SPORTS ADVISORS
Buffalo at New England
The Patriots will try to make it 12 straight wins over the Bills when Monday Night Football kicks off from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass.
Bill Belichick’s squad has dominated the Bills, winning 11 straight (9-2 ATS) by an average score of 29-9. The games were closer last season when the Patriots had Matt Cassel at QB instead of Tom Brady, but New England still prevailed 20-10 in Buffalo as a 3½-point favorite in November and then won 13-0 in the season-finale, covering as a 5½-point chalk. The last two times Brady faced the Bills was in the Patriots’ 16-0 campaign in 2007, and New England outscored Buffalo 94-17.
Buffalo opened the 2008 season 5-1 (4-2 ATS), but fell out of contention in a hurry, losing eight of its last 10 games (3-7 ATS). The Bills added outspoken WR Terrell Owens from the Cowboys in the offseason, but he only played in the Hall of Fame Game to kickoff the preseason and sat out the rest of the exhibition campaign with a foot injury.
The Bills fired offensive coordinator Turk Schonert on Sept. 4 after the first-team offense managed just three points in 15 preseason series and head coach Dick Jauron brought in former Bills’ QB Alex Van Pelt to coach the offense. One weapon the offense will be missing tonight is RB Marshawn Lynch, who is suspended the first three games after pleading guilty to a misdemeanor gun charge in March.
New England lost Brady to a season-ending knee injury in the first half of the 2008 opener against the Chiefs, yet the team rallied around Cassel and still managed to go 11-5 (9-7 ATS), falling just short of reaching the playoffs. Now Brady is back under center looking to recapture his form from 2007 when he tossed a record-setting 50 TD passes, led the Patriots to an unbeaten regular season and won the MVP.
Buffalo is on ATS slides of 3-7 overall and 1-5 against the AFC East, but the Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five September contests and 4-0 ATS in their last four season openers. New England is on ATS runs of 4-1 on Monday nights and 36-16-1against AFC East opponents, but it is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 at home and 0-7 ATS in its last seven at home as a favorite of 10½ points or more.
The Bills have stayed under the posted total in 29 of 43 games as a road ‘dog, five of six season-openers and four of six against the AFC East. The Patriots have topped the total in six of seven overall, four of five against the AFC and nine of 12 season openers. Finally, the under is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings in this series and 9-1 in the last 10 in Foxborough.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND and UNDER
San Diego at Oakland
Like New England, the Chargers will also be looking to make it 12 straight wins over an opponent when they travel to Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum to battle the AFC West rival Raiders in the second game of a Monday night doubleheader.
San Diego finished 8-8 (7-8-1 ATS) in 2008, but won AFC West thanks to a four-game season-ending winning streak (3-1 ATS). In the playoffs, the Chargers beat the Colts 23-17 as a 1½-point home underdog in the wild-card round then went to Pittsburgh and lost 35-24 to the eventual Super Bowl champs in the divisional round as 6½-point ‘dogs.
The Chargers inked QB Philip Rivers to a long-term deal over the summer, coming off his career-best 2008 numbers that featured 4,009 yards passing, 34 TDs and an NFL-best 105.5 passer rating. RB LaDainian Tomlinson ran for a career-low 1,110 yards last season and 12 TDs, his lowest number of scores since his rookie campaign. Defensively, Norv Turner’s squad will be looking to improve on its No. 25 ranking from a season ago.
The Raiders have posted an NFL-worst 24-72 record since reaching the Super Bowl in January 2003. They have lost at least 11 games in a record six straight seasons, including last year’s 5-11 (7-9 ATS) mark. On the bright side, former top overall pick JaMarcus Russell had an 88.5 passer rating in his final seven starts last year, going 3-4 with seven TDs and four INTs.
Oakland has been the center of off-field controversy this year with head coach Tom Cable being investigated for allegedly assaulting defensive assistant coach Randy Hanson and newly acquired DL Richard Seymour failing to show up in Oakland after the trade a week ago. Seymour has said he will be in uniform tonight.
San Diego has beaten the Raiders 11 straight times (10-1 ATS) and scored a 28-18 win in northern California last season as a nine-point favorite, its seventh consecutive spread-cover in Oakland. In December in San Diego, the Chargers got an easy 34-7 victory as a 9½-point chalk, the 13th time in the last 16 meetings the favorite has cashed in this rivalry.
San Diego is on pointspread slides of 2-5 on the road, 2-5 as a favorite and 3-7 when laying 3½ to 10 points, but the Chargers are on ATS runs of 21-7-4 against division rivals and 19-7-1 against the AFC. Oakland is in several ATS ruts, including 17-35-1 at home, 7-19 as a home ‘dog, 0-7 on Mondays and 0-4 in season openers.
The Chargers have stayed below the posted total in seven of 11 against AFC teams and four of five on Mondays, but they’re otherwise on “over” runs of 4-1 overall, 4-1 on the road and 7-0 in September. The Raiders have topped the total in seven of eight September contests and four of five season openers, but they are on “under” streaks of 6-2-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 16-7-1 against the AFC West and 6-2 on Mondays. Finally, the “under” is 6-2-1 in the last nine Chargers-Raiders clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Colorado (82-62) at San Francisco (85-59)
The Rockies will try to put some more distance between themselves and the Giants when they open a three-game set in San Francisco with Jason Hammel (8-8, 4.37 ERA) on the hill opposite the Giants’ Tim Lincecum (13-5, 2.34).
Leading San Francisco by five games in the N.L. wild-card race, Colorado will try to get back on the winning track after losing two straight in San Diego over the weekend, including Sunday’s 7-3 setback, coming on the heels of an eight-game winning streak. The Rockies are still on streaks of 62-31 overall, 44-20 against right-handed starters, 4-0 in series openers and 5-1 on Mondays, but they are just 1-5 in their last five roadies and 0-5 in their last five against winning teams.
The Giants snapped a four-game losing streak with Sunday’s 7-2 home win over the Dodgers. It was only the second time in 10 outings they scored more than three runs in a game. San Francisco is 6-2 in its last eight series openers and 21-7 in its last 28 at home against teams with winning road records, but the team is also on slides of 1-4 against the N.L. West and 1-4 at home.
The Rockies have won six of Hammel’s last eight outings, including Wednesday’s 4-3 win over the Reds in Colorado when he allowed two runs in 7 1/3 innings. His last road start was in San Francisco on Aug. 30 when he gave up two runs in five innings but the Rockies lost 9-5. Hammel has lost all three outings against the Giants this season, despite only allowing a combined five runs in 17 innings (2.65 ERA). Colorado is just 2-6 in Hammel’s last eight starts on the road, but they are 10-4 in his last 14 when he gets four days of rest.
Lincecum is an astonishing 8-1 at home with a 1.83 ERA, and he’s held the opposition to three runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. The reigning Cy Young winner hasn’t pitched since Sept. 3, when he held the Phillies to two runs in seven innings but lost 2-1. Lincecum allowed no earned runs in three of his last five home starts, including an Aug. 28 outing against the Rockies when he blanked them on four hits over eight innings of a 2-0 win. The Giants are 6-2 in Lincecum’s last eight starts against N.L. West foes and 4-0 in his last four on Monday.
Colorado has topped the total in four of Hammel’s last five roadies and five of six when he faces a winning team, while as a team the Rockies are on “under” runs of 7-2 on the road, 6-1 overall and 8-3 against divisional rivals. It’s a plethora of “unders” when Lincecum pitches, including 8-2 overall, 6-0 against winning teams and 4-1 within the division, while the Giants have stayed below the number in seven of their last 11 overall. Finally, the “under” is 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these teams at AT&T Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (86-56) at N.Y. Yankees (92-52)
Division leaders clash for a quick make-up game in Yankee Stadium as the Angels send Cy Young Award candidate Jered Weaver (15-5, 3.71 ERA) to the mound to face the Yankees’ Joba Chamberlain (8-5, 4.45).
Los Angeles just completed a six-game homestand with a 5-1 record, including Sunday’s 3-2 win over the White Sox. The Angels are riding several positive streaks, including 27-12 on the road, 56-27 overall, 47-23 against A.L. East teams and 20-8 in series openers.
New York is 5-2 on its current 10-game homestand and used an eight-run inning to blow out the Orioles 13-3 on Sunday. The Yankees have dominated the league the last three months, riding streaks of 41-15 overall, 42-15 as a home favorite, 19-7 in series openers and 37-15 against right-handed starters in Yankee Stadium.
The Angels have won each of the last four meetings with New York, but they are just 1-4 in the last five clashes in the Big Apple.
Weaver is 6-3 with a 4.98 ERA on the road this season, and lately he’s been dominant, going 2-0 with a 1.40 ERA in his last three starts. On Wednesday, the right-hander allowed two runs in 6 1/3 innings as the Angels beat Seattle 6-3 in Anaheim. In his last roadie, Weaver held the Royals to one run in seven innings of a 2-1 victory.
Weaver has made two starts against the Yankees this season, allowing a combined eight runs (seven earned) on eight hits in 12 innings (6.75 ERA), with L.A. winning 14-8 at home after losing 10-9 in New York. Behind Weaver, the Angels are on runs of 16-5 overall, 9-3 when he goes in a series opener and 10-4 against A.L. East teams.
Chamberlain has been limited to just three innings of action in each of his last three starts, allowing two runs in each outing. Against the Rays on Wednesday, he gave up the two runs on three hits in three innings, and the Yankees went on to win 4-2. He’s made one career start against the Angels, allowing five runs (four earned) on nine hits in 4 1/3 innings of a 10-6 loss back on July 10. With Chamberlain on the hill, New York is on streaks of 16-6 overall, 18-4 when he starts at home, 24-9 when he’s favored and 8-3 when he faces winning teams.
With Weaver pitching, the Angels are on “over” runs of 11-3-1 overall, 5-1 on the road, 5-0 in series openers, 4-1 on Monday, 9-3-1 as a favorite, 8-3-2 against the A.L. East and 5-0 against the Yankees. As a team, however, the Angels are on “under” streaks of 14-3-1 overall, 5-0 on the road, 8-0-1 as a favorite and 4-0-1 against winning teams. Meanwhile, the Yankees have topped the total in 10 of Chamberlain’s 14 starts overall and five of his six at home, while as a team they have gone over the total in 19 of 30 against the A.L. West and eight of 12 as a favorite.
Finally, the over is 21-7 in the last 28 clashes between these squads and 5-0 in the last five in the Bronx.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Cajun Sports
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Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
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Monday Night Football kicks off with a double-header with the first matchup taking place in New England with the host New England Patriots and the visiting Buffalo Bills. Tom Brady makes his return after suffering a knee injury in the first game of the 2008 season. From all appearances he seems fine but there will be some rust even though he played sparingly in the preseason. The big news for the Bills in the offseason was the acquisition of WR Terrell Owens in an effort to improve the 22nd ranked passing offense in the league. This series has been dominated by the ‘under’ with 21 of 33 falling below the posted total since 1992 and 16 of the last 20. The Bills are 1-11 under on the road when facing a divisional opponent for the first time of the season and 0-7 under as a road dog versus a divisional opponent before playing at home against a non-divisional opponent. The Patriots are 3-13 under as a home 7+ favorite versus a divisional opponent. NFL Teams are 1-14-1 under on the road versus a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent, 0-9-1 under on the road versus a divisional opponent before playing at home against a non-divisional opponent and 0-9 under as a favorite on grass versus a divisional opponent before playing on the road. NFL games with a total of 45.5 or more have posted a record of 4-18 under their last 22 overall. With series history on our side along with solid technical support we will play this game to fall well below the posted total as the Bills and Patriots faceoff in a defensive duel.
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GRADED SELECTION: 2* Buffalo Bills / New England Patriots UNDER 47.5
JR TIPS
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Chargers at Raiders
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The Oakland Raiders' continue to have problems after firing of their coach last year and now involves newly acquired defensive lineman Richard Seymour, who was obtained from New England last Sunday in exchange for a first-round draft pick in 2011 but did not report to the Raiders although the five-time Pro Bowler told the Boston Herald that he would report Saturday after initially being taken aback by the trade.Since falling to Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl in January 2003, the Raiders have employed five coaches in six seasons and posted an NFL-worst 24-72 record in that time, losing at least 11 games in a record six consecutive years.San Diego will begin its quest for a fourth straight AFC West title as they have the fourth-most wins since 2004 with 54.The Chargers have one of the league's rising stars in quarterback Philip Rivers who last season threw for a career-best 4,009 yards, had a league-leading 105.5 passer rating and broke Dan Fouts' team record for touchdown passes with 34. Ladamion Tomlinson has recovered from a nagging toe injury that hampered him last year and enters the season with 11,760 rushing yards (14th all-time) and his 141 total touchdowns are tied with Buffalo's Terrell Owens for fourth on that list. The Chargers also signed backup Darren Sproles as the team's franchise player.San Diego is looking to improve a defense that ranked 25th last season and Shawn Marion being back on that defense will make all the difference. The Raiders hope former No. 1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell will finally start paying off after a promising end to last season. Russell had an 88.5 passer rating over his final seven starts, winning three of them while throwing seven touchdowns against four interceptions. Oakland is also looking for a similar breakout year from another former top draft pick, running back Darren McFadden. As a rookie in 2008, he rushed for 499 yards and four touchdowns in 13 games but was plagued with toe and ankle problems. san Diedo has all their healthy waepns back this year as they feel short with a lot of injuries only to lose to the Steelers. This is the best team in the ACF when healthy and their offense will be a record breakin offense this year as they are more balanced than any team in the NFL. This a bad spot for Oakland as they looked terrible in the Preseason as no one stooped San Diego's 1st team offense in the Preseason. San Diego wins by 3 Touchdowns going away in this one.
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TAKE SAN DIEGO -9.5
JIM FEIST
TAMPA BAY RAYS / BALTIMORE ORIOLES
TAKE OVER
After such a Cinderella season in '08, the Rays have really fallen off as '09 has progressed. In fact, the Rays have lost 10 straight games! With their season over, the youngsters are getting a chance to shine. Rookie lefthander David Price starts today for Tampa and is 7-7 on the season with a 4.65 ERA. He will face off against another rookie, Baltimore starter David Hernandez. Hernandez is 4-7 on the seaosn with a 5.05 ERA. Hernandez got roughed up in his last start, lasting just 2 2/3 innings against the Red Sox where he gave up four home runs. Don't expect either pitcher to fair well today as this one should be an offensive show. Take the OVER!
DAVE COKIN
TAMPA BAY RAYS / BALTIMORE ORIOLES
TAKE BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Now that they have no hopes of returning to the post-season, the Rays are basically falling apart. Tampa is on a huge slide right now and should not be favored against a Baltimore squad that surprisingly just took two of three on the road against the Yankees. Excellent value catching the Orioles as home dogs tonight.
Vernon Croy
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Bay Rays
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Rays are 4-1 in David Price's (7-7, 4.65 ERA) last 5 starts against a team with a losing record. The Rays are 7-2 in their last 9 road games against a team with a losing record and they are 8-3 in their last 11 trips to Baltimore. The Orioles are just 0-7 in David Hernandez's (4-7, 5.05 ERA) last 7 starts as an underdog and they are also just 0-6 in Hernandez's last 6 starts against a team with a winning record. Hernandez has been hit hard in his last 2 starts and I look for the Rays bats to come alive against him Monday night. Take the Tampa Bay Rays as my MLB Free Play for Monday night.
Rob Vinciletti
LAA Angels vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees
New York finally busted out yesterday. They blew out the Orioles 13-3. Today they have Joba Chamberlain making the start against the Angels. The Angels have J.Weaver going tonight. This could be a tough spot for the Angels, as they fly cross country in to the big apple. New York qualifies in a nice system that cashes over 75% of the time. What we want to do is play on certain home teams off a home favored win, if they won by 5 or more runs and scored 10 or more runs. When the opponent comes in off a home win this system charges to almost 80%. The Yanks had a wild weekend with all the excitement of D.Jeter breaking the franchise hits record. Today things get back to normal.
DUNKEL
Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
The Brewers look to build on their 7-3 record in Jeff Suppan's last 10 starts as a road underdog. Milwaukee is the pick (+155) according to Dunkel, which has the Brewers favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+155)
Game 901-902: Houston at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 14.295; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.846
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+120); Under
Game 903-904: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Suppan) 15.671; Cubs (Dempster) 15.415
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-165); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+155); N/A
Game 905-906: Florida at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Nolasco) 14.610; St. Louis (Wellemeyer) 15.012
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-110); Under
Game 907-908: Arizona at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Buckner) 14.822; San Diego (Correia) 15.455
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Diego (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-150); Under
Game 909-910: Pittsburgh at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (McCutchen) 13.257; LA Dodgers (Garland) 16.052
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 3; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-245); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-245); Under
Game 911-912: Colorado at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Hammel) 15.836; San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.265
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-170); 7
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+160); Over
Game 913-914: Tampa Bay at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 14.104; Baltimore (Hernandez) 15.772
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+115); Under
Game 915-916: LA Angels at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 15.918; NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 17.043
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-110); Over
Game 917-918: Toronto at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Purcey) 14.711; Detroit (Verlander) 15.922
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-245); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-245); Over
Game 919-920: Oakland at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Tomko) 16.023; Texas (Feldman) 15.012
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-205); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+185); Under
Game 921-922: Cleveland at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Sowers) 15.169; Minnesota (Pavano) 14.722
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+150); Over
NFL
Game 479-480: Buffalo at New England
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 126.186; New England 141.431
Dunkel Line: New England by 15; 50
Vegas Line: New England by 10 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-10 1/2); Over
Game 481-482: San Diego at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 135.454; Oakland 130.115
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 5 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: San Diego by 7; 44
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+7); Over
Sports Gambling Hotline
Florida at ST. LOUIS -110
Sunday comp play winner on Denver-Cincinnati UNDER the total. Now 33-17-3 the last 53 days with our free plays!
Baseball action on Monday, and the time is so right for the Cardinals to end their three game losing streak.
St. Louis got swept at home by Atlanta this past weekend, and we just get the feeling that enough is enough, and the Cards will come through against the Marlins in this spot tonight.
True, Todd Wellemeyer has been a weak-link in LaRussa's rotation, but while Ricky Nolasco has won his last 2 starts, he has been far from dominant, allowing 9 runs over his last 17 innings of work.
Florida needed yesterday's game, but lost to the Nats, and they are just 2-4 their last 6 played at Busch Stadium.
At near a pick, we prefer the Cards who are still 43-29 at home this year.
Play on the Redbirds.
5♦ ST. LOUIS
Dominic Fazzini
L.A. Angels +105 at N.Y. YANKEES
Normally I would stay away from a team in the Angels' situation today, as they are traveling from the West Coast for one game in New York before leaving for Boston immediately afterward.
But despite the team's hectic itinerary, Los Angeles should come away with a victory in tonight's game, which is a makeup from a May 3 rainout.
While the Yankees are a lock to reach the postseason, the Angels still have some work to do to get in. And with a seven-game road trip that includes visits to Boston and Texas, the AL West leaders are going to have to keep their focus, something that manager Mike Scioscia is a big proponent of.
Jered Weaver (15-5, 3.76 ERA) has been Los Angeles' most reliable starter, and he is 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA in his last two outings. He is 4-1 in six career starts vs. New York, despite a 5.82 ERA, but there are plenty of Yankees that he has had individual success against, including slugger Mark Teixeira, who is batting .158 lifetime vs. Weaver and is just 3-for-25 with no RBIs against the Angels this season.
Yankees starter Joba Chamberlain (8-5, 4.45) might be the team's biggest disappointment this year. The hard-throwing right-hander still hasn't settled into his role as a starter, and is now on a very strict pitch count in order to limit his innings.
Chamberlain has lasted just three innings in each of his last three starts, allowing six runs and 13 hits in those nine innings. In his only career start vs. the Angels, on July 10, he gave up five runs and nine hits in 4 1/3 innings.
The Yankees obviously are going to have to rely heavily on their bullpen tonight, but I expect Weaver to go deep into the game and lead the Angels to victory in this one.
2♦ L.A. ANGELS
Karl Garrett
Buffalo at NEW ENGLAND -11
G-Man made it 3 straight comp play winners on Sunday, as Detroit-New Orleans sailed way OVER the posted total.
Let's get # 4 in a row this Monday night, and with Tom Brady playing in his first official game since Week 1 of last year, I am a little hesitant to make this a "premium" selection, but I am willing to go with the Patriots minus the points based on past history.
If you don't know by now, New England has reeled off 11 straight wins in this series, and they have covered in 9 of those 11 games.
The Pats have held the Bills to a paltry 6.6 points per game in the last 5 meetings, and after watching Buffalo in the preseason, I have to believe that the Bills may get held to around that number again tonight.
You can expect the home crowd in Foxborough to give Brady a rousing welcome back to the lineup, and you can expect form to hold true.
G-Man laying it with the Patriots!
4♦ NEW ENGLAND
Michael Cannon
Buffalo at NEW ENGLAND
Take the over tonight between the Bills and Patriots.
Obviously the return of Tom Brady means the Patriots should be lighting it up offensively.
But it’s the other side of the ball that has me leaning towards the over tonight.
New England is without several key members of its defense. Gone are Mike Vrabel, Rodney Harrison, Tedy Bruschi and Richard Seymour.
That’s a lot of veteran leadership that is gone and you have to wonder how the revamped Patriots defense will fare against the Bills and Terrell Owens.
Buffalo didn’t show much offensively in the preseason, but that means nothing once the regular season kicks off. It could be that Buffalo didn’t want to tip its hand too much and that will leave Bill Belichick guessing as to what the Bills philosophy will be tonight.
Lots of points scored tonight in New England.
Grab the over.
2♦ OVER
Jeff Benton
Buffalo at NEW ENGLAND
Terrible call with Sunday’s free play on the Texans, who wet the bed against the Jets and made rookie QB Mark Sanchez look like Peyton Manning. I’ll bounce back Monday, though, taking the Patriots-Bills game OVER the total.
Certainly, the series history between these teams suggests a lower-scoring game is in order, as the under has hit in six of the last nine meetings and 19 of the last 26, with both of last year’s games staying low. Then again, Tom Brady didn’t play for New England in either of last year’s contests. And neither did Terrell Owens play for Buffalo last season.
The last time Brady was under center against Buffalo was in 2008, and the combined point totals in his two games against the Bills that year were 45 and 66, both flying over the posted number. And the last time Owens faced the Patriots’ defense was also in 2007 when he was in Dallas, and there were 75 points scored in that one (T.O. caught six balls for 66 yards and a TD).
More than anything, though, this play comes down to the fact that I believe the strength of both offenses is in the passing game, and I believe defense is going to be the weak link for each of these teams in 2009. And in order to win games when the defense isn’t a strength you have to open it up on offense and try to win shootouts. Needless to say, I believe with guys like Moss, Welker, Galloway, T.O. and Lee Evans running free in the secondary all night, big plays will be there for the taking in New England.
Finally, despite the fact this has been an “under” series recently, there certainly are quite a few “over” trends that apply to both teams. For instance, the Pats have topped the total in nine of 12 season-openers, four of five against AFC teams and six of seven as a favorite. The over was also 5-2 in Buffalo’s last seven road games in 2008, and each of Buffalo’s last five Monday night games have gone over.
4♦ BILLS/PATRIOTS OVER
Stephen Nover
San Diego -10 at OAKLAND
The Raiders haven't matched up to the Chargers in the past and they don't match up to them this season.
San Diego has defeated Oakland 11 consecutive times, covering 10 of the 11. The Chargers have won and covered six of the past seven times at Oakland. The Chargers beat the Raiders twice last season by an average of 18.5 points and are better this season.
The Raiders have vocal and fanatical fans, but they still are 7-19 against the spread the past 26 times they've been a home underdog. San Diego, on the other hand, is 19-7-1 against the spread in their last 27 games versus AFC teams.
LaDainian Tomlinson is primed for a big comeback season. He's had his biggest games against the Raiders. He's rushed for 1,906 yards and scored 22 touchdowns in 16 games against Oakland.
The Raiders, though, are in their most trouble in the passing game. They have an outstanding cornerback, Nnamdi Asomugha. However, their three other secondary starters are inexperienced and unproven. Philip Rivers is off a record season. He can torch the Raiders throwing to Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers.
Oakland has some decent running backs, but no quality wide receivers and its quarterback, JaMarcus Russell, is inexperienced and inaccurate. Once the Raiders fall behind, they're in big trouble because they don't have the passing attack to get back into the game.
I wouldn't be worried about a Monday night home division 'dog either. Since 1997, Monday night division home 'dogs of a field goal or more are 5-15 against the spread.
1♦ CHARGERS
Bobby Maxwell
San Diego at OAKLAND +10
Handed out the FREE winner on Sunday with the Niners who not only covered as underdogs in Arizona but went into the desert and beat the Cardinals. Tonight I'm going with another 'dog as I play the Raiders to hang within the points against the Chargers.
I know all about the Chargers 11-game winning streak over the Raiders and I know all about the Chargers getting the cash in 10 of those 11, but both these teams have had off-field controversy to deal with in camp and when all is said and done tonight, I've got to grab the points with the Raiders.
While San Diego has dominated, games have at least been close in Oakland lately, with the Raiders losing by 10 last year, 13 in 2007, 13 in 2005 and 6 in 2004. This Raiders' team should at least be able to get 21 points on the board. And if they do that, it'll be an easy cover.
There is talent on the offensive side of the ball for Oakland with JaMarcus Russell getting the commitment from the team and he'll step up his play. In his final seven starts last season he threw seven TDs to just four INTs. Also keep your eye on second-year RB Darren McFadden who had 500 yards rushing last season. He's healthy and ready to run.
San Diego is loaded on offense, but the defense is suspect and it had to answer questions all week about Tila Tequila, LB Shawn Merriman's problem that has caused distraction during prep week for this unit.
The Chargers are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a favorite, 2-5 ATS in their last seven on the road and 3-7 in their last 10 as a road chalk of 3 1/2 to 10 points.
Oakland closed last season with two big wins and covers, at home against the Texans and on the road in Tampa. I expect some of that to carry over here. Grab the points and play the Raiders.
3♦ OAKLAND