Louisville +15
Both teams are coming off easy wins and a have short week of preparation for this match up. Louisville, coming in at 2-2, can get some much needed confidence and momentum with a win heading into their confernce schedule. In what should be a good match up, Florida St. comes in 15th in the country in rushing offense at 230 ypg, while Louisville is 12th in rushing defense, giving up only 83 ypg and 2.3 ypc. The Cardinal should be able to hold their own here but need to be careful and not over pursue because Chris Rix does have the ability to beat them himself. However, this will be the quickest defense he has faced this year. The defense is giving up only 182 yards passing per game with a 45% completion rate and 2 TD’s through the air. Defensively, the Seminoles have been vulnerable to the pass, giving up 261 ypg, good for only 104th in the country and they are giving up 7.79 ypa. Part of this is due to the pass rush that Florida St. hasn’t had for the past year and a half. They have only nine sacks through four games this year. The young offensive line of the Cardinals will need to play a solid game to give Ragone the protection he needs to find his receivers. The bad line play led to the loss against Kentucky when Ragone was knocked around all night long, but is improving after each game. Ragone cannot force anything as he is always trying to make something happen on his own – he needs to take what they give him, which means throwing the ball away if necessary as opposed to throwing the costly interception. The Cardinals have one of the top passing games in the country and Florida St. will be trying to defend that first. This should open up the run and they will try to establish the running game for a few reasons. Obviously, the main reason is to open up the passing game and take some heat off of Ragone. Second, they want to keep the offense on the field as long as possible. Too many 3 and outs will cause too many problems for their defense and they don’t want to wear down late in the game. Having the defense on the field too long makes them susceptible to the big play, which they need to avoid. This Cardinal team has been talking about this game all summer long. They were hoping to enter this game undefeated as well but it’s not the case and it’s time to come in and show that they are a top caliber team still. Louisville has more players from the state of Florida than any other state. A lot of these players weren’t recruited and some even turned down by Florida St. and they want to show what they can do. A win over FSU could also do wonders for future recruiting. The Cardinals are looking for a win here so the 15-point head start is very appealing.
GL!