NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 17

NFL Week 7

Seahawks (5-1) @ Cardinals (3-3) — Home teams won last four series games; Seahawks won last meeting 58-0 at home (493-154 TY, +7 TOs), but they’ve lost six of last seven visits here, with four of six losses by 6 or less points. Seattle offense has been much better at home (10 TDs/34 drives) than on road (4 TDs/32 drives); they’re 11-39 on third down conversions on road, 14-39 at home. Hawks gave up a special teams TD in each of last two games. Cardinals are 2-0 at home, outscoring opponents 34-7 in second half of those games. Arizona gave up 149 rushing yards last week at Candlestick, first time this year; they’ve allowed more than 104; Seahawks have run ball for 175.2 yards/game the last five weeks. Home teams are 3-1 vs spread in NFC West games, 1-1 if an underdog. Seattle is playing its third dome game in last four weeks. Four of last five Arizona games stayed under the total; three of last four Seattle games went over.

Armadillosports.com

Seahawks at Cardinals
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The Seahawks and Saints look to be the two teams fighting it out for home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs. Each team is 5-1 so far, as Seattle has an opportunity to grab a half-game lead over New Orleans this week as the Saints are on the bye. The Seahawks travel to Arizona to take on the Cardinals in a crucial division battle that can propel Seattle to 2-0 in the NFC West with a victory.

Seattle (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) held off Tennessee last Sunday, 20-13 as the Seahawks failed to cover as 11-point home favorites. The lone touchdown allowed by the Seahawks came on a blocked-field goal returned for a score at the end of the first half, while the Titans racked up just 223 yards of offense. Marshawn Lynch rushed for a pair of touchdowns for Seattle, as the game easily finished 'under' the total of 42. Pete Carroll's team has won 11 straight games at CenturyLink Field since the start of last season, while posting a 9-2 ATS home ledger.

The Cardinals (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS) haven't lost consecutive games yet this season, coming off last week's 32-20 defeat at San Francisco. Arizona had plenty of chances to cover as 10-point underdogs, while trailing 22-20 in the third quarter. Larry Fitzgerald fumbled inside San Francisco territory late in the third quarter, while running back Alfonso Smith fumbled to set up the 49ers field goal that put them ahead by 12 points. Arizona fell to 1-3 on the road this season, while losing 10 of its past 11 games away from University of Phoenix Stadium.

Seattle and Arizona split a pair of meetings last season with the home team winning in dramatically different ways. The Cardinals held off the Seahawks in Russell Wilson's debut in the 2012 season opener, 20-16 as short home underdogs. Arizona's defense stiffened up in the final moments, keeping Seattle out of the end zone as the Seahawks couldn't score with three shots from the three-yard line. The victory by the Cardinals was the sixth in the last seven home meetings with the Seahawks, including three triumphs as an underdog.

The Seahawks rebounded in a huge way in the rematch at home, drilling the Cardinals, 58-0 as 10-point 'chalk' last December. Lynch torched the Arizona defense for three touchdowns, while Seattle scored two non-offensive touchdowns in a 28-point second quarter. Arizona turned the ball over eight times, while suffering its ninth consecutive loss following a 4-0 start last season (finished 5-11).

Since beating the Seahawks in Week 1 last season, the Cardinals have dropped six consecutive divisional contests, including double-digit defeats at home to the Rams and 49ers. Arizona has won each of its first two contests in Glendale this season, knocking off Detroit and Carolina as short underdogs. The Cardinals have cashed seven of their last nine opportunities in the home 'dog role since 2011, while winning seven times straight-up.

Seattle owns a 2-1 SU/ATS record as a road favorite this season, but is 0-3 SU/ATS in Carroll's tenure when laying points on the road inside the NFC West. Since 2010, the Seahawks are just 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS against division foes on the highway, while hitting the 'under' in all three road divisional contests last season.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Antony Dinero says there is value in the home 'dog, "There is a more confident vibe from the Cardinals with Carson Palmer at the controls, giving them a puncher's chance at pulling off a home upset. With guys being reminded all week that the Seahawks won 58-0 the last time these teams met on a football field, Arizona will have the pride factor in its corner, not to mention a partisan crowd in a nationally-televised weeknight game. It's going to boil down to how effective Palmer can be against the NFL's top secondary, but some of these Cards have plenty of fight in them. Remember, Arizona beat Detroit by four touchdowns last December one week after catching Seattle's epic beatdown."

Since last November, the Cardinals are 5-0 ATS off an ATS defeat, while posting a profitable 8-5 ATS record over the last 13 regular season contests. The Seahawks have been one of the top teams to back in this same span by going 10-3 ATS the past 13 games (including two postseason contests), even though Seattle has failed to cover in the last two weeks against Indianapolis and Tennessee.

The Seahawks are listed as 6½-point road favorites, the longest number on the highway for Seattle since laying 7½ in a 13-10 loss at Carolina in 2007. The total for Thursday's contest is set at 40½, as the Seahawks are 2-1 to the 'over' on totals closing at 42 or below. The game can be seen nationally on NFL Network with an 8:25 PM EST kickoff from University of Phoenix Stadium.

NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Seattle at Arizona

The loss that Seattle suffered in week five to the Indianapolis Colts was quickly put behind as Seahawks picked up it's 11th consecutive home victory last Sunday by defeating Tennessee 20-13. However, the 11 point spot was a little too much as Seahawks failed to cash moving the ATS mark to 4-2 on the campaign. Meanwhile, Cardinals stumbled for the third time in four road attempts falling 32-20 as 11 point underdogs up in San Francisco and like Seahawks have a 4-2 record against the oddsmaker. The last time these two collided Caroll's troops took Arizona behind the woodshed spanking Cardinals 58-0. Seahawks are by far the better squad but sports bettors expecting a repeat performance need to be aware of Seahawks' disparity between home (20-7, 16-10-1 ATS) and away (10-17, 12-14-1 ATS) games since Caroll arrived and Seahawks atrocious 1-6 SU/ATS record last 7 trips into Arizona. If that doesn't give pause about laying 6.5 to 7 on Seahawks our NFL Betting Database chips in these betting nuggets. Home Dogs of 3.5 to 7.5 have been solid bets this season posting an 8-3 mark at the betting window. Since 2008 teams looking to avenge a division shutout are 11-5 ATS. Finally, Seahawks are on an 0-3 ATS skid as a division road favorite, Cardinals are 5-3 ATS following a DD Division loss the previous game.

Thursday Night Football Betting: Seahawks at Cardinals
By Covers.com

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+6.5, 40)

Much has been made of disparity in play by the Seattle Seahawks when they are at home versus on the road, and it can be best exemplified by their two matchups with the Arizona Cardinals last season. The Seahawks lost by four points at Arizona in the 2012 season opener, only to get revenge by mauling the Cardinals 58-0 at home three months later. Seattle is sitting atop the NFC West with a 5-1 record heading into a Thursday night showdown at division rival Arizona.

The Seahawks have won two of three away from home but the victory margin in the two victories came by a combined eight points. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have a short week to prepare for the back end of a brutal division daily-double after Sunday's 32-20 turnover-laden defeat in San Francisco. It marks the start of a critical three-game homestand for Arizona, although each contest is against a team that advanced to the playoffs last season.

LINE: Seattle opened as low as -4.5 and was bet up to as high as -7 before buyback dropped the line to -6.5. The total opened at 40 and moved to 40.5.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Seattle (-7.5) + Arizona (+3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Cardinals +7.5

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (5-1, 4-2 ATS): Seattle ran its home winning streak to 11 games with Sunday's 20-13 victory over Tennessee, but life on the road has been a different story. The Seahawks trailed in the fourth quarter in a season-opening 12-7 win at Carolina and needed a boneheaded interception by Houston quarterback Matt Schaub to prevail in overtime in Week 4 before squandering a fourth-quarter lead in a 34-28 loss at Indianapolis a week later. Quarterback Russell Wilson has played efficiently but is averaging only 209 yards passing, although he has the luxury of handing off to Marshawn Lynch, who is third in the league in rushing with 487 yards.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (3-3, 4-2 ATS): Arizona rolled up 403 yards of offense against the 49ers but was unable to overcome four turnovers, including a pair of interceptions by Carson Palmer, who was also sacked for a safety. Rookie Andre Ellington is making a strong bid to supplant Rashard Mendenhall as the starting running back with seven carries for 56 yards and a touchdown and five receptions for 36 more on Sunday. The Cardinals had a major injury scare when defensive end Calais Campbell was carted off the field and hospitalized for possible neck and spine injuries, but he was back at team meetings on Monday.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in Arizona.
* Seahawks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings in Arizona.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Lynch ran for three touchdowns and Seattle forced eight turnovers while setting a franchise record for points in last season's 58-0 rout.

2. Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald had his first 100-yard day of the season with six catches for 117 yards and a TD despite a sore hamstring.

3. Arizona has won six of the last seven home matchups against the Seahawks.

Cardinals listed as home 'dogs
By Sportsbook.ag

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (5-1) at ARIZONA CARDINALS (3-3)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Seattle -6.5 & 41
Opening Line & Total: Seahawks -6.5 & 40.5

The Cardinals try to stay perfect at home when they host a one-loss Seahawks team on Thursday night.

Seattle had mixed results in its four straight games versus AFC South teams (winning big over the Jaguars, squeaking by the Texans, losing to the Colts and failing to cover in a tight win over the Titans) but has allowed only 5.0 PPG and 225 total YPG to NFC opponents this year (Panthers and 49ers). Arizona, which could be missing star WR Larry Fitzgerald (hamstring), gained a season-high 403 total yards in San Francisco last week, but was done in by four turnovers in a 32-20 loss.

Although the Seahawks won a 58-0 laugher in the last meeting on Dec. 9 due mostly to eight Cardinals turnovers, Seattle is just 1-6 (SU and ATS) in its past seven trips to Arizona. Both teams have several positive betting trends working in their favor. The Seahawks are 13-1 ATS (93%) after gaining 6+ yards per play in their previous game over the past three seasons, while the Cardinals are just 3-11 ATS (21%) in October over the past four seasons. But Arizona is a perfect 8-0 ATS in home games under Bruce Arians and 26-9 ATS (74%) when facing a top-level team (75% win pct. or better) since 1992. Both clubs are relatively healthy, but each team will likely be without a star defensive end, with both Seattle DE Chris Clemons (elbow) and Arizona DE Calais Campbell (neck) listed as questionable.

Seattle continues to steamroll opponents on the ground, averaging 158 rushing YPG (2nd in NFL) with more than 150 rushing yards in each of the past five games. Most of this damage has been done by Marshawn Lynch, who has 57 percent of his team's carries for 487 yards (4.2 YPC) and five touchdowns. Lynch has run all over the Cardinals in the past three meetings, gaining 316 yards on 5.9 YPC with three touchdowns. QB Russell Wilson is the only other Seattle player with more than 20 carries this season, scrambling for 294 yards on 5.9 YPC, but he does have to take better care of the football with five fumbles this season, three of which were lost. The Seahawks are efficient when they throw (7.8 YPA, 6th in NFL), but they have the third-fewest pass attempts in the NFL (166). Wilson has taken multiple sacks in every game this season, hitting the turf 2.8 times per game compared to 2.1 last year, but still has twice as many touchdowns (eight) as interceptions (four). Wilson is hoping that top WR Percy Harvin (hip) will return from his injury soon now that he's eligible to play, but until that happens Wilson will continue to spread the ball evenly to his top three wideouts. WR Golden Tate leads the team in catches (23), WR Doug Baldwin has the most receiving yards (344) and WR Sidney Rice is tied for the team lead with two touchdown catches. The tight ends haven't been a big factor, but starting TE Zach Miller (hamstring) is expected to return after a two-game absence.

The Seattle defense has been strong this year, ranking second in the NFL in total defense (290 total YPG), second in passing defense (188 YPG), third in scoring defense (15.7 PPG), fifth in yards per play (4.7) and fifth in red zone efficiency (38.5%). The defense has been average in both stopping the run (3.9 YPC, 15th in league) and getting off the field on third downs though (37.2%, T-15th in NFL). The Seahawks have forced at least two turnovers in all six games, totaling 17 takeaways on the season (T-2nd in NFL). Miscues have been a key in this series as the Cardinals have 2+ turnovers in each of the past six meetings, totaling 21 giveaways.

Arizona's offense has been subpar this year with 322 total YPG (26th in NFL) and 18.5 PPG (25th in league), and will remain that way if top WR Larry Fitzgerald's hamstring injury forces him to be ineffective. He has produced some big games in this series with four 100-yard efforts in the past 10 meetings where he has totaled 853 yards and 5 TD. However, Fitzgerald was held to just one catch in the 58-0 drubbing last December. QB Carson Palmer is in the midst of a terrible first season in Arizona with a 69.3 passer rating (5th-worst among all qualified QBs), throwing for only seven touchdowns and 11 interceptions (2nd-most in NFL). He has gotten better protection in the past three games though with just four sacks, a big drop from the nine sacks he absorbed in the first three contests.

Palmer has not been helped by a poor ground game averaging only 86 YPG (24th in NFL) on 3.8 YPC (20th in league). Leading rusher RB Rashad Mendenhall has managed just 3.3 YPC on his 79 attempts, but the emergence of rookie RB Andre Ellington (7.0 YPC on 25 attempts) has sparked some hope for the rushing offense. Ellington has increased his yards per carry in each of his six games, cranking out 56 yards on just seven carries last week.

Defensively, the Cardinals have been solid all season, allowing only 5.2 yards per play (12th in NFL), including 3.5 yards per carry (4th in league). They rank among the top-10 NFL teams in both red zone efficiency (44.4%) and goal-to-go efficiency (57%). These factors have kept the points allowed to a minimum (21.2 PPG, 12th in NFL) despite being on the field for 32:02, which is the seventh longest for any NFL defense. Arizona's D has also been more opportunistic recently with nine takeaways over the past three weeks.

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