Wisconsin Badgers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Preview and Predictions 09-22-2018 in NCAAF
NCAAF Previews 19th September 2018 by Gracenote
Scheduled Kinnick Stadium
No. 16 Wisconsin looks to bounce back from its first regular-season loss in almost two years when it opens Big Ten play on the road Saturday against Iowa in the Battle for the Heartland Trophy. The Badgers tumbled out of the Top 10 following a 24-21 loss to BYU last week, which ended their non-conference home winning streak at 41 games, and they hope to recover from the disappointment by beating the Hawkeyes for the sixth time in seven meetings.
The guys are hurting right now and we got to take that hurt and all own our part in it," Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst told reporters. "We've got a chance to start with a rivalry game in the Big Ten season so we've got to learn from this and move forward. Iowa is riding high after starting off the campaign with three straight wins, including a 38-14 victory against Northern Iowa last week. The Hawkeyes, who haven't started 4-0 since 2015, are ranked second nationally in total defense, giving up 209 yards per game, and hope to put the defensive clamps on Wisconsin's potent rushing attack while treating their home fans to their first win in the series at Kinnick Stadium since a 38-16 triumph on Sept. 18, 2008. "There is a difference when you get into conference play, and anybody that's in the conference understands and appreciates that," Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz told reporters. "We're playing one of the premier teams in the league and it will be a great challenge for us."
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Wisconsin -3.5.
ABOUT WISCONSIN (2-1): Alex Hornibrook threw for 190 yards against BYU to move past Jim Sorgi for 8th place on the Badgers' all-time passing yards list with 4,501 while Jonathan Taylor racked up 117 rushing yards against the Cougars to go over the century mark for the third consecutive time this season. Rafael Gaglianone's streak of consecutive field goals came to an end at 13 in a row -- one short of the program record held by Vitaly Pisetsky in 1999 -- when he missed a potential game-tying kick with 41 seconds left in the fourth quarter. Linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel (leg) and tight end Zander Neuville (leg) are likely out for Saturday's clash while linebacker Mike Maskalunas (lower body) and safety Reggie Pearson (leg) have been upgraded to questionable.
ABOUT IOWA (3-0): Nate Stanley completed 23-of-28 passes for 309 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the win against Northern Iowa en route to becoming the 13th quarterback in program history to reach 3,000 yards for his career. Nick Easley caught a career-high 10 passes for 103 yards and a touchdown while running back Mehki Sargent accounted for a personal-best 120 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns against the Panthers. Ivory Kelly-Martin, who rushed for 62 yards and a touchdown in the season-opening win against Northern Illinois, could return after missing the last two games with an ankle injury while tight end Noah Fant is expected to play after sitting out a few possessions in the first half against Northern Iowa with sore ribs.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Iowa has won five of its last six Big Ten openers.
2. Taylor has rushed for over 100 yards 13 times in 17 career games.
3. Stanley owns an 8-2 career record at home.
PREDICTION: Iowa 21, Wisconsin 20
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Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Washington Huskies Preview and Predictions 09-22-2018 in NCAAF
NCAAF Previews 19th September 2018 by Gracenote
Scheduled Husky Stadium Seattle
Arizona State recorded a memorable upset of Washington last season and the No. 12 Huskies will be looking to exact some payback when they host the Sun Devils on Saturday in Pac-12 play. Washington was 6-0 and a 17-point road favorite when it was handed a crushing 13-7 setback last October that all but doused its College Football Playoff hopes.
The Huskies opened Pac-12 play with a win over Utah last Saturday and last season's mistake-filled loss to Arizona State is still on their minds. "It doesn't matter on the opponent. You know how these games can go," Washington coach Chris Petersen said at a press conference. "They can turn out much differently if you don't get a couple breaks here and there. But that's what I think about playing in our conference. I say it week in and week out. I know for a fact, anybody can beat anybody." The Sun Devils are looking to bounce back from a loss to San Diego State as they play their first Pac-12 game under first-year coach Herm Edwards. "They've been in the Top 10. It's not by accident, they're a good football team," Edwards said of the Huskies. "Their defense, it's outstanding, one of the better defenses in college football in my opinion."
TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Washington -17
ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (2-1, 0-0 Pac-12): Senior quarterback Manny Wilkins has recorded back-to-back 300-yard passing outings and has thrown for 958 yards and seven touchdowns against two interceptions. Standout junior wideout N'Keal Harry has 21 catches for 315 yards and four touchdowns and ranks fifth in school history with 161 receptions. Senior safety Jalen Harvey had a career-best 13 tackles against San Diego State and leads a unit allowing 16 points per game with 25 stops while junior defensive end Darius Slade (team-high 2.5 sacks) is hoping to return from a hand injury that caused him to miss the loss to the Aztecs.
ABOUT WASHINGTON (2-1, 1-0): Senior quarterback Jake Browning was held to 139 passing yards in last year's loss to the Sun Devils and he's thrown the same number of touchdowns and interceptions (four) this season while passing for 764 yards. Senior running back Myles Gaskin has rushed for 271 yards and two touchdowns and is coming off his best effort of the season after rushing for 143 yards and a score on 30 carries against the Utes. The Huskies allow just 10.3 points per game with senior linebacker Ben Burr-Kirven (team-best 33 tackles) and junior safety Taylor Rapp (team highs of three sacks and three fumble recoveries) leading the charge.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Arizona State has won 11 of the past 12 meetings and holds a 19-16 lead in the series.
2. Huskies junior WR Aaron Fuller (19 receptions, 317 yards) has two 100-yard receiving outings and caught at least six passes in each game.
3. The Sun Devils allowed 311 rushing yards in the loss to San Diego State.
PREDICTION: Washington 26, Arizona State 17
Saturday’s best 13 games
Since 2015, Michigan State is 1-9 vs spread as road favorites; they’re 4-14 in last 18 games when laying less than 10 points. Spartans won four of last five games vs Indiana (4-1 vs spread), with all four wins by 8+ points- they lost 24-21 in OT in last visit here two years ago. Last 5+ years, Indiana is 6-7 as home underdogs; they’re 6-13 vs spread in last 19 games when getting a single-digit spread. MSU had last week off after a 16-13 loss at Arizona State. Hoosiers are 3-0, with 705 rushing yards in those games.
Purdue lost its first three games by total of 8 points, allowing 722 passing yards in last two tilts. Purdue is -4 in turnovers; since 2015, they’re 2-11 vs spread as a home underdog. Boilers put up 472-476-614 total yards in their games this year, but they haven’t won yet. Boston College might be most improved team in country; they’re 3-0 this year, mostly vs stiffs- they beat Wake 41-34 LW, but Wake’s backup QB played- Deacons ran for 298 yards vs BC. Eagles are 3-7 in last 10 games when laying single digit spread.
Louisville got crushed by Alabama, then was outgained by 136 yards in 20-17 win over WKU last week; Cardinals won their last three games with Virginia, by 15-7-7 points, with average total of 61 in those games. Teams split last two meetings played here. Since 2010, Cardinals are 13-3 as road underdogs, 4-2 since Petrino came back to Louisville; they’re 6-6 in last 12 games when getting a single digit spread. Virginia is 2-3 as home favorites under Mendenhall; they’re 6-11-1 in last 18 games when laying less than 10 points.
Home side won four of last five Arizona-Oregon State games; Cavaliers lost last two visits here, 42-17/42-17. Wildcats are 0-2 vs I-A teams; they gave up 463 yards in 62-31 win over I-AA team LW, same team Beavers beat 48-25 week before. Since 2015, Arizona is 2-4 as road favorites; they’re 2-10 in last ten games as a single digit favorite. OSU is 6-3 vs spread in last nine games as home underdogs; they’re 4-9 in last 13 games as a single digit dog. Beavers allowed 114 points in pair of losses to I-A teams; they lost 77-31 at Ohio State, 37-35 at Nevada.
Stanford beat Oregon 49-7/52-27 last two years, beating Oregon 52-27 in last visit here, losing previous visit 45-16. Under Shaw, Cardinal is 17-12 vs spread as road favorites- they’re 9-6-1 in last 16 games as single digit faves, 13-9 in last 22 as a Pac-12 favorite. Since 2010, ducks are 1-3 as home underdogs; they’re 1-5-1 in last seven games as single digit dogs, 2-8 in last 10 games as Pac-12 dogs. Stanford held San Diego St/USC to combined 13 points in decisive wins already. Oregon scored 51.7 ppg in winning its first three games, all against stiffs.
Florida won 12 of last 13 games with Tennessee, covering its last three games when favored at Neyland Stadium, but they lost 38-28 (+4) in last visit here, in ’16. Since 2016, Florida covered one of its seven road games; they’re 8-4 in last dozen games when a single digit favorite. Since 2008, Vols are 5-13 as home underdogs; they’re 7-14-1 in last 22 games as double digit dogs. Gators gave up 303 RY in 27-16 loss to Kentucky two weeks ago. Tennessee got crushed by West Virginia, then beat up on couple of stiffs last two weeks- they blanked UTEP 24-0 LW.
Underdogs covered last four Kansas State-West Virginia games; Wildcats covered last three visits here, losing last one 17-16, winning other two SU. K-State is 24-9 vs spread in last 33 games as road underdogs, 7-1 last 2+ years- they’re 9-3 in last 12 games as double digit dogs. Under Holgorsen, WVU is 14-21 as home favorites (9-9 since ’15); they’re 9-6 in last 15 games as double digit favorites. K-State gave up 384 rushing yards in loss to Miss State couple weeks ago; they trailed I-AA team 24-16 in 4th quarter in their opener.
Average total in last six Texas Tech-Oklahoma State games is 88.8; OSU won last nine series games, taking last three played here by 1-10-38 points. Tech covered twice inlets six visits to Stillwater; they’re 8-3 vs spread in last 11 games as road underdogs. Under Kingsbury, Tech is 9-6 as a double digit dogs. Since ’08, Cowboys are 34-19-2 as home favorites; they’re 9-12-2 in last 23 games as double digit favorites. Tech beat Houston 63-49 at home LW; TY was 704-635. OSU hammered Boise State 44-21 LW, but did give up 380 PY to the Broncos.
Navy beat SMU last three years, by 3-44-41 points; LY’s 43-40 win was SMU’s only cover in the three games. Navy is 7-3 vs spread in last ten games as road favorites (0-1 in ’18); they’re 5-7 in last 12 games when laying single digit spread. Since 2014, Mustangs are 5-12 vs spread as home underdogs; they’re 3-7 in last ten games as single digit dog. Navy lost its only road game this year 59-41 at Hawai’i; they nipped Memphis 22-21 in AAC opener. SMU is 0-3, giving up an average of 43.7 ppg, outgained by average of 179.7 yards/game.
TCU treated Texas like a piñata the last four years, beating Longhorns by average score of 38-9, winning last two visits here, 31-9/48-10. Horned Frogs covered five of last seven games as road favorites; they’re 4-2 in last six tries as single digit favorites, 4-7 in last 11 games where spread was 3 or less. Texas is 4-0-1 in last five games as home underdogs, 7-10-1 in last 18 games where spread was 3 or less. TCU lost tough 40-28 game to Ohio State LW; yardage was 526-511. Texas hammered USC 37-14 LW; their one loss was 34-29 at Maryland- Longhorns were -3 in TO’s.
South Carolina won its last nine games with Vanderbilt, winning last three visits here, by 3-14-4 points; underdogs are 5-1 vs spread in Gamecocks’ last six trips to Nashville. This is first time in four years Carolina is road favorite; they covered 10 of last 12 games where spread was 3 points or less. Under Mason, Vandy is 9-6 as home underdogs; they’re 5-3 in last eight games where spread was 3 or less. SC’s game LW was PPD by hurricane; they lost 41-17 to Georgia week before, giving up 271 rushing yards. Vandy hammered MTSU/Nevada before losing 22-17 LW at Notre Dame- they outgained Irish by 40 yards, but were -3 in turnovers.
Georgia won its last four games with Missouri (1-3 vs spread); they won last three visits here, by 1-34-21 points. Under Smart, Dawgs are 6-2 as road favorites- they’re 7-6 in last 13 games as a double digit favorite. Mizzou is 6-10 in last 16 games as home underdogs (2-1 under Odom); since 2012, they’re 3-10 vs spread as double digit underdogs. Georgia hammered its first three opponents, winning 41-17 at South Carolina, running ball for 266 yds/game vs I-A foes. Mizzou is 3-0, scoring 40 points in last two games; they gave up 572 PY in 40-37 win at Purdue LW.
Wisconsin was stunned at home by 22-point underdog BYU LW; since ’12, Badgers are 13-5 vs spread coming off a SU loss. Under Chryst, Wisconsin is 10-2 as road favorites; they’re 7-3 in last ten games as single digit favorites. Road team won four of last five Wisconsin-Iowa games; Badgers won last four visits here, by 1-19-8-12 points. Since ’08, Iowa is 7-3-1 as home dogs, but 4-8 in last dozen games as single digit dogs. Hawkeyes allowed total of 10 points, 399 TY in wins over Northern Illinois (33-7), Iowa State (13-3) to start their season.
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