Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for from various handicappers and websites for Wednesday 1/2/19
Saturday, January 5, 2019
AFC – Indianapolis at Houston– 4:35 p.m. (ESPN)
Opening Line (12/30/18): Houston -2, 47 ½
Indianapolis Road Record: 4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS
Houston Home Record: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS
Head-to-Head: The visitor won and covered both games in the regular season but the first encounter from Indianapolis in Week 4 could’ve and probably should’ve been a tie. Colts head coach Frank Reich decided to go for a first down in overtime and the club missed, which allowed Houston to win 37-34 in the extra session. That victory helped the Texans run off nine straight wins but sure enough, Indy snapped that winning streak and got revenge in Week 14 with a 24-21 road win over Houston.
Colts quarterback Andrew Luck owns a 6-4 career record versus Houston which includes a 3-2 mark on the road. The last four meetings at Houston were decided by five points or less.
Playoff Notes: The Colts haven’t been in the playoffs since the 2014 regular season. That season, they defeated the Bengals in the Wild Card round at home before upsetting Denver on the road in the Divisional Playoffs. Unfortunately, the club was blasted 45-7 by the Patriots in the AFC Championship. Indianapolis is 3-3 with Luck in the playoffs, 2-1 in Wild Card games and 1-3 overall on the road.
Houston went 1-1 in last year’s postseason, defeating a short-handed Oakland squad 27-14 at home in the Wild Card before losing 34-16 at Foxboro in the Divisional round. Head coach Bill O’Brien is 1-2 all-time in the playoffs. Houston as a franchise is 3-4 overall, 3-1 at home.
Total Notes: The Texans saw the ‘under’ go 9-7 on the season and 5-3 at home. The defense surrendered 15.3 points per game in their final four at NRG Stadium, which led to a 3-1 ‘under’ record.
Indianapolis saw its total results go 8-8 this season, 4-4 both home and away. The Colts offense was a tad shakier on the road (24.2 PPG) but they posted 28 and 33 points in their last two games, which led to ‘over’ tickets.
Including a split in this year’s regular season meetings, the ‘under’ has gone 6-2 in the past eight encounters between the pair.
Saturday, January 5, 2019
NFC – Seattle at Dallas – 8:15 p.m. (FOX)
Opening Line (12/30/18): Dallas -3, 41 ½
Seattle Road Record: 4-4 SU, 4-3-1 ATS
Dallas Home Record: 7-1 SU, 5-2-1 ATS
Head-to-Head: The Seahawks and Cowboys hooked up at CenturyLink Field in Week 3 as Seattle took care of Dallas, 24-13 as one-point favorites. It was Seattle's first win of the season following an 0-2 start as Russell Wilson threw two touchdown passes for the Seahawks. Seattle jumped out to a 24-6 lead before Dallas scored its only touchdown late in the fourth quarter.
The Cowboys have lost each of the last three matchups with the Seahawks since 2015, while these teams last met in the playoffs in the famous Tony Romo fumble on the snap of the potential game-winning field goal in a 21-20 loss in the 2006 Wild Card round.
Playoff Notes: The Seahawks are back in the playoffs for the sixth time in the last seven seasons after missing the postseason in 2017. Seattle owns a perfect 3-0 record in its previous three Wild Card contests since 2012, while not losing in its first playoff game during this stretch.
Dallas is making its third playoff appearance since 2014, as the Cowboys were knocked out in the divisional playoffs by the Packers in the final seconds in 2016. In its previous appearance in the Wild Card round in 2014, the Cowboys edged past the Lions, 24-20, but failed to cash as six-point favorites.
Total Notes: After starting the season with a 5-2 mark to the 'under,' the Cowboys finished with 'overs' in five of the final nine contests. Dallas hit the 'over' in five of eight games at AT&T Stadium, while going 4-2 to the 'over' as a home favorite.
The Seahawks were also a strong 'under' team to start the season by cashing in six of the first eight games. However, Seattle closed with 'overs' in seven of the last eight contests, including 'overs' in its final three road affairs.
Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans Preview and Predictions Picks
Scheduled NRG Stadium Houston
The Houston Texans may have saved their season with an overtime win at Indianapolis in Week 4, but the Colts may have done the same by beating their AFC South rivals 10 weeks later to keep their playoff chances alive. The stakes will be considerably higher Saturday when the teams square off for the third time this season in the AFC wild card round in Houston.
"You know them well, and they know you well. You gotta fight to find ways to make slight changes, but don't go crazy," Indianapolis coach Frank Reich said. "You gotta avoid the mistake of, 'We gotta be drastically different just because they know us.'" The Texans prevented an 0-4 start to the season by outlasting the Colts 37-34 on Sept. 30 (as the Texans were -1 point favorite at intertops), a victory that spurred a nine-game winning streak and a worst-to-first finish in the division. Indianapolis avenged that defeat and ended Houston's nine-game run with a 24-21 road victory on Dec. 9 to ignite a season-closing four-game winning streak that locked up the No. 6 seed and a third meeting with the Texans. "Only 12 teams make it and you're bound to play somebody that you've already played. It's just the way it is," Houston coach Bill O'Brien said. "It is what it is. We know there are certain things that they're going to do."
TV: 4:35 p.m. ET, ABC, ESPN. LINE: Texans -1.5 O/U: 48.5
ABOUT THE COLTS (10-6): Andrew Luck missed the entire 2017 season due to recurring soreness following shoulder surgery, but finished with 4,593 yards and 39 touchdown passes while guiding Indianapolis to nine wins over its final 10 games. His favorite target is wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, who has been battling an ankle injury but still has his fifth 1,000-yard season (1,270) and burned the Texans for nine catches and 199 yards in Week 14. Tight end Eric Ebron had a career-best 13 touchdown catches, including one in each matchup versus Houston, while Marlon Mack rushed for nine touchdowns and had four 100-yard outings in his last 10 games. Rookie Darius Leonard, the league leader with 163 tackles, heads a defense that did not allow 30 points over the final 10 games after surrendering at least 34 points in four of the first six contests.
ABOUT THE TEXANS (11-5): Second-year quarterback Deshaun Watson, who had his rookie season derailed by a torn ACL in his knee and dealt with a partially collapsed lung earlier this year, threw for eight touchdowns and zero interceptions and rushed for four more scores over the final six games. DeAndre Hopkins had another monster season with 115 catches for 1,572 yards and 11 scores, finishing the season with 31 receptions and three straight 100-yard games after he was held to four catches and 36 yards by Indianapolis. A late-season ankle injury cost running back Lamar Miller a shot at 1,000 yards but he managed only 82 yards and a TD on 28 carries in both games against the Colts. J.J. Watt returned from two injury-plagued seasons to rack up 16 sacks for a defense that ranked third against the run (82.7 yards) but was vulnerable to the pass (260.4).
EXTRA POINTS
1. Luck has passed for 2,776 yards and 23 touchdowns in 10 career games versus Houston.
2. Watson is the first QB in league history to throw for at least 4,000 yards and 25 TDs and rush for at least 500 yards and five TDs.
3. Hilton has 41 catches for 933 yards and seven touchdowns in seven games at NRG Stadium.
PREDICTION: Colts 26, Texans 23
Seattle Seahawks vs Dallas Cowboys Preview and Predictions Picks
Scheduled AT&T Stadium Arlington
Ezekiel Elliott was a busy man this season, as the Pro Bowl running back recorded a league-high 1,434 rushing yards and team-best 77 receptions to help the Dallas Cowboys punch their ticket to the playoffs for the third time in five years. After sitting out the regular-season finale, a well-rested Elliott is expected to carry the mail on Saturday as the fourth-seeded Cowboys host the fifth-seeded Seattle Seahawks in an NFC wild-card game.
"Just knowing that we're going into these playoffs, I'm going to have the highest workload I probably had all season," said Elliott, who rushed for 127 yards in Dallas' 24-13 loss to Seattle on Sept. 23 (as the Cowboys were +2 point underdog at intertops). Dak Prescott (career-high 3,885 yards), who was intercepted twice and threw for just 168 yards in that contest, tossed a 32-yard scoring strike to Cole Beasley to cap a season-high four-touchdown performance in the waning moments of Sunday's 36-35 win over the New York Giants. While the Cowboys boast a 7-1 mark at AT&T Stadium and won seven of their last eight games overall, the Seahawks emerged victorious in six of their last seven contests to reach 10 wins and a playoff berth for the sixth time in Russell Wilson's seven seasons with the club. Wilson, who threw two of his NFL third-best 35 touchdown passes in Seattle's win over Dallas in Week 3, is just 3-3 with 11 TDs and 10 interceptions in his last six postseason starts (3-3).
TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Cowboys -1.5 O/U: 43
ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (10-6): Chris Carson (team-best 1,151 rushing yards) had a season-high 32 carries for 102 yards and a touchdown against Dallas, a performance that set the tone for what would become Seattle's top-ranked rushing offense (160.0 yards per game). "(The coaches) were talking about it the whole time of running the ball more and being a run team," the 24-year-old Carson said. "They finally started getting it going against the Cowboys and it's taken off ever since." Carson rushed for a career-best 122 yards and a score in Sunday's 27-24 triumph over Arizona, although he'll face a Dallas rush defense that has surrendered a league fifth-best 94.6 yards per contest. Tyler Lockett, who found the end zone in the encounter with the Cowboys, set career highs in receptions (57), receiving yards (965) and touchdown receptions (10) this season.
ABOUT THE COWBOYS (10-6): Amari Cooper has endeared himself to his new team by collecting 35 receptions for 551 yards and six touchdowns in five home games with Dallas since being acquired from Oakland. The 24-year-old Cooper led the Cowboys with 725 receiving yards despite appearing in just nine games, with Beasley (672) sitting close behind after his 94-yard effort versus the Giants nearly eclipsed the sum total (124) of his previous five contests. Defensive end Demarcus Lawrence capped his second straight Pro Bowl season by recording one of his team-best 10.5 sacks in each of the last two games. Linebacker Leighton Vander Esch registered 10 of his rookie franchise-record 140 tackles in the previous encounter with the Seahawks.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Seattle Pro Bowl LB Bobby Wagner had eight of his club-high 138 tackles against Dallas in Week 3.
2. Pro Bowl CB Byron Jones had two of his team-best 14 pass deflections for the Cowboys in the previous meeting with the Seahawks.
3. Seattle recorded a league-best plus-15 turnover differential this season.
PREDICTION: Cowboys 21, Seahawks 20
Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens Preview and Predictions Picks
The Los Angeles Chargers finished tied with the best record in the AFC but one loss over the final six games cost them a chance at the No. 1 overall seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Instead, the Chargers have to open the postseason on the road and will get a chance to avenge a Week 16 defeat when they visit the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday.
Although Los Angeles lost 22-10 -- a deceptive margin after a late fumble was returned for a score -- in the first matchup versus the Ravens, it will take a 7-1 road mark into the rematch in Baltimore. "We love coming into your place -- whichever team you may be -- and doing our thing," Chargers rookie safety Derwin James said. "Our motto around here is 'Any squad, any place,' that's what we say around here." The Ravens went 6-1 down the stretch after turning the offense over to rookie Lamar Jackson, who will become the youngest quarterback to start a playoff game. "It's just a name -- 'the playoffs,'" Jackson said. "You're trying to get the championship now. It was for us to get in it, and we're in it now, so we want the big thing. We want the big thing now."
TV: 1:05 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Ravens -3. O/U: 42
ABOUT THE CHARGERS (12-4): Philip Rivers had one of the finest seasons of his 15-year career, posting a passer rating of 105.5 while throwing for 4,308 with 32 touchdowns versus 12 interceptions, but Baltimore picked him off twice and held him to a season-low 181 yards. Running back Melvin Gordon rushed for 41 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries in Week 16 in his first game back after missing the previous three with an ankle injury, but he said this week that he feels much healthier entering the rematch. Keenan Allen is the favorite target of Rivers with 97 receptions for 1,196 yards and leads a talented receiving corps that could see the return of tight end Hunter Henry, sidelined since May with a torn ACL. Melvin Ingram, one of seven Chargers named to the Pro Bowl, and fellow defensive end Joey Bosa combined for 12.5 sacks for the NFL's No. 9 defense.
ABOUT THE RAVENS (10-6): Jackson relied just as much on his legs as his arm since taking over for an injured Joe Flacco, but he threw for a season-high 204 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers, who held him to a rushing low of 39 yards in his seven starts. Running back Gus Edwards moved into the starting lineup at the same time as Jackson and had three 100-yard games while never rushing for fewer than 67 yards, including 92 on 14 carries at Los Angeles. Kenneth Dixon had at least eight carries in all five games in December, rushing for 289 yards on 47 attempts, but neither John Brown, Michael Crabtree or Willie Snead has seen regular targets with Jackson at quarterback. Baltimore features the league's No. 1 overall defense, ranking fourth against the rush (82.9 yards), fifth versus the pass (210.0) and second in points allowed (17.9).
EXTRA POINTS
1. Rivers can become the fourth QB to post a passer rating of at least 115.0 in three straight playoff games.
2. Jackson was 4-0 at home, including three games with at least 90 yards rushing.
3. Gordon scored nine touchdowns in six road games this season.
PREDICTION: Chargers 20, Ravens 19
Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears Preview and Predictions Picks
The Chicago Bears opened the door for the Philadelphia Eagles to defend their Super Bowl crown with a suffocating performance against Minnesota in the regular-season finale. The third-seeded Bears bid to shut that door just as swiftly on Sunday when they host the sixth-seeded Eagles at Soldier Field in Chicago in an NFC wild-card game.
Mitchell Trubisky took a giant step forward following last year's rookie season, recording a franchise-best four games with a 120-plus quarterback rating while throwing for 24 touchdowns and rushing for three more as Chicago elevated from the NFC North's outhouse to the penthouse. Coach Matt Nagy stressed for Trubisky "to not change. For him to continue to do just what he does (and) don't put any extra added pressure on himself." Quarterback Nick Foles thrived under that glaring spotlight last season, guiding the "underdog" -- albeit top-ranked -- Eagles to three straight wins while securing Super Bowl MVP honors for himself in the process. The 29-year-old Foles (ribs) participated fully in Thursday's practice for Philadelphia, which returns to the postseason in consecutive years for the first time since the 2009-10 seasons and bids to become the first repeat Super Bowl champion since the 2003-04 New England Patriots.
TV: 4:40 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Bears -6. O/U: 41
ABOUT THE EAGLES (9-7): While Alshon Jeffery relished his meeting against his former team last year, Sunday's contest carries more weight since it's a playoff tilt as opposed to another battle against the Bears. "I don't have any feelings, honestly. It's a playoff game," said the 28-year-old Jeffery, who spent the first five years (2012-16) of his career in the Windy City. "... We're playing the Bears, but if we were playing anybody else, I still couldn't wait to play this game. I'm excited to be in the playoffs." Jeffery enjoyed one of the best postseasons in Eagles' history last winter, rolling up 219 receiving yards and three touchdowns in wins over Atlanta, Minnesota and New England. Pro Bowler Zach Ertz set an NFL record this season for catches (116) by a tight end to go along with a career-best 1,163 receiving yards.
ABOUT THE BEARS (12-4): Chicago's bread and butter is an aggressive defense that is ranked No. 1 in the NFL in points allowed (17.7), yards per play permitted (4.78), passing yards per play (5.29), takeaways (36) and interceptions (27). Trade acquisition Khalil Mack recorded 8.5 of his club-best 12.5 sacks and four forced fumbles at Soldier Field, helping the Bears to a 7-1 mark at home this season. The running game slowly gained traction, with rugged Jordan Howard boosting his touchdown total to a career-high nine with four in the last three games -- including a pair in Sunday's 24-10 victory versus the Vikings. Versatile Tarik Cohen provided a potent threat out of the backfield with 1,169 scrimmage yards (725 receiving, 444 rushing), becoming one of five Bears to earn Pro Bowl honors this season.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Philadelphia Pro Bowl DT Fletcher Cox notched three of his team-leading 10.5 sacks in Sunday's 24-0 win over Washington.
2. Chicago TE Trey Burton, who gained famed as the "quarterback" of the Philly Special in Super Bowl LII, had five receptions in each of his last two contests.
3. Philadelphia CB Rasul Douglas reeled in two of his club-best three interceptions in the last four games.
PREDICTION: Bears 24, Eagles 17
NFL
Long Sheet
Wildcard Round
Saturday, January 5
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INDIANAPOLIS (10 - 6) at HOUSTON (11 - 5) - 1/5/2019, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in home games revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-3 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SEATTLE (10 - 6) at DALLAS (10 - 6) - 1/5/2019, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 68-46 ATS (+17.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NFL
Wildcard Round
Trend Report
Saturday, January 5
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games
Indianapolis is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Indianapolis is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 12 games on the road
Indianapolis is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Houston
Indianapolis is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 14 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston Texans
Houston is 7-12-2 ATS in its last 21 games
Houston is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games at home
Houston is 3-8-2 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Indianapolis
Houston is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Houston is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Houston's last 14 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle's last 8 games
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Dallas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Dallas's last 25 games
Dallas is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Dallas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games at home
Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
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NFL's Top ATS Teams (based on cover %):
1. Bears 12-4 ATS
2. Seahawks 9-5-2 ATS
t3. Saints 10-6 ATS
t3. Browns 10-6 ATS
5. Chiefs 9-6-1 ATS
t6. 6 teams tied at 9-7 ATS (Chargers, Pats, Cowboys, Bengals, Washington, Lions)
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NFL's Top OVER Teams (based on Over %):
1. Chiefs 10-5-1
2. Jets 10-6
t3. Falcons 9-7
t3. Giants 9-7
t3. 49ers 9-7
t3. Seahawks 9-7
t3. Buccaneers 9-7
8. Bengals 8-6-2
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NFL's Top UNDER Teams (based on Under %):
1. Broncos 12-3-1
2. Patriots 11-5
t3. Lions 10-6
t3. Jaguars 10-6
t3. Vikings 10-6
t4. 8 teams tied at 7-9 (Cardinals, Ravens, Bills, Cowboys, Texans,Saints, Eagles, Redskins)
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By Kevin Rogers
The NFL playoffs kick off on Saturday afternoon with an AFC South battle between the Colts and Texans from NRG Stadium in Houston. Both these teams struggled out of the gate, but rebounded as the division sends two teams to the playoffs for the second consecutive season after Jacksonville and Tennessee made it in 2017.
HOW THEY GOT HERE
The Colts (10-6 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) finally had a healthy Andrew Luck after the former top pick missed last season with a shoulder injury. Indianapolis fell into a 1-5 hole through six games, with the lone victory coming at Washington in Week 2 as six-point underdogs, 21-6. The Colts dropped their first two home games to the Bengals and Texans, while allowing at least 34 points in four of those defeats.
However, Frank Reich’s team would turn things around by picking up five consecutive wins to climb above the .500 mark, as the offense posted 27 points or more in each of those victories. After getting blanked at Jacksonville in Week 13 in a 6-0 setback, the Colts rebounded with four more wins to close out the season, including back-to-back victories over the Texans and Cowboys. Indianapolis clinched its first playoff berth since 2014 in a Week 17 winner-take-all triumph at Tennessee, 33-17 to finish 4-2 inside the AFC South.
The Texans (11-5 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) were a mess after three weeks, losing to the Patriots, Titans, and Giants to fall to 0-3. It looked like a long season for Houston, but the Texans ran of nine consecutive wins, including back-to-back overtime triumphs over the Colts and Cowboys to start the hot streak. During that winning streak, Houston limited opponents to 17 points or less six times, while picking up three double-digit home victories over Miami, Tennessee, and Cleveland.
Houston split its final four games, including losses by three points or less to Indianapolis and Philadelphia. The Texans wrapped up their third AFC South title in the last four seasons, while picking up the second-most wins in franchise history with 11 victories, coming one short of the 12-4 mark in 2012.
WHO TO WATCH
Luck threw for the second-most touchdowns in a season in his career (39), including an eight-game stretch in which he tossed at least three touchdowns. Running back Marlon Mack is coming off a career season by racking up 908 rushing yards in only 12 games, including a 139-yard effort against Dallas in the Week 15 home shutout. T.Y. Hilton is fighting an ankle injury, but the wide receiver eclipsed the 100-yard mark in each matchup against Houston, as he hauled in nine catches for 199 yards in the Week 14 triumph at Houston.
Deshaun Watson started all 16 games for Houston after missing the second half of 2017 with a torn ACL. The Texans’ quarterback threw 26 touchdowns and was intercepted only nine times, while rushing for five scores. Lamar Miller finished 27 rushing yards short of his third career 1,000-yard rushing season, but was limited to 82 yards in two meetings against Indianapolis. DeAndre Hopkins pulled in a career-high 111 receptions for 1,572 yards, including three straight 100-yard games to close the season.
HOME/ROAD SPLITS
Indianapolis finished 4-4 away from Lucas Oil Stadium, while the OVER cashed in four of those road affairs. The Colts managed a 3-2 ATS mark in the role of a road underdog, including outright victories at Washington and Houston.
The Texans won six of eight games at NRG Stadium, but covered in only four of those games. Houston began the season 0-3 ATS at home before posting a 4-1 ATS mark in its final five home contests. The UNDER hit in five of eight home games, including in two of three affairs with AFC South opponents.
SERIES HISTORY
These two rivals split a pair of three-point outcomes with the road team coming out on top each time. In Week 4 at Lucas Oil Stadium, the Texans entered Indianapolis in must-win mode after starting 0-3. Houston jumped out to a commanding 28-10 third quarter lead highlighted by two Watson touchdown passes and a Watson touchdown scamper.
However, Luck led the Colts back on a 21-3 run to end regulation, highlighted by a touchdown catch by Nyheim Hines with 45 seconds remaining. Indianapolis struck first in overtime with an Adam Vinatieri field goal, but Houston tied it with a field goal, then picked up the rare second three-pointer in the extra session to edge the Colts, 37-34 to cash as one-point favorites and hit the OVER of 48 ½. Luck finished with 464 yards passing and four touchdowns, but Indianapolis rushed for 41 yards without Mack.
The Colts picked up revenge in the second matchup in Houston in Week 14 with a 24-21 victory as four-point underdogs. After Houston scored an early touchdown, Indianapolis struck back for 17 second quarter points, as the Colts led the rest of the way. Luck finished one yard shy of 400 yards passing as Indianapolis captured its fourth win at Houston in the last five visits.
PLAYOFF HISTORY
Indianapolis has reached the postseason for the fourth time in Luck’s career since 2012, as the Colts have won two of three times in the Wild Card round. Both victories came at home, as Indianapolis lost in its last road Wild Card affair at Baltimore in 2012 by a 24-9 score. For the fifth time since 2011, the Texans are in the playoffs, as Houston owns a 3-1 record at home in the Wild Card round. Houston and Indianapolis are meeting for the first time ever in the playoffs, while the Texans are facing a division foe in the postseason also for the first time.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson checks in with his thoughts on the initial Wild Card matchup, “Both defenses were very effective against the run in this rivalry as in the two games combined the Colts rushed for a total of 91 yards on 40 carries just fewer than 2.3 yards per rush. Houston was only slightly better on the ground with 208 rushing yards vs. the Colts over 60 carries just fewer than 3.5 yards per rush. Houston finished first in the NFL in allowing just 3.4 yards per rush on the season while only allowing eight rushing touchdowns this season. The Colts weren’t far behind finishing sixth in the NFL allowing 3.9 yards per rush.”
The quarterback play will be the difference in game, according to Nelson, “Luck is 3-3 in playoff games in his career with two road wins and he is the more established passer. Watson has won on the big stage in college and was sixth in the NFL in QB Rating this season. Both quarterbacks had good numbers in the regular season meetings with just one interception each. Luck is more prone to interceptions but Watson takes a great deal of sacks and has had a high fumble count. Watson was sacked 12 times in the two games between these teams while Luck was sacked just six times.”
FUTURE ODDS
The Colts and Texans are both two of the biggest long shots to win Super Bowl LIII as each squad sits at 25/1 at BetOnline.ag. Indianapolis and Houston are each 10/1 to capture the AFC title, while the Texans have dropped from a 2 ½-point favorite to a one-point favorite at most spots with a total of 48.
By Tony Mejia
Seattle at Dallas (-2, 43.5), 8:15 pm ET, FOX
The Cowboys were the NFC’s worst division winner. They pulled got to 10 wins by pulling off an “upset” of the Giants in East Rutherford in Week 17, playing regulars Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper and hero Cole Beasley far longer than anyone expected to emerge with a 36-35 win.
It could’ve certainly come back to bite them had anyone suffered an injury, but since they won, the Cowboys take the field with additional swagger, having won seven of eight contests to close the regular season. The outlier came in a 23-0 loss at the Colts where the offense never found a spark.
Dallas is 7-1 at home, which affords it additional confidence. Its lone loss at AT&T Stadium also came in a game where Prescott and Co. were blanked in the second half. Tennessee did the trick on a Monday night back in early November, continuing a bleak trend despite the acquisition of Cooper that had the Cowboys looking like they would be watching games in January, not hosting them. They scored 17 or fewer points in five of their first eight contests. Over the season’s second-half, it only happened twice.
Seattle was one of those teams that put the shackles on the Cowboys early in the season, handing them a 24-13 loss as a parting gift on their visit to the Pacific Northwest in Week 3. Prescott was picked off twice and threw for just 168 yards. He was sacked five times and harassed even more. Despite 127 yards on just 16 carries from Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas failed to find the end zone until the fourth quarter. Tight end Geoff Swaim caught a team-best five balls. Beasley led all wide receivers with just three receptions.
If the Seahawks are going to pull the upset, their defense will likely have to again rise to the occasion. Beyond Cooper not being involved in that first encounter, another significant difference between today and their Sept. 23 meeting is that Earl Thomas won’t be setting the tone in the defensive backfield like he did against the team he publicly asked to trade for him weeks earlier. He picked off two passes that day, sending a clear message. The following Sunday, he was lost for the season with a broken bone in his left leg. With safety Kam Chancellor on IR and Richard Sherman playing for the 49ers, the Legion of Boom was officially no more come Week 4.
From that standpoint, the job Pete Carroll has done pulling 10 wins and a playoff appearance out of a team many expected would fall off has to rank among his top coaching jobs to date. If he can advance out of this weekend, it would solidify that argument. The defense lost LB Mychal Kendricks last month but comes into this contest relatively healthy.
K.J. Wright, who was out of the lineup for a large chunk of the season, finally looked like his old self earlier last month and is now expected to be a force next to Bobby Wagner, who was again voted to the Pro Bowl. A secondary tasked with keeping Cooper from enjoying a big night will get starting safety Tedric Thompson back from a chest injury and has upgraded corner Shaquill Griffin to probable following an ankle sprain suffered against the Cardinals last weekend. For more on injuries, be sure to read below.
The Seahawks have actually given up 24 or more points in seven of nine games since the beginning of November, so we’ll see if having a relatively healthy group helps Carroll and defensive coordinator Ken Norton, Jr. find the right formula to lock in here. It’s no great mystery that the Cowboys are going to want to ride Elliott to ensure he takes the pressure off Prescott. The NFL’s top rusher for the second time in three years finished with 1,434 yards despite being inactive for last Sunday’s win due to various ailments that Dallas is hoping he’s conquered entering this one. Although he’s only got 100-yard rushing game over his past four games, Elliott has become much more of a receiver out of the backfield, making 52 of his 77 receptions this season over his last eight outings.
Seattle will ride the prolific arm of Russell Wilson, who threw for a career-best 35 touchdowns, third-best in the league and a Seahawks all-time record. He was picked off just seven times. The Seahawks flirted with matching an NFL record for fewest turnovers in a season before Wilson was picked off by Arizona, but there’s no question they’re alive because they didn’t beat themselves often. Leading the NFL in rushing also helped despite having multiple running backs in place due to various injuries. Chris Carson, the preferred option who wound up with a team-best 1,151 yards after surpassing the 100-yard mark in each of Seattle’s final three games, is healthy and should be a handful for a Cowboys defense that ranked fifth against the run in the entire NFL.
Elliott will be facing a Seattle defense that barely finished in the top-half (13th) against the ground attack and was right around the middle-of-the-pack against the pass and in total yards allowed.
Wilson will be performing against a Dallas defense that took aim at him all afternoon despite losing the previous meeting, so an improved offensive line will be under the microscope here. They allowed their quarterback to be sacked six times last week by the Cards. There are developments up front to be wary of in the injury report below.
The Cowboys should continue to blitz often based on how effective sending extra defenders has been for them this season, but Wilson’s ability to improvise makes him extremely dangerous. He’ll be looking to beat a secondary that has been stingy all season, led by corner Byron Jones, who has been beaten for just a pair of touchdowns all season.
This will be the second playoff meeting between the teams, who met in 2006 in a game memorable for Tony Romo dropping the ball on a hold for a key late field-goal try in a 21-20 loss in Seattle. Keep reading below for more info on the series between these teams.
Prescott will be playing in just his second playoff game here and threw three touchdown passes in a strong performance against Green Bay back in 2016. Wilson, a Super Bowl champ back in 2014 who has thrown for 20 scores and run for two more over a dozen career postseason appearances. He’s 8-4 and is perfect in playoff openers. Considering the 30-year-old is playing the sharpest football of his career, he’s going to be tough to stop if this game is tight down the stretch.
On the other hand, Prescott finished off five game-winning drives this season, third behind just Drew Brees and Deshaun Watson, and he led the Cowboys to a game-tying drive against the Packers in his only playoff game as a rookie. At home, he’s also likely to be formidable if the game is on the line.
While the kickers are polar opposites in 40-year-old veteran Sebastian Janikowski and talented Brett Maher, who finally stuck after being cut in camp and a career in the CFL, both are very capable of a game-winning kick. The spread here looks right. This is basically a pick’em that the Cowboys deserve to be favored in as the home team, but no one will be surprised if it comes down to who possesses the ball last.
Seattle Seahawks
Projected season win total: 8 (Over +100, Under -120)
Preseason odds to win NFC West: 11/2
Odds to win NFC (Preseason/Current): 30/1 to 12/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (Preseason/Current): 60/1 to 25/1
Dallas Cowboys
Season win total: 8.5 (Over -120, Under +100)
Preseason Odds to win NFC East: 7/2
Odds to win NFC (Preseason/Current): 15/1 to 12/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (Preseason/Current): 30/1 to 25/1
FUTURES OUTCOMES/LINE MOVEMENT
If you bet on these teams to have winning seasons, you're sitting pretty since both outperformed expectations in season win totals provided by the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook. The Seahawks failed to cash any divisional futures since the favored Rams (1-to-2) held serve, but Dallas cashed at +350 over the favored defending champion Eagles (5-to-7).
Playoff props at Westgate paid out +160 on the Cowboys reaching the postseason and +280 on the Seahawks. Buy a friend a beverage if you were on the winning side. Fading these teams to reach the playoffs stung. A 'no' call on Dallas playing into January cost you -190, while Seattle was an even costlier loss (-360). The Cowboys are roughly in the same neighborhood odds-wise to win the NFC and Super Bowl as they were entering Week 1, while the odds were far more lucrative for the Seahawks, who now have identical odds as Dallas.
As far as this matchup is concerned, the Cowboys opened at -2.5 before dropping all the way down to 2.5 and eventually reaching the level where it currently resides at -2.
Dallas opened at -140/-150 on the money line and is available at -130 at the moment. If you like the home 'dog outright, a payout on a Seahawks win will get you +110 to +120 depending on the shop.
INJURY CONCERNS
The Seahawks came into the week hoping of guard J.R. Sweezy to be healthy enough to make an impact at his position next to left tackle Dwayne Brown after he missed time with a foot injury. Brown is good to go after dealing with knee soreness. Guard D.J. Fluker is also set to play after a hamstring issue. As stated above, they got great news on Griffin and Thompson in the secondary and have Bradley McDougald (knee) available as well. Backup safety Delano Hill went on IR with a hip injury and fullback Tre Madden is 'doubtful' with a hamstring issue.
Dallas has ruled out David Irving and list guard Xavier Su'a Filo as doubtful, but are also as healthy as they've been in weeks. Sean Lee was a healthy scratch last week but should be at his sharpest after his latest hamstring injury. Up front, tackle Tyron Smith (neck) and guard Zack Martin (knee) practiced in full on Thursday and are good to go. Safety Darian Thompson and WR Tavon Austin are listed as 'questionable' but should play.
TOTAL TALK
Saturday’s nights total opened has fluctuated from 41.5-to-43.5. Since they can close the roof at AT&T Stadium, weather won't be a factor. Temperatures in Arlington are expected to be in the mid-50's. The 'over' went 9-7 in Seahawks games this season, prevailing in six of seven. The 'under' was 9-7 in Cowboys games. As you'll see below, the 'under' is 8-2 in the last 10 matchups between these teams
Weekly “Total Talk” writer Chris David of VegasInsider.com provided his thoughts on this matchup and both Saturday contests here:
RECENT MEETINGS (Seattle 6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS last 10; UNDER 8-2)
9/23/18 Seattle 24-13 vs. Dallas (SEA -1, 40)
12/24/17 Seattle 21-12 at Dallas (SEA +4.5, 47)
11/1/15 Seattle 13-12 at Dallas (DAL +4.5, 41)
10/12/14 Dallas 30-23 at Seattle (DAL +9.5, 47)
9/16/12 Seattle 27-7 vs. Dallas (SEA +3, 43)
11/6/11 Dallas 23-13 vs. Seattle (SEA +11, 45)
11/1/09 Dallas 38-17 vs. Seattle (DAL -9.5, 46)
11/27/08 Dallas 34-9 vs. Seattle (DAL -12, 46.5)
1/6/07 Seattle 21-20 vs. Dallas (DAL +2, 48.5)
10/23/05 Seattle 13-10 vs. Dallas (SEA -3, 45.5)