SPORTS ADVISORS
Ohio State (13-3, 7-5 ATS) at (25) Illinois (15-3, 10-4 ATS)
One day after earning a spot at the tail end of the Top 25, Illinois will try to justify the ranking when it hosts Ohio State at Assembly Hall in Champaign, Ill.
The Illini surged into the rankings despite Saturday’s tough 63-57 loss at then-No. 7 Michigan State, though they did cover as an eight-point road underdog. Illinois has split its last four games and is 3-2 SU (4-1 ATS) in Big Ten action, including 2-0 SU and ATS at home with double-digit wins over Indiana (76-45) and Michigan (66-51). The Illini, who can match last season’s victory total with a win tonight, have faced four ranked teams in their first five league contests, and they’re allowing just 60 ppg during this five-game stretch.
Ohio State goes back on the road after Saturday’s impressive 65-58 win at No. 25 Michigan as a 5½-point road underdog. The Buckeyes have won three in a row and cashed in their last three lined games (all in conference action). Like the Illini, OSU is 3-2 in Big Ten play (3-2 ATS), averaging just 65.4 points per game but yielding only 62.2 ppg.
The home team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 series meetings, but the visitor got the cash in both of last year’s matchups. Ohio State, which has won the last five in this rivalry (4-1 ATS), prevailed 74-58 as a four-point road underdog last January, then 19 days later the Buckeyes took down Illinois 64-58 in Columbus, but came up just short as a 6½-point favorite. OSU is allowing just 55.8 ppg during its five-game winning streak in this series, and the ‘dog has gotten the money four times during this stretch.
Both squads are on a bevy of positive pointspread streaks. Ohio State’s ATS runs include 12-5 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 7-1 after a spread-cover, 10-4 following a SU win and 6-0-1 on Tuesday. The Illini are on ATS upticks of 10-3 overall, 6-2 in Big Ten play, 9-4 after a SU loss, 5-1 against winning teams and 4-1 on Tuesday.
The under is on runs of 4-0 for Ohio State on the road, 5-2 for Ohio State after a victory, 5-2 for Illinois overall, 7-1 for Illinois at home, 4-0 for Illinois after a defeat and 35-16-1 for Illinois after a spread-cover. Also, the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this rivalry, but four of the last five at Assembly Hall have gone over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
N.C. State (10-5, 6-5 ATS) at (2) Duke (16-1, 9-6-1 ATS)
On the cusp of returning to the top of the national rankings, Duke puts a nine-game winning streak on the line when it entertains North Carolina State at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, N.C.
The Blue Devils scored a pair of double-digit ACC road wins last week at Florida State (66-58 as a 9½-point favorite) and Georgia Tech (70-56 as a 12-point chalk). Then they returned to non-conference action Saturday and dumped No. 13 Georgetown 76-67, pushing as a nine-point home choice. During its nine-game winning streak, Duke’s average margin of victory is 18.9 points and it is allowing just 51.4 ppg. The Blue Devils are 10-0 at home (4-4-1 ATS), winning by an average of 25 ppg.
The Wolfpack halted a three-game slide and got their first ACC win on Saturday, topping Georgia Tech 76-71 in overtime, barely covering as a four-point home favorite. N.C. State is 1-2 SU and 1-1-1 ATS in ACC play, including a 63-51 loss at Clemson as an 11½-point underdog in its lone conference roadie to this point. After going six straight games allowing 68 points or fewer, the Wolfpack have surrendered 78 and 71 in their last two.
Duke is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings with N.C. State, and it has won 10 straight at home in this rivalry by an average of 18.2 ppg. Last year, the Blue Devils cruised to a 92-72 home win and barely covered as an 18-point favorite, then struggled to an 87-86 road victory, never threatening to cash as a 10½-point chalk. The host is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 series battles, including Duke’s current 4-1 ATS run when hosting the Wolfpack.
N.C. State has cashed in five of its last six following a SU victory, but otherwise the Wolfpack are mired in ugly pointspread slides of 11-26-1 overall, 2-8 on the road and 2-10 in ACC play. Duke is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight at home and 5-0 ATS in its last five on Tuesday.
The last eight meetings in this rivalry – including the last four at Cameron Indoor – have gone over the total. Also, the over is on runs of 10-4 for the Blue Devils on Tuesday, 8-0 for the Blue Devils against winning teams, 8-0 for N.C. State against winning teams, 10-2 for N.C. State after a SU win and 18-6 for N.C. State in ACC play. Conversely, the under is on stretches of 16-5 for Duke overall, 15-4 for Duke at home, 7-0 for Duke against league foes and 4-0 for the Wolfpack on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE
NBA
Atlanta (24-16, 21-19 ATS) at Chicago (18-24 SU and ATS)
The Hawks will attempt to sweep the season series from the Bulls when they journey to Chicago after a brief stop at home yesterday.
Atlanta came off a three-game road trip Monday and held off the Raptors 87-84, falling short as a 7½-point home favorite. The Hawks have followed a 10-2 run by going 2-5 in their last seven, and they’ve also followed a 13-4 ATS hot streak by going 2-7 ATS in their last nine. Lastly, they’re 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS in their last five on the highway.
The Bulls made a quick trip to Madison Square Garden on Monday, losing 102-98 to the Knicks as a two-point road underdog. Chicago, which has been held under 100 points in nine of its last 11 outings, has split its last eight games, with a pair of two-game winning streaks and a pair of two-game losing skids, and it has failed to cover in 10 of its last 14 contests. The Bulls tonight are playing their eighth home game in their last 10, and they’re just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS in the previous seven.
Atlanta has won three straight meetings against the Bulls, including a 113-108 victory as a four-point road underdog on Nov. 11 and a 129-117 rout as a nine-point home chalk on Dec. 27. Despite those two spread-covers, the Hawks are still just 5-12 ATS in the last 17 meetings overall and 2-6 ATS in their last eight trips to the United Center. Also, the favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes.
The Hawks are on ATS runs of 4-0 against the Central Division, 6-1 as an underdog, 4-1 as a road pup and 6-1 when playing on back-to-back days, but they’re just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 on Tuesday and 0-5 ATS in their last five against the Eastern Conference. Chicago carries nothing but negative ATS trends, including 2-6 at home, 3-8 as a favorite, 1-4 on Tuesday, 1-6 against winning teams and 1-6 versus the Southeast Division.
For Atlanta, the over is on runs of 8-3 overall, 6-1-1 against the Central Division, 5-1 versus the Eastern Conference and 4-1 against losing teams, and the Bulls have topped the total in five of their last seven against the Southeast Division, five of their last seven when playing on no rest, six of their last eight on Tuesday and 10 of their last 13 when favored by less than five points. However, the under is 8-3-1 in the Hawks’ last 12 on the road and 5-2 in the Bulls’ last seven at home.
Finally, the over is 4-1 in the last five Bulls-Hawks clashes overall, but four of the last five series battles at the United Center have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
DUNKEL
Indiana at San Antonio
The Spurs look to take advantage of Indiana's porous defense (108.0 ppg allowed on the road) and build on their 11-4 ATS record against poor defensive teams (allowing 99+ ppg). San Antonio is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-7 1/2).
Game 701-702: Atlanta at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 115.409; Chicago 119.418
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 4; 206 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 2; 201 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-2); Over
Game 703-704: Indiana at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 114.435; San Antonio 125.178
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 10 1/2; 207 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 7 1/2; 210
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-7 1/2); Under
Game 705-706: Minnesota at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 114.630; Utah 127.136
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 12 1/2; 213
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 9 1/2; 205
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-9 1/2); Over
Game 707-708: Sacramento at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 110.914; Denver 119.118
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 8; 207 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 10; 218 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+10); Under
NCAAB
DePaul at South Florida
DePaul brings a 3-10 ATS record into South Florida against a Bulls team that is 4-1 ATS in conference play. South Florida is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has South Florida favored by 13. Dunkel Pick: South Florida (-6).
Game 709-710: Ohio State at Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 65.154; Illinois 75.947
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 11
Vegas Line: Illinois by 7
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (-7)
Game 711-712: Akron at Ohio
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 57.670; Ohio 59.129
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Ohio by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Akron (+4 1/2)
Game 713-714: Boston College at Georgia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 62.375; Georgia Tech 62.757
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 3
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+3)
Game 715-716: Miami (OH) at Bowling Green
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 59.866; Bowling Green 56.619
Dunkel Line: Miami (OH) by 3
Vegas Line: Miami (OH) by 4
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+4)
Game 717-718: Creighton at Evansville
Dunkel Ratings: Creighton 60.472; Evansville 60.642
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Creighton by 2
Dunkel Pick: Evansville (+2)
Game 719-720: Western Michigan at Ball State
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 54.253; Ball State 51.734
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 3
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+3)
Game 721-722: Delaware at Drexel
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 47.759; Drexel 58.748
Dunkel Line: Drexel by 11
Vegas Line: Drexel by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Drexel (-7 1/2)
Game 723-724: Central Michigan at Toledo
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 43.933; Toledo 53.358
Dunkel Line: Toledo by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Toledo by 4
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (-4)
Game 725-726: Colorado at Texas Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 49.220; Texas Tech 61.427
Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 12
Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (-10)
Game 727-728: NC State at Duke
Dunkel Ratings: NC State 61.824; Duke 82.342
Dunkel Line: Duke by 20 1/2
Vegas Line: Duke by 18
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-18)
Game 729-730: Virginia at Maryland
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 61.174; Maryland 67.467
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 6
Vegas Line: Maryland by 9
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (+9)
Game 731-732: Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 46.281; Northern Illinois 49.910
Dunkel Line: Northern Illinois by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Michigan (+4 1/2)
Game 733-734: Michigan at Penn State
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 64.766; Penn State 67.700
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 3
Vegas Line: Penn State by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-2 1/2)
Game 735-736: DePaul at South Florida
Dunkel Ratings: DePaul 51.886; South Florida 64.665
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 13
Vegas Line: South Florida by 6
Dunkel Pick: South Florida (-6)
Game 737-738: Tennessee at Vanderbilt
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 66.548; Vanderbilt 68.950
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 2
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (+2)
Game 739-740: Air Force at Colorado State
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 53.166; Colorado State 55.566
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 6
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+6)
NHL
Columbus at Edmonton
The Blue Jackets are coming off a 6-5 win at Vancouver and look to build on their 8-4 record after allowing 4 goals or more in their previous game. Columbus is the underdog pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Jackets favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+130).
Game 1-2: Anaheim at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 12.429; NY Rangers 11.101
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-150); 5
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+130); Over
Game 3-4: Montreal at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 12.954; Atlanta 11.035
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-175); 6
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-175); Over
Game 5-6: Carolina at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 10.022; Pittsburgh 11.632
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-155); 6
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-155); Under
Game 7-8: Washington at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 11.145; Ottawa 11.631
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+130); Over
Game 9-10: Los Angeles at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 10.224; Minnesota 12.708
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-185); 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-185); Under
Game 11-12: Columbus at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 12.961; Edmonton 11.495
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+130); Under
Game 13-14: Detroit at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.813; Phoenix 11.463
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-180); Over
Game 15-16: Vancouver at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 10.459; San Jose 13.368
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 3; 6
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-230); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-230); Over
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Ohio State
A royal battle looms in Champaign when the Buckeyes meet the Illini in a game that will likely see the winner scoring less than 70 points. Ohio State, averaging 61 PPG against lined foes this season, has proved its road pedigree with wins at Miami Florida and at Notre Dame this campaign. The Buckeyes are 28-18 ATS on the road under Thad Matta, including 9-3 ATS when taking 3 or more points in Big 10 play. On the flip side, Illinois was just 5-16 SU and 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games against .760 or greater conference foes at press time. Bucks make it 6 wins in a row while improving to 5-1 ATS in this series in this defensive slugfest.
Jim Feist
ATLANTA HAWKS at CHICAGO BULLS
Take: CHICAGO BULLS
A battle of young, athletic teams. Chicago is on a 2-2 SU/ATS run, beating the Raptors and Cavaliers as underdogs, while playing a close one yesterday at New York. Luol Deng and rookie Derrick Rose each had 20 points, plus they are getting their defense in gear, allowing 3 straight opponents under 99 before allowing 102 points, 43% shooting to the uptempo Knicks. Their frontcourt depth is much better now with Drew Gooden back. They clobbered the Knicks on the glass, 58-41! Atlanta has been great at home, but weak on the road (8-12). They won at home yesterday but failed to cover again, now on a 2-7 ATS run. Play the Bulls.
Dave Cokin
AKRON / OHIO
Take AKRON
The MAC is way down this season, and it's a virtual certainty that only one team will receive an NCAA Tourney invite come March Madness. Whatever strength there is in the league is in the Eastern Division, with both Akron and Ohio among the legit contenders to win the league this season. Tonight's battle in Oxford figures to be a very tight game, but it's one I think the visiting Zips have a slim edge in. Akron takes better care of the ball, and they're the better defensive team. The Zips have been guilty of allowing too many second chance baskets this year, but that may not be a huge problem tonight as the Bobcats are not very good on the offensive boards. Akron grades out as the slightly superior team overall and I think the Zips are a decent value as road dogs in this spot.
Cajun Sports CBB
Delaware Hens vs. Drexel Dragons -7.5
PLAY: 2* Delaware Blue Hens +7.5
Daskalakis Athletic Center will be the site of tonights Colonial Athletic Association matchup between the host Drexel Dragons and the visiting Delaware Blue Hens.
The Blue Hens enter tonights contest with an 8-11 SU and 9-5 ATS record on the season. When they take to the highway they have posted a record of 4-5 SU but a very solid 5-1 ATS. Delaware is averaging 71.7 points per game on the road this season versus teams that allow 68.3 points per game. Defensively the Hens are allowing 72.9 points per game on the highway this year.
Drexel has posted a record of 8-8 SU although they have been very strong against the spread this season with a 10-5 ATS record. When the Dragons are the host they have a record of 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS this season. Drexel is only averaging 59.0 points per game at home on thirty-three percent shooting and this has come against teams that allow almost ten more points per game with an average of 68.2 points. This is one of the reasons for their .500 SU record this season and could very well be the reason they struggle tonight.
Drexel is coming off a road game at UNC-Wilmington where they were a 6.5 point road favorite and got the win and cover with a final score of 76 to 52. The key for us is they held Wilmington to 28.6 percent from the field and we know that Drexel is 5-17 ATS after a game where they held their opponent to 33 percent or less since 1997. In fact they have held their last three opponents to less than 40 percent from the field and they struggle in their next game going 1-9 ATS in those contests.
Drexel is 0-9 ATS when playing at home after allowing 60 points or less in two straight games. They seem to struggle after huge defensive performances as well as being a favorite in consecutive games, where they are 0-6 ATS when playing at home. We see that they also have problems when playing their first game back at home after a road contest, posting a record of 3-12 ATS in this situation over the last three seasons.
For Drexel the role of conference favorite has also been a problem especially off a SU win and going in their last game, they are 1-12 ATS in this situation their last 13 times to post. If they happen to be at home in this situation their record is 1-8 ATS and if they are facing tonights opponent they are also 1-8 ATS.
Delaware has had success against this Drexel team at home and on the road as they are 2-0 ATS when playing at Drexel and 4-1 ATS the last three years overall. The fact that Drexel has trouble shooting plays right into the hands of the Blue Hens as they are 12-2 ATS versus teams that are shooting <=42 percent the last three years. One of Drexels strengths has been outrebounding their opponents by 4+ rebounds per game, and this also is a strength for the Hens as they are 19-5 ATS versus teams who outrebound their opponents by four or more per game.
Finally we see that Delaware is active in a College Basketball System that tells us to Play Against CBB home teams after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against an opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, 36-12 ATS since 1997.
With the linesmaker giving us 7.5 points when our Team Performance Ratings Index shows that the Dragons should only be favored by 2 points we will take the points here as the Blue Hens surprise the host and keep this one real close.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) Delaware Hens 67 Drexel Dragons 68
Bobby Maxwell
Minnesota at UTAH -9'
Tonight we're on the NBA hardwood for a FREE winner on the Jazz as they are hosting the Timberwolves in Salt Lake City.
Utah is 15-4 at home this season and they have been a covering machine in Salt Lake City, going 51-24-2 ATS in their last 77 home games. We'll take our chances with them tonight against Minnesota and lay the chalk.
The Jazz already own a 99-96 road win over the T'Wolves but failed to cover as a six-point road chalk. But at home they have absolutely dominated Minnesota, scoring a 117-100 win as 16 1/2-point favorites last time these two met in Utah.
The Jazz fell to Dallas on Saturday 115-108 in Texas as a five-point underdog, but they have rattled off five straight at home, going 3-2 ATS in the process. They seem to have no problem putting up points on the home court, getting at least 112 in four of the last five in front of the home crowd.
Minnesota has actually won seven of their last eight, including wins at Phoenix and against the Clippers. But these guys are still learning to play together and even the best teams don't do well in Utah.
We'll lay the chalk with the Jazz in this one. Look for a 15-point win.
4♦ UTAH
Jeff Benton
Creighton at EVANSVILLE +2
Let’s build on my 18-8 run with College Hoops freebies as we head to the Missouri Valley Conference and play Evansville plus the points at home against Creighton.
At 14-5, Creighton is having a decent season, but that doesn’t mean this pointspread makes sense. For one thing, Evansville’s 12-5 record really isn’t any worse than the Bluejays’ mark. Both teams are 4-3 in Missouri Valley Conference play, with Creighton going 2-2 on the road (the two losses by 13 and 22 points) and the Purple Aces going 3-1 at home in league play.
Also, statistically, these teams are about virtual equals. Both teams shoot 43.7 percent from the field on offense, while Creighton allows the opposition to shoot 42.7 percent and Evansville allows 42.2 percent. And away from home, the Bluejays average 66.7 ppg on 41.2 percent shooting and give up 66.9 ppg on 43.1 percent, while Evansville puts up 68.4 ppg on its own floor (45.2 percent) and gives up 59.7 ppg (38.3 percent). Again, I ask, why is Creighton favored tonight?
And when you look at the series history between these teams, you’ll see that the underdog has cashed in seven of the last nine meetings (Advantage: Evansville), the home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 (Advantage: Evansville) and Creighton has failed to cover in five of its last six trips to Evansville (Advantage: Evansville). In fact, the Purple Aces scored a 60-56 upset as a nine-point underdog in last year’s meeting in Evansville.
The wrong team is favored in this one, folks. So grab the value with the home underdog.
3♦ EVANSVILLE
Scott Delaney
Today's Selection
Take Western Michigan in Muncie, Indiana Tuesday Night, as I like the Broncos to score the win over Ball State.
Western Michigan rolls into this one a three-game win streak in conference play, and that's on the wood and at the window. And you have to wonder what's happened to the Cardinals, if the oddsmakers are going to make WMU a road favorite in Muncie, right?
Seriously, we're talking about a 6-10 team that has lost six of its eight road games. And though Ball State is 7-8 on the year, it is 4-4 at home.
Must be the fact Western Michigan has won four in a row in this series, covering three of those games. The Broncos are also on ATS runs of 4-1 in conference play and against teams with a losing record, while they're 5-2 versus the books overall.
On the other hand, Ball State is mired in spread skids of 16-35 at home, 2-5 off an ATS loss, 7-18 when hosting a team that loses on the road, 1-7 after a straight-up loss and 2-7 overall.
Lay the road chalk in this one.
WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS
Matt Rivers
For Tuesday take the points with the Pacers.
Sure San Antonio is far superior when compared with Indiana but there are some factors here which neutralize the Spurs advantage.
Both teams are on a tough back-to-back as Gregg Popovich' squad played on Monday in Charlotte while the Pacers played in New Orleans. I can see a sluggish effort from both teams meaning neither will exactly be firing away on all cylinders. Also San Antonio is playing a fourth game in five days and is back home after the three game road trip which more times than not that equals a non-cover as the first game back is never easy for various reasons.
Duncan, Parker and Ginobili are not exactly spring chickens anymore and I don't see those guys putting on an offensive clinic today in this spot. I do understand how Indiana is extremely challenged defensively but they are an improving team that also can score some points led by a budding star in Danny Granger along with Mike Dunleavy, Jr., TJ Ford and others. In the end I can see this thing closer than the experts seem to believe as the fresher Pacers stick around and are in this thing throughout.
Big Al McMordie
Michigan vs. Penn State
Play: Penn State -3
At 9 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over my alma mater, Michigan. Certainly, John Beilein's Wolverines are one of the best early-season stories in College Basketball, as Beilein's lifted a once-proud program to play its best basketball in years. Michigan already owns wins over Top-5 squads Duke and UCLA, and cracked the Top 25 earlier this month. But tonight's game in Happy Valley will be difficult for the Wolves to win. First of all, Penn State is having a decent year, itself, with 14 wins in 19 games. And Penn State has excelled as a home favorite, and especially off a win, as the Nitts are 39-23 ATS in that situation since 1990. Lay the points.
Jimmy The Moose
Columbus Blue Jackets at Edmonton Oilers
Prediction: Columbus Blue Jackets
Both team's have been playong well coming into this one. The Blue Jackets and Oilers have both won 4 of their last 5 games. Columbus has won 6 of their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record. In their last 8 vs. Western Conference opponents the Jackets are 6-2. In their last 7 games following a win Columbus is 5-2. The Oilers have owned Columbus in the past but the Blue Jackets are a team that has more confidence in their game than they have ever had. Look for the upset in this one. Play on the Columbus Blue Jackets +.
Tom Freese
Michigan at Penn St
Penn State is 4-0 ATS their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and they are 6-1-1 ATS their last 8 Conference games. The Nittany Lions are 7-2-1 ATS their last 10 home games and they are 4-1-1 ATS their last 6 games overall. Michigan is 3-8 ATS their last 11 Conference games and they are 9-25-2 ATS their last 36 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Wolverines are 1-4-1 ATS their last 6 road games and the road team in this series is 0-6-1 ATS. PLAY ON PENN STATE -
Nelly
Virginia + over Maryland
Maryland is an intriguing team with decent talent but there is not a lot of size on the squad and the Terrapins are too reliant on the 3-point shot to be a consistent winner. Maryland is 10-1 at home this season but six of those wins came in unlined games and only narrow wins over Georgia Tech and Michigan could be considered impressive. Maryland also enters this game off two tough losses falling in OT against Florida State and losing by two at Miami. The Terps had no business forcing OT last week after trailing severely most of the second half but caught a few shots late to pull even before eventually wearing out. Virginia was throttled in its last game but the Cavaliers faced North Carolina coming off back-to-back losses. Virginia played respectably close for most of that game and also played tough in the other two ACC games this season losing by three at Virginia Tech and winning at Georgia Tech. Virginia also played close at Syracuse and Minnesota this season so they have shown the ability to be competitive in road games. This is not a taxing travel situation and Maryland's defense has struggled in recent games. Virginia has won S/U and ATS three of the last four times these teams have met and Maryland is just 3-8 ATS on the season, grossly underachieving relative to expectations. Virginia is the type of team that should stay close here and could have a good chance at an upset in what has been historically a very low scoring series.
Matt Fargo
Western Michigan at Ball State
Prediction: Western Michigan
We catch a great number with a team that is on the rise and that is a clear buy signal. Western Michigan got off to a slow start and that is why the line is as low as it is. The Broncos were picked by many to win the MAC West and a lot of people were turned off by their 4-10 start. The Broncos were unable to get into any early season rhythm as they were playing all over the place as they have had a stretch of 12 games in 12 different cities since November 16th. They have now put together three straight wins and are atop the MAC West. The Broncos are the only unbeaten team in the MAC West, and they have a chance to further distance themselves with a victory tonight as a win already puts them in front by two games. Ball St. is playing pretty admirably right now but how long can this possibly last? The Cardinals came into the season an inexperienced team and were picked by the majority to finish dead last in the MAC West. They have exceeded expectations with a 2-1 start in conference play but the opposition has been fairly tame. Wins over Eastern Michigan and Northern Illinois were good but those two teams are a combined 8-24. The lone loss came against Central Michigan who is 4-11 on the season. While Western Michigan?s overall record is not much better, we are talking about a completely different class here. The home floor is not going to aide Ball St. that much as it comes in 4-4 and has been outscored by 4.2 ppg and outshot by 7.2 percent at John E. Worthen Arena. The Cardinals will now have to move forward without leading scorer Anthony Newell who was lost for the season three games ago with a compound fracture in his leg. He was one of only two players on the team that were averaging double figures in scoring. Looking at the overall number do not show much of an advantage for Western Michigan in any one category with the exception of free throw shooting. The Broncos are shooting 70.4 percent and 70.3 percent on the road and in their last five games respectively while the Cardinals are hitting at clips of only 59.3 percent and 58.5 percent. Those discrepancies are pretty major and can no doubt decide the outcomes of games, especially late. Western Michigan also has an edge in offensive efficiency with a 98.5 rating compared to 93.4 for Ball St. That rating for the Cardinals is 10th in the MAC and 275th in the nation. Compounding that is the fact that the Broncos have held three straight opponents to less than 40 percent shooting from the field. Ball St. has scored more than 70 points only twice all season and has not done so in 11 straight games. The Broncos meanwhile have topped 70 points in each of their last three games. Defensively for the Cardinals, they have been solid for the most part, allowing 62 ppg on the season but they have given up 71 or more points in four of their last nine games after not doing so in any of their first six games. As mentioned, home court is not very beneficial here as Ball St. is just 9-22 ATS at home over the last three seasons. Western Michigan meanwhile is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games against teams averaging fewer than 64 ppg. This includes a 6-0 ATS mark on the road in the second half of the season. The Broncos have won six straight meetings in this series, going 5-1 ATS and they have gone 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight games played in Muncie. Western Michigan keeps its recent run going on Tuesday. 3* Western Michigan Broncos