Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, November 20

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

American at Ohio State
The 3-0 Buckeyes host an Eagles team that is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Ohio State is the pick (-26) according to Dunkel, which has the Buckeyes favored by 35 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-26)

Game 527-528: Dayton at Georgia Tech (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dayton 61.755; Georgia Tech 63.842
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 2
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dayton (+7 1/2)

Game 529-530: Northwestern at Illinois-Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 56.595; Illinois-Chicago 50.122
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 4
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (-4)

Game 531-532: Texas State at SMU (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas State 52.782; SMU 58.730
Dunkel Line: SMU by 6
Vegas Line: SMU by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas State (+13 1/2)

Game 533-534: Miami (OH) at Xavier (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 47.160; Xavier 68.656
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 21 1/2
Vegas Line: Xavier by 16
Dunkel Pick: Xavier (-16)

Game 535-536: Wichita State at Tulsa (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wichita State 72.268; Tulsa 57.076
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 15
Vegas Line: Wichita State by 5
Dunkel Pick: Wichita State (-5)

Game 537-538: Valparaiso at Evansville (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Valparaiso 62.806; Evansville 61.070
Dunkel Line: Valparaiso by 2
Vegas Line: Evansville by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Valparaiso (+5 1/2)

Game 539-540: Iowa State at BYU (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 73.581; BYU 70.079
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: BYU by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (+5 1/2)

Game 541-542: Cal Poly at Fresno State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cal Poly 52.315; Fresno State 66.782
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 5
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (-5)

Game 543-544: San Jose State at Pepperdine (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 40.673; Pepperdine 53.905
Dunkel Line: Pepperdine by 13
Vegas Line: Pepperdine by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pepperdine (-7 1/2)

Game 545-546: North Dakota State at Western Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 56.701; Western Michigan 60.109
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: North Dakota State by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (+3 1/2)

Game 547-548: Eastern Illinois at Purdue (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Illinois 46.387; Purdue 68.806
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 22 1/2
Vegas Line: Purdue by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-14 1/2)

Game 549-550: Manhattan at Illinois State (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 58.843; Illinois State 59.675
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 1
Vegas Line: Manhattan by 2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois State (+2)

Game 561-562: Lehigh at Pittsburgh (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Lehigh 54.488; Pittsburgh 69.474
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 15
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 18
Dunkel Pick: Lehigh (+18)

Game 563-564: American at Ohio State (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: American 44.488; Ohio State 80.222
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 35 1/2
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 26
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-26)

Jim Feist

Brooklyn vs. Charlotte
Play: Under 184½

Brooklyn isn't clicking on offense with all their new pieces, 19th in scoring while shooting 43.7% as a team -- 20th in the NBA. And is anybody healthy on this roster? Deron Williams (ankle), Brook Lopez (ankle), Paul Pierce (groin) and Kevin Garnett (ankle) are all banged up, leaving Joe Johnson as the only healthy regular starter. At least they won't have to run against a Charlotte lineup that is 4th in the NBA in points allowed, preferring a slow, defensive pace. Charlotte is 29th in the NBA in scoring. Charlotte was denied a third straight overall victory Saturday with a 97-81 loss to Miami. Charlotte shot a season-low 34.9 percent and couldn't hold an opponent under 85 points for a third straight game. The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings, so look for a slow tempo battle. Play Brooklyn/Charlotte under the total.

Kyle Hunter

Boston vs. San Antonio
Play: Under 192½

The Boston Celtics are improving defensively with Brad Stevens as their coach. San Antonio isn't playing nearly as fast as they did a year ago, but they have the 2nd best defense in the NBA so far this year behind only the Pacers. San Antonio should control this game and coast to a win, which only helps the under in this game. Look for a slow tempo and solid defense from both teams. I like the value here. Take the under.

Alex Smart

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Memphis Grizzlies +8½

The Grizzlies started out slow this season, but now their grinding defense , is revving up and causing alot of irritation for opponents, as has been evident during their current 3 game win streak , where they have allowed just 91.3 ppg. Golden State their opponents tonight, have played very well so far this season, but now have to go it tonight, without Stephen Curry(concussion) and face a team that has beaten them 10 straight times incl twice last season. My data Proprietary program still predicts a SU win by the home team, but the points looks to be golden.

Ray Monohan

Toronto Raptors vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Toronto Raptors -3½

The Raptors are coming off a tough loss to Portland in overtime, the second time that has happened in the last 4 games. Hitting the road will be the perfect remedy against a Philly team that is not doing great either having lost three in row on the road. I like the Raptors chances against a team even less experienced than they are. In a game that will probably lack the intensity it should the Raptors are the tougher group. Winning by a couple of buckets should be easy.

Rob Vinciletti

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Play: Los Angeles Clippers +1

The Clippers are in a nice spot here as road teams with 1 day of rest as a pick or dog of 4 or less are 10-1 to the spread if they enter off a home favored loss at -5 or more and are taking on an opponent like Minnesota that comes in off an ats loss of 7 or more points as a road favorite in their last game. The Wolves are 2-11 straight up at home with no rest off a spread loss on the road. LA has won 6 of 7 vs winning teams and will look to atone for their home loss to Memphis. The Clippers have won the last 3 when the total is 210 or higher. Look for LA To take down the Wolves tonight.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Cajun Sports

Northern Illinois vs. Toledo
Play: Toledo +3

We want to play on home teams (not favorites of more than two points or underdogs of more than six points) coming off two home straight up wins. This system has a record of 29-7-1 ATS since 2006 covering the spread by an average of 7.73 points per game. With several strong situations favoring the Rockets we will take the points with Toledo on Wednesday night.

Bryan Power

Iowa St. vs. Brigham Young
Pick: Brigham Young

This is a revenge game for Brigham Young. Last year, they lost out in Ames by 21. This year, they get the Cyclones in their building where they have gone 32-6 straight up their last 38 (25 of 30 when favored) and have a long-term ATS home record of 119-84. This will be ISU's first ever trip to the Marriott Center. The Cougars are likely to get back guard Taylor Haws into the lineup after he missed the last two games w/ an abdominal strain. With or without Haws in the lineup, BYU's offense has gotten the job done this year. In racing out to a 4-0 SU start, the team is averaging 96.3 PPG on better than 50% shooting. They have already topped 100 points twice.

BYU is also catching the Cyclones in a prime letdown situation as ISU is ranked for the 1st time in two years thanks to an upset of then #7 Michigan over the weekend. That game was at home and Fred Hoiberg's team closed the game on a shocking 23-10 run in front of a packed house. This will be their first time playing on the road this year. Tough spot. Advantage home team.

River City Sharps

Manhattan at Illinois St
Play: Manhattan -2

Manhattan has four starters back from last year's squad and already boasts an impressive road win over Lasalle. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Illinois State lost their top six players from a year ago and are trying to rebuild, although they did get a win the other day over an unimpressive Northwestern squad. Illinois State is going to need to figure out a way to slow down the Manhattan offense, which has scored just over 81 ppg, while the redbirds are only scoring 64 ppg. The Jaspers HC Masiello is a Rick Pitino disciple and he has done a nice job improving the roster and the play at Manhattan. They continue that progress tonight with a win on the road vs. a traditional MVC quality opponent.

Carlos Salazar

Clippers vs Timberwolves
Play: Over 212.5

Carlos can't believe this total is only posted right now at 212.5. This one should have opened at 219. The Clippers aren't stopping Minnesota from scoring as this one ends up with at least 225 points on Wednesday. Get this easy winner in right now before the linesmakers realize their mistake.

Carlos Salazar's Featured Package

DAVE COKIN

DAYTON VS GEORGIA TECH
PLAY: GEORGIA TECH

It’s a battle of unbeaten entries tonight as Dayton visits Gaorgia Tech. Okay, that might be hyping things a little as the two respective 3-0 records haven’t exactly come against a succession of powerhouses. Nevertheless, both the Flyers and Yellow Jackets have some momentum rolling as they collide tonight.

One interesting aspect tonight is that it’s Georgia Tech head coach Brian Gregory facing the school he used to coach, and where he enjoyed a good deal of success. He’ll also be facing a couple of guys who were among his final group of recruits with the Flyers.

Some similarities are in play here if you take a look at the charts for these teams. Both teams are knocking down their free throws, which carries added weight right now with the new rules in play. The adjusted tempos for the Flyers and Yellow Jackets are pretty close as well.

Dayton is going to try to look for high percentage shots and will not be firing up random threes. They’ve been making a terrific percentage of those trey attempts, but they they’ve only tried 29 in their three wins. Georgia Tech has struggled from beyond the arc, dropping only 11/43 so far.

I’m a believer in maintaining a good assist to turnover ratio for pretty obvious reasons. Good passing teams get better shots. Low turnover entries get more possessions. That could come into play here, as Dayton has a 31/46 combo in their three games while the Yellow Jackets are at 46/30. Put a check mark next to Georgia Tech on that variable.

The scheduling dynamics might be worth one or two points against Dayton. It’s the first road game for the Flyers following three pretty soft home games. Plus, they’re off to Hawaii next for a tournament duel with Gonzaga. I don’t put a whole lot into this factor so early in the season in non-league games, but it’s still worth a small consideration.

I suspect this game could play out pretty close to the number. Georgia Tech appears to be the slightly superior team, they’re at home and there are a couple aspects of their play to date that I like more than those of the Flyers. Of course, this game is definitely not pick ‘em, so those edges are mostly in the line. Still, I can see an edge on the Yellow Jackets side, just enough to take a flyer on Georgia Tech minus the points tonight.

Alex Smith Sports

Valparaiso vs Evansville
Pick: Evansville

Hoosier state rivals clash as Valparaiso takes on Evansville. The Aces have been shooting well in their first 3 games, while the Crusaders, despite playing tough teams, are struggling as expected with the young freshmen and transfers who are still trying to grasp Coach Bryce Drew's system. I'll lay the points with the Aces

Mid-Major Matt

Cal Poly Slo vs Fresno State
Pick: Fresno State -5

The Bulldogs welcome Cal Poly to town on Wednesday night. Fresno is 2-1 on the young season beating UC Irvine and Northridge. This is a potent Bulldogs team with four players averaging 10 points or more and a fifth in Allen Huddleston who scores 9.7 points per contest. Cal Poly will be trying to defend the honor of the Big West who lost those two games against Fresno State. They are coming off a two point loss to Nevada 60-58 last time out. The Mustangs fell to Arizona in game one of their season 73-62 back on November 8th. This is a team that relies on Chris Eversley and Kyle Odister who score 34 combined points per game which is more then the rest of the roster combined. Cal Poly SLO has failed to cover in eight of their last 11 games against Mountain West opponents. Ironically, Wednesday has been a profitable day for Fresno State covering in 11 of their last 15 on that day. We'll take the Bulldogs to cover.

Doug Upstone

Dayton vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Georgia Tech -7½

This was correct yesterday, so let's use it again. On Wednesday, Play On home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Georgia Tech after leading their last three games by five or more points at the half, with four starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season. This easy to understand system has a veteran team playing well and presumably facing a weaker schedule to build victories. This college basketball system is 40-10 ATS, 80% the past 15 years with the margin of victory 12.3 points.