Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Thursday, September 8th, 2016

Bruce Marshall

Yankees -1.5 +170

Alex Cobb had a very encouraging return to the mound last Friday vs. the Blue Jays, striking out 7 in 5 I{P in his first MLB action in two years following Tommy John surgery. But he is going to be on a tight pitch count and faces a Yankees team that is surging after completing a sweep over the first-place Blue Jays. CC Sabathia has been fairly effective in recent outings, allowing just 5 ER over 19 2/3 IP in his last three starts.

Rob Vinciletti

Tampa Bay at New York
Play: New York -115

This game fits a solid system that has won 16 of 20 times and plays on home favorites if both teams are off a home dog win and the road team, which is Tampa in this case scored 5+ runs. Tampa is 0-5 on the road off a home dog win and New York is 8-1 as a home favorite off a home dog win. C.C Sabathia is on the mound and he is 2-0 vs Tampa at home this year. The rays counter with A. Cobb making just his 2nd start after coming back from TJ Surgery. Look for New York to take the opener.

Scott Spreitzer

Houston at Cleveland
Play: Cleveland -142

Cleveland has a 46-25 home record after beating the Astros on Wednesday and now Trevor Bauer takes the mound against David Paulino, who is making his major league debut after only three starts in Triple-A. Bauer already has pitched seven shutout innings against Houston this season and the last three years Bauer is 3-0 with a 0.90 ERA versus the Astros in 20 innings pitched. Houston hitters have a combined .154 batting average against him. The Indians have won five of Bauer's last six starts, including an 8-3 win over Miami on Saturday when the right-hander allowed three runs and four hits in 8 1/3 innings. Houston has lost 12 of their last 16 games in Cleveland and the Indians have won seven of their last nine games overall.

Sean Higgs

Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Carolina Panthers -3

Now. Normally not a fan of road chalk in the NFL, or really any sports for that matter. Right off the bat we have a huge revenge angle from losing not just to the same team, but losing in the Super Bowl. We also have what I think is a more balanced rushing attack. I think the defenses are both very good for each team. But we have Cam Newton who clearly is moving forward, while Denver trots out a guy who lasted a real game against Purdue! And to be perfectly honest. Yes, he was the best QB during the pre-season on their roster. But make no mistake here. 1st round pick Paxton Lynch will be started by the end of October. This is a win-now team and there is no way they cut a veteran QB and not bring one if they think their rookie QB isn't ready to handle things.

Frank Jordan

Houston at Cleveland
Play: Cleveland -142

Cleveland had won six in a row before Houston came to town and took the first two games of the series 6-2 and 4-3, but Wednesday night was Cleveland's turn to win as they took the game 6-5. The win puts Cleveland back up six in the loss column in the AL Central while the loss pushes Houston two back in the wild card and even with the Yankees in the loss column. Cleveland has 10 game winner Trevor Bauer on the hill on the Thursday afternoon getaway day. Bauer has pitched well against Houston this season with a 1-0 record and 0.00 ERA in one start throwing seven shutout innings. Houston has David Paulino on the mound making his major league debut. Paulino will pitch well at times, but Cleveland will greet him rudely as they get some gappers off him early to score four runs before he exits after just five innings leading to a 6-3 Cleveland victory.

Jim Feist

DBacks at Dodgers
Play: Over

Los Angeles has scored at least five runs in each contest during its four game winning streak, including Tuesday's 5-2 triumph. Chris Owings is riding a five-game hitting streak during which he is 11-for-19 and has scored a run in five straight contests and seven of his last eight. They will have to score some runs as Dodgers righty Brock Stewart (0-2, 7.94 ERA) is on the mound. He was battered in his first two turns, surrendering 14 runs and 18 hits, five homers, over nine innings, before allowing six baserunners during a three-frame relief stint. The Over is 8-3-1 in the Dodgers last 12 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and they face Diamondbacks lefty Robbie Ray (7-12, 4.46 ERA). Arizona is on a 40-16-2 run over the total and the Over is 36-13-2 in Diamondbacks last 51 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Jack Jones

New York Yankees -121

The New York Yankees have been playing their best baseball of the season of late to get to 73-65 and only 2.5 games back in the AL Wild Card race for the 2nd spot. They still have a chance to win the division as they are 4.5 games back of the Red Sox for 1st place as well.

I believe we are getting a nice price here with the Yankees at home against the 59-79 Tampa Bay Rays. C.C. Sabathia has had a nice bounce-back season with a 4.20 ERA over 25 starts, including a 2.29 ERA in his last three outings.

Sabathia has fared pretty well against the Rays, going 14-14 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.251 WHIP in 40 career starts against them. He has given up 3 or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts against Tampa Bay.

The Rays are 15-39 in their last 54 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and 8-23 in their last 31 road games overall. Tampa Bay is 10-42 in its last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Rays are 1-5 in Alex Cobb's last six road starts. The Yankees are 45-21 in Sabathia's last 66 starts during game 1 of a series.

Larry Ness

Texas vs. Seattle
Pick: Texas

The Texas Rangers hold a comfortable 8 1/2-game lead over the Houston Astros in the AL West and also own a two-game lead over the Indians for the best overall record in the AL, which would earn them home field advantage in every postseason series (AL won this year’s All Star game, so AL winner also gets the home field edge in the Fall Classic). As for the 71-68 Seattle Mariners, they may be on the verge of looking towards the future. The Mariners are hopelessly 11 1/2 games behind the Rangers in the AL West and now sit five games behind Baltimore in the wild-card race, with the Tigers, Astros, Yankees and Royals between them and Baltimore.

Derek Holland (7-6, 4.57 ERA) takes the mound for Texas and Taijuan Walker (4-10, 4.60 ERA) for Seattle in the final contest of this four-game series at Safeco. Texas won the first two games of the series while scoring 24 runs but Seattle won last night, 8-3. Holland has won back-to-back starts and has allowed just three runs on 10 hits over 12 innings during that stretch. He now owns a 2.00 ERA in three starts since returning from a two-month absence because of a shoulder injury and historically has fared well vs Seattle, going 12-5 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 24 career appearances (20 starts / team is 12-8 ).

Seattle’s Walker opened the season as one of the organization’s top prospects (as well as the team’s No. 2 starter!) but has just FOUR wins on the season, while Seattle has gone 7-13 (minus-$825) in his 20 starting assignments in 2016. What’s even more troubling is Walker serving up three HRs and getting torched for six runs (five earned) on six hits in two-thirds of an inning while losing to the Los Angeles Angels in his last outing. That leaves him 0-4 with a 9.55 ERA over his last five starts (team is 1-4) and he’s given up 23 HRs in only 103.2 innings of work this season.

David Banks

Carolina @ Denver
Play: Over 41.5

When they last met, it was for a Super Bowl championship. This time around, Carolina and Denver open the 2016 season and each team will look a little different. For starters, the Broncos will no longer have Peyton Manning at quarterback. Trevor Siemian, who beat out Mark Sanchez, will open the season as the Denver starter. First-round draft pick Paxton Lynch will serve as the backup as Sanchez was cut and is now in Dallas.

The Panthers, the NFL’s highest scoring team in 2015, return the league’s MVP, Cam Newton, and WR Kelvin Benjamin, who missed all of last season with a knee injury. The 6-foot-5-inch Benjamin gives Newton another deadly receiving target. Tight end Greg Olsen (77 rec., 1,104 yds.) is one of the NFL’s elite and 6-4 Devin Funchess is another big target. Ted Ginn Jr. returns for his 10th season and still one of the league’s most dangerous receiver/returner combos.

While both the Broncos and Panthers have plenty of offensive talent, it the defenses of both teams that have helped each franchise reach the NFL elite. Denver still has arguably the best pair of outside linebackers in the game in Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. Ware, who is 34 years old, recorded 7.5 sacks last year, while Miller had 11. Veteran CB Aqib Talib is still one of the best at his position. Denver was the best in the NFL a year ago giving up just 283 yards per game. Carolina was sixth yielding 322.9 yards per game.

While the offenses get most of the press, it will be the defenses of Carolina and Denver that ultimately determine the Week 1 winner. Neither team wants to start the season 0-1, but it’s hard to picture Denver winning with a virtual no-name at quarterback in Siemian. If the former Northwestern QB manages the game well, the Denver defense can keep the Broncos in it.

Greg Smith

Panthers at Broncos
Play: Broncos

This was an interesting line to watch over the last couple of months. Oddsmakers had opened the Broncos as 3 point favorites, but after money slammed Carolina the line quickly moved in the other direction. My math model says the oddsmakers had it right the first time. My situation index is a tad weak due to a revenge factor of the Super Bowl, but not enough to overlook a 6 point value.

Harry Bondi

DENVER +3 over Carolina

Any time we can get the Broncos at home getting points, we are most likely going to play the underdog. Denver has one of the best home field advantages in the NFL, winning 70% of their games in the high altitude since 1992, including 16 of their last 19. They’ve also gone 3-0 ATS the last three years, and 11-6 ATS the last 14 years as a home dog. This line opened with Denver as a slight favorite, but moved all the way to Carolina minus a field goal because of the QB situation with the Broncos, but this drastic move isn’t warranted if you consider that Trevor Siemian isn’t that much of a downgrade from the 2015 version of Peyton Manning. The Broncos won with defense last year and they’ll do it again in the home opener in front of a crowd that will be as loud and energetic as ever. Super Bowl losers have dropped seven of their last nine season openers and are a money-eating 1-8 ATS in Week 1 when listed as a road favorite. Take the home dog!

SPORTS WAGERS

DENVER +3 over Carolina

When going against public opinion in these prime time games, it is almost always recommended that you wait until later in the day to pull the trigger because inevitably, a better price will be had. The number here is 3, which is a key number that books generally don’t like to come off so instead of the line moving to +3½, the vigor will (likely) move instead in our favor. We will therefore wait to pull the trigger here until after dinner. We'll update this then.

It’s a nice way to open the season with a rematch of Super Bowl 50 that was won by the Broncos 24-10 in a defensive showing for the ages. This time around there will be no Peyton Manning and the Panthers will get back Kelvin Benjamin after he sat out the entire 2015 season. Carolina will also be seeking revenge for that embarrassing SB loss that was punctuated with the all too brief press conference appearance by Cam Newton.

What we know for sure is that Carolina was 15-0 last season prior to losing its final regular season game. We also know they destroyed the Seahawks in the playoffs before destroying the Cardinals in the NFC Championship game, 49-15. This is that same team that played in those two games save for the loss of CB Josh Norman. Combine all that with the revenge factor and we can understand the appeal the Panthers have here but we’re not buying any of it. Perhaps it was Carolina that greatly overachieved last year. Carolina had the NFL’s easiest schedule and they took advantage of it by snowballing it into a ton of momentum. This year they’ll have no such luxury and it just might be very difficult to bounce back from such a humbling Super Bowl defeat. Last season, Cam Newton had a career year in which he finished eighth in Passer Rating, but missed the top 10 in the other major passing stats including yards-per-game (16th) and completion percentage (28th) and even though he finished fifth in touchdown passes, a lot of those passes travelled less than 10 yards in the air during blowouts. Now the Panthers go from a 4-point favorite in the Super Bowl played at a neutral site to a three-point favorite in Denver. If the Broncos felt disrespected in the Super Bowl, it is likely pale in comparison to how disrespected they feel here about being a dog in their own barn after winning the Super Bowl.

Another reason and perhaps the biggest of them all that this market is having trouble backing the host is that they have made it out to be Cam Newton versus Denver QB, Trevor Siemian but let us say this. The Broncos let Brock Osweiler walk out the door. They couldn’t have cared less despite grooming him. Denver beat the Panthers in the SB by 14 points with a crippled Peyton Manning that had trouble throwing 10 yards. Mark Sanchez could not beat out Trevor Siemian for the starting role in Week 1. Siemian was a seventh round afterthought in 2015 but outplayed Sanchez during camp and here we are. Paxton Lynch, the Broncos #1 draft pick is in the on-deck circle should Siemian fail. It is hard to imagine any QB being worse than Peyton Manning was in the Super Bowl. Denver’s defense won that game and there is nothing that suggests they can’t win this one too. If it means anything, Carolina looked awful in the preseason and it could very well be them and not the Broncos that suffer a severe hangover from last year. Take the points.

SPORTS WAGERS

Tampa Bay +123 over N.Y. YANKEES

After sweeping the Blue Jays to pull within a reasonable distance of making the playoffs, the Yankees stock is once again too high and that makes us instant sellers here. Meanwhile, the Rays are the only team in the AL East out of the playoff picture but the Rays are as good as any of them and they’ll have a huge impact on who gets in and who does not. Tampa is loving the impact they’re having and they’re also loving the fear they instill in the opposition. Now they’ll face C.C. Sabathia.

Sabathia has 13 quality starts in 25 attempts this season. However, at the age of 35 and with another 150 innings under his belt this year, he is not to be trusted as the chalk. In his last start, Sabathia posted a 1.50 ERA in six innings but it was all luck, as he whiffed just two batters. Most of the balls were hard hit and right at folks, which led to an xERA of 6.36. These skills aren't terrible but Sabathia's overall trajectory is still headed in the wrong direction. Sabathia knows enough about pitching to take advantage of the first pitch strike frequently but with a diminished arsenal and facing players that have seen plenty of him over the years, the risk is too high. The Yanks come in as the chalk but we’re suggesting we get the better team and starter here.

Alex Cobb returned to the mound against the Blue Jays last week after missing almost two full years with injuries. All Cobb did in his return was pitch five full innings while striking out seven Blue Jays. Cobb allowed two runs in the first inning but was near flawless afterwards with those seven K’s and inducing 67% grounders. Cobb threw 84 pitches against Toronto so there is a good chance he’ll be stretched out a bit more here. In 2014, Cobb pitched to an ERA of 2.87 in 27 starts. In 2013, he pitched to a 2.76 ERA in 22 starts. The Rays have a habit of producing aces. Next up is Alex Cobb, who was on the verge of being elite before the injuries. Back in 2014, Cobb returned from the disabled list with a vengeance. This kid has a bulldog mentality with the talent and will behind it. We are going to back him with confidence down the stretch because the window to buy low will close very quickly.

Jeff Benton

Your Thursday freebie is the Under in the Panthers-Broncos game.

Carolina opens on the road for the third straight season tonight when they face Denver in the Mile High City.

The Panthers have held Under in their previous two road season openers, and they were held to just 10 points in February's Super Bowl against Denver in a game also held Under the total. I say look for another Under to be played when Carolina and Denver get the new season underway.

The Broncos will be starting the untested Trevor Siemian, so the points will likely be hard to come by with the rookie at the helm. Not only that, but Denver did hold Under the total in 7 of their 10 home games last season - with one of the games ending in a push to the closing total.

Have to play this season opener Under the total on opening night in Denver.

2* CAROLINA-DENVER UNDER