Tour heads to Bay Hill
By Sportsbook.ag
Tournament: Arnold Palmer Invitational
Date: Mar. 19 - Mar. 22
Venue: Bay Hill Club and Lodge
Location: Orlando, FL
The PGA concludes its “Florida Swing” with a visit to the king of golf’s favorite course at Bay Hill this week. The par-72, 7,381-yard course has hosted this event for the tour since 1979 and has had big names such as Palmer, Trevino, Irwin, Stewart, Couples, Mickelson, Els and Woods hold the trophy at Sunday in the past. The course has been much harder to navigate in recent years with the average winning score being just over 10-under par in the past eight installments of the event with 13-under being the mark in each of the past three seasons.
It was Matt Every who was able to grab his first career PGA victory here last year when he surpassed the likes of Adam Scott, Keegan Bradley and Jason Kokrak on the final day with a score of 70. One of the big stories of the week will be the addition of world No.1 Rory McIlroy to the field as he competes in this tournament for the first time and is joined by the rest of the top-five with Bubba Watson, Henrik Stenson, Adam Scott and Jason Day all teeing it up.
The strong field continues as 10 other players from the top-30 of the Official World Golf Ranking come out to play as last week’s winner, Jordan Spieth, sits this one out. One player that will not be hitting the course is Tiger Woods who has dominated here in the past, winning eight times in his career and four times in the last seven years.
Let’s take a look at who can go out this week and hold his own at Arnold Palmer’s favorite course.
Golfers to Bet:
Henrik Stenson (8/1): Stenson takes up residency not too far from this course and has seemed at home here in each of the past three years; getting a top-15 finish each time and improving his standing in each successive visit. Last year was his best showing as he shot under 70 on three of the days and finished in a tie for fifth with a score of nine-under par behind better than 80% of GIR and fairways hit. The No. 3 player in the world is coming off consecutive fourth-place finishes in each of the past two weeks at very tough courses as he’s gained 1.13 strokes gained putting so far in three PGA events and should use that momentum to catapult him up the leaderboards come Sunday.
Keegan Bradley (28/1): Bradley has seen his game struggle somewhat due to changing his putting style from the anchored putter to the more standard grip, but has still made 6-of-7 cuts and has two top-25’s. He should improve with his short game as the season progresses and there is no better place than Bay Hill for him to do that as he placed third here in 2013 and then was the runner-up last year. He shot 11-under on the par-5s in 2014 and netted two rounds of 67 or better before shooting an even 72 on Sunday. While his putting has suffered (-0.21 strokes gained putting, 140th on tour), he still ranks in the top-15 in both driving distance (302.0 yards per, 15th on tour) and strokes gained tee-to-green (1.12, 12th on tour). Look for Bradley to get back on track this week and put up some nice numbers.
Ian Poulter (40/1): Poulter has flirted with the winner’s circle recently and despite being one of the best players in the world, has just one win on the PGA tour in stroke play. At certain points in both the Honda Classic and Valspar Championship, Poulter looked poised to grab the lead and run with it, but had trouble each time as he finished third and 24th respectively. The Englishmen has enjoyed his time at Bay Hill, doing no worse than 21st over his last four visits with a third-place back in 2012 being his best showing as he managed a score of six-under. Poulter is fantastic around the greens, and if he can avoid the little mistakes that cost him strokes he should easily net a top-10 finish.
Erik Compton (350/1): Compton may be a tough pick to swallow as the 35-year-old has failed to make the cut in each of the past five events, but he has a top-16 finish here in each of the past two seasons, including a standing of fifth last year, and has too much talent to continue at this pace. His two showings at this event are among 11 total top-25 finishes he’s carded since the start of the 2013 campaign, so he surely enjoys this course, and his solid putting (0.35 strokes gained putting, 56th on tour) should give him an outside shot at his first career victory.
S.J. Park (450/1): Park is one of many rookies on the tour that has had success in their inaugural PGA season and he’s made 7-of-11 cuts thus far on the year; including finishing second at the Humana Challenge with four straight days of 68 or better. He should also be feeling some confidence after a 69 on Sunday at the Valspar Championship, a mark that brought him up to a tie for 30th on a tough course. Park has an accurate driver (65.6%, 40th on tour) while being great around the green, ranking fifth on tour in scrambling (69%) and sixth in sand save percentage (69.5%), all important attributes on a course such as this one. The rookie is a risky selection, but is worth dropping a unit on if you want a deep sleeper.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Odds - Provided by Sportsbook.ag
Rory McIlroy 5/1
Henrik Stenson 8/1
Bubba Watson 11/1
Jason Day 16/1
Adam Scott 17/1
Rickie Fowler 23/1
Brooks Koepka 28/1
Keegan Bradley 28/1
Hideki Matsuyama 30/1
J.B. Holmes 30/1
Harris English 35/1
Ian Poulter 40/1
Kevin Na 40/1
Brandt Snedeker 45/1
Paul Casey 45/1
Sean O'Hair 45/1
Webb Simpson 50/1
Graeme McDowell 55/1
Francesco Molinari 65/1
Graham Delaet 65/1
Jason Kokrak 65/1
Justin Thomas 65/1
Martin Laird 65/1
Russell Knox 65/1
Billy Horschel 75/1
Shane Lowry 75/1
Brendan Steele 80/1
Hunter Mahan 80/1
Louis Oosthuizen 80/1
Charles Howell III 95/1
Rory Sabbatini 95/1
Daniel Berger 100/1
Gary Woodland 100/1
Shawn Stefani 100/1
Bernd Wiesberger 120/1
Zach Johnson 120/1
Chris Kirk 130/1
Danny Willett 130/1
Matt Jones 130/1
Sang-Moon Bae 150/1
Vijay Singh 150/1
Branden Grace 160/1
Daniel Summerhays 160/1
Freddie Jacobson 160/1
Padraig Harrington 160/1
Retief Goosen 160/1
Alexander Levy 170/1
Brian Davis 80/1
Camilo Villegas 180/1
Kevin Chappell 180/1
Kevin Streelman 180/1
Lucas Glover 180/1
Marc Leishman 180/1
Boo Weekley 200/1
Robert Streb 200/1
John Senden 220/1
Seung-Yul Noh 220/1
Brian Harman 230/1
Danny Lee 230/1
Ernie Els 230/1
George McNeill 230/1
Pat Perez 230/1
Russell Henley 230/1
Scott Stallings 230/1
Tony Finau 230/1
Chris Stroud 240/1
Jason Bohn 240/1
Matt Every 240/1
William McGirt 240/1
Angel Cabrera 250/1
Chad Campbell 250/1
Chesson Hadley 250/1
K.J. Choi 250/1
Ryo Ishikawa 250/1
Sam Saunders 250/1
Carl Pettersson 300/1
Carlos Ortiz 300/1
John Huh 300/1
Zac Blair 300/1
Ben Martin 350/1
Billy Hurley III 350/1
Erik Compton 350/1
Morgan Hoffmann 350/1
Alex Prugh 400/1
Andres Gonzales 400/1
Brian Stuard 400/1
Charlie Beljan 400/1
David Lingmerth 400/1
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 400/1
Stewart Cink 400/1
S.J. Park 450/1
Spencer Levin 500/1
Chad Collins 550/1
Colt Knost 550/1
D.A. Points 550/1
Kyle Reifers 550/1
Ben Curtis 650/1
Hudson Swafford 650/1
Rod Pampling 650/1
Steven Bowditch 650/1
Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview
By Matt Fargo
Playbook.com
Jordan Spieth claimed his second PGA Tour event as he won in a playoff over Sean O'Hair and Patrick Reed at the Valspar Championship. The PGA Tour continues the Florida swing with a trip to Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This is a big event with a lot of big names and this will be the final stocked field until the Masters in three weeks. The headliner is Rory McIlroy who is making his first ever start at Bay Hill and he is the favorite at +500.
While McIlroy is the headliner, the field is a mighty one as the top five players in the world are all competing as well as 15 of the top 30. Eight-time winner Tiger Woods is sitting out the Invitational for the second straight year and just his third since turning pro in 1996. Overall, 31 of 36 winners at Bay Hill have been Americans. Last year, Matt Every was the first winner in five years not to have recorded a previous top-five finish on the Florida Swing leading up to the event.
Adam Scott (+2,000) missed his first cut since 2012 last week at Innisbrook, a place he has struggled in recent starts. He finished T4 in his first start of the season at the Cadillac Championship so he is certainly not rusty. Bay Hill has been up and down for him and last year he was making his first start here since 2009. He led by seven going into Sunday but a 76 pushed him back to third.
Harris English (+3,100) is a quality ball striker and he has some momentum from a Sunday 65 at the Valspar. He has been pretty up and down but he has missed just one cut in 2015 while bagging three top tens including a T3 at the Sony and a playoff setback at the Famers. He has gotten progressively better at Bay Hill, going from a MC in 2012 to a T57 in 2013 to a T14 last year.
Keegan Bradley (+3,200) isn't exactly tearing things up this season but he hasn't been horrible either. He has only one missed cut while putting up a trio of top fives including a T4 at the Northern Trust Open. His most recent finish was a T38 at the Cadillac Championship and Bay Hill has been one of his favorite stops the past two years with a solo second and a T3.
J.B. Holmes (+3,500) is hard not to root for and his game is back. He has been close to victory on two different occasions with a T2 at the Farmers and a solo second in his last start at the Cadillac Championship. He has never missed the cut at Bay Hill with his best finish being a T10 last year. Making that even more impressive is the fact he did not finish better than T52 in his previous four starts.
Kevin Na (+4,500) has not won since 2011 when he won at Justin Timberlake's event but he has been close with three runner-up finishes the last two seasons. He is playing at his best right now with a T9 at the Cadillac Championship and a T10 last week at the Valspar. He has four top 15 finishes in his last five starts at Bay Hill including a T4 in 2012 and a T2 in 2010.
Recommended Tournament Win Five Pack at the Arnold Palmer Invitational - All for 1 Unit
Adam Scott (+2,000)
Harris English (+3,100)
Keegan Bradley (+3,200)
J.B. Holmes (+3,500)
Kevin Na (+4,500)
2015 Record to date after 9 events: +41.5 Units
Hyundai Tournament of Champions -5 Units
Humana Challenge +24 Units
Waste Management Phoenix Open -5 Units
Farmers Insurance Open +8.5 Units
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am +18 Units
Northern Trust Open -5 Units
Honda Classic -5 Units
WGC-Cadillac Championship +16 Units
Valspar Championship -5 Units