DOUG UPSTONE
Twins vs. White Sox
Play: Twins -156
Nice come from behind win by the White Sox last night over Minnesota. Not sure that happens again and here is why, home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game, with a cold starting pitcher whose WHIP is 2.00 or higher over his last three starts are 13-60 the past five seasons.
JIMMY BOYD
Nationals vs. Astros
Play: Astros -140
I like the value here with Houston at home in Thursday's series finale against the Nationals. Great pitching matchup on paper with Washington's Stephen Strasburg against the Astro's Dallas Keuchel. The big key here is that Strasburg is making just his second start back from the DL. He pitched well in his first start back, but that was at San Diego. I look for him to struggle here against a Astros offense that just put up 6 runs yesterday and is averaging 5.6 runs/game at home on the season.
I'll take my chances here with Keuchel at home, where he's 5-1 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in 7 starts this season. Not to mention Houston is 13-3 in his 16 starts overall this year. Keuchel comes in having allowed just 1 earned run in his last 2 starts. He faces a Nationals offense that hasn't been the same since losing Bryce Harper. Washington comes into this one averaging just 3.0 runs/game and are hitting a mere .181 as a team over their last 7.
Nationals are a mere 5-13 in their last 18 road games off a loss by 4 runs or more. Plus, this is a tough spot for them, as they good be looking forward to returning home after a long 7-game road trip that started out in San Diego. Keuchel is 21-5 against the ML after allowing 2 runs or less in his last 2 starts and 10-3 in his last 13 starts against a top level team that's outscoring opponents by 1 or more runs/game.
LARRY WALLACE
Red Sox vs. Indians
Play: Red Sox -149
Chris Sale this year is 14-5 with a 2.62 ERA. While pitching on the road Sale is 8-3 with a 2.30 ERA. Bauer carries a 4.52 ERA into tonight's game. Also, Bauer is 1-2 with a 7.50 ERA in his career against the Red Sox. Boston is 4-1 in their last 5 games on the road.
JACK JONES
Nationals vs. Astros
Play: Astros -141
The Houston Astros close out their series with the Washington Nationals today in what could be a World Series preview. The Astros will be motivated to win the series after splitting the first two games.
Houston gives the ball to ace Dallas Keuchel, who is 11-2 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.085 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 5-1 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in seven home starts.
The Nationals have been struggling at the plate of late because they are without Bryce Harper and a few other key bats. They have scored 3 or fewer runs in 10 of their last 15 games overall, and 4 or fewer in 15 of their last 19 contests.
Houston is 25-8 vs. a team with a bad bullpen whose ERA is 4.70 or worse this season. The Astros are 11-1 in Keuchel's last 12 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Carmine Bianco
Viitorul Constanta at FC Red Bull Salzburg
Play: FC Red Bull Salzburg -1.5 -120
The disparity in quality between these two prior to Leg 1 was discussed here and Red Bull used a big first half to put this tie away the visitors come in now needing nothing short of a big win (3 goals or a 2 goal win 4-2 or higher) to advance into tomorrow's draw. Unlikely that happens today as Salzburg will field the same 11 and have been clinical at home this season and their past two league games have been 5-1 blowouts. We'll side with RBS here to put this one away early on Thursday.
Teddy Covers
Chicago at Cincinnati
Play: Chicago -1.5
What’s not to like about the Cubs today? Joe Maddon’s squad is clicking, winners of five straight games, now 25-12 since the All Star Break. Even without Kris Bryant expected in the lineup tonight, the Cubs bats are clicking. They’ve scored 22 runs in the first two games of this series while pounding out six runs or more eight times in their last ten games overall.
That’s bad news for Reds starter Sal Romano. Reds manager Bryan Price has made it clear – he’s not going to pull his young pitchers when they face tough situations, leaving them in to sink or swim. That’s at least part of the reason why Cinci has lost four of Romano’s last five starts by three runs or more. It’s also at least part of the reason why the Reds have allowed six runs or more ten times in their last dozen games. The ‘developing, learning and growing’ part of a young pitcher’s mental makeup isn’t always pretty to watch.
The Reds bullpen behind Romano is completely spent. Three times in their last four games, Cinci’s starting pitcher has been pulled before the end of the fourth inning. The Reds pen leads MLB in innings pitched by a wide margin, and their bullpen ERA is ranked #27 in MLB. There are consistent opportunities to pile on runs late vs. this Reds squad, something the Cubs lineup is quite adept at doing!
Cubs starter Jake Arrieta was a Cy Young winner two years ago, and he won 18 games again last year. But Arrieta struggled early and often over the first half of the campaign, suffering seven losses while compiling an uncharacteristic 4.35 ERA. It’s been a very different story since the All Star Break. Arrieta has notched five wins in seven starts, while allowing two earned runs or less in all seven of those games; an ace level pitcher in dominant current form.
It’s worth noting that Arrieta has owned Cincinnati, holding current Reds to a .205 batting average and a .606 OPS in 146 career at bats against him. In his last outing on this field in early July, Arrieta threw seven innings of one hit shutout ball. No surprise here if he dominates Cinci again tonight in a game that has ‘blowout’ written all over it!
Mark Franco
Red Sox vs. Indians
Play: Indians +143
Chris Sale has yet to lose back-to-back starts and he'll need to beat the team that was responsible for his worst outing of the season to keep that streak intact. Sale looks to atone for a rocky performance versus Cleveland on Aug. 1 when he takes the mound for the Boston Red Sox in Thursday's finale of a four-game set against the host Indians. PITCHING MATCHUP: Red Sox LH Chris Sale (14-5, 2.62 ERA) vs. Indians RH Trevor Bauer (12-8, 4.50) Sale, who allowed four runs in a loss to the Yankees last time out, was roughed up for a season-high seven runs over five innings in a no-decision versus the Indians earlier this month. Prior to the loss versus New York, he was 3-0 and registered 63 strikeouts in six starts since the All-Star break. Francisco Lindor is 9-for-19 and Edwin Encarnacion 6-for-16 against Sale, who is 5-7 with a 4.44 ERA against Cleveland. Bauer improved to 5-0 over his last seven appearances (six starts) by tossing 6 1/3 scoreless innings at Kansas City, which came two days after he was used for two-thirds of an inning in relief. He beat Boston at Fenway Park on Aug. 14, giving up three runs on three solo homers while striking out 11 batters. Red Sox are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Indians are 6-1 in Bauers last 7 starts vs. American League East. Home team is 5-1 in Fletchers last 6 games behind home plate.
BEN BURNS
Padres at Cardinals
Play: Cardinals
The Padres took the opener by a 12-4 margin. Yesterday's game saw the Cards respond with a 6-2 victory. I expect the Cards to follow it up with another win in this evening's finale. Martinez has made three starts against San Diego. All three were of the "quality" variety. Overall, he had a stellar 2.70 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in those games, striking out 16 against just four walks. For the season, Martinez has a solid 3.57 ERA and that dips to 3.36 here at home. His 1.095 WHIP here suggests the ERA could potentially be even better. While he's capable of providing a quality start, Perdomo isn't in the same class as Martinez. He's 2-5 with a 4.73 ERA in 10 road starts. Factor in their advantages at the plate and in the bullpen, its easy to see why the Cards are heavy favorites. While the price may seem steep, consider that they're now 47-20 (+7.9) the past 2+ seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -175 to -250 range. Expect them to improve on those stats here.
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Eagles as the home favorite over the Dolphins.
It's "go time" for both Miami and Philadelphia, as we have reached the third game of the preseason which means coaches will be taking much longer looks at their starters this weekend.
True, Miami made it to the playoffs last season, while Philly did not, but the Dolphins have to deal with the fact starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill is not going to be around to guide this team this season.
Jay Cutler will get a longer look, but can you really trust him to be ready after sitting idle for so long?
Philly responded with the win and cover last week over Buffalo in the preseason at home, and I see no reason to go against them tonight as the small home favorite.
Backup Matt McGloin did look sharp last week for the Birds, and of course tonight we will get a longer look at starter Carson Wentz.
The Eagles get the job done at home tonight, as they take this one by a solid touchdown.
3* PHILADELPHIA -3.5
Chris Jordan
My free play for Thursday is on the Cleveland Indians over the Boston Red Sox, and I want you listing the scheduled starters: Trevor Bauer over Chris Sale.
Boston's ace left-hander is looking to avenge a tough outing against the these same Cleveland Indians on Aug. 1, when he was tagged for eight hits and seven run over five innings. But it's not just that start, Sale has had his share of troubles against Cleveland during his career, going 5-7 with a 4.81 ERA in 17 starts.
With Bauer, we have a guy who has posted a 1.51 ERA in his last six starts, and has not lost since July 16. He is in after going 6 1/3 scoreless innings against the Kansas City Royals his last time out, striking out four and allowing seven hits to earn his 12th win of the season.
Take Cleveland at this ridiculous dog price and list both.
1* INDIANS
Jack Brayman
My free winner for Thursday is on the Minnesota Twins over the Chicago White Sox, and I'm playing the boys from Minneapolis on the Run Line.
Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are Jose Berrios and Derek Holland. If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play.
Berrios is in after firinhg seven scoreless innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks his last time out, when he retired the last 13 batters he faced. He recorded a career-best 24 called strikes and struck out seven - the most strikeouts since he fanned seven in Boston on June 26. He is pitching well and is 2-0 in his last three starts.
Meanwhile, Holland has struggled terribly over his last two starts, during a season that has fallen well below his expectations. In those two outings, he's lasted just 4.2 innings - combined. In those two he allowed 14 runs on 13 hits, walking seven and striking out three putting his ERA at 6.07.
Take the Twins in a rout.
2* TWINS -1.5
Eric Schroeder
My free play for tonight is going to be on the Washington Nationals and Houston Astros staying Under the posted number.
Strasburg was fantastic in his return off the disabled list, and should be on top of his game tonight in Houston. After a first-inning home run, the San Diego-native settled in against the Padres and retired the next 10 he faced. He went on to sit down 13 of the next 14, while striking out eight Padres over six innings. I think the fireballer will be solid against the 'Stros.
Meanwhile, Keuchel - Houston’s ace left-hander - appears to have regained the form that made him the 2015 AL Cy Young winner. Spanning 13.2 innings over his past two starts, Keuchel has allowed just nine hits and one run. He won both games, and improved his record to 11-2 on the season.
In what could be a World Series preview, look for these two pitchers to duel to an under.
5* Nationals-Astros Under
DAVE PRICE
Texas Rangers +132
We're getting a nice underdog price on the Texas Rangers today, who have already taken 2 out of 3 from the Angels in this series, both times as dogs. The Rangers are now 10-4 in their last 14 games overall to get back in the wild card race. Martin Perez is 3-0 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Perez sports a 3.59 ERA in 9 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles. The Rangers are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record.