction, having gone unbeaten their last six league games while surrendering just two goals over that stretch.
Juve Looking Ahead?
Juventus are gearing up for a pivotal encounter with Napoli - but first, they have to be careful not to look past this weekend's tilt with Crotone. Juve (-700) are looking to regroup from a 3-2 defeat at Sampdoria, and can build on the momentum of their 0-0 tie with Barcelona in their Champions League encounter earlier this week. Crotone are hanging perilously close to the Serie A relegation zone, sitting just three point clear after last week's defeat vs. visiting Genoa. Juventus dominated the head-to-head series a season ago, winning their two encounters while recording clean sheets in both.
Team News
West Bromwich has pulled the plug on Tony Pulis following last week's humiliating 4-0 defeat against Chelsea. West Brom has oust four consecutive English Premier League matches; it's a +1,100 underdog this weekend at Tottenham (-400).
Barcelona has lost its appeal of a Gerard Pique yellow card and will be without the veteran star for this weekend's pivotal encounter with Valencia. Pique was shown a yellow in Saturday's 3-0 win at Leganes.
Bayern Munich is reportedly set to get Robert Lewandowski some help up front, as they negotiate to sign gifted striker Sandro Wagner. Wagner has four goals and two assists in nine appearances for Hoffenheim.
Udinese has hired Massimo Oddo as their manager, replacing the departing Luigi Delneri. Oddo will look to turn things around for Udinese, who are three points above the relegation zone and are +700 on Bet365 to prevail against visiting Napoli (-300).
Injury Updates
Manchester City centre-back John Stones will miss a month with a hamstring injury suffered against Leicester city last weekend. His injury is a blow to City, which is a heavy -600 on Bet365 against host Huddersfield (+1,400).
Real Madrid will likely be without captain Sergio Ramos this weekend after he suffered a broken nose against Atletico Madrid. But La Liga's third-place team should be okay without him this week, installed at -1,200 against visiting Malaga (+2,000).
Thiago Alcantara has been lost for the next few months after suffering a thigh injury in Bayern Munich's 2-1 win over Anderlecht. It's a major blow for the Bundesliga leaders, who are -225 for this weekend's game against Borussia Monchengladbach.
Juventus defender Giorgio Chiellini is expected to sit out this weekend's clash with Crotone even if he has recovered from his thigh injury. Coach Massimiliano Allegri wants to keep Chiellini fresh for next week's pivotal encounter with Napoli.
Betting Trends
Swansea and visiting Bournemouth have gone over the 2.5-goal total in each of their previous four EPL meetings at Liberty Stadium. They're listed at +115 on Bet365 to make it five overs in a row in this weekend's encounter.
Sevilla have been losing at half- and full-time in each of their previous three La Liga matches. Bettors on Bet365 will get +275 odds on Villarreal leading at both half- and full-time as they host Sevilla over the weekend.
Freiburg have gone under the 2.5-goal total in seven of their last eight matches, while Mainz has done the same in six of their previous seven tilts. The teams are -125 to score two or fewer combined goals this Saturday.
Roma have been a solid second-half team of late, drawing at half and winning at full-time in each of their past three matches. They're +333 on Bet365 to extend that trend this weekend against host Genoa.