Watch out for Big 64
By Bruce Marshall
One of the nice things about having a state-of-the-art website is the ability to tackle storylines outside of the normal publishing routine, which is tightly controlled by available space and timeliness. Our editorial horizons are broadened a bit on our website, where we are free to touch upon other themes and topics. Indeed, we think some of our more-memorable pieces in recent years have been our popular "travelogue" segments whenever we visit another part of the country. Last year's accounts of trips to Baton Rouge and West Point were especially well-received, as was this year's diary of the journey to Oxford, MS (Ole Miss) and Memphis.
More often than not, however, we're tackling some more substantive topics in our website editorials, which through the years have challenged the bowl system and dared the powers-that-be in college football to come up with a better solution. That this year's regular season has ended up delivering a rather clear-cut BCS title game (unless you're a TCU supporter, that is) between Oregon and Auburn is beside the point. Because of the BCS and the current bowl system, the college sports landscape is in a constant state of flux, and has become almost unrecognizable from its former self.
And the rapidity of change is catching even us by surprise; last week, when mentioning how some of the tectonic plates in college sports were expected to continue moving over the next few years as conferences adapt, adjust, and consolidate, we had no idea that by the next time we prepared a cover story, another major shift would take place. And while we expected TCU to be a sort of "queen on the chessboard" regarding college conference realignment, and warned that the Big East was one of several leagues still in an expansion-minded mode, neither we nor anyone we know (including some Mountain West insiders in my Las Vegas home base) were expecting the announcement last week of the Horned Frogs' pending move from the MWC to the Big East, effective 2012.
TCU? From Fort Worth? Where the West begins? In the Big East? Well, why not, if the Dallas Cowboys compete in the NFC East? But it still only makes sense when considering what the BCS and the current bowl system are doing to the college sports map. So change-happy is the environment that we almost wouldn't be surprised to see the Big East try to co-opt Boise State, too. After all, if UConn and Syracuse are now going to be making regular trips to Fort Worth, it's not too much farther to Boise, where there are rarely the flight delays one can encounter at DFW anyway. And when it comes to basketball season, it would be nice for the Horned Frogs not to be so isolated from the rest of the conference. A TCU-Boise road swing for Big East basketball entries would almost be like baseball's National League from 1958-68, when the Dodgers and Giants were the only NL entries not in the Eastern or Central Time Zones, and would always comprise western road swings for the Phillies, Pirates, Reds, etc.
Don't laugh. Boise to the Big East isn't so far-fetched. After all, if Pitt-TCU can become a league game, why couldn't Rutgers-Boise State? And if Providence's basketball team already has to travel to a place such as Tampa to face South Florida, is it really that much more inconvenient to Fort Worth or Boise?
Last spring, just after the Final Four was complete, we ran one of our most critically-acclaimed website pieces, in which we projected what the college conference landscape might look like in a few years. We noted that the current bowl system and BCS would be the driving force behind all of the realignment. The story, entitled "Get Ready for College Football's Big 64," foretold of a future conference structure of four "super leagues" consisting of sixteen schools each. As well as a Pac-10 raid on the Big XII's South Division two months before it actually happened. It really was unbeknownst to us in April just how close the Pac-10 was to implementing its hostile takeover plan. We knew something was up, but didn't expect things to happen so quickly. Just as we were caught off-guard by the Big East's stealth move for TCU last week.
With the bowl season and BCS ready to begin, it might be a good idea to recall some of the main points of our "Big 64" story, to get an idea of the sort of upheaval that the current system has already caused, and is about to generate in the near future. And what we said last April (which follows below) might ring even more true this December.
"Okay, college football fans, are you sure you don't want to somehow force the issues with the powers-that-be in the sport and demand the BCS be junked and a real playoff system instituted? Now, we're not quite sure by which means we would suggest going about doing it, but whatever has to happen to force this issue might be worthwhile. Even if swallowing any political affiliations and lining up behind Utah senator Orrin Hatch or any other Beltway insiders who might want to bring the BCS to its knees. Because if something isn't done soon, it won't be long before the conference landscape is radically altered even more than it has been over the past two decades. And college football as we have known it will change forever.
"And if it does, blame it on no playoff system, as the big schools look for ways to close ranks, protect their own turf, and maximize their available cash flows by whatever means necessary. Even if it means shattering long-standing traditional matchups and alliances.
"Make no mistake, college football is big business these days, and the major players in the big conferences know it. The tradeoff the big schools are willing to make to avoid implementing the sort of full-scale playoff set-up that, under current rules, would have to be administered by the NCAA (as is currently the case with March Madness in basketball), is staggering. Rather than cede any control to the NCAA beyond sanctioning of bowl games, leagues are glad to prostitute themselves in order to remain in control of the situation (even if a playoff would prime the revenue pump three or four times above current levels). Expansion. Corporate affiliations. Conference title games. Dedicated TV channels. Only the threats of political reprisal and court-spawned class action suits against the current cartel masquerading as the BCS have kept the big schools from making their membership ranks more exclusive than that of Augusta National Country Club.
"Following the Big Ten's lead regarding expansion, the Pac-10 has also announced plans to consider expansion, but there's another seismic event on the horizon. Sensing what the Big Ten is up to, the SEC has also announced that it is going to look into the expansion game as well. Which means that the dominoes are not far from falling in rapid-fire succession.
"Only when the schools want to admit all of expansion talk and BCS and the dedicated TV channels are really part of a business enterprise will it all be easier to swallow. But we're not expecting to have a date with Scarlett Johannson anytime soon, either. "Meanwhile, the new-found conference expansion talk sounds more like a collection of TV executives discussing market size and related items. Each potentially-targeted school is graded almost solely by its ability to generate a TV following and accompanying revenue streams. Geography and convenience to other conference members isn't even a primary consideration anymore.
"But it's the SEC's interest in potentially getting involved in the expansion game that is the real indicator that conference Armageddon is on the horizon. Its fear is that the Big Ten could become all-too powerful if it can somehow corral the likes of Notre Dame and Texas into its ranks, giving it a broader base from which to wield unimaginable power with the TV networks and wring further concessions out of the BCS, which the Big Ten could care less about anyway. In a sense, it's the SEC that is fighting to maintain some integrity in the whole situation, and it might be the only entity that can stand in the way of the Big Ten running roughshod over the rest of the college football world. Which, unfortunately, means that it, too, is going to have to play the sort of big-time poaching game that the Big Ten has already put into motion.
"We suspect, however, that all of the conferences will soon get keen to what the Big Ten is up to...including the Pac-10, which has long underutilized its potential clout in such matters.
"What we're potentially seeing, folks, are the earliest stages of movement in the eventual creation of numerous "super" conferences, as all try to align in the best way to take advantage of upcoming marketing conditions. And we suspect the real action is yet to come, as the leagues are going to approach the re-formatting as a matter of survival. The ACC's poaching Boston College, Virginia Tech, and Miami away from the Big East a few years ago is going to look like child's play when the smoke finally clears from the upcoming round of conference shifting, which could take shape anytime over the next few years. A new order of college football could feature four, or perhaps five, super leagues of 16 schools each."
We proceeded with some more specifics, including some particular key developments to watch.
"Texas. Interestingly, the Longhorns could be the key piece to the future puzzle of college athletics. They will be coveted by the Big Ten, SEC, and, if so inclined, the Pac-10. What Texas does influences everything, as not only will it be all-out war between the leagues if the Longhorns move, but the future of the Big XII suddenly becomes very much up in the air, especially if the likes of A&M and Oklahoma are includes in any "package deal" with UT.
"Big XII. As mentioned before, as goes Texas, so goes the Big XII, which could be broken into pieces like the old Southwest Conference in any new order of college football. Already, Nebraska and Missouri are dressing themselves up as they look for an invitation to the Big Ten prom. And now, there's Texas to consider; the entire Big XII building collapses if the Longhorns bolt the stable. In that case, expect the entire Big XII affiliation to crumble apart as its teams are absorbed into newer and bigger versions of the Big Ten, Pac-10, or SEC.
"ACC/Big East. Both of these conferences could be very vulnerable to poachers in the upcoming round of warfare. Depending upon how serious the SEC is about expanding, several ACC schools could be targeted, with almost any number (Florida State, Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, Maryland) likely to be candidates. Meanwhile, Pitt, Syracuse, and Rutgers are apparently in the gunsights of the Big Ten. There is no love lost between administrators of the ACC and Big East since the aforementioned poaching episode a few years ago, but nonetheless, some believe a complete re-order of the ACC and Big East is a possibility, with another regional super-conference a potential byproduct. And it would probably take the form of the ACC emerging with the football riches. The Big East remains vulnerable to market shifts; it's worth noting there have long been tensions between the football and non-football entities in the Big East, which could potentially reformat into a hoops-only league."
What we also included in the "Big 64" was a projection of how we saw the Pac-10 eventually looking. "PAC-10 (16?)...Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, Cal, Stanford, Southern Cal, UCLA." The Pac-10 indeed attempted to reconfigure the league just as we envisioned, but it moved quicker than we anticpated, and indeed made the first pre-emptive strikes before the Big Ten or SEC.
It's been only a bit over seven months since we wrote that "Big 64" piece, but consider what has already happened over that span of time. Boise State moved from the WAC to the Mountain West. The Pac-10 made its preemptive move for the Big XII South (save Baylor), plus Colorado, as we projected. A last ditch attempt to save the Big XII, cobbled together by many Texas politicians, barely averted the Pac-10 takeover scenario (which was partly fueled by a pending new TV contract for the Pac-10, and the riches it envisioned for a mega-conference channel spanning three time zones and must-see TV on every cable system in the country) and temporarily saved the Big XII, which eventually acquiesced to Texas and favorable conditions for the Horns. It's worth noting that Texas A&M's reluctance to join in the move to the Pac-10, instead preferring a shift to the SEC (as preferred by former football coach and influential board member Gene Stallings), might have helped put the brakes on the merger just in time to avert the complete disintegration of the Big XII.
The Big Ten didn't get Texas or Notre Dame (at least not yet), bud did heist Nebraska from the Big XII, which also lost Colorado to the Pac-10, where it will be joined by the MWC's Utah in 2011. The Big Ten and Pac-10 (12) thus announced conference football title games beginning next year, while the Big XII, on a bit shakier footing, temporarily reduces to ten teams and suspends its conference title game until further notice. BYU, with its own cable channel and an accompanying deal with ESPN, then announces it is leaving the Mountain West for football independence and membership in the West Coast Conference for other sports. But only after the Cougs' proposed affiliation with the WAC is scuttled by Fresno State and Nevada both bolting that loop for the Mountain West. Hawaii then announces it would like to leave the WAC and join the MWC for football and the Big West for other sports. Then TCU announces it is leaving the MWC for the...Big East. All in the past seven months. What might the next seven months bring?
Could a playoff help prevent the kind of upheaval we predict? Yes, because it would reduce the necessity of leagues reconfiguring themselves to take advantage of the current marketplace. Financial concerns, at the root of the changes, would be solved by a playoff. In the meantime, don't blink your eyes...you might miss the next school switching conferences.