NHL betting trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, June 3rd, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NHL Knowledge
Pittsburgh won first two Finals games at home; they’re 10-2 in last 12 games with Nashville- four of last five series games went over. Predators won four of its last five home games; under is 7-3-2 in their last 11 games, 3-1-1 in last five at home. Pittsburgh is 2-3 in last five road games, scoring total of nine goals. Under is 4-3-2 in their last nine games. Penguins won Cup LY and in 2009; they’re 4-1 overall in Stanley Cup final series. Nashville is in its first Stanley Cup final.
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NHL Stanley Cup Final Game 3 Betting Preview
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Pittsburgh Penguins at Nashville Predators (-135, 5.5)
Home cookin' traditionally provides a bountiful feast for the Nashville Predators, who hope the change of scenery goes a long way in altering results when they host the Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final. Music City has been a safe haven for the Predators, who are 7-1 in these playoffs at Bridgestone Arena and winners of 11 of their past 12 playoff contests.
Nashville defenseman P.K. Subban is confident that victory will be on the menu Saturday, providing what is tantamount to a guarantee as well as bulletin-board material for his opponent. "There's no question. We're going to win the next game, and then we'll move forward," said the outspoken Subban, who has seen his team outshoot the Penguins 64-39 -- only to be outscored 9-4 in losing the first two contests of the best-of-seven series. Jake Guentzel has been responsible for both game-winning goals of the series, scoring with 3:17 remaining in Game 1 and setting an NHL rookie record for a playoff year with his fifth such tally in Wednesday's 4-1 victory. The 2-0 series lead is a familiar one for Pittsburgh, which also claimed that advantage last year before skating past San Jose in six games to capture its fourth Stanley Cup in franchise history.
LINE HISTORY: The Predators may be down 2-0 in the Stanley Cup final, but they will enter game three as the betting favorites at the sportsbooks. The Preds opened at -140 on the moneyline and that number has come down slightly to -135. The total hit the betting board at 5.5. Check out the complete line history here.
GOALIE MATCHUP: Matt Murray vs. Pekka Rinne
Murray - GP: 7, W/L: 5-1, 1.54 GAA, .943 SAVE %, 1 SO
Rinne - GP: 18, W/L: 12-6, 1.98 GAA, .929 SAVE %, 2 SO
INJURY REPORT:
Penguins - C N. Bonino (Questionable, lower body), RW T. Kuhnhackl (Questionable, lower body), D C. Ruhwedel (Questionable, concussion), D K. Letang (Out for season, neck).
Predators - LW C. Wilson (Doubtful, undisclosed), C R. Johansen (Out For Season, thigh), LW K. Fiala (Out For Season, leg).
ABOUT THE PENGUINS (64-26-8-5, 56-40 O/U): While the 22-year-old Guentzel leads the league in goals (12), fellow forward Evgeni Malkin added to his advantage in points (26) by scoring a goal in his second straight contest Wednesday to send beleaguered Pekka Rinne to the showers. The 2012 Hart Trophy winner has recorded six points (three goals, three assists) in his past five games. Chris Kunitz is doing quite well in his own right by matching a career high with three straight multi-point performances in the playoffs, during which he has collected two goals and five assists.
ABOUT THE PREDATORS (53-34-9-4, 45-43 O/U): Although coach Peter Laviolette "politely" reiterated Friday that he and his coaching staff do not publicly discuss lineup changes, Rinne likely will be in net for Game 3 despite being shredded for eight goals on 36 shots in the first two contests. The three-time Vezina Trophy finalist has permitted just 13 tallies en route to winning seven of eight playoff games at Bridgestone Arena to go along with a 1.54 goals-against average and .947 save percentage. "It's going to be a tremendous lift," Laviolette said of playing at home. "I think the playoffs, everything ratchets up and becomes even better, a more explosive environment."
TRENDS:
* Penguins are 8-2 in their last 10 Stanley Cup Final games.
* Predators are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.
* Under is 9-2 in Penguins last 11 Stanley Cup Final games.
* Under is 7-1-3 in Predators last 11 home games.
* Penguins are 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.
CONSENSUS: 64 percent of users are siding with the home favorite Predators and 55 percent of the totals wagers are on the Under.
PITTSBURGH (64-26-0-13, 141 pts.) at NASHVILLE (53-34-0-13, 119 pts.)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 6-2 (+3.5 Units) against the spread versus NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 6-2-0 straight up against NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.0 Units)
PITTSBURGH vs. NASHVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Nashville
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Nashville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nashville's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Nashville is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games
Saturday's Best Bet
By Sportsbook.ag
Pittsburgh vs. Nashville
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Pittsburgh (+120), Nashville (-140); Total set at 5.5
After going 2-0 and cashing the selections for Game 1 and Game 2 already in these Stanley Cup Finals as the series shifts to Nashville. The Predators have been the better team overall for the large majority of this series, yet, brief physical and mental lapses have cost them dearly.
The scary thing in that regard for Nashville fans is the notion that Pittsburgh can play much better still and they are the ones with the 2-0 series lead. Can Nashville get back into it in Game 3, or will it become basically a formality that the Penguins defend their crown?
The biggest question mark surrounding this selection is the question of if the Nashville Predators go back to Pekka Rinne between the pipes here. Rinne has had a couple of rough outings in these Stanley Cup Finals so far, but it's tough to see the Predators not going back with the veteran goalie in this game.
For one, Rinne is a big part of why the Predators are still playing hockey right now and there is still a bit of room left on the leash in that regard. Secondly, it's going to be really tough to give backup Juuse Saros his first ever playoff start in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals, down 0-2 in the series.
When Pittsburgh decided to change to Matt Murray last round, it wasn't like they were going to a guy who didn't have past playoff success to bank on. That's not really the case in Nashville and the Preds are likely going to sink or swim with Rinne in net the rest of the way.
Even if it there is a goalie switch (the line will likely drop a touch but I still like the play), the fact that Nashville has dominated the bulk of action and don't have a win to show for it yet should be rectified in Game 3. The Preds just have so much more confidence in their own building, and being a desperate bunch in Game 3, the home crowd should be enough to put the Preds over the top here.
That story won't be the same for Game 4 regardless of what happens in Game 3, but Nashville absolutely has to come out with everything right from the outset, and hope Rinne (or whomever is in net) can hold up their end of the bargain. Rinne has allowed 1 goal or less in five of Nashville's eight home games, so the odds of him rebounding in familiar territory are quite high.
P.K Subban's guarantee aside, Game 3 is one the Predators absolutely have to have if they want any realistic hope of getting back into this series. They've already been the better team on the ice for the majority of the time, and if they can continue in that regard, it will help Nashville make their own good luck.
Nashville has scored at least 2 goals in every playoff home game so far this spring, and if they can hit that mark early and play for a lead for the first time in this series, we should see a much more confident Predators team the rest of the way. Remember, this is the first series they've trailed in this spring, and they've yet to officially lead at any point in the first two games of this series. A return home is that kick in the pants this Nashville team needs to get over the hump and get a W.
Pittsburgh understands that Nashville will start Game 3 with guns blazing, but given how the bulk of play has gone so far, I'm not sure Pittsburgh can do anything to withstand it. The Penguins have been far from their high standards, but Nashville's speed and physicality have completely frustrated the Penguins for long stretches of time, and if the Pens are forced to play uphill for the first time in this series, they simply might not have enough to push back – unless Nashville suffers another one of those 5 minute lapses.
Best Bet: Nashville Predators -140