Champions League Best Bets - Tuesday
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
There is a new favourite to win this year’s Champions League, and it is a team that has never won the competition before: Paris Saint-Germain have scored 12 goals without reply in their three group games so far and are now 4/1 to win it. The previous favourites, Real Madrid, have lengthened after some poor league form, including a shock 2-1 defeat away to Girona.
Third in the betting are now Manchester City after their impressive win over Napoli. They are 6/1, with Barcelona 13/2. Next come Bayern Munich at 7/1, Manchester United at 14/1, Chelsea and Juventus at 20/1, Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool at 25/1, Napoli at 33/1 and everyone else 50/1 or longer.
The Banker: Bayern Munich to win at Celtic at 3/10
Bayern Munich look unlikely to top Group B after their defeat away to Paris Saint-Germain, but this group still represents much of what the early stages of the Champions League have become: two superclubs will finish in the top two spots, while two proud clubs from small leagues with small budgets will be left to fight it out for the Europa League spot.
Bayern Munich travel to Celtic as 3/10 favourites, and their performance in the reverse fixture three weeks ago, a 3-0 win, suggests that is value. They mustered 20 shots to Celtic’s six and could have scored far more in the goalless final 39 minutes of the match. Celtic are usually good at home in this competition, but were dispatched 5-0 by PSG at Celtic Park. It would take a very optimistic home fan to expect anything here.
The Solid Bet: AS Roma to beat Chelsea at 31/20
I tipped Chelsea in the reverse leg after seeing Roma’s faltering displays against Atletico Madrid and Qarabag combined with Chelsea’s superb win in Madrid, but Roma deserved to win the 3-3 draw at Stamford Bridge two weeks ago, dominating the match in one of Europe’s toughest venues for away teams. Roma were unlucky to be 2-0 down before pulling it back to 3-2, Edin Dzeko giving the Chelsea defence a nightmare time, before Eden Hazard rescued a point for Chelsea.
Chelsea have won their last two league fixtures, against Watford and Bournemouth, but there is still a sense of lethargy around Antonio Conte’s side. Their extra games this year appear to be taking their toll, and based on the match two weeks ago they have little business vying for favouritism here. Roma are the bet.
The Outsider: Olympiakos +1.5 at home to Barcelona at 6/4
Barcelona defeated Olympiakos 3-1 at the Nou Camp, but it was not a match the home side found particularly easy. They were gifted the lead thanks to an own goal and did not extend their advantage until the hour mark. An entirely defensive Olympiakos limited them to 13 shots - a low number by Barcelona’s very high standards.
The group is all but won for Barcelona provided they can avoid a heavy defeat away to Juventus, and they have so far played reasonably cautiously in the Champions League. Add to that Olympiakos’s good form at home in the Champions League, and it could be a tougher night than expected for Barcelona.
The First Goalscorer: Anthony Martial to score first for Manchester United against Benfica at 7/2
Manchester United laboured to a 1-0 win away to Benfica two weeks ago, and it was the same scoreline as Jose Mourinho’s men saw off Tottenham Hotspur at Old Trafford at the weekend.
United have all but won this group already, with two home matches left out of their remaining three games. Nonetheless, they will want to sew it up quickly. Anthony Martial scored United’s winner on Saturday and was hugely impressive after his introduction off the bench 70 minutes in. It is likely that Mourinho will give him a start and may even rest Romelu Lukaku. Martial looks like he is about to hit an excellent run of form, and backing him to score first at 7/2 is a good way to play this match.
Champions League Best Bets - Wednesday
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Wednesday night’s Champions League action sees the tournament’s deposed favourites, Real Madrid, travel to Spurs in the night’s most eye-catching game. In that group the two qualifiers are all but settled, but there remains a great deal to be decided in the three other sections, with only Manchester City and Besiktas all but sure of qualification to the knockout stages.
By the end of the night we will be a lot closer to knowing who will have a memorable Champions League campaign, and who may be going home early.
The Banker: Liverpool to win to nil against Maribor at 2/5
Liverpool recorded the biggest ever away Champions League win for an English club when they smashed Slovenian champions Maribor 7-0 two weeks ago. How Jurgen Klopp’s men could have done with transferring a few of those goals to their frustrating 0-0 draw against Manchester United three days previously, when their finishing badly let them down.
Much has been made of Liverpool’s rickety defence, especially in the wake of their 4-1 loss at Tottenham Hotspur. But the truth is that, against poor teams, they are rarely troubled. Huddersfield Town mustered just one shot against them in Liverpool’s 3-0 win at the weekend, and Maribor are a much worse side than Huddersfield. Trust Liverpool to keep a clean sheet and 2/5 is a good bet.
The Solid Bet: Besiktas to beat Monaco at 5/4
In what looked like one of this year’s tightest groups, Besiktas have unexpectedly run away with Group G with three consecutive wins, leaving them five points clear of their nearest challengers. Despite this, however, they remain odds-against for the visit of last season’s semi-finalists Monaco.
They won 2-1 away to Monaco last time out, and it was hardly a backs-against-the-wall victory, with Besiktas matching their opponents in possession and turning around a 1-0 deficit. Only five of Monaco’s first choice outfielders from last season remain at the club, and although they have remained steady in the league, they have picked up just one Champions League point so far.
A trip to Istanbul is notoriously tough for any team, and it is worth keeping faith with Besiktas here.
The Outsider: Spartak Moscow to win at Sevilla at 6/1
Spartak Moscow’s 5-1 thrashing of Sevilla two weeks ago raised plenty of eyebrows in Europe. After all, Spartak have underachieved for a decade while Sevilla are European experts. And although the scoreline did not really reflect the pattern of the match, Spartak’s ruthless counter-attacking exposed major weaknesses in Sevilla’s defence.
Spartak also managed a creditable 1-1 draw at home to Liverpool - a match they could easily have won, but their draw away to Maribor means that it is very much a “three from two” situation at the top of Group E.
Sevilla’s home form this year may have been excellent, but at 6/1 Spartak Moscow are well worth a punt to repeat their heroics and put themselves within touching distance of the last 16.
The First Goalscorer: Isco for Real Madrid away to Tottenham Hotspur at 8/1
Tottenham Hotspur visited the Bernabeu, played an attacking game, and escaped alive. A mightily impressive 1-1 draw was the reward for their approach, and they now take on a Real Madrid side smarting from a dreadful 2-1 defeat by Girona at the weekend. Despite the turmoil surrounding Barcelona in the summer, it is the Catalan side that are now solid favourites to win La Liga, while Real are left ruing the lack of a marquee signing.
But Spurs are set to be without their talisman Harry Kane on Wednesday, and his absence left them rather blunt against Manchester United at the weekend. Real Madrid are solid 23/20 favourites to win this match.
And Isco may be the man to help them do that. In the last 18 months he has emerged as one of the world’s foremost midfielders. He scored Real’s goal at the weekend, and with Cristiano Ronaldo suffering a dip in form Isco looks good value to score the game’s first goal at 8/1.