NFC Conference Previews

NFC North Outlook
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com

CHICAGO BEARS

Over/Under Win Total: 7.5 (-105 OVER, -125 UNDER)
Odds to win the NFC North: 9/1
Odds to win the NFC: 28/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 50/1

STAFF CHANGES: This will be the second season for John Fox leading the Bears coming off a 6-10 season while his former team won the Super Bowl. Offensive coordinator Adam Gase took the Miami head coaching job in January and quarterbacks coach Dowell Loggains was promoted to that role for 2016. Dave Ragone was hired to take Loggains spot. Richard Hightower was hired as a special teams assistant and former Tulane head coach Curtis Johnson is the new wide receivers coach.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Left Guard: Manny Ramirez retired and Hroniss Grasu will move over to the starting center spot. That opens up the left guard spot and it looks like rookie Cody Whitehair could get an opportunity to earn the spot as Chicago’s second round draft pick out of Kansas State. Ted Larsen has been injured and if he returns to health he could be factor in the position battle as well after starting 26 games for Arizona the past two seasons for a veteran presence on the line.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: There is an opening opposite Adrian Amos at the safety position with Deon Bush and Harold Jones-Quarterly likely the top targets for that spot. Bush is a rookie while Amos and Jones-Quarterly are second year players as it is a young secondary for the Bears. Chris Prosinski was re-signed by the Bears and at 29 he will be the elder statesman of the group. With Marquess Wilson injured there will be an opening for a back-up wide receiver with Marc Mariani and Josh Bellamy looking like the most promising options with Mariani possibly used as a returner as well.

SEASON OUTLOOK: Chicago had wins over Oakland, Kansas City, and Green Bay last season while also playing in very tight games with several other playoff teams in a 2015 season that easily could have been much stronger. This is a squad that could be a sleeper contender for a NFC playoff spot with a reasonable schedule although some familiar names will be absent with the team moving on from Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett, two huge pieces of the offense in recent seasons.

DETROIT LIONS

Over/Under Win Total: 7 (-105 OVER, -125 UNDER)
Odds to win the NFC North: 10/1
Odds to win the NFC: 33/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 66/1

STAFF CHANGES: Bob Quinn is the new general manager for the Lions taking over in January after 15 years in the New England organization. Jim Caldwell is back for his third season with the Lions after a strong 2014 season and a bit of a tough-luck 2015 season. There were some changes with David Walker now leading the running backs and former Miami Hurricanes head coach Al Golden brought on to coach the tight ends. Brian Callahan will lead the quarterbacks and Michael McCarthy is taking over the offensive line as the offensive staff was revamped with Jim Bob Cooter taking over the coordinator position mid-season last year. Teryl Austin remains the defensive coordinator and former Maryland head coach Randy Edsall has also joined the staff.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Strong Safety: Four players look like possible options to start at the position for the Lions with former Saint Rafael Bush certainly the leader. Tavon Wilson a free agent from the Patriots that will see some looks on the first team in camp and fourth round pick Miles Killebrew will be worked out as well. Isaiah Johnson worked his way from the practice squad last season and will also be fighting for a spot. Both primary strong safeties from last season departed and Detroit is looking for someone to step up to line up with Glover Quin.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Kyle Van Noy could be pushed at the outside linebacker position on defense and there are questions on the offense as well. Running back depth still needs to be sorted out behind Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick and center and long snapper are also positions that look unsettled at this point in the summer.

SEASON OUTLOOK: After starting 1-7 last season the Lions made some big mid-season changes and saw much better results in the second half, closing on a 6-2 run with one of the losses being the infamous Hail Mary defeat to the Packers in a wild Thursday night game. The team could take some momentum into 2016 looking for the defense to get back to its 2014 form but the offense is now without Calvin Johnson.

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Over/Under Win Total: 10.5 (-165 OVER, +135 UNDER)
Odds to win the NFC North: 7/5
Odds to win the NFC: 19/4
Odds to win Super Bowl: 17/2

STAFF CHANGES: Green Bay made a few moves on the offensive staff with the release of Jerry Fontenot (Tight Ends) and Sam Gash (Running Backs). Luke Getsy is moving up to coach the wide receivers this season with strong support from the players. Also from within the organization David Raih is the new offensive line coach. From Cleveland Brian Angelichio replaces Fontenot and from St. Louis Brian Sirmans takes over for Gash. Ejiro Evero was the only addition to the defensive staff in a quality control role.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Wide Receiver: With Jordy Nelson still a question mark to return for the start of the season, receiver depth is again an issue for the Packers. Randall Cobb will obviously have a leading role while Davante Adams, Ty Montgomery, Jared Abbrederis, and Jeff Janis all had positive moments for the team last season but without consistent production. Fifth round draft pick Trevor Davis out of California has impressed with his speed and could be a standout in the preseason.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Eddie Lacy and James Starks will lead the backfield, but expect spirited preseason competition between holdover Jason Crockett and a trio of undrafted rookie free agents. Jake Ryan impressed last season in 14 games at inside linebacker but Stanford fourth round pick Blake Martinez will be given an opportunity to play right away. Richard Rodgers had 58 catches at the tight end position last season, but Jared Cook was brought in and could take away many of those looks in 2016. Green Bay is also moving on from long-time fan favorite John Kuhn at fullback with Aaron Ripkowksi slated to take over.

SEASON OUTLOOK: The Packers are one of the clear NFC favorites with a very favorable schedule and one of the most well regarded quarterbacks in the league. The Packers looked on track for a great 2015 season with a 6-0 start, but Green Bay went just 4-6 the rest of the way before losing to Arizona in a near comeback in the divisional round of the playoffs. Green Bay hasn’t had a losing season since 2008 and the Packers certainly seem likely to find the playoffs for the eighth straight season but Green Bay is just 3-5 in playoff games since winning Super Bowl XLV.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Over/Under Win Total: 9.5 (-145 OVER, +115 UNDER)
Odds to win the NFC North: 2/1
Odds to win the NFC: 8/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 16/1

STAFF CHANGES: After a surprise division title last season Mike Zimmer made a few changes to his offensive staff with a pair of former NFL head coaches taking on position roles with Tony Sparano leading the offensive line and Pat Shurmur is working with the tight ends. Kevin Stefanski is moving from tight ends to the running backs position as Kirby Wilson left Minnesota for Cleveland.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Wide Receiver: The Vikings have not been able to develop much of a consistent passing game threat in recent seasons, but they have a good group of talented young receivers on board. Stefon Diggs had some big games in the middle of his rookie season last year while Charles Johnson was a standout in 2014. Cordarrelle Patterson has never panned out but the Vikings used another high draft pick on another SEC receiver this season taking Laquon Treadwell in the first round. Jaruis Wright also was a productive role player for the Vikings last season, but the team needs to figure out who the go-to options for Teddy Bridgewater are.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Right guard could feature a one-on-one battle with veteran Brandon Fusco moving back to right guard this season after the Vikings picked up Alex Boone in free agency. Mike Harris was the team’s starter at the position in 2015 with a solid debut season as a starter as Minnesota appears to have two quality options. T.J. Clemmings didn’t grade well at right tackle last season despite starting 16 games, particularly struggling in the passing game. Andrew Smith signed a one-year deal with the team after falling out of favor with Cincinnati. Veteran Phil Loadholt has retired as there will be some sorting out to do on the offensive line. On defense, the cornerback battle between veteran Terence Newman and second year Trae Waynes could be the most intriguing. Newman is 37, but led the team in interceptions last season while Waynes had mixed results in his rookie season as the 11th pick in the 2015 draft.

SEASON OUTLOOK: Minnesota appears to have the pieces to return to the playoffs with a quality defense and one of the better running games in the league if Adrian Peterson remains healthy. The first place schedule looks a bit tougher than the rest of the division will face and Minnesota did manage to win a number of close games last season. Expectations are elevated and the move to the new U.S. Bank Stadium leaves a bit of a potential adjustment for the team.

NFC South Outlook
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com

ATLANTA FALCONS

Over/Under Win Total: 7.5 (+105 OVER, -135 UNDER)
Odds to win the NFC South: 5/1
Odds to win the NFC: 28/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 50/1

STAFF CHANGES: With a major overhaul before the 2015 season Atlanta wound up 8-8 and only minor changes took place over the winter under Dan Quinn. Former Buccaneers head coach Raheem Morris is switching to offense for the Falcons as an assistant head coach and wide receivers coach. Former Patriots cornerback Jerome Henderson was hired to be the passing game coordinator on defense after working with Dallas in recent seasons.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Defensive End: The Falcons surprised some by not drafting a pass rusher in April and a key position battle this summer will be at defensive end. Veterans Adrian Clayborn, Vic Beasley, Malliciah Goodman, and Derrick Shelby are likely fighting for spots with Tyson Jackson likely the only lock to start after starting 28 games the past two seasons for the Falcons. In late July the Falcons also picked up Efe Obada after he was released by the Chiefs.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: There appears to be an opening for the team in nickel sets with Akramm King, Jalen Collins, and DeMarcus Van Dyke likely in a preseason battle at cornerback. Collins is suspended the first four weeks as he may be at a disadvantage. Starting with 2nd round pick Deion Jones the Falcons have three rookie linebackers in camp. Veterans Paul Worrilow, Tyler Starr, Brooks Reed, and Phillip Wheeler will need to prove they belong in the mix. The offensive line looks mostly set but depth and primary back-up assignments may still be in flux as well.

SEASON OUTLOOK: The rest of the division was overwhelmed by the Panthers last season but Atlanta was the only team to beat Carolina in the regular season. Going 8-8 with a new staff and featuring a clearly improved defense was a solid step forward for the Falcons but Atlanta won just once in the division and went just 4-4 at home as a once-strong home field has softened. This is a team that could go either way, making a playoff push or sinking in a division that could be tightly packed.

CAROLINA PANTHERS

Over/Under Win Total: 10.5 (-115 OVER, -115 UNDER)
Odds to win the NFC South: 1/2
Odds to win the NFC: 6/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 12/1

STAFF CHANGES: A lot of Super Bowl teams lose assistants but Carolina will keep most of its staff in place under Ron Rivera. Mike Shula has been the offensive coordinator since 2013 while Sean McDermott has led the defense since 2011 and both are back in 2016. The scouting department had a bit of a shake-up in the summer but overall the staff remains mostly the same as in last season’s very successful campaign.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Wide Receiver: A Panthers team that made the Super Bowl will get back Kelvin Benjamin and Stephen Hill from injury to bolster the receiving corps. Corey Brown and Ted Ginn were significant contributors last season but may be battling for similar roles this season with both in contract seasons. Second-year receiver Devin Funchess could also be fighting for an expanded role in the offense as well.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: With Josh Norman gone a cornerback spot is open and it could be a serious battle this August with veteran Robert McClain joined by three rookie draft picks in Daryl Worley, James Bradberry, and Zack Sanchez as the Panthers made three consecutive picks at the position. Punter Brad Nortman signed with Jacksonville and it appears that Mike Scifres and former CFL kicker Swayze Waters will be in for a preseason battle for kicking duties.

SEASON OUTLOOK: After going 15-1 but suffering a disappointing Super Bowl loss Carolina remains one of the top threats in the NFC. A lot went right for the Panthers last season with a +192 point differential and some big breaks with defensive touchdowns as repeating a 15-1 mark would be a great challenge but a big fall in the standings would be as much of a surprise.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Over/Under Win Total: 7 (-105 OVER, -125 UNDER)
Odds to win the NFC South: 6/1
Odds to win the NFC: 33/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 66/1

STAFF CHANGES: Dan Campbell was the interim head coach for the Dolphins last season and he was brought on to the Saints staff as an assistant, focusing on tight ends. Joe Lombardi was fired mid-season by the Lions as offensive coordinator and he was re-hired by the Saints as quarterbacks coach, a role he held from 2009-2013 with the team. Former Raiders head coach Dennis Allen is returning as the defensive coordinator after taking over late last season after Rob Ryan was fired. Aaron Glenn is the new secondary coach while Dan Roushar is the offensive line coach.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Defensive End: The Saints have a strong pass rusher in Cameron Jordan but finding a complement on the other side looks like a major priority this summer. Hau’oli Kikaha was the favorite to take the spot but he may be lost for the season. Bobby Richardson was a successful undrafted free agent pick-up last season and he has some versatility on the line. Kasim Edebali, Obum Gwacham, and Davis Tull will be in the mix for the starting spot with Edebali posting five sacks last season as the most proven player. Sheldon Rankins was also the team’s #1 pick out of Louisville but he looks likely to be slotted in as an interior player in his first season.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Slot cornerback will be a key position in NFC South and Damian Swann and P.J. Williams figure to be fighting for a lead role, although the starting spots of Delvin Breaux and Keenan Lewis are not set in stone. Wide Receiver depth looks limited for the Saints behind Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead, and rookie 2nd round pick Michael Thomas. Brandon Coleman will get the first look after taking over for Marques Colston last season but the team also likes R.J. Harris to compete for a spot. Kai Forbath and Connor Barth will have a kicking battle as well and the offensive line has some question marks in the guard rotation.

SEASON OUTLOOK: The Saints are still handcuffed by the contract of Drew Brees with a monster cap number this season and while negotiations to adjust that figure could happen, it seems the team will have a hard time getting something major done. New Orleans looks likely to improve defensively this season, albeit that won’t be a huge accomplishment having allowed nearly 30 points per game last season. New Orleans did win three of the final four games last season and has the offensive scheme to put up big numbers on occasion but it would be a surprise if the Saints challenge Carolina for the top spot in the South.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Over/Under Win Total: 7.5 (+110 OVER, -140 UNDER)
Odds to win the NFC South: 13/2
Odds to win the NFC: 40/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1

STAFF CHANGES: The Buccaneers were impressed with the work offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter did with rookie Jameis Winston and they decided he was right to take over the team as Lovie Smith was somewhat surprisingly released after two seasons in Tampa. Koetter is the fourth head coach for the team since 2009 and he has hired former Falcons head coach Mike Smith and several of his former assistants on the defensive staff. Nate Kaczor is leading special teams and while Koetter plans to continue to call offensive plays he was able to pry Todd Monken from the college ranks to be his coordinator and wide receivers coach with Monken leading a great turnaround season at Southern Miss last year.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Wide Receiver: The Buccaneers have veteran Vincent Jackson and rising star Mike Evans to lead the receiving corps but there appears to be six other players at the position on the roster. Louis Murphy’s timetable isn’t clear yet but Kenny Bell and Russell Shepard figure to be fighting for targets. Andre Davis, Adam Humphries, and Donteea Dye all should see looks as the team looks for a slot player and a clear pecking order on the roster.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: The Buccaneers don’t have a clear #1 tight end that can cover all the roles of the position. Austin Seferian-Jenkins has had a few big games but continues to fight injuries. Luke Stocker is a great blocking player but hasn’t done much as a receiver while Cameron Brate hasn’t met the call yet. Veteran Brandon Myers was brought back in but isn’t a lock to last on the roster. 6th round pick Dan Vitale was mostly a fullback in college but he could prove to fill a variety of roles on the team and might deem one of the other tight ends unnecessary. Rounding out the defensive end rotation with free agent pick-up Robert Ayers and rookie Noah Spence will be an area to watch this summer while cornerback depth is also going to have some battles in play.

SEASON OUTLOOK: The case can be made for the Buccaneers to be a candidate for a rise to playoff contention this season. Tampa Bay was just 6-10 last season but the coaching transition should be relatively smooth and there is a great deal of young talent supporting Jameis Winston after a solid rookie season at quarterback. The early season schedule is brutally tough facing both 2015 NFC championship teams on the road plus a home date with the Super Bowl champion Broncos in the first five weeks and the Buccaneers may need to weather an early storm to have success.

NFC West Outlook
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Over/Under Win Total: 9.5 (-165 OVER, +135 UNDER)
Odds to win the NFC West: 7/5
Odds to win the NFC: 6/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 12/1

STAFF CHANGES: The Cardinals promoted James Bettcher before the 2015 season to defensive coordinator and he had a strong season replacing Todd Bowles. Head Coach Bruce Arians has retained assistants Tom Moore and Harold Goodwin to lead the offense again in 2016 as most of the staff has returned after the team lost in the NFC Championship last season.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Center: The Cardinals expect A.Q. Shipley to be the starting center but 4th round draft pick Evan Boehm has put a lot of pressure on in camp, impressing after a strong career at Missouri. Earl Watford is another versatile lineman that will get looks at center. Shipley’s job looks safe but the team will be excited to see Boehm in live game action.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: There is a lot of sorting out to do in the secondary with three starting spots potentially open at corner and safety and solid groups of players competing. There will also be special teams tests done to organize those groups. The defensive line will also be under watch for the Cardinals in the preseason.

SEASON OUTLOOK: The season ended poorly with an ugly loss to Carolina in the NFC Championship but it was a great season for the Cardinals with a 13-3 record and a dominant point differential on the season. Arizona figures to be on the short list of NFC favorites and they have a very favorable early season as the Cardinals could be the pace-setters in September and October.

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Over/Under Win Total: 7.5 (+120 OVER, -150 UNDER)
Odds to win the NFC West: 15/2
Odds to win the NFC: 33/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 66/1

STAFF CHANGES: Some expected a change after the announcement that the team was moving from St. Louis to Los Angeles but Jeff Fisher is a native to the area and played his college ball at USC, looking like a great candidate to lead the renewal of the NFL in the area despite four straight losing seasons with the Rams. Five assistants were released in January however including changes on special teams, running backs, and wide receivers positions. Rob Boras is the team’s new offensive coordinator, promoted from leading the tight ends while Gregg Williams is the defensive coordinator.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Quarterback: The Rams traded to get the #1 pick in April’s draft and selected Jared Goff out of California. He may get a chance to start right away as Nick Foles was recently released. Case Keenum has some NFL experience and looks like the main option if Goff is not deemed ready to start from Week 1. Sean Mannion is also on the roster after briefly appearing once last season in his first season out of Oregon State.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Cory Harkey and Lance Kendricks are holdover tight ends with the departure of Jared Cook to Green Bay. The Rams also drafted both Tyler Higbee and Temarrick Hemingway as the position could turn over significantly. The Rams could be without both of last season’s starting safeties as Rodney McLeod signed with the Eagles and T.J. McDonald had an off-season incident that may leave his role in question. Kenny Britt and Brian Quick could be pushed by rookie Pharoh Cooper at wide receiver as well.

SEASON OUTLOOK: Enthusiasm will be high with the move to Los Angeles but the Rams reside in a tough division and the move will increase the travel demand significantly in a year where the Rams will also give up a home game to play in London. Los Angeles has some talented pieces on defense and at times the unit shined last season but getting consistent results from the offense has been an ongoing problem throughout Fisher’s tenure with the franchise.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Over/Under Win Total: 5.5 (-115 OVER, -115 UNDER)
Odds to win the NFC West: 20/1
Odds to win the NFC: 40/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1

STAFF CHANGES: Chip Kelly was fired before last season ended in Philadelphia and while the Eagles were a big disappointment last season Kelly has a winning NFL record in three seasons. He inherits a challenging situation in San Francisco as Jim Tomasula was released after just one season. Kelly brought on former Lions assistant and Curtis Modkins as his offensive coordinator, a role he had with the Bills from 2010-12. Leading the defense is Jim O’Neil who was the defensive coordinator with the Browns the past two seasons. A handful of 2015 assistants were retained on the staff including former 49ers fullback Tom Rathman who has been an assistant on the team through four coaching changes.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Quarterback: The 49ers mostly had better success behind Blaine Gabbert last season, touting a much more accurate arm but lacking the dynamic ground presence of Colin Kaerpernick. Kaepernick led the 49ers to the Super Bowl just a few years ago and remains the face of the franchise but he is recovering from off-season surgery and the quarterback decision will be the biggest decision Kelly will need to make for 2016. San Francisco did pick up Jeff Driskel in the 6th round of the draft and he will get some snaps in August as well.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Cornerback features a group with limited experience but a lot of draft picks have been used on the position in recent years as there should be suitable options. Tramaine Brock started last season and is the most established in the group while Kenneth Acker also saw some productive time last season. Jimmie Ward and Dontae Johnson will be in the mix along with three rookie draft picks led by Will Redmond from Mississippi State who was picked in the 3rd round.

SEASON OUTLOOK: Not much was expected when Chip Kelly took over the Eagles but in year one a division title was delivered, led by unheralded quarterback Nick Foles. Kelly will hope to work similar magic on a 49ers roster that has turned over significantly in recent seasons after the fallout from Jim Harbaugh’s departure two years ago. Delivering a division title with this group in year one would be a remarkable accomplishment as the West appears to have a pair of serious contenders and by most accounts the 49ers were one of the league’s worst teams last season.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Over/Under Win Total: 10.5 (-140 OVER, +110 UNDER)
Odds to win the NFC West: 10/11
Odds to win the NFC: 9/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 9/1

STAFF CHANGES: Seattle made a few minor changes under Pete Carroll as he enters just his sixth season with the franchise, leading a great run of success. Kris Richard will be in his second season as defensive coordinator and Darrell Bevell remains the offensive coordinator despite annually being in the rumor mill as a potential head coaching hire elsewhere.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Offensive Line: While the retirement of Marshawn Lynch made the biggest waves the Seahawks also lost Russell Okung and J.R. Sweezy in free agency and the running game could suffer greatly. It is a young group and with the team having to pay Russell Wilson and some of the defensive stars the offensive line was not the priority. Garry Gilliam and Bradley Sowell will be in the mix at left tackle while rookie Rees Odhiambo could push Mark Glowinski at right guard. Justin Britt and Patrick Lewis also figure to have a head-to-head battle at center.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Running back is assumed to be led by Thomas Rawls but Christine Michael is also back with the team after finding some success late last season after bouncing around with three teams. Three running backs were picked up in the draft led by C.J. Prosise in the 3rd round. A new back-up quarterback will also be on the roster for the Seahawks with free agent Jake Heaps and rookie Trevone Boykin in play for that spot but a veteran could also be signed at some point. The defense figures to remain fierce but the biggest question mark could be at linebacker on the strong side, needing to replace Bruce Irvin. Mike Morgan is a solid option but from other positions Cassius Marsh and Eric Pinkins could get a look in that role.

SEASON OUTLOOK: The Seahawks should remain on the shortlist of NFC contenders. The 2015 team was relegated to a wild card with a handful of narrow losses and with a favorable early season schedule the West could be Seattle’s to reclaim. It would be a surprise if the Seahawks didn’t return to the playoffs but the line and running game will need to hold up once the schedule stiffens in the second half. Now paying their star quarterback a real quarterback salary the Seahawks have had to pinch the numbers in other areas and that could start to show up this season.

NFC East NFL Betting Preview
By Matt Fargo
Covers.com

Dallas Cowboys (2015: 4-12 SU, 4-11-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U)

Odds to win division: +180
Season win total: Over 9 -116/Under 9 -104

Why to bet the Cowboys: Dallas is the favorite to win the NFC East as the talent of this team is the best in the division. It has won three division crowns in the 10 years with Tony Romo at quarterback and that’s not a very good percentage considering the expectations every year. Still, when the team is healthy, the Cowboys are successful. Since 2014, they are 17-5 with Romo behind center. Taking Ezekiel Elliott with the fourth-overall pick was a risky move but he’s the type of player that can make a huge difference right from the start. The Dallas schedule is tied for fourth easiest in the league based on preseason rankings.

Why not to bet the Cowboys: Dallas went 1-11 without Romo last year so if he gets hurt again, there’s not much that can be done. The 4-12 finish was the worst season for the Cowboys since 1989, so a healthy Romo is vital. The offense will be one of the best with him starting but the defense has issues up front with the pass rush and the secondary is far from strong. The schedule strength is based on results from last season and the majority of the teams the Cowboys face outside of the division should be better. They could have a tougher time than some may think.

Season win total pick: Over 9

New York Giants (2015: 6-10 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, 11-5 O/U)

Odds to win division: +218
Season win total: Over 8 -119/Under 8 -101

Why to bet the Giants: After consecutive 6-10 seasons and failing to make the playoffs for the fourth straight season, head coach Tom Coughlin was let loose - although it was led to believe he resigned. Either way, the Giants needed a change and didn’t go far to find it, hiring offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, so the transition will be smooth. The offense will lead the way once again with Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. and the massive free agent signings on defense can only improve that unit. New York has the second easiest schedule heading into the season.

Why not to bet the Giants: While those free agency signings on defense were big news, the Giants were dead last in total defense a season ago, so how much they can improve the stop unit remains to be seen. The offense is solid but it is not good enough to outscore opponents on a weekly basis, especially with a shaky offensive line. New York has not won 10 games since 2010 and despite playing in a relatively weak division and having an easy schedule on paper, it will not come easy. Like the Cowboys, the majority of non-division games are against improving teams.

Season win total pick: Under 8

Washington Redskins (2015: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U)

Odds to win division: +335
Season win total: Over 7.5 +111/Under 7.5 -132

Why to bet the Redskins: The reigning NFC East champs should be playing with confidence this season, something they haven’t been able to do in a few years. Kirk Cousins broke five Redskins’ passing records last season including his 4,166 passing yards topping the old mark set by Jay Schroeder of all people. Cousins will be hard-pressed to match his 2015 season but he is playing in a contract year, so he will be out to prove last year was no fluke. The defense improved a weak secondary by signing free agent corner Josh Norman.

Why not to bet the Redskins: While Washington looked good at times last year, most of that was in a 4-0 finish to the regular season where wins came against teams whose seasons were already done. The Redskins kind of backed into the division title because nobody wanted it so last year may have just been an aberration. They will have to ride Cousins’ arm once again and while signing Norman was big, the Redskins still possessed the No. 28 total defense in the NFL. The division is weak but Washington will not be sneaking up on anyone this year.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5

Philadelphia Eagles (2015: 7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Odds to win division: +475
Season win total: Over 7 +143/Under 7 -172

Why to bet the Eagles: After back-to-back 10-6 seasons, the Eagles fell to 7-9 last year which brought an end to the Chip Kelly experiment and that’s a good thing. Doug Pederson takes over after spending the last three seasons as the Chiefs offensive coordinator. This is a very good fit and the roster will be more inclined to play hard for a “players” coach. The stop unit was No. 30 in total defense last year but should be better and the drafting of quarterback of the future Carson Wentz was a bold but important move for years to come.

Why not to bet the Eagles: Unfortunately, the future is not now as Wentz likely will not see a lot of time unless Sam Bradford completely implodes, which is very possible. Even if Bradford stays healthy and does not fall all over himself, he has little to throw to and little to hand off too. As bad as the defense was last year, it may actually end up being better than the offense this season. The Eagles, unlike what the other teams did in the division, did not reload for the present so it looks more and more like a rebuilding situation in Philadelphia at least for one season.

Season win total pick: Under 7

NFC East Preview
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com

Teams are listed in predicted order of finish, with 2015 striaght-up, spread, and over/under results listed...

Considering some of the dramatic year-to-year fluctuations in the history of the New York Giants (2015 SUR 6-10. PSR 9-7, O/U 10-6), bouncing back from last year’s 6-10 disappointment is nothing out of the ordinary. Bback in the ‘60s, the annual G-Men rollercoaster ride resembled that of the old “Cyclone” at Coney Island. After winning a third straight Eastern Conference title in 1963, New York sagged to 2-10-2 the following season, prompting the retirement of key vets such as Y.A. Tittle and Frank Gifford. The Giants recovered to 7-7 the next season before completely collapsing in 1966, when the defense recorded one of the worst marks in NFL history (a then-record 501 points allowed in a 14-game schedule!). By the next season, however, the G-Men were competitive again at 7-7 in ‘67, the year QB Fran Tarkenton arrived at old Yankee Stadium.

In later decades, New York would be fluctuating wildly once more, following up its initial Super Bowl title in the 1986 season for Bill Parcells by falling under .500 in the subsequent ‘87 campaign. There is precedent, then, for New York’s form to hardly bear resemblance from one year to the next.

Which is all good for Giants fans who would rather forget last season’s 6-10 mark that could have, and should have, been so much better. Five leads were lost late in fourth quarters of games, and there were eight losses by six points or fewer. Hardly the way the Tom Coughlin era deserved to end at Met Life Stadium. Yet it was time to turn the page as the G-Men have failed to reach the playoffs since their Super Bowl XLVI win over the Patriots almost five years ago in what turned out to be the last high note of the Coughlin era.

Still, the Giants didn’t exactly clean house after last season, promoting o.c. Ben McAdoo, who had imported the West Coast offense from Green Bay two years earlier, to succeed Coughlin. The move was wholeheartedly endorsed by QB Eli Manning, whose input was apparently impactful. Thus, the new slogan at Met Life is “Evolution, not Revolution” as McAdoo would only turn over about half of the staff, with QB coach Mike Sullivan now inheriting the o.c. and play-calling duties. Also, GM Jerry Reese has been retained by owners John Mara and Steve Tisch, though with a win-now edict for 2016. More than McAdoo, Reese is on the hot seat this fall.

While McAdoo’s offense needed less upgrading in the offseason, the “D” was a different matter after contributing mightily to the many blown leads while falling to the bottom of NFL total defense stats a year ago. Thus, Reese would spend over $200 million in free agency to improve the stop unit while using two of New York’s top three picks on defense in the draft.

Another on the hot seat at the Meadowlands, d.c. Steve Spagnuolo, will have several new pieces at his disposal as he, like Reese, tries to save his job this fall. Retained by McAdoo, Spagnuolo and his platoon have been fortified by pass rush specialist Olivier Vernon (via the Dolphins), DT Damon Harrison (via the Jets), and CB Janoris Jenkins (via the Rams) as well as touted rookie DBs Eli Apple (first round, Ohio State) and Darian Thompson (third round, Boise State). Along with DE Jason Pierre-Paul hopefully having recovered from the fireworks injury that blew off part of his fingers last summer, and inked to a one-year deal after offseason surgery on the injured hand, the defense appears to have at least been somewhat fortified following the injury-plagued 2015 campaign.

Though it is not lost upon many Giants backers that Spagnuolo’s platoons have not overachieved in nearly a decade, or since during his first stint as Coughlin’s d.c. (including the 2007 Super Bowl season).

The addition of Vernon and full recovery of Pierre-Paul are crucial, as Spagnuolo’s schemes work best when he can bring pressure with his four linemen. Spagnuolo’s blitz packages have often lacked bite, as was the case a year ago when they could not generate consistent pressure. If ex-UCLA DE Owa Odighizuwa can also stay healthy after an injury-plagued rookie campaign, Spagnuolo’s new-look DL should be able to bring some heat. The addition of the mountainous, 350-lb. “Snacks” Harrison as a two-down, run-stuffing tackle to fit nicely with holdover Jonathan Hankins should hold down the middle.

The inconsistencies in the pass rush were partly to blame for a pass defense that finished bottom of the pile last fall when it performed in a ghastly manner and allowed nearly 300 ypg (ouch!). Ex-Rams CB Jenkins was a big FA score at one of the corners; along with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, the G-Men should have plenty of firepower at the edges. Late signee Leon Hall, a longtime Bengal, provides more depth. Rookies Apple and Thompson also figure somewhere into the mix, with Apple likely to see early work in nickel packages as he learns to cover the slot.

The offense certainly has fewer questions after ranking 8th overall a year ago and with Eli posting his second straight big statistical season (4436 YP, 35 TDP and just 14 picks, the latter far below some past Eli mistake-filled campaigns, as well as a career-best 93.6 passer rating) in the McAdoo offense. Of course, it can be argued that wondrous third-year WR Odell Beckham, Jr. has kept Eli relevant; no one in NFL history recorded more receiving yards in his first 25 games than did Beckham, who, thru only 27 games already has 187 reception for 2755 yards and 25 TDs, many of the circus-catch variety. But the offense needs better balance and another wideout to take some pressure off of Beckham, who overheated late last season (in particular vs. the Panthers’ Josh Norman, now an opponent in the NFC East with the Redskins). It appears less likely that one-time homerun threat Victor Cruz, brought back on an incentive-laden one-year deal after a spate of injuries, will be that guy. Perhaps Oklahoma rookie Sterling Shepard, the G-Men’s second-round pick, fills that role. A return to top form by TE Larry Donnell, a key cog not long ago but slowed by neck injuries, would be a welcome development.

After rotating a 4-RB committee for much of last season, the McAdoo offense landed on Rashad Jennings as the feature back in the last month, and he responded by gaining 108 ypg in the last four, and enters 2016 as the top run option, though Shane Vereen and Orleans Darkwa and perhaps UCLA rookie Paul Perkins still figure to get some carries. Last year’s renovation project along the OL was stalled by injuries, though pieces of a potentially dominant forward wall are in place, pivoting around C Weston Richburg. Second-year ex-Florida State thumper Bobby Hart showed lots of promise as a rookie and McAdoo is hoping he can step in at either the guard or tackle spot on the right side.

As last year, we don’t expect to get much company in this projection of the Giants to win the East. Still, with Eli apparently still capable of a big year (at least with Beckham’s help), what appears to be an improved defense, and a potential spark from the new McAdoo regime, the G-Men could emerge. Remember, no team has repeated as East winner since 2004, and the Giants appear more than capable of usurping the Redskins atop the division.

At this time last year, the war drums were beating in D.C., as HC Jay Gruden looked to be another of the many short-term coaching hires that have marked the ownership regime of Dan Snyder since the late ‘90s with the Washington Redskins (2015 SUR 9-8; PSR 9-8; O/U 10-7). Lo and behold, however, collapses elsewhere in the division opened an unlikely lane on the rail for the Skins, who caught fire in December and in a stretch run reminiscent of Billy Mills in the 10,000 meter run at the 1964 Tokyo Olympics would overtake the floundering Giants and Eagles to steal the NFC East.

Still, the division was so submerged in 2015 that a mere 9-7 record was good enough to win, hardly a reminder of past East glory eras when coaching giants such as Tom Landry, Joe Gibbs, and Bill Parcells once prowled the sidelines. Last year, however, no recollections of greatness were necessary to win the division, as merely getting to .500 would have been enough to qualify for the postseason. Many suspected the Redskins were not a legitimate playoff team, which was confirmed when they were whipped at home by the Packers, who had been limping down the stretch, by a 35-18 count in the wild card round.

No matter, for the first time in a while at FedEx Field, there is some stability, with no outflow on the coaching staff and GM Scot McCloughan now firmly entrenched in his role. (Though we warn that impulsive owner Snyder is still lurking not far away.) McCloughan, however, cannot rest on his laurels, as several upgrades can be used, especially on defense for a platoon that ranked rather low both vs. the pass (25th) and run (26th) in 2015. The expected release of QB Robert Griffin III opened some salary cap room, and defense got most of the FA attention, as McCloughan jumped at the chance to add Panthers All-Pro CB Josh Norman, who surprisingly became available after the FA period began. McCloughan also brought in S David Bruton, signed away from Denver where he was also a special teams ace.

Another big personnel story, however, involved QB Kirk Cousins, who flourished as the starter in a breakout 2015. Yet McCloughan might need a bit more convincing, as Cousins was given a franchise tag (though worth almost $20 million, a huge upgrade for Cousins, who made $600K while still on his rookie contract) for 2016, asking the former Michigan State man to prove himself again before getting a long-term deal.

Cousins appears to be comfy with the situation, as he has said repeatedly that he didn’t have a problem with having to prove himself all over again and then revisiting the contract situation in the offseason, a lot easier now that he will be making $19.95 million this fall.

Still, despite the fact that Cousins put up impressive numbers (4,166 yards, 29 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, while leading the NFL with a completion percentage of 69.8 ), sources said the Redskins had reservations about overpaying for a player with such a limited body of work.

Meanwhile, confident in his potential and ability to only further drive up his value through strong play in a second straight season, Cousins and his agent Mike McCartney felt no pressure to settle for less than what they perceived as the fair market value for a starting quarterback.

If he can produce statistics similar to 2015 or better, Cousins positions himself for either a 20 percent raise (which is what he would earn if Washington has to use the franchise tag to keep him a second straight offseason), or more (if the sides can agree to a multi-year deal). There’s also the possibility that Cousins gets an opportunity to test free agency. But if he plays well and Washington contends for the NFC East title for a second straight season, it’s hard to imagine team brass letting Cousins walk.

Of course, if Cousins doesn’t play as well as he did last season, he could see his value drop. But given the steady improvement he made down the stretch of 2015, and the massive contracts quarterbacks have received in recent years, this gamble of passing on a long-term deal and sticking with the franchise-tag deal for 2016 proved worth the risk in the eyes of Cousins and his advisers.

McCloughan and Gruden (the o.c. at Cincinnati before taking the Washington gig in 2014) kept the offense mostly untouched in the offseason save letting RB Alfred Morris walk (to Dallas) in free agency. Gruden believes ex-Florida RB Matt Jones is prepared to handle a heavier workload as the featured back.

Still, how far Cousins can take the Skins remains a legit question, as he beat the teams he should have beaten last season, but has yet to ascend to the elite level. Some in D.C. wonder if he is bound to be the NFL version of the Bengals’ Andy Dalton. He appears to have the needed weapons around him, with vet wideouts DeSean Jackson (in another contract year) and Pierre Garcon established threats, and TE Jordan Reed was one of the breakout stars of 2015 with a team-best 87 catches and 11 TDs. A new face to watch at WR is that of TCU rookie Josh Doctson, the Skins’ first-round pick, though he began camp on the PUP list due to Achilles tendinitis and might miss the entirety of the preseason. Considering Jackson’s and Garcon’s history of injuries, getting Doctson healthy for the regular season will be an important development in August.

Meanwhile, the OL, which shifted away from zone-blocking last season under new position coach Bill Callahan, still needs to upgrade, especially with the run, though star LT Trent Williams believes the forward wall can become “Hogs 2.0,” an ode to the legendary OLs of the Gibbs era.

As mentioned, the stop unit did not have stellar stats last season, but did rank a respectable 17th in points allowed despite placing 28th overall. Now, the addition of the aforementioned Josh Norman adds a new dynamite element to the secondary which already had a top CB in Bashaud Breeland. The addition of Norman means Will Blackmon likely becomes the nickel back, a role in which he should excel. The addition of ex-Bronco Bruton at SS, and with longtime CB DeAngelo Hall having transitioned to FS, suggests the Skins might have the best secondary in the division, if not the entire NFC. More help might come from second-round pick Su’a Cravens, a hybrid LB/S from Southern Cal who figures to come in handy somewhere for d.c. Joe Barry, who will be tempted to unleash the pass rushers and blitzers more often this season with Norman making the Skins less vulnerable in single coverage.

Free agency, however, did cost Washington run-stopper deluxe DT Terrance Knighton, once of Bridgestone Tire commercial fame but now with the Patriots, potentially leaving the Skins a bit vulnerable in the middle. The move of OLB Trent Murphy to DE has been put on hold with another Achilles tendon injury to pass-rush specialist OLB Junior Galette, who missed all of last season with a torn left Achilles before tearing his right Achilles just before training camp. For the time being, Murphy moves back to OLB, where depth became an issue after the Galette injury.

Along with Murphy, Ryan Kerrigan and Preston Smith should provide QB pressure from their OLB spots, while Chris Baker has emerged as an impactful DE. There is plenty of depth along the DL, most of it power rushers, which concurrently also leaves the Skins a bit vulnerable vs. the run.

While schedule forecasting in the NFL can be tricky, it is safe to say that Washington would be advised to have some cushion heading into late November when it embarks upon a key 3-game road trip to Dallas, Arizona, and Carolina. If the Skins can get through that gauntlet relatively unscathed they should have a decent shot at a return to the playoffs, and the division might be decided by the season-ender at home vs. the Giants on New Year’s Day.

Will the real Dallas Cowboys (2015 SUR 4-12; PSR 5-11; O/U 6-10) please stand up? Are they more like the 2014 version when a whisker away from qualifying for the NFC title game? Or like a year ago in an injury-fueled collapse to the franchise’s worst record since 1-15 in 1989, the first season with Jerry Jones as the owner?

True, we can give Jones and his boys a mulligan for last season because of the myriad QB problems that began with Tony Romo limited to four games due to twice breaking his collarbone. Without Romo, the Cowboys were 1-11 SU a year ago. The cracks in the foundation, however, went deeper than injuries to Romo, key WR Dez Bryant (who played barely half of the season), and others, as the defense also leaked too much. There were off-field issues that will carry into this season, too, with LB Randy Gregory and DE Demarcus Lawrence each looking at four-game suspensions and MLB Rolando McClain docked a big ten games to start the new season due to violations of the NFL’s substance-abuse policy. (McClain is a candidate to be released, though it would cause Jones a mild cap hit of near $1 million.)

Indeed, the latter types of personnel issues continue to haunt the organization, which has had six players suspended in the last three seasons. Moreover, top draft pick RB Ezekiel Elliott from Ohio State could be looking at a domestic abuse charge that might cloud his availability. Hardly the sorts of examples that Jones and HC Jason Garrett like to preach about character and getting the right types of guys in the Cowboy locker room.

Back to the topic of mulligans, the QB issues a year ago apparently granted another of those to Garrett, whose SU record over the past five seasons is only 40-40, with a mere one playoff win. The notoriously impatient Jones, who at an earlier stage went through coaches as fast as George Steinbrenner once went through managers with the Yankees, has apparently mellowed with age and willing to give Garrett a lot more rope than with his previous mentors such as Chan Gailey and Dave Campo. Some sources believe Jones sees Garrett as something of an extension of himself and views the ex-Ivy Leaguer as his own coaching discovery, hence the patience. Many of the same sources also said that Jones was nonetheless very exasperated last fall after other teams, such as the Texans, were able to function and even make the playoffs with their backup QBs, while the Cowboys faltered sans Romo.

If the same thing happens at the QB spot this fall, however, Jones will have himself to blame for not providing proper cover to the injury-prone Romo, who hasn’t played a full season since 2012. Jones was slow on the draw in the FA market and was recently beaten to the punch for potential backup QB Nick Foles (ex-Rams) by the Chiefs. Former Boise State lefty Kellen Moore, who was only borderline serviceable late last season when he took his turn in place of Romo after Brandon Weeden and Matt Cassel had flopped, appeared to be the backup by default before he broke a leg in camp. For the moment, Jones continues to look for a veteran reliever (perhaps the Browns’ Josh McCown now that RG III has apparently won the starting job in Cleveland) while likely taking long looks at fourth-round pick Dak Prescott (Mississippi State) and ex-UTEP Jameill Showers (who played last preseason) in the exhibition slate as Romo likely gets exposed to few snaps in August.

The plan, however, is to have a healthy Romo (with a 78-49 SU record in the regular season) in the saddle this fall, but at 36 years of age and unquestionably fragile, Jones is courting disaster without proper depth at the position. Getting WR Bryant healthy, after he was effectively hurt all season despite playing in nine games, will also be key after he emerged as one of the NFL’s top targets in 2014. Without Bryant to draw double teams a year ago, the production of fellow wideouts Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley both dropped. There is always reliable TE Jason Witten, heroic again last season when catching 77 passes, but now at 34 years of age, how long he can continue to produce at that level remains a question.

It is also hoped that ex-Buckeye Elliott can revive the infantry that sagged last season after DeMarco Murray high-tailed it to Philadelphia (and subsequently Tennessee) following his huge 2014 season of nearly 1900 YR. With Murray in the fold, the Pokes ranked second in red-zone scoring in 2014; without him in 2015, they fell to 28th. Running behind what is still considered one of the top OLs in football, Elliott could post big numbers, though his off-field issues and upright running style, which could shorten his NFL shelf life considerably, are concerns. Last year’s starter Darren McFadden (elbow injury likely rendering him out for the preseason) is now being counted upon for depth, as is ex-Redskin Alfred Morris, a FA whose numbers have dropped considerably the past few seasons.

It is no secret that Jones believes Elliott, picked in the first round instead of the expected reinforcements for the defense, is a key to a quick turnaround. Which is why Elliott’s potential off-field issues have them worried in Big D.

While keeping Romo and Bryant healthy, and Elliott out of court, are immediate concerns for Jones and Garrett, at least they have reliable PK Dan Bailey, whose 90.566 % accuracy on his FG tries is an all-time NFL best.

As for the defense, plenty of questions remain entering the fall. On top of those aforementioned suspensions, CB Orlando Scandrick is recovering from a torn Achilles tendon, second-round pick LB Jaylon Smith from Notre Dame is not likely to be ready until 2017 as he continues to rehab from serious knee surgery suffered in the Fiesta Bowl vs. Ohio State, and third-round pick DT Maliek Collins (Nebraska) is recovering from a broken foot and likely won’t be ready for the start of the regular season. At the outset, DT Tyrone Crawford is likely to be moved outside to DE until the Lawrence and Gregory suspensions are complete.

The pass rush questions, exacerbated for the first month of the season by the suspensions, have not likely been solved, nor were they addressed in free agency by Jones, who seemed to think that Lawrence was the answer after his seven sacks in the final eight games of last season. But on top of his 4-game suspension, Lawrence is also returning from offseason back surgery. Moreover, key LB Sean Lee, who has had injury problems in the past but managed to play in 14 games a season ago and mostly flourished switching to the weakside in d.c. Rod Marinelli’s Tampa 2 scheme, is off of his own knee surgery in May.

While the DL is in chaos in training camp due to the injuries and suspensions, and the LB corps crosses its fingers that it has a healthy Lee in the fall, the secondary also has question marks. After Jones bypassed several cornerbacks in free agency and skipped Florida State CB Jalen Ramsey (whom many considered the proper pick at the fourth spot in the first round for Dallas) in favor of RB Elliott on draft night in Chicago, the Dallas defensive backfield has a familiar look, not necessarily a good thing, with CB Brandon Carr taking a pay cut to stay, fellow CB Morris Claiborne inked to a one-year extension. Both have been mild disappointments from past Jones-influenced drafts, not quite the playmakers once envisioned.

Though d.c. Marinelli has brought some structure to the platoon, Dallas has not had a top ten defense since 2009, and that does not figure to change much in the fall.

While Jones doesn’t want to hear this, the Cowboys’ mostly-floundering ways since the mid ‘90s can be traced to ol’ Jer himself, who has been pushing all of the personnel buttons since moving out Jimmy Johnson in an ego move following the Super Bowl XXVIII win over the Bills. Dallas has won all of three playoff games in the 20 seasons since the Super Bowl XXX win over the Steelers in Tempe, and has not reached a conference title game in that span. Without adequately addressing the QB, pass rush, or secondary issues in the offseason, and spending the first-round pick on a boutique selection such as Elliott, the offseason pretty much encapsulated the last 20+ years of the Jones regime.

There are no elections for Cowboys ownership; unlike Ted Cruz, Jones cannot get voted out of office by the support base. Which has been an unfortunate fate for Dallas fans, whose last glory era came during the first term of Bill Clinton, a long time and more than two decades ago.

If you think we’ve had trouble trying to figure out what the Philadelphia Eagles (2015 SUR 7-9; PSR 7-9; O/U 8-8 ) have been doing in the offseason, try listening to venerable WIP radio, where the ruffled Bird fan base in the Delaware Valley has been blasting away, led in chorus by Angelo Cataldi, Howard Eskin and others.

And there was a lot to talk about after owner Jeffrey Lurie pulled the plug on the Chip Kelly regime after a penultimate-week loss to the Redskins knocked Philly from the playoff picture in late December. Shortly thereafter, defrocked GM Howie Roseman, who had lost a personnel tug-o-war with Kelly the previous year, was reinstated as personnel boss and proceeded to wipe away most of Kelly’s major roster moves (save QB Sam Bradford–more on him in a moment) in a matter of weeks, trading away RB DeMarco Murray, CB Byron Maxwell, and LB Kiko Alonso.

First-time HC Doug Pederson, the Birds’ starting QB for a very short while in 1999 at the beginning of the Donovan McNabb era, and a longtime backup QB in the league before moving to the sidelines and most recently a stint as Andy Reid’s o.c. with the Chiefs, at least knows what he is getting into with the often-delusional Birds fan base.

As for Bradford, he was the center-piece of some of the curious personnel moves by Roseman, who signed the former Heisman winner to a pricey, though shorter-term, contract extension after he stayed healthy for a full season for the first time in his pro career and set franchise records for completions (346) and completion percentage (65%) in the Kelly offense a year ago. That was before Roseman signed FA Chase Daniel, who worked in the Andy Reid/Pederson system with the Chiefs, to an expensive FA deal, ostensibly to be the backup. And all of that before trading up with the Browns for the second pick in the first round, used to take QB Carson Wentz from North Dakota State.

The plan, at least at the outset, appears for Bradford (who at one point in the spring requested a trade after the Eagles traded up for the shot at Wentz or Cal QB Jared Goff, taken first by the Rams), to keep the seat warm for Wentz, though for this season at least, Daniel would appear to be the more-likely to step into the breach should Bradford suffer a familiar injury. Most NFC East observers believe this will be Bradford’s last year with the Birds, but others believe the situation will remain fluid until at least 2017, as the timetable for Wentz, who hails from an FCS program that rarely played FBS competition, is hardly etched in granite. Stay tuned for further developments.

Meanwhile, the Birds are holding their breath that their OL can stay in tact, which was looking increasingly doubtful as preseason approached. Starting RT Lane Johnson is reportedly looking at a 10-game ban as a second-time offender of the league’s banned substance rules. At the same time, oft-injured LT Jason Peters, an eight-time Pro Bowl pick, was dealing with quad issues that were likely to keep him out of early preseason action and could jeopardize his availability in the regular season after he missed nearly 400 snaps a year ago with back and similar quad injuries.

Other changes are in store with the Pederson regime, which will junk Kelly’s high-tempo offense and zone-blocking schemes and focus more on power blocking after Chip’s offense posted progressively-worse rushing stats each of his three seasons in charge as foes got keen to the minimal number of run plays. Key FA additions were Gs Steven Wisniewski (via Jacksonville) and Brandon Brooks (via Houston) who will help shift the infantry focus to more off-guard runs. Expect more work for RB Ryan Mathews, a FA signee last season from San Diego who carried the ball just 106 times in 2015 but did gain 5.1 ypc. The slashing Mathews and still-effective scat-back Darren Sproles should be decent fits for the Pederson version of the West Coast offense.

Pederson will also adjust roles in the passing game, with Jordan Matthews likely to be used more on the outside after Kelly preferred to deploy him in the slot, from where Matthews caught 85 passes a year ago. Matthews will need some help, however, and since Pederson and Roseman are not sure second-year ex-Southern Cal star Nelson Agholor can become a proper diversion, WRs Reuben Randle (via Giants) and Chris Givens (via Ravens) were added as reinforcements in free agency. Ex-Andrew Luck Stanford target Zach Ertz should stay productive at TE after last year’s 75 catches.

The change theme continues on defense where Pederson has enlisted the well-respected former Lions HC and recent Bills d.c. Jim Schwartz to coordinate the platoon. Which needs some help after raking a poor 30th overall, including dead last vs. the rush and 28th vs. the pass, in 2015. That’s equal-opportunity bad.

Schwartz wasted no time junking the previous 3-4 preferred by predecessor Bill Davis and will reintroduce the 4-3 alignments to the Philly defense for the first time in four years. The Schwartz pet “Wide 9" will attempt to install an attack-minded identity, though the Schwartz style relies on intense pressure from four-man rushes, not extra-man pressure.

Fletcher Cox, an active DT who lined up all over the place in Davis’ 2-gap scheme, should be a load inside of the Schwartz Wide-9. Brandon Graham and Connor Barwin, who were the starting OLBs in the Davis 3-4, will move up and become DEs in the Schwartz stop unit. An x-factor will be second-year LB Jordan Hicks, who flashed plenty of upside as a rookie and will take over for DeMeco Ryans in the middle.

The questions for the Eagles are probably going to be in the secondary, where their corners like to press but are not elite athletes and were often burned deep a year ago, hastening Maxwell’s exit. Improvement from second-year ex-Utah CB Eric Rowe, who started five games last season, will be imperative for any upgrades. Nolan Carroll also showed promise at the other corner in 2015 before breaking an ankle. Ex-Ram Rodney McLeod arrived as a high-profile FA to team with holdover Malcolm Jenkins at the safety spots, but things must tighten considerably after the Birds allowed a franchise-record 36 TD passes last fall.

Given the number of changes and the fact this appears to be a potentially-awkward transition year at QB, the Eagles seem to have more questions than any team in the division. On the plus side, the Redskins looked a less-likely contender a year ago, and we know what happened last season. These days, with the league’s power base having temporarily abandoned the NFC East, we suppose anything is possible, though we aren't holding our breath for the Eagles to make the playoffs.

NFC Betting Preview
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com

2015 Year In Review

Listed among the highlights on the 2015 NFC ledger, last year saw...

A team from the NFC South (Carolina) win its division for a third straight season, only to fold like a cheap lawn chair in Super Bowl 50.

The Chip Kelly love affair in Philadelphia end in sudden divorce.

Officiating reach new levels of incompetence on the final play of the Detroit Lions-Seattle Seahawks game when a loose ball batted illegally out of the end zone was ruled a fumble and a touchback for Seattle.

The Dallas Cowboys enamored with embattled domestic abuse artist Greg Hardy, only to come their their senses and eventually release him.

Falling Asleep At The Wheel

Rested teams in the NFC have performed at a poor rate the last two seasons, going just 15-26 SU and 14-27 ATS overall, including the post season.

They were particularly disturbing as dogs (4-16 SU and 6-14 ATS) and when playing in games off a loss (7-15 SU and 6-16 ATS), while dogs off a loss are just 2-10 SUATS.

Furthermore, NFC underdogs with rest off a loss are a pitiful 0-7 SUATS in non-division battles.

Forewarned is forearmed.

NFC EAST PREVIEW

DALLAS

TEAM THEME: BACK FROM THE DEAD

Last year at the Westgate SUPERBOOK seminar in Las Vegas, I spoke highly of the Dallas Cowboys and their chances in 2015. In fact, I actually pegged them to make it to the Super Bowl. And, following season-opening victories over the Giants and the Eagles, things were looking good until Tony Romo’s collarbone was pinned to the carpet in Philadelphia. Suddenly, with Butch Cassidy out and the Sundance Kid (Dez Bryant) going under the knife with foot surgery, the Cowboys more closely resembled Annie Oakley and Calamity Jane. Romo was replaced by Brandon Weeden, who then gave way to Matt Cassel, and then finally on to Kellen Moore. Together, the terrible triumvirate combined to go an abysmal 1-12 thereafter as the Cowboys were eventually laid to rest.

A new season starts in 2016 and with it Jason Garrett is anxious to erase the memory of his only losing season as an NFL head coach, with the only Dallas team to lose seven games more than it did the previous year. This much we know for sure: based on the win-loss record of last year’s opponents, the Cowboys (along with the Lions) will face the 4th softest schedule in 2016 with foes a combined 121-143 (.458). With Romo and Bryant back to full health and operating behind the best offensive line in the NFL, Marc could be singing their praises once again in Vegas this August. Then again, for the Cowboys’ sake, perhaps he shouldn’t.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Cowboys are 1-10 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more points under Jason Garrett.

PLAY ON: vs. NY Giants (9/11)

NEW YORK GIANTS

TEAM THEME: STAND AND DELIVER

Like the good soldier that he is, commander-in-chief Tom Coughlin decided it was time to turn over the reins to heir apparent Ben McAdoo. The two-time Super Bowl winner, long vilified and lauded at the same time, suffered the misfortune of commanding the worst defense in the league last year. A $200M spend in free agency should help matters with DE Olivier Vernon, DT Damon Harrison and CB Janoris Jenkins leading the new charge. With a healthy Jason-Pierre-Paul, and No. 1 draft pick CB Eli Apple (Ohio State) in the fold, hopefully the dyke has been repaired.

Meanwhile, McAdoo – a former OC with the Packers – added WR Sterling Shepard (Oklahoma) to join Odell Beckham Jr. and unendingly injured Victor Cruz to the receiving corps. Should 6’6” TE Larry Donnell himself stay healthy, he provides QB Eli Manning a large go-to target in the red-zone. Manning rebounded from a horrendous 2013 season when he completed 63.1 percent of his passes for 4,410 yards, 30 TDs and 14 INTs and a 92.1 QB Rating in 2014. He then followed that up with 62.6% completions for 4,436 yards, 35 TDs and 14 INTS in 2015. With Manning and OC Mike Sullivan now on the same page, Big Blue’s offense should be able to stand and deliver in a wide-open NFC East division chase. Especially when you consider the Giants will face the 2nd softest schedule in 2016, with foes a combined 120-144 (.455) last season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Giants are 16-0 ATS as dogs of 5 or more points when playing off a win.

PLAY ON: vs. Philadelphia (11/6)

PHILADELPHIA

TEAM THEME: SPRING CLEANING

Moving a lot slower these days without former head coach Chip Kelly, the Eagles are about to take on a different look in 2016. New head coach Doug Pederson will rely on offensive huddles and adjustments at the line of scrimmage, rather than sheer speed, to keep opposing defenses off-balance. “We're taking a better approach this year,” said OL Lane Johnson. "You go so fast for so long, there's only so much your body can do before ultimately it's going to fail you.” Time will tell whether Pederson's style is more effective, but players certainly seem pleased by the changes. Fatefully, RB DeMarco Murray, LB Kiko Alonoso and CB Byron Maxwell – all acquired last season – were traded in a house-cleaning immediately after Kelly’s departure.

As luck would have it, former Oregon RB Kenjon Barner could be the starting tailback for the Eagles this season, especially with his receiving skills serving him well in Pederson’s offense. In another head-scratching move, the Eagles mortgaged the future in trading up to acquire QB Carson Wentz with the 2nd pick in this year’s draft right after signing QB Sam Bradford to a $22M contract extension. In soap opera fashion, Bradford then proceeded to dig himself a hole with fans in Philly when he demanded a trade immediately after Wentz was attained. As long-time, iconic Philadelphia radio and television personality Howard Eskin said, “The more things change, the more they stay the same in Philadelphia.” Amen.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Eagles will face opponents off their Bye Week in Games 6, 7 and 8 this season.

PLAY ON: vs. Atlanta (11/13)

WASHINGTON

TEAM THEME: LIVING HIGH OFF THE HOG

On the heels of only its 2nd playoff appearance in eight years, Washington was surely the surprise team in the NFL last season. After winning a total of seven games the previous two years, the Hogs rode a 9-win campaign to the NFC East championship for the first time since 1999, largely on the arm of QB Kirk Cousins. So what does Cousins do for an encore? After running the last man (RG III) out of town, the pressure would appear to be off for Cousins. But is that a good thing? Captain Kirk led the league in completion percentage (69.8%) while breaking the record for most passing yards by a Redskins quarterback. His top target, TE Jordan Reed, also had a career year and was rewarded with a five-year, $50M extension.

Thus, in horse racing circles, the chance for a ‘bounce’ in 2016 looks strong. Should Cousins take a step backwards, the running game will likely be counted on, but the loss of former RB Alfred Morris certainly won’t help a unit that dipped under 100 yards rushing per game last season for the first time since 2010. The addition of Pro Bowl CB Josh Norman from Carolina bolsters a secondary that actually slipped last year. With Washington taking on only one winning team in its first seven contests – as well as facing only one winning team as a visitor in 2016 – the schedule is paved with good intentions. But so is the road to hell.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Redskins are 3-9 SUATS in their history versus AFC North opponents, including 0-6 ATS as favorites of more than 2 points.

PLAY ON: vs. Green Bay (11/20) - *KEY as a dog

NFC NORTH PREVIEW

CHICAGO

TEAM THEME: ONE OX, TWO OXEN - ONE FOX, TWO FOXEN

How does John Fox feel these days? After being unceremoniously dumped by Denver in 2014 after melding four playoff teams and a 49-22 overall win-loss record, he then sits back and watches the Broncos win Super Bowl 50. Talk about a pit at the bottom of your stomach. Fortunately for Fox, a veteran head coach who has taken seven teams to the playoffs throughout his NFL career, he quickly found employment in Chicago where he immediately assembled a star-studded coaching staff that helped improve the Bears’ numbers all around on both sides of the ball in 2014.

Unfortunately, a rash of injuries coupled with a peculiar 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS performance mark at home left the team just one game better (6-10) than they were the preceding season. Playing on the road, though, is where the silver Fox is at his best, going 29-13 SU and 30-12 ATS in his career, including 14-4 SUATS from Game Twelve out.

Meanwhile, much maligned QB Jay Cutler enters off a career-best 92.3 passer rating last season. How he performs this season without OC Adam Gase remains to be seen. Taking on the 2nd softest schedule in 2016 should help. In closing, remember this: in John Fox’s two other head coaching stops in the NFL, his teams improved from 16-18 in their first years to 27-10 in their second years. Beware of the Bears.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Bears head coach John Fox is 14-5 SU and 16-3 ATS on the division road off a SU win.

PLAY ON: at Minnesota (1/1) - *KEY Off a win

DETROIT

TEAM THEME: LIFE WITHOUT MEGATRON

After being looked upon as a quarterback guru throughout his coaching career in the NFL, Jim Caldwell has managed to assuage many of the Matthew Stafford bashers the past two seasons – despite the fact Stafford has been sacked 89 times during Caldwell’s tenure with the Lions. This year, however, Detroit faces life without Megatron as future Hall of Fame WR Calvin Johnson has decided to call it quits. And therein lies the problem. During his stellar nine-year career with Detroit, the six-time Pro Bowler twice led the league in receiving yards while establishing an all-time NFL record with 1,963 yards in a season. Johnson’s 731 receptions and 11,619 yards will be almost impossible to replace.

The acquisition of WR Marvin Jones (Cincinnati) will help but strangely the Lions shunned wide receivers in this year’s draft, a move that may come back to haunt them. Look for Detroit to rely more on the run in 2016 while taking pressure off Jones and his starting companion, Golden Tate. New OC Jim Bob Cooter, Stafford’s QB coach the past three seasons, will certainly be under the gun. Try as they might, the Lions managed to close the season on a positive note last year, winning six of their final eight games after a 1-7 start. That’s good news considering Detroit will take on the 3rd-softest schedule in 2016 with foes a combined 121-143 (.458) last year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Detroit is 1-10 SU and 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games versus AFC South opponents, including 0-4 SUATS home.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Chicago (12/11)

GREEN BAY

TEAM THEME: BY THE BOOK

So why is it, you wonder, that the Packers seem to annually field one of the NFL’s deepest rosters? According to Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com, it’s because “they never lose players they want to keep and perennially replenish their roster with useful draft picks.” It’s a tried-and-true formula that has worked in Green Bay since GM Ted Thompson took over in 2005. The proof, as they say, is in the pudding and the Pack has suffered only one losing season since while making the playoffs each of the last seven years (also won at least 10 games in six of those seasons).

Last year we wrote that the offense was good. Real good. But unfortunately with the loss of star WR Jordy Nelson – QB Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target – right out of the gate, it was a tale of two seasons for the Packers. They started 6-0 and carried that perfect record into the Bye Week, where they proceeded to lose four of the next five. Back-to-back losses to end the season sent the Packers to Washington for the wild card round after failing to win the NFC North for the first time since 2010. This season, with Nelson back in the lineup, Green Bay will face the softest schedule in 2016 with foes a combined 118-144 (.450). With that, it’s conceivable the Packers could be favored in every game this season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Aaron Rodgers is 15-3 SUATS in division games off a spread loss.

PLAY ON: at Minnesota (9/18) - *KEY as a dog

MINNESOTA

TEAM THEME: BRIDGE TO SUCCESS

QB Teddy Bridgewater broke into the NFL by completing 64.4% of his passes for 14 TDs in his rookie year with Minnesota in 2014. He upped the ante last season, completing 65.3% of his passes while tossing only nine interceptions. As a result, the Vikings captured their first division crown in six years. The job this year will be fending off former perennial champion Green Bay. To do so, Minny must secure things in the secondary as Mike Zimmer’s pass defenses have been super-soft, allowing 64 and 66% pass completions in his two seasons with the Vikes.

Last year’s No. 1 draft pick CB Trae Waynes and this year’s No. 2 selection CB Mackensie Alexander should go a long way toward mending the unit. On the other side of the ball, Minnesota’s offensive line has allowed 96 sacks in Zimmer’s tenure. For Bridgewater’s sake, those numbers certainly need to improve. We’re thinking the additions of OG Alex Boone (San Francisco) and OT Andre Smith (Cincinnati) will help immensely. After losing WR Mike Wallace to the Baltimore Ravens, Teddy will be ready for new WR Laquon Treadwell (Ole Miss), Minnesota’s No. 1 choice in this year’s draft. Many college football pundits feel Treadwell was the best receiver on the board. Now, if they can keep 31-year old RB Adrian Peterson – the NFL’s rushing leader last year – upright and switch-free, they could be playoff-bound once again in 2016.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Vikings are 14-3 ATS in their last seventeen games in December.

PLAY AGAINST: at Chicago (10/31)

NFC SOUTH PREVIEW

ATLANTA

TEAM THEME: NOT-SO-MIGHTY QUINN

A 5-0 start by Atlanta last year looked promising under new head coach Dan Quinn as his hire from Seattle looked to be the catch of the season. Unfortunately, a 1-7 run occurred thereafter, resulting in a disappointing 8-8 record by season’s end. Through it all, the Dirty Birds managed to improve their defense by 4 points and 51 yards per game in 2015. The Falcons made a huge pickup when they inked Pro Bowl C Alex Mack. His transition is made smoother with OC Kyle Shanahan having served as his coach in Cleveland. They also cut aging 34-year old WR Roddy White, the team’s all-time leader in receptions and passing yards. In an attempt to fill White’s shoes, they acquired former Cincinnati wideout Mohammed Sanu.

Meanwhile, QB Matt Ryan suffered through a down year last campaign when he tossed 16 picks while being sacked 30 times (his 89.0 quarterback rating was his lowest since 2009). RBs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman battled injuries but were highly effective when they suited up. Regrettably, the Falcons will face the league’s most difficult schedule in 2016 with opponents a combined 153-120 (.560) last season. Thus, a quick start against three losing foes is mandatory, especially with last year’s two Super Bowl combatants, and Seattle, on deck thereafter. Ryan’s 8-0 SUATS career mark in home openers serves as the stepping-stone.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Teams who finished last, or tied for last, have won the NFC South 11 of the last 13 years the next season.

PLAY ON: at New Orleans (9/26) - *KEY

CAROLINA

TEAM THEME: NEWTON’S LAW

Carolina has been playing a high level of outstanding football the last year and a half. A quick glance at their stat-logs since mid-November of 2014 confirms the notion as they are 22-3 SU, while having outyarded 20 of their last 25 opponents in the process. Just to be clear, there is no one in the league that tops those numbers. And to help perpetuate the momentum, the Panthers actually face the easiest opponent’s Strength of Schedule (see chart on page 22) this season based on this year’s opponents’ Super Bowls odds per the SuperBook at the Westgate in Las Vegas. So why weren’t we first in line in Vegas when Jay Kornegay posted this year’s Super Bowl odds at the SuperBook?

Simple.

Aside from being a popular public team this season the Panthers, who will be favored in every game this season but one (at Seattle), will also carry the burden of ‘Super Bowl Loser’ with them from start to finish in 2016. And with QB Cam Newton capturing last season’s MVP award behind a career-best 99.2 passer rating, we’re applying plenty of repellent this season. Oh yea, for what it’s worth: in over 600 games, Super Bowl Losers have managed to beat the spread only 48% of the time overall the following season. In addition, only 4 Super Bowl Losers have managed to make it back to the big game the following season – and they went 0-4 SUATS in the big game. Ouch.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Panthers are 7-0 ATS at home versus .750 or greater opponents behind Cam Newton.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Atlanta (12/24)

NEW ORLEANS

TEAM THEME: REVOLVING DOOR

It was more of the same for the Saints in 2015. Good offense. Lousy defense. And with it came another 7-win season for the third time in the past four years. The declining defense led to DC Rob Ryan’s firing in mid-November but it was too little, too late at that point. Many of the defensive issues were addressed in the offseason when New Orleans signed LBs James Laurinaitis and Craig Robertson, to go along with NT Nick Fairley. Snagging Sheldon Rankins with the No. 1 draft pick made current DC, and former Oakland Raiders head coach, Dennis Allen a happy camper.

And speaking of past head coaches, the Saints signed former Miami Dolphins interim coach Dan Campbell as its tight ends coach. He will work with new TE Coby Fleener, a free agent from the Indianapolis Colts. Fleener replaces Ben Watson who bolted for Baltimore. 37-year old QB Drew Brees refuses to take a step backward as he threw for 5,365 yards while completing 66.4% of his passes to post a 95.8 QB Rating in 2015. If the Saints can stay alive until Thanksgiving, New Orleans will close out the campaign against only one team that owned a winning record last season in its final six contests. It could be a tall task, though, considering the Saints will face the 2nd most difficult schedule in 2016 with foes a combined 150-121 (.554).

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Saints are 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS all-time versus winless AFC West opponents.

PLAY ON: vs. Carolina (10/16) - *KEY as a dog

TAMPA BAY

TEAM THEME: TOOL TIME

Last year Buccaneers GM Jason Licht said, “We’re not rebuilding… we’re re-tooling.” While it was easy to scoff at that statement, the fact of the matter is it appeared to be right on the money. Behind QB Jameis Winston, who starred in his rookie season, Tampa Bay tripled its win production when Winston cleared the air for over 4,000 yards and 22 TDs. Then, in a stunning announcement, the Bucs sent head coach Lovie Smith packing in favor of OC Dirk Koetter. The feeling in the Tampa camp was that if they didn’t elevate Koetter to head coach status, another team would. Koetter immediately brought ex-Atlanta Falcons head coach Mike Smith in as defensive coordinator, and respected college football guru Todd Monken as his offensive coordinator.

The bottom line is after all the dust had settled, Tampa Bay made a major upgrade while getting younger in the process. The secondary got a makeover as well: CB Vernon Hargreaves was snapped up in the first round of the draft while Miami CB Brett Grimes was an excellent free agent pickup. DE Robert Ayers brings 9.5 sacks over from the Giants to pair with reliable DT Gerald McCoy. On the other side of the ball, RB Doug Martin got back on track with 1,400 rushing yards last season. Now with a powerful draft under the Bucs’ belt, it’s tool time in Tampa these days.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Despite just 6 wins, the Bucs finished in the Top 10 in overall offense and defense last season.

PLAY ON: at Carolina (10/10)

NFC WEST PREVIEW

ARIZONA

TEAM THEME: BIRDS OF A FEATHER

Last season marked the first time since 1985 the Cardinals have enjoyed the benefit of three consecutive winning seasons. That they have delighted in four winning seasons in a row only ONE TIME in their franchise history (1922-25) isn’t the point. The fact that they are under the direction of a head coach like Bruce Arians is. He won us over in 2014 when he guided the Cards to the playoffs despite being outgained a massive 64 YPG on the season – with a 3rd string quarterback! And then when we warned readers against backing his squad last year and he went out and obliterated 2014’s effort by 3 additional wins while improving the offense and the defense by 94 and 35 YPG respectively, it’s safe to say he has our full admiration.

To corroborate our belief, consider that Arians is 33-5 SU and 30-6-2 ATS as an NFL head coach versus sub .600 opponents – including 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS last year. Simply put, it means the man beats those he’s supposed to, thus putting his team into position to challenge for a playoff spot. While Arizona will be living out of a suitcase down the stretch this season, they open the year with home games in five of their first 7 contests. Owning the fewest sacks (36) of all playoff teams last season, the addition of DT Robert Nkemdiche made a ton of sense. And so too does backing the Redbirds in 2016.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Arizona is 34-0 SU in its last 34 games when leading after 3 Quarters.

PLAY ON: vs. Carolina (10/30)

LOS ANGELES

TEAM THEME: CALIFORNIA HERE WE COME... AND GO

After 21 seasons playing under the Arch in St. Louis, the Rams are headed back to Los Angeles where they last called home in 1994. The move comes at a cost, though, as the Rams will travel a total of 32,072 miles, which is more than the Browns, Bears, Packers and Ravens will travel combined in 2016 (30,948 miles). In fact, their one-way flight back from London to Los Angeles is more miles that the Steelers will travel the entire season (5,138 miles). L.A. is hoping star RB Todd Gurley and new golden boy QB Jared Goff can help lead them back to their glory days, but don’t look for that to happen anytime soon.

The team hasn’t had a winning season since 2003, while averaging just 5.3 victories per season over the last 12 years. The distraction of rumors of the franchise heading back west proved relevant when the Rams were outgained in each of their final 8 games over the course of the second half of the season last year. As a result, Jeff Fisher’s squad ended up as the only team in the loop that slipped in total yardage on both sides of the ball, despite somehow finding a way to somehow improve both SU and ATS on their record from 2014 to 2015. All in all, not good news for a team that will face the 4th most difficult schedule in 2016 with foes a combined 148-121 (.550).

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Rams are 36-59-1 SU since owner Stan Kroenke came aboard.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Tampa Bay (9/25) - *KEY

SAN FRANCISCO

TEAM THEME: FOOL’S GOLD

Don’t be fooled by Chip Kelly’s hire. There is a lot of work to be done in San Francisco and it won’t happen overnight. For a team filled with holes, and a franchise that went to the NFC title game every year from 2011-13, the last two years for the 49ers have been intolerable. In the end, a 5-win season last year was not enough to save Jim Tomsula’s one-and-done tenure in San Fran. Say what you may about Kelly, the truth of the matter is he was able to post a 26-21 winning record in Philly without the luxury of a top-line quarterback.

And it’s not like he’ll have one here, either, with much maligned Colin Kaepernick battling Blaine Gabbert for the right to run his high-octane offense this year. Little did Kelly realize when he took the job that the Niners, despite finishing in last place in the NFC West in 2015, would be taking on the 3rd most difficult schedule in the league this year, one that will likely find the Niners underdogs in every game they play in 2016. For Frisco to have any chance at turning up the tempo and succeeding with this roster, it will need RB Carlos Hyde to operate at peak efficiency – in hopes of giving an unsuspecting defense as many needed blows as possible from an offense that doesn’t figure to be on the field much at all.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Chip Kelly is 25-3 SU away versus either NFL division or college conference foes in his career. Or – The Niners are 10-1 ATS all-time as road dogs versus AFC East opponents.

PLAY AGAINST: at Chicago (12/4)

SEATTLE

TEAM THEME: READY TO RAIN

To their credit, after being Super Bowl Losers last season following Pete Carroll’s disastrous call in Super Bowl XLIX, the Seahawks managed to find their way back to the postseason – only to lose a hard-fought 7-point decision to the Panthers at Carolina. Surprisingly, it was one of just 26 times in 108 games in which Seattle has managed to gain 400 yards behind Carroll. And with it the Seahawks’ dominance in the NFC appears be eroding. Fear not, though: Seattle’s defense is still the best in the league, allowing the fewest points and second-fewest total yards in the loop last season. Losing LB Bruce Irvin is a big blow, as well as RB Marshawn Lynch and LT Russell Okung on offense.

Still, it’s QB Russell Wilson that is the keeper of the keys. Completing 68% percent of his passes for 34 TDs and 8 INTS last season, Wilson especially shines in underdog roles where he is 11-1-1 ATS in his career when taking points from sub .900 opposition. He’s also 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS in his career versus Super Bowl winning quarterbacks. Interestingly, the Seahawks are 7-19 ATS all-time as favorites versus AFC East opponents. Given the fact that they will likely be favored in all but two of their games this season, it’s understandable why, beast or no beast, Seattle is a leading contender to make it back to the Super Bowl.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Seahawks have either led, or were within one score, in their last 88 games.

PLAY ON: vs. Carolina (12/4) - *KEY

NFC North NFL Betting Preview
By Matt Fargo
Covers.com

The cheese no longer stands alone in the NFC North. Green Bay is being challenged by the Vikings, who look to knock the Packers from the top of the division. It’s pretty much a two-horse race in the NFC North, with the Bears and Lions bringing up the rear. But could there be value in betting those beleaguered squads?

Covers Expert Matt Fargo breaks down the best ways to wager on the NFC North and gives his best season win totals picks for each of its members:

Green Bay Packers (2015: 10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS, 5-11 O/U)

Odds to win division: -153
Season win total: Over 10.5 -135/Under 10.5 +113

Why to bet the Packers: Despite making the playoffs for a seventh straight season, it was considered a disappointment for the Packers. They were Super Bowl contenders coming in but an injury to wide receiver Jordy Nelson really hurt the offense and they never got on track. Green Bay will be a highly motivated team after not winning the NFC North for the first time since 2010 which was the year it won the Super Bowl. The schedule is ranked as the easiest in the entire league which seems almost unfair with the Cheeseheads as one of the strongest teams in the NFL on an annual basis.

Why not to bet the Packers: As witnessed last season, a significant injury can derail a team pretty easily and Green Bay was not itself after a 6-0 start to the season. Even though we can expect a highly-motivated Packers team, high expectations can create pressure and the pressure is certainly on. While Green Bay used to have no one to give them much resistance, the Vikings are a team on the rise so winning the division is far from a guarantee. The schedule is easy, but it’s back loaded with five road games in the last eight which is disappointing because that’s the time of year the Packers have a big home field edge.

Season win total pick: Over 10.5

Minnesota Vikings (2015: 11-5 SU, 13-3 ATS, 4-11-1 O/U)

Odds to win division: +177
Season win total: Over 9.5 -130/Under 9.5 +109

Why to bet the Vikings: Minnesota has increased its win total each of the last three years, going from five to seven to 11 victories. Trying to take the NFC North once again will be a challenge against a healthy Packers team but the pieces are in place for another run. After playing just one game in 2014, Adrian Peterson came back and didn’t miss a step as he rushed for 1,485 yards - the third highest total in his career. The Vikings upgraded their offensive line and with Teddy Bridgewater now in his third season, the pressure is off the defense to win games.

Why not to bet the Vikings: Last season was considered an anomaly by some as Bridgewater had another average season and was fortunate to have Peterson for a full year. Peterson is not getting any younger so Bridgewater needs to pick up his game. The defense was fifth in points allowed but No. 13 in total defense, including No. 17 in rushing defense. Nine of the Vikings’ 11 wins last season came against non-playoff teams and for a team that went 13-3 against the spread, a regression is an almost guarantee. A hangover from that brutal playoff loss to Seattle is more than possible.

Season win total pick: Under 9.5

Detroit Lions (2015: 7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS, 9-7 O/U)

Odds to win division: +1200
Season win total: Over 7 -129/Under 7 +108

Why to bet the Lions: Based on the odds to win the division, the Lions have no shot and that could be a good thing for this team. It seems like every year Detroit enters the season with lofty expectations only to disappoint the majority of the time. This is the first time that the Lions have had a preseason betting win total of less than eight since 2010 and one big reason for that is the retiring of wide receiver Calvin Johnson. His replacement Marvin Jones is no slouch and the Lions did a good job in the offseason upgrading both their offensive and defensive lines.

Why not to bet the Lions: The loss of Johnson can’ be understated as he was almost uncoverable at times, so the offense has to take a step down. Matthew Stafford is considered by some to be one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL but he is just 42-51 as a starter and that could be much worse if he didn’t have Johnson to throw to. The fact that Ameer Abdullah is the No. 1 running back is not going to scare many defenses and, while an upgrade to their own defensive line was a positive, the stop unit allowed 25 ppg last season and a huge improvement from that is a must.

Season win total pick: Under 7

Chicago Bears (2015: 6-10 SU, 8-8 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Odds to win division: +1405
Season win total: Over 7.5 +128/Under 7.5 +153

Why to bet the Bears: Chicago lost Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett, but it had one of the best drafts in the NFL while also having the best free agency in the NFC. Injuries played a big factor in the struggles last season. Only four players started all 16 games, so the unfortunate luck there should turn around. Additionally, the Bears will have Kevin White, who missed all of last season, paired up with Alshon Jeffry to give Jay Cutler two solid weapons outside. The Bears defense was awful last year but John Fox is in his second season and should have the defense in a better spot.

Why not to bet the Bears: Jeremy Langford takes over as the prime running back but he averaged just 3.6 ypc last season - his first in the NFL. While White could be a star in the making, he has yet to take the field in an NFL game. Cutler is as inconsistent as they come and the loss of center Hroniss Grasu for the season because of a torn ACL does not help matters. The upgrade in defense may not be strong enough to help right away, so Cutler will have to have a big season in order for Chicago to be successful and that is a long shot.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5

NFC Sout NFL Betting Preview
By Matt Fargo
Covers.com

The NFC South, historically, is a division loaded with parody, however, the Carolina Panthers have finished at the top of the table for the last three seasons and are overwhelming favorites to win a fourth in a row. Can the Panthers shake the Super Bowl hangover or can one of the other three teams pull off a shocker in the South. Covers Expert Matt Fargo breaks down the best ways to wager on the NFC South and gives season win total picks for each of its members:

Carolina Panthers (2015: 15-1 SU, 11-5 ATS, 10-5-1 O/U)

Odds to win division: -243
Season win total: 10.5

Why to bet the Panthers: Motivation goes a long way in the NFL and Carolina has some unfinished business after losing to the Broncos in the Super Bowl. Winning 15 games again will be a stretch but it is very interesting to note that the last eight Super Bowl losers went on to win at least 10 games in the following season. Cam Newton was a consistent machine and the offense should be even stronger this year with the return of wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin. The Panthers will not be sneaking up on anyone this season but they have the talent to make another big run.

Why not to bet the Panthers: No team since the 1993 Bills has lost a Super Bowl and gone back the following season so history says there will be a dropoff in a league that boast itself about parity. The Panthers had the fourth best turnover ratio and went 7-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and those are two stats that will likely not be as good in 2016. The weakness of the defense is the secondary which has gone from one of the best to one of the worst with the departure of Josh Norman to Washington and the retirement of Charles Tillman.

Season win total pick: Over 10.5

New Orleans Saints (2015: 7-9 SU, 8-7- ATS, 9-6-1 O/U)

Odds to win division: +473
Season win total: 7

Why to bet the Saints: The Saints have gone 7-9 in three of the last four seasons which is shocking with the talent they have had on offense. Expectations have been high almost every year but that is not the case this season as linesmakers have set their total at seven wins, the least amount since 2005. That gives New Orleans some value this season as the offense will be plenty good again but the defense will have to improve quite a bit to give it a chance as closing the gap on Carolina. The last time the Saints had back-to-back seasons of eight or fewer wins, they went 13-3 in 2009 and won the Super Bowl.

Why not to bet the Saints: Expectations are low in New Orleans because of that awful defense that finished dead last in points allowed last season at 29.8 ppg. The Saints home field advantage has disappeared as after going 37-11 from 2007-2013, they are just 7-9 at home the last two years. While Drew Brees is still an above average quarterback, he is not getting any younger and has an average running game to back him up. New Orleans led the league in pass rate last season and will have to do it again to try and outscore teams because of its bad stop unit.

Season win total pick: Over 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2015: 6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS, 9-7 O/U)

Odds to win division: +749
Season win total: 7

Why to bet the Buccaneers: Tampa Bay has finished in the NFC South basement for five straight seasons and now has its fourth head coach in six years. There is plenty of optimism coming into 2016 however as Dirk Koetter takes over as head coach after serving as the offensive coordinator last season. The Buccaneers finished fifth in total offense that was mostly due to a great rushing attack and while Jameis Winston played like a rookie a lot of the time, he closed strong with just eight interceptions in his last 12 games after throwing seven in his first four games.

Why not to bet the Buccaneers: Five of the Buccaneers six wins last season came by a touchdown or less while six losses were by double-digits so there is still a lot of ground to make up to play more consistent. The defense was the problem so it was a little surprising they let Lovie Smith go as he is a defense guy and replacing him with an offense guy. Tampa Bay did hire Mike Smith as the defensive coordinator but his defenses in Atlanta were 24th or worse in his last three seasons there. The Buccaneers were seventh to last in points allowed so they will need a drastic improvement.

Season win total pick: Under 7

Atlanta Falcons (2015: 8-8 SU, 6-10 ATS, 2-131 O/U)

Odds to win division: +900
Season win total: 7.5

Why to bet the Falcons: It was a good bounce back season for Atlanta as it went 8-8 after winning just 10 games the previous two seasons combined. Head coach Dan Quinn did a great job on the defensive side of things as Atlanta went from No. 32 in points allowed and No. 27 in yards allowed in 2014 to No. 16 and No. 14 respectively last season. The highlight from last season was handing the Panthers their only regular season loss in Week 16 which should give them confidence. Wining on the road has long been an issue but the Falcons were solid last year with a 4-4 record.

Why not to bet the Falcons: It is hard to gauge which Atlanta team we will see this season, the one that started 5-0 and also defeated Carolina, or the one that finished 2-7 in their last nine games. To their credit, five of those last seven losses came by four points or less but at the same time, the Falcons have to learn how to close games and that could take time. The offense scored the fewest amount of points in the eight years with Matt Ryan at quarterback and overall Atlanta was No. 27 in turnover margin. While the defense showed improvement, it is still rated near the bottom of the league.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5