Brad Wilton
Thursday's comp play release is the Phils and Nats to play Over the total with with Alec Asher and A.J. Cole scheduled to take the mound.
10 of Washington's last 12 home games have played Over the total, and that includes each of their last 3 in their just completed set with the Atlanta Braves.
Alec Asher made 7 starts last season for the Phillies, and went 0-6 with an over 9 ERA. He was then suspended for 80 games due to a drug suspension.
His counterpart A.J. Cole is 1-1 through 3 starts this season with a 3.86 ERA.
The Nats have plated 20 runs and allowed 15 runs over their last 3 games. Looks to me like their ball park is playing "high and fast" right now.
Phillies and Nationals open this series with an Over.
5* PHILADELPHIA-WASHINGTON OVER
Scott Delaney
Take the Washington Nationals tonight as my free play, as they will destroy the Philadelphia Phillies. I'm playing the Nats on the Run Line.
Now, that being said, let's talk about who is throwing. Philly hands the ball to Alec Asher, who will make the start after serving an 80-game suspension for PED use.
Asher went 0-6 with a 9.31 ERA in seven starts for the Phillies last season after being acquired in the Cole Hamels trade with the Texas Rangers. He is going to get rocked early and often in this game.
Washington has won the teams' last nine meetings after Philadelphia won four of six back in April. The Nats roll here.
3* NATIONALS -1.5
Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is on the Pittsburgh Pirates, as they go into a four-game home series against the Cincinnati Reds after ending an eight-game losing streak with a 4-3 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals.
Pittsburgh (68-69) can get back to .500 with a strong weekend. The bigger goal is getting into the postseason, and the Bucs do have a chance. They're behind St. Louis by 4 1/2 games. The Cardinals hold the second spot.
Pittsburgh will take care of Cincinnati, which has lost four in a row and eight of 10.
The Reds arrive after losing at home on Wednesday, 6-3 to New York, giving the Mets a three-game sweep.
All Bucs tonight.
1* PIRATES
BRANDON LEE
Rays/Yankees Under 8.5
The books have set the bar too high for Thursday's MLB matchup between the Rays and Yankees. New York sends out surging C.C. Sabathia, who has a sizzling 2.29 ERA over his last 3 starts. Sabathia has had a lot of success in his career against the Rays, posting a 3.79 ERA in his career against them. Tampa Bay counters with Alex Cobb, who pitched extremely well in his first start back after being sidelined for more than a year. Cobb held a potent Blue Jays offense to just 2 runs on 4 hits with 7 strikeouts in 5 innings of work. He's got a 1.93 ERA in 10 career starts against the Yankees. UNDER is 15-5 in Sabathia's last 20 starts against division opponents and 20-9 in his last 29 starts with a total set at 8.5 to 10 runs. Under is also 12-2 in the Rays last 14 road games after 6 straight games against a division opponent.
JIMMY BOYD
Rangers +109
The Rangers are showing excellent value here as a road dog against the Mariners on Thursday. Texas is going to be highly motivated here to get a series split after dropping 2 of the first 3. Even with those 2 wins in their last 3 games, Seattle is just 4-11 in their last 15 overall. The big key here is the edge that the Rangers have on the mound.
Texas will send out Derek Holland, who has been lights out since returning to the rotation in late August. He's made 3 starts during this stretch and owns a 2.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. In each start he's went exactly 6 innings and allowed 2 or fewer runs. Seattle counters here with Taijuan Walker, who has really had a difficult 2016 season. Walker is 4-10 with a 4.60 ERA in 20 starts. He's been especially bad of late, posting an awful 7.90 ERA and 1.463 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Seattle as a team is just 3-10 in his last 13 outings. On top of that, Walker owns an ugly 5.00 ERA and 1.630 WHIP in 5 career starts against Texas.
Rangers are 34-16 in Holland's last 50 starts against the AL West and 39-18 in his last 57 against a team with a winning record. Seattle on the other hand is just 2-6 in their last 8 against a left-handed starter 0-5 in their last 5 following a win and 1-5 in Walker's last 6 starts against the AL West.
DAVE PRICE
Seattle Mariners -113
It's now or never for the Seattle Mariners, who are 5 games back in the wild card race in the American League. They need a big finish if they want any chance. I believe the Mariners have the advantage on the mound tonight over the Texas Rangers. Taijuan Walker sports a 4.60 ERA and 1.225 WHIP in 20 starts, while Derek Holland has a 4.57 ERA and 1.335 WHIP in 17 starts. Walker is 3-5 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.212 WHIP in 12 home starts, while Holland is 2-5 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.373 WHIP in 9 road starts. Bets on any team (SEATTLE) - allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season (AL), after scoring 7 runs or more 3 straight games are 84-36 over the last 5 seasons.
Bob Balfe
Panthers -3
We waited months for this day and we get a Super Bowl rematch. The Broncos Defense is going to carry this team and really this is the last standing elite defense in the NFL. Denver is going to be just fine this year because of the play on the defensive side of the ball, but there is going to be major growing pains with a new QB and new offensive line. Last year Denver played mistake free low risk football with Manning under center. The QB position in this system is just asked to not lose the game opposed to go out and win the game for us. I am not sure that this Broncos team has the players to not make mistakes this early in the season. The Panthers front seven is nasty and should keep this Broncos Offense in check. On the offensive side of the ball for the Panthers there is no drop off this year plus they get a healthy Kelvin Benjamin back to spread the field. Cam Newton is looking for redemption and it’s kind of weird that he can do that just one game after the Super Bowl. Some QB’s never get the shot to go against the team that beat them again. I don’t expect six Carolina turnovers like in that Super Bowl. This team moved the ball well against Denver but just didn’t have the nerves to be in that spotlight and it showed. Denver partied all off season while Carolina thought about Denver all off season. If Newton can’t beat out Trevor Siemian in his first start then so be it, but Carolina is the more polished team to start this season.
OC Dooley
Brewers +165
The key to this selection actually surrounds a challenging SCHEDULE for Milwaukee who after tonight will embark on a lenghty nine-game road trip that begins in St. Louis and wraps up at Wrigley Field in Chicago. Going a bit further the Brewers will be playing 16 of the final 22 games on the highway so I am taking advantage of this evening's HOME game. Since the Cubs have a commanding Divisonal lead they have gone to a Six-Man rotation as Mike Montgomery (4.01 ERA with the team) gets just his "fourth" starting assigmment tonight against an opposing pitcher who used to don a Cubs uniform. Veteran Matt Garza is coming off a brilliant performance last Wednesday where he held a quality Divisional foe (St. Louis) to just ONE run and this evening seeks to improve on a HOME ERA (2.80) that is impressive. Garza has proclaimed to local media that is in finally PAIN FREE and it clearly shows as he has amassed SEVENTEEN strikeouts in the past 2 trips to the mound. To put that in proper perspective in his "previous" 6 starts he had only 17 combined strikeout victims to Garza is pitching his BEST baseball in years. With an upset this evening Milwaukee will improve to 7-2 since late July with Garza on the mound