Jack Jones
New York Mets -165
The New York Mets just got swept by the Atlanta Braves and cannot afford to lose Game 1 of this series to the lowly Philadelphia Phillies. I fully expect them to win today and get back on track as they are tied with the Giants and Cardinals for the two NL wild card spots.
I like the edge the Mets on the mound behind Seth Lugo, who is 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in six starts this season. He has really been dominant down the stretch, going 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in his last three starts.
Adam Morgan is 2-10 with a 5.60 ERA and 1.465 WHIP in 19 starts for the Phillies, including 2-4 with a 5.92 ERA and 1.459 WHIP in nine road starts. Morgan has never beaten the Mets, going 0-1 with an 11.42 ERA and 1.961 WHIP in two career starts against them. He has allowed 11 earned runs and 7 homers in 8 2/3 innings in those two starts.
The Phillies are 7-22 in their last 29 games following a win. Philadelphia is 7-19 in Morgan's last 26 starts, including 1-6 in his last seven road starts. The Phillies are 1-10 in Morgan's last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record. New York is 5-0 in Lugo's last five starts.
Mike Lundin
Phillies vs. Mets
Play: Under 8
The New York Mets enter Thursday in a three-way tie with the Cardinals and the Giants for the two wild-card spots in the National League. This would be a good time for them to raise their game, but instead they opened the week by getting swept over three games by the lowly Braves. Runs have been hard to come by all season for the Mets, and I think both teams will find it tough to produce runs tonight when they take on the light-swinging Philadelphia Phillies Thursday night.
Seth Lugo (4-2, 2.35 ERA) takes the ball for the Mets. He's posted a 2.21 ERA as a starter on the season and he held Minnesota to a run in five frames his last time out. Under is 5-0-2 in Phillies last seven road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Adam Morgan (2-10, 5.57 ERA) will take the ball for the Phillies. The left-hander is 0-1 with an 11.42 ERA in two career starts against the Mets, but he's pitched well lately and allowed two or fewer runs in four straight starts. The under is 7-2 in Mets last nine home games overall and 7-3 in their last 10 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
The Phillies average 3.74 runs per game, and the Mets are only a shade better at 3.91 rpg.
Jimmy Boyd
Rockies +172
Colorado is showing incredible value here as a massive road dog against the Dodgers on Thursday. The Dodgers are coming off a huge series against the Giants, where they took 2 of 3 after last night's 9-3 win. That pushed their lead over SF in the NL West to 6 games with 10 to play. I look for them to suffer a bit of a letdown here against the Rockies.
On top of that, LA will be sending out Brett Anderson for his first start since late August. Anderson wasn't any good in his first two outings, giving up 11 runs on 14 hits in 4 innings of work. He'll likely be better than that, but I don't see him shutting down the Rockies offense, who comes in with some confidence after putting up 11 runs yesterday.
We also have Colorado sending out Tyler Chatwood, who would be the Cy Young favorite if he could just make every start on the road. Chatwood is 7-1 with a 1.77 ERA and 1.136 WHIP in 11 road starts (9-2 team record). He's made one start at LA this season and allowed just 1 run on 1 hit over 8 dominant innings of work, improving his career ERA at Dodger Stadium to 1.36.
Rockies are 6-1 in their last 7 road games after a game where they stranded 3 or less base runners and 6-0 in Chatwood's last 6 road starts against division opponents.
Sean Murphy
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Under 8½
We have a premium pitching matchup on deck at Camden Yards on Thursday night as the Red Sox send ace David Price to the hill while the O's hand the ball to Chris Tillman.
Yes, Tillman has struggled lately but it's worth noting that he's pitched only twice at home since the beginning of August, also keeping in mind that his home starts are averaging just over eight total runs despite Camden Yards being known as a hitter's park. Tillman has held the Red Sox to exactly one earned run in four of his last six outings against them.
David Price was roughed up in his last start but should bounce back nicely against the slumping Orioles. Note that Price has allowed just six earned runs in 22 innings over his last three starts against the Orioles after having a tough time against them back in early April. Prior to his last outing, Price had allowed two earned runs or less in six consecutive trips to the hill.
This is obviously a big game for the Orioles as the Tigers can gain some ground playing a double-header in Minnesota and the Blue Jays are idle. Expect a low-scoring affair.
Dave Price
New York Yankees +122
The New York Yankees have won their last two to stay alive in the wild card race. Now we're getting them at a tremendous price here on the road as underdogs to the Tampa Bay Rays, who have lost three in a row. Luis Cessa is 2-2 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in 6 starts, and 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 3 road starts. He's not getting the credit he deserves from oddsmakers. He'll be opposed by Blake Snell, who is 5-8 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.648 WHIP in 17 starts, and 1-1 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.615 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The Rays are 26-53 in their last 79 vs. a team with a winning record. The Yankees are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Harry Bondi
HOUSTON (-1) over New England
We realize the Patriots are dangerous to go against as an underdog (64% since 1992), especially when at home (12-3 ATS the last 15), but we can guarantee that in none of those games did Bill Belichick have to use a third-string quarterback on a short week. Rookie Jacoby Brissett is slated to get the start behind center for New England here and while the Pats pulled off the upset at Arizona with a back-up QB in Week 1, that was a second-stringer who has been in the system for two years and had six months to prepare. Brissett didn’t even play in a pro-style offense in college and got very few reps with the first team during the preseason. Now, with just a few days to prepare, he faces a tenacious Houston defensive line that leads the NFL in sacks in his first start. Pats defense is also a bit banged up, which exacerbates the short week. Houston scores the road win.
Bob Balfe
Marlins -140
The Braves were busy putting a dent into the Mets playoff chances. Can this team do the same tonight against Miami? This is about the highest price I will ever play a team in bases. Once you get over this number it gets tough to make money with the juice that you lose all season long. The Braves are a bad baseball team who has the Mets number, but that is basically it. Miami is not the New York Mets and they seem more in position to take that last wildcard spot. Miami has to win this series because they have a crucial deciding one with the Mets coming up.