Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, December 16th, 2017

Andre Ramirez
Dec 16 '17, 8:25 PM in 13h
NFL | Chargers vs Chiefs
Play on: OVER 46 -110

NFL 100 DIME TOTALS GOM

46 OVER

The Chargers just bumped their winning streak to four in a row last week with a 30-13 victory over Washington. Los Angeles jumped out to a 13-0 first-quarter lead, let the Redskins get within 13-6 then scored the next 17 points of the game, on its way toward an easy cover of a six-point spread.

On the day, the Chargers outgained Washington 488-201, made 24 first downs, compared to nine for the Redskins, won the ground battle 174-65 and ground out a 35-25 time of possession advantage.

So Los Angeles has now outgained each of its last four opponents, three of them by 130 yards and more. The Chargers are also 7-2 both SU and ATS over their last nine games.

At 7-6 overall, Los Angeles is tied for the lead in the AFC West with the Chiefs but does not own the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Chargers also trail 7-6 Buffalo by a tiebreaker in the battle for the second AFC wild-card spot. So this game is crucial for Los Angeles.

This game will be shootout, but I like the Chargers to pull the victory here. Chargers 34-23. Lay the money on the over.

Jack Jones
Dec 16 '17, 4:30 PM in 10h
NCAA-F | Marshall vs Colorado State
Play on: Colorado State -3½ -105 at BMaker

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Colorado State -3.5

The Colorado State Rams were expected to compete for a Mountain West title this season with all they had returning. But they failed to live up to expectations. They went just 7-5 in the regular season for a third consecutive year, and now Mike Bobo’s job is perhaps on the line.

There’s no question the Rams will be motivated. They have lost three straight bowl games overall, including the last two in the favorite role. They lost as 15-point favorites to Idaho last year as they failed to show up. This senior-laden team will want to get their first taste of a bowl victory in this one.

I also think Colorado State is undervalued after losing three of its final four games to close out the season. But one of those losses was a 52-59 (OT) loss to Boise State in which they blew a 24-point lead. That 52-point effort just shows the kind of firepower this offense has against a very good Boise State defense.

Senior QB Nick Stevens wants to try to impress NFL scouts one last time. He leads a potent Colorado State offense that will be the best unit on the field Saturday. The Rams average 501 yards per game and 6.7 per play. They have a balanced attack with 211 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry, as well as 290 passing yards per game and 8.5 per attempt. I believe they simply outscore Marshall here.

I also like the fact that Colorado State is familiar with the field for the New Mexico Bowl. The Rams beat the Lobos 27-24 in New Mexico earlier this season. They are used to the altitude, while Marshall is not. They will also have a lot more fans there as it’s a much shorter trip for Colorado State fans than Marshall fans.

Marshall feasted on an easy early schedule to get off to a 6-1 start. But the Thundering Herd came back down to earth down the stretch against some better competition. They went just 1-4 in their final five games. Now they have a laundry list of injuries and possible suspensions, most notably on the offensive and defensive lines.

The Thundering Herd have a poor offense and won’t be able to keep up. They average just 370 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play. They do have a good defense, but they haven’t seen many offenses as potent as Colorado State this season.

The Rams are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record. Colorado State is 16-6-1 ATS in its last 23 non-conference games. We are getting the better team here in the Rams at just over a field goal, and they’ll be highly motivated while also playing in familiar surroundings. Bet Colorado State Saturday.

Bobby Conn
Dec 16 '17, 2:30 PM in 8h
NCAA-F | Georgia State vs Western Kentucky
Play on: Western Kentucky -6 -115 at betonline

1* Free Play on Western Kentucky -6 -115

Larry Ness
Dec 16 '17, 8:00 PM in 13h
NCAA-F | Middle Tennessee State vs Arkansas State
Play on: Arkansas State -3½ -110 at GTBets

This is a 1* Free Play on Arkansas State (8:00 EST).

The 6-6 MTSU Blue Raiders get ready to battle 7-4 Arkansas State in the Camellia Bowl this weekend and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Red Wolves.

MTSU comes in having won three of its last four, while Arkansas State will be eager to get back with one more victory here after falling to Troy in its regular season finale.

The Blue Raiders have a balanced rushing and passing offense. QB Brent Stockskill took over half way through the year and sports a 14/5 TD/INT. This team is used to outscoring its competition, so its defense is the weak point.

Arkansas State is another team with an explosive offense. QB Justice Hansen averages 330 passing yards, to go along with 35 rushing yards per game. In the end Hansen posted a total of 34 TD’s combined through the air and on the ground this season. Like their counterpart today, the Red Wolves weakness is on the defensive side of the ball, but the unit is a step up, having forced 10 fumbles and 11 INT’s this year.

I’ll point out as well that MTSU is 0-4 ATS in its last four bowl games, while Arkansas State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a favorite.

Hansen has only been sacked 27 times this year and the Blue Raiders don’t have much of a pass rush. Simply put, I think the Red Wolves have a distinct advantage in at least two of the three phases and because of that, I’ll indeed recommend a second look at Arkansas State in the Camellia Bowl this year.

Good luck…Larry

Scott Spreitzer
Dec 16 '17, 4:30 PM in 10h
NCAA-F | Marshall vs Colorado State
Play on: Marshall +4 -110 at Bovada

I'm recommending a play on Marshall plus the points in Saturday's New Mexico Bowl. Marshall HC Doc Holliday knows a thing or two about preparing his team for postseason play, winning four straight bowl games. The seniors have added motivation, knowing if they beat Colorado State, they'll have completed a perfect 4-0 bowl sweep during their college careers. Things have not gone so well for the Rams under HC Mike Bobo, going 0-2 SU as bowl chalk the last two seasons. Bobo also faces changes to his coaching staff with his OC already heading to Tennessee and his DC retiring after this game. Then there's the motivation or possible lack thereof with CSU returning to Albuquerque...again! Between bowl games and conference play against New Mexico, this will be the 5th time they've played here in five seasons. We'll back Marshall plus the points in opening day bowl action. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

NOTE: Scott cashed 73% of his CFB bowl releases last year and his first of this postseason goes today...on Saturday! Grab it now!

Jimmy Boyd
Dec 16 '17, 8:00 PM in 13h
NCAA-F | Middle Tennessee State vs Arkansas State
Play on: Middle Tennessee State +4 -110 at BMaker

Free pick on Middle Tennessee +

While not my favorite play on Saturday, I see a ton of value with Middle Tennessee as a dog against Arkansas State in the Camellia Bowl. The Blue Raiders really came up short on expectations this year. A lot of people thought this team would win C-USA coming off an 8-5 season with star QB Brett Stockstill coming back. They went just 6-6 and finished a mere 4-4 in league play.

A big reason for their struggles was Stockstill suffered an injury in their 2nd game at Syracuse (won 30-23) and missed 6 games. By the time he returned they were just 3-5. He returned to the lineup and they went 3-1 to close out the season with the only loss coming in triple-overtime at WKU. In just 6 games, Stockstill threw for 14 TD's, including 7 in his last 3 games (also averaged 272 passing yards/game during this stretch).

Arkansas State finished 3rd in the Sun Belt at 6-2, but a big part of that is they didn't have to play Appalachian St (T-1st) and Georgia State (4th). They did play Troy (T-1st), but lost to them at home. This team gets a lot of love cause they can move the ball and score points. They were 11th in the country in total offense at 498.4 ypg and 15th in scoring at 38.5 ppg. Clearly a good offensive team, but I think a big reason they are ranked so high is the schedule they have played.

They did play Nebraska close in their opener, but that turned out to be a bad Cornhuskers team and they likely caught them a bit off guard. The game I think that says a lot about this team is their contest at SMU, which they lost 21-44. I think Stockstill torches this defense and the Red Wolves struggle to keep pace against a legit defense. Note that the Blue Raiders ranked 30th in total defense, giving up only 349 ypg. Take Middle Tennessee!

Dustin Hawkins
Dec 16 '17, 2:30 PM in 8h
NCAA-B | Notre Dame vs Indiana
Play on: Notre Dame -5½ -110 at BMaker

Free Play on Notre Dame -5½ -110

ASA
Dec 16 '17, 12:00 PM in 5h
NCAA-B | Detroit vs Michigan
Play on: Detroit +19½ -115 at betonline

their 10* CBB WATCH IN WIN BEST BET, then sit back and enjoy...

ASA PLAY ON Detroit +19.5 over Michigan, Saturday at 12 PM ET

After a brutal slate of 5 straight games vs top notch competition, we expect Michigan to exhale so to speak and have a letdown here. The Wolverines have played North Carolina, Indiana, Ohio State, UCLA, and Texas leading into this one. They are coming off a huge upset win @ Texas and we just don’t see them being at their peak physically or mentally in this game. There is a good chance Michigan will be without top scorer and rebounder Mo Wagner in this one after he injured his ankle @ Texas. Head coach John Beilein said Wagner is not anywhere near 100% and they will make a decision at game time. Don’t be surprised if he sits with much bigger games on the horizon. This game is at the Little Caesars Center, the brand new home of the Detroit Pistons. The Detroit players have been looking forward to this game since the season tipped over a month ago. Four of the five Titan starters are from Michigan and many had aspirations of playing for the Wolverines. The only non-Michigan bred starter is Kameron Chatman who transferred to Detroit after playing 2 years at Michigan. On top of that, Detroit’s head coach, Bacari Alexander, was an assistant at Michigan under Beilein from 2010 – 2016. He knows Michigan’s intricate offensive system as well as anyone giving Detroit an inside advantage here. It will be tough for Michigan to cover this huge number because Detroit can score. They average almost 90 PPG and have 5 guys averaging at least 10 PPG. This sets up as a very dangerous game for the Wolves facing an opponent who is viewing this as their “game of the year”. Too many points here in a game we feel will be much tighter than the number.

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Saturday, December 16, 2017

12/16 05:25 PM PT / 8:25 PM ET

NFL (305) LOS ANGELES CHARGERS VS (306) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Take: (305) LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Reason: Your free play for Satudray, December 16, 2017 is in the NFL contest between the Chargers and the Chiefs. Thiis is a huge game for these two teams and their respective playoff chances. It wasn't too long ago that the Chiefs were 4-0 and the Chargers 0-4. Now, these teams are both tied for the AFC lead. This game will have all the atmosphere of a playoff game. The Chiefs have a terrible rush defense, 30th in the league. The Chiefs offensive line will also have to contend with a very good Charges defensive rush, tied for fifth with 37 sacks. The Chargers are 1-7 O/U in their last eight games and 0-4 O/U in their last four away games. The Chiefs are 1-4 O/U in their last five games, 6-14 O/U their last 20 at home vs a team with a winning record. In addition, the Chiefs are 19-42 O/U in their last 61 home games. With five of the last seven in this series going UNDER, I'm sticking with the UNDER here on Saturday.

North Texas vs. TROY (-7) - at New Orleans, LA
By Tommy Brunson

It's the New Orleans Bowl from the Big Easy, and here we have a matchup of a pair of teams that used to be conference-rivals as North Texas takes on Troy.

When these teams played in the Sun Belt Conference, it was the Trojans holding the upper-hand, as Troy captured 7 of the 8 meetings straight up between 2005-12. True, that has been more than a couple of years ago, but I am counting on Troy and their superior defense to take care of business in NOLA this Saturday afternoon, much the way they did last season in the Dollar General Bowl when they took down MAC rep Ohio U, 28-23.

The Trojans enter this year's bowl game riding a 6-game winning streak, and have covered in each of their last 3 wins - all as the favorite. It is a Troy team that went into Baton Rouge in late September and upset LSU, 24-21 as the near 3-TD underdog. Now they did suffer a "letdown" the following week against South Alabama, but all told, Troy ended things with 10 wins in their 12 games. Their defense did not allow more than 25 points in ANY of their games this year, and held 6 of their last 9 foes to 19 points or less! That's solid defense.

Compare that to the Mean Green/Eagles of North Texas who allowed 30 points or more 7 times in 13 games this year, and you can see why North Texas is getting around a touchdown today. Remember that all 4 of North Texas' losses this season were by wide margins - 17-points or more - so don't fret about laying the wood with Troy in this spot.

North Texas may be a little more dangerous on offense, but the Troy defense is the tide-turner today.

Lay it with the Trojans!

4* TROY

Marshall (+3') vs. COLORADO ST. - At Albuquerque, NM
By Tommy Brunson

One of the first things I look for come this time of the season - bowl season, is how schools have fared in the past in their bowl games, as some coaches just seem to do a better job than other coaches, as some teams are just ready to "go bowling" while others seem happy to be there and enjoy their end of the season "perk trip".

In this New Mexico Bowl we have a good example of the theory I just mentioned, as both Marshall and Colorado State play this one in Albuquerque with identical 7-5 ledgers, but that is about where the similarities end, as it is clear Thundering Herd head coach Doc Holliday gets his teams prepared a little better than Rams head coach Mike Bobo.

Marshall did not make it to a bowl game last season, as they finished 2016 just 3-9 on the year. The Herd though have won and covered their previous 4 bowl games under Holliday in his 8th season at the helm! That's pretty darn solid when you consider a play today on Marshall gets you some solid points to work with.

One of the reasons Colorado State is listed as this "big" of a favorite is because they are familiar with the venue having won a regular season game on this field versus the Lobos of New Mexico. Do keep in mind that bowl games and Mike Bobo have NOT been a winning mix, as this will be the Rams 5th straight bowl trip, and they come in at 0-4 against the spread, losing their last 3. Last season the Rams allowed a whopping 61-points to Idaho in the Famous Potato Bowl! The Rams last bowl win came on this field in 2013, but they did not cover that game.

I see a similar outcome today, as the Rams may have a slight advantage on offense, but the Thundering Herd does own the better defense and special teams - making the points that much more valuable.

Colorado State failed their last 6 games against the spread leading up to this Saturday contest, and a look at the Herd's last 4 games shows none decided by more than 5-points either way. Marshall also covered ALL 5 tries this season when installed as the underdog.

I like Marshall to cover again.

2* MARSHALL (On a 1* to 5* basis)

L.A. Chargers (-1) at KANSAS CITY
By Jeff Benton

Your Saturday freebie is the Chargers to keep on charging as they take over first place in the AFC West with the win at Kansas City.

Los Angeles is among the hottest teams in the NFL as we head down the stretch, as the Chargers hit Arrowhead Stadium riding a 4-game winning streak. They have also won 7 of their last 9 straight up, while covering in 7 of their last 9 contests.

Kansas City? Well, the Chiefs did record a home win over Oakland last Sunday to stop the bleeding, but there is no disguising the fact KC was once 5-0, and they now stand at 7-6. It doesn't take Einstein to see that that is a 2-6 slide their last 8 games straight up.

The Chiefs do own the last 7 series wins, but the Chargers have covered in their last pair of visits to Arrowhead Stadium.

Stick with the hot Bolts on Saturday night.

3* L.A. CHARGERS

Larry Hartstein NFL (57-47-4 5-5 L10)

Chicago +6.5

Emory Hunt NFL (39-29-3 7-3 L10)

Chicago +6