Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Monday 12/17/18
Saints (11-2) @ Panthers (6-7)— Carolina lost its last five games (0-5 vs spread) and has already fired two defensive assistants, and now the Saints come to town? Saints were 3-0 vs Carolina LY, winning 31-26 in home playoff game; NO lost four of its last six visits to Charlotte. Average total in last eight series games is 57.1. Panthers’ last four losses were all by 7 or fewer points; they’re 5-1 at home, with only loss 30-27 to Seattle. they’re 6-2 vs spread in last eight games as home underdogs, 1-0 this year. Saints won 11 of last 12 games, covering 10 of last 11; they’re 6-1 SU on road, 3-1 as AF- since 2012, they’re 9-14-1 vs spread as road favorites. Last four Saints games, three of last four Carolina games stayed under the total.
MNF - Saints at Panthers
December 16, 2018
By Kevin Rogers
The Saints (11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS) rebounded from a loss in Week 13 at Dallas that snapped a 10-game winning streak to knock off the Buccaneers, 28-14 to cash as 10-point road favorites. Not only did New Orleans avenge a season-opening loss to Tampa Bay in which it allowed 48 points, but the Saints shut out the Buccaneers in the second half, 25-0 to overcome a 14-3 halftime deficit.
Drew Brees spearheaded the rally behind a touchdown pass and a touchdown run, while the Saints’ defense limited the Bucs to under 300 yards after allowing 529 yards in the first matchup in Week 1. The Saints gave up 17 points or less for the fifth consecutive week, while Brees busted the 200-yard passing mark (barely with 201) for the first time in three games. With the victory, the Saints improved to 6-1 SU/ATS away from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.
The Panthers (6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS) have gone through a free-fall at the absolute worst time. Carolina suffered its fifth consecutive loss in last Sunday’s 26-20 setback at Cleveland as short favorites. The schedule-makers weren’t kind to Carolina, who was playing its fourth road game in five weeks, but the Panthers couldn’t hold onto a pair of touchdown leads in the first half as well as a three-point advantage heading into the fourth quarter.
Cam Newton failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time since Week 1 against Dallas, as the Panthers’ quarterback totaled 265 yards through the air and an interception. The Panthers trailed by six in the final minutes and reached the three-yard line, but Carolina came up short on three plays to take the lead, including a pair of incomplete passes by Newton. Carolina was limited to 21 points or fewer for the fourth time during this skid, as the Panthers topped the 31-point mark in four of six wins this season.
ROAD IS WHERE THE HEART IS
It’s well-known how much of a home-field advantage the Saints own, but the road numbers for New Orleans are staggering. Sean Payton’s squad has won six of seven on the highway, including an impressive 4-1 SU/ATS mark in the road favorite role. It’s been a nice bounce-back for New Orleans, who closed out last season with four straight away defeats and a 1-3 ATS record. The UNDER has cashed in five of seven road games, while allowing 20 points or less five times.
BACK TO THE BANK
Carolina hasn’t been able to put things together on the road at 1-6 this season. But, the Panthers are a different team (like everyone else) playing at home as Ron Rivera’s team owns a 5-1 mark at Bank of America Stadium. The lone home defeat came in their last home appearance back in Week 12 against Seattle in a 30-27 setback in the final seconds. Prior to that loss, Carolina strung together a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS mark in Charlotte, which included four games that eclipsed the OVER.
TOTAL TALK
The Saints are currently on a four-game UNDER streak, as New Orleans is seeing a total below 50 for the first time since Week 7 at Baltimore (49). The Panthers have finished UNDER the total three times in the last four contests, but have gone OVER the total in five straight home games.
TRIPLE REVENGE
Not only does Carolina want to end its drought, but the Panthers look to avenge three losses to their division rivals from last season. New Orleans dominated Carolina at Bank of America Stadium, 34-13 as five-point underdogs, highlighted by three interceptions of Newton. The Saints took care of the Panthers at the Superdome in early December, 31-21 to cash as six-point favorites for the season sweep.
What about the third matchup? The two teams hooked up in the Big Easy for an NFC Wild Card showdown that looked to be a blowout as New Orleans led Carolina, 21-6. The Panthers crept back to make it 24-19 as 6 ½-point underdogs, but Alvin Kamara’s two-yard touchdown run with five minutes remaining gave the Saints back a 12-point advantage. However, the Panthers marched right down the field and Christian McCaffrey capped off the drive with a 56-yard touchdown reception from Newton to pick up the cover in a 31-26 defeat.
The Saints are favored at Carolina for the first time since 2014 when New Orleans pulled off a 28-10 rout as three-point chalk. New Orleans has covered in each of its past four visits to Bank of America Stadium, while the two teams have split those matchups.
MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
New Orleans is making its second appearance on Monday night football this season, as the Saints routed the Redskins, 43-19 in Week 5 at home. However, the Saints own a 2-4 record in their last six Monday night contests since 2014 with the last road win coming at Chicago in December 2014 as a short favorite. The Panthers have won three of their last four Monday night games since 2015, while making their first appearance in 2018.
GAME PROPS – Courtesy of Las Vegas Westgate Superbook
Total Gross Passing Yards – Drew Brees
OVER 259 ½ (-110)
UNDER 259 ½ (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes – Drew Brees
OVER 2 (-130)
UNDER 2 (+110)
Will Michael Thomas score a touchdown?
YES +105
NO -125
Total Completions – Cam Newton
OVER 23 ½ (-110)
UNDER 23 (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes – Cam Newton
OVER 1 ½ (-130)
UNDER 1 ½ (+110)
Total Rushing + Receiving Yards – Christian McCaffrey
OVER 112 ½ (-110)
UNDER 112 ½ (-110)
LINE MOVEMENT
The Saints opened up as 6 ½-point road favorites at the Westgate Superbook, but that line has slightly dropped to 6 at many sports books. The total opened at 52, but has quickly fallen to 49 ½ at many locales, as this is the second-highest total Carolina has seen at home this season (55 ½ vs. Tampa Bay in Week 9).
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers Preview and Predictions 2018-12-17
The Carolina Panthers reached the midway point of the season riding a three-game winning streak and hot on the heels of the first-place New Orleans Saints in the NFC South. The Panthers have not won since and now face the prospect of having to beat the NFC-leading Saints twice in the final three weeks to make the playoffs, beginning with Monday night's matchup at Carolina.
The Panthers' five-game slide, which includes four losses on the road, has them sitting among three teams that are one-half game behind Minnesota for the second wild card in the NFC. "We feel like we are going to win every game," Carolina defensive end Julius Peppers told reporters. "It is not for a lack of confidence. It is just a lack of execution." New Orleans appeared on the verge of a second straight defeat before scoring 25 unanswered points in last week's 28-14 win at Tampa Bay (as the Saints -9.5 point favorite at intertops) to maintain its hold on the top overall seed in the NFC. The Saints, who swept three meetings with the Panthers last season, including a 31-26 playoff victory, can clinch a first-round bye with a win on Monday and a loss by Chicago to Green Bay.
TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Saints -6.5 O/U: 50.5
ABOUT THE SAINTS (11-2): While Drew Brees and the offense understandably receive the bulk of the publicity, New Orleans has limited its last five opponents to 17 points or fewer and ranks No. 1 in the NFL against the run, allowing an average of 77.6 yards. Brees has one touchdown pass and one interception in each of the last two games, but he still leads the league in passer rating (120.8) and completion percentage (75.7). Brees, who has posted 31 TD passes against four interceptions, has an elite receiver in Michael Thomas, who ranks second in the NFL with 102 catches. Alvin Kamara is a two-way threat out of the backfield with 1,384 yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns while Mark Ingram has rushed for 519 yards and five scores.
ABOUT THE PANTHERS (6-7): Cam Newton, battling a sore throwing shoulder, failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time since the season opener in last week's 26-20 loss at Cleveland, although he joined Peyton Manning as the only players with 3,000 yards passing in each of their first eight seasons. Christian McCaffrey continues to carry the offense, rushing for two touchdowns and catching six passes last week to give him 1,627 yards from scrimmage and 13 scores on the season. Rookie wide receivers D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel have emerged as Newton's top targets, although Ian Thomas made nine catches for 77 yards in place of injured tight end Greg Olsen last week. Carolina ranks seventh in run defense (97.8 yards).
EXTRA POINTS
1. Brees has thrown for 1,521 yards with 13 TDs and three picks in his last five meetings with Carolina.
2. Newton has rushed for five touchdowns in his last seven home contests versus New Orleans.
3. Thomas has 298 career receptions, the most by any player in his first three seasons.
PREDICTION: Saints 27, Panthers 26
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NFL
Long Sheet
Week 15
Monday. December 17
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NEW ORLEANS (11 - 2) at CAROLINA (6 - 7) - 12/17/2018, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 116-86 ATS (+21.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NFL
Week 15
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Trend Report
Monday. December 17
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games
New Orleans is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games
New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
New Orleans is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Carolina
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Orleans's last 8 games when playing Carolina
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of New Orleans's last 15 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Carolina is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 8 games when playing New Orleans
Carolina is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Carolina's last 15 games when playing at home against New Orleans
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NFL's Best ATS Teams (based on cover %):
1. Saints 10-3 ATS
2. Bears 9-4 ATS
3. Seahawks 8-3-2 ATS
4. Chiefs 8-4-1 ATS
t5. Pats 8-5 ATS
t5. Cowboys
t5. Dolphins
t5. Browns
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NFL's Worst ATS Teams (based on cover %):
32. Falcons 3-10 ATS
t30. Niners 4-9 ATS
t30. Eagles
29. Jaguars 4-7-2 ATS
t25. Raiders 5-8 ATS
t25. Jets
t25. Bills
t25. Panthers
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NFL Top OVER Teams (based on Over %)
1. Chiefs 8-4-1
t2. Bears 8-5
t2. Bengals
t2. Jets
t2. Bucs
t6. Falcons 7-6
t6. Panthers
t6. Packers
t6. Chargers
t6. Giants
t6. Steelers
t6. Niners
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NFL's Top UNDER Teams (based on Under %):
1. Broncos 9-3-1
t2. Cardinals 8-5
t2. Texans 8-5
t2. Vikings 8-5
t2. Pats 8-5
t2. Saints 8-5
t2. Eagles 8-5
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