Andy Iskoe
Washington +3.5
The Giants are 2-0 with a defense that appears much improved but an offense that has struggled dating back to preseason. Washington is 0-2 after dropping a pair of home games and there are already reports of disharmony in the lockerroom. The Redskins are a desperate team and desperate often equates to dangerous. They are better than they've shown and make for an attractive take at more than a FG as they seek to avoid an 0-3 start (including 0-2 in Division) from which it is very difficult to overcome. The Giants, unable to close out opponents and win the close games last season, are 2-0 with wins by 1 point at Dallas and by 3 at the gun over the Saints. Both teams have already faced Dallas and a comparison of the games can make the case that the Giants and Washington are very close in overall talent. That makes getting a desperate team at more than a FG an attractive take.
Rob Vinciletti
New York at Kansas City
Play: New York +3
The NFL Comp system play is on the NY. Jets at 4:25 eastern plus the 3 points. The Jets have the added rest here after beating the Bills last Thursday and they fit a system based on that premise and the KC loss. The Chiefs are 0-12 to the spread at home off a loss of 6 or more points vs a team that scored 25% or more of their points from field goals like the Jets. Game 3 teams off a straight up and favored loss with a 1-1 record have failed to cover 8 of 9 vs an opponent off a win. Bowles is 5-0 ats as a dog an the Chiefs are 1-5 ats as favorites vs a team who played on Thursday. The Jets are 8-0 to the spread if they were a road dog where their opponent had 300 or more yards passing. Play the Jets plus the points in this game.
Joseph D'Amico
Steelers vs. Eagles
Play: Steelers -3½
Rookie QB, Carson Wentz went up against League doormats, Cleveland and Chicago. Let's be honest, the Browns and Bears are not the Steelers. Pittsburgh possesses a veteran attack and get to take advantage here of a Philadelphia team coming off a short week. Please remember that the Eagles current shining stars (Wentz, Burton, etc)are young, inexperienced, and have been thrusted into starting roles left abruptly by departed and injured key players. Defensively, Philly is improved, but still has yielded 27 or more points in 8 of their L11 contests. Big Ben has tossed for 559 YP, and a 62.2% CR, while DeAngelo Williams has amassed over 237 YR. The Pittsburgh hard-nosed, smash-mouth style of play is tough enough, but containing wideouts, Brown and Coates (318 YR combined) will be impossible for Philadelphia. The Eagles are 8-18-1 ATS their L27 games played vs. teams with a winning record and 1-4 ATS their L5 games played in Week 3. The Steelers are 13-4-2 ATS their L19 games played vs. teams with a winning record and 5-0 ATS their L5 games played in the month of September.
Marc Lawrence
Vikings vs. Panthers
Play: Vikings +7
Edges - Vikings: QB Sam Bradford is 16-11 ATS as a road dog in the NFL, including 10-4 ATS the last fourteen games; and 4-1 ATS as road dogs before a Monday Night game. Panthers: 3-7 ATS home favorites off a home game, including 2-6 ATS in non-division games. With the Viking 26-9 ATS in all games under head coach Mike Zimmer, we recommend a 1* play on Minnesota.
Bill Biles
Jets / Chiefs Over 42
Many people wouldn't look at this game and think of high scoring, but i see a good spot here where the over will hit. The Jets have a very solid offense and the Chiefs are banged up. The Chiefs also have potential to put up the points, and the Jets have given up a lot of big plays so far this year. Take the over in this one.
Michael Alexander
Browns vs. Dolphins
Play: Browns +10
Te Dolphins came back versus the Patriots, as soon as Garoppolo was replaced, as they almost overcame a 31-3 deficit, before barely missing in 31-24 loss, with Tannehill a superb 32-of-45 for 389 passing yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. The loss ran Miami's losses to 3-9 and 5-17 ATS runs, with a 289-196 point deficit in their last 11 games. They also have not bee able to run the ball as they have a 273-134 rushing yard shortage for the year. The Browns got a ½ point cover against Baltimore, by turning a 20-0 point deficit into a 25- 20 loss. Crowell had 133 rushing yards, including an 85 yard touchdown run. The clincher: Miami is 1-6 ATS off a division road game.
Teddy Covers
Steelers vs. Eagles
Play: Steelers -3½
Yes, the Eagles are 2-0 to open the season. But those two wins came against Bottom 5 competition, with both the Browns and Bears losing at truly dismal seasons. This is a major step up in class for a team playing on a short week, a mediocre (at best) squad who is feeling pretty good about themselves right now.
Make no mistake about it. Carson Wentz has looked pretty good, with a QB rating of 94 through his first two NFL starts. He’s yet to throw an interception and he’s only been sacked four times in 75 dropbacks. But Jordan Matthews is the only receiver with 100 yards. Despite the success of the passing game, Philly is only averaging 3.5 yards per carry. And they’ve only faced bottom tier defenses thus far, with the Browns at the very bottom of any defensive rankings and the Bears suffering a barrage of in-game injuries that left them without five defensive starters in the second half. Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t truly elite, but it’s a good notch or two better than anything Wentz and the Eagles offense has seen before.
Philly has looked good defensively against RG3 (who may never start another NFL game) and Jay Cutler (who, if Chicago wasn’t paying him a fortune, might never start another NFL game). The Steelers offense is another animal entirely. Two time Super Bowl winner Ben Roethlisberger ranks in the upper echelon of NFL QB’s. Antonio Brown is the most dangerous receiver in the NFL. Sammie Coates has emerged as a deep threat on every drive. DeAngelo Williams leads the NFL in rushing yards through the first two weeks. The Steelers hung 24 on a top notch defense in lousy weather last week, and there’s no reason to think that Philly’s defense will be able to stop them or that Philly’s offense will be able to trade points. Expect a comfortable win from the road favorite.
Chip Chirimbes
San Francisco at Seattle
Play: Seattle -10
Last week 'we' posted Carolina as our double-digit favorites winner against San Francisco and this week might be even easier as the line comes down. Seattle was taken down by the lowly Rams last week without scoring a touchdown and managed only one TD in their opener against the Dolphins and yet they are 'double-digits; here. They do have the No. 1 defense in the NFL in totals yards and rushing yards and their defense will dominate here.
Jimmy Boyd
Broncos vs. Bengals
Play: Broncos +3½
Even with Dalton expected to play in this one, I still think the edge is with Denver. Especially with the Broncos catching a field goal plus the hook.
I’ve mentioned it several times now, but Denver just isn’t getting the love you would expect to see for defending Super Bowl champion. I’m not saying they shouldn’t be a dog in Cincinnati, but they shouldn’t be catching more than a field goal.
For me this one comes down to the Broncos having an edge on both sides of the ball. Denver’s offense hasn’t been anything spectacular, but they have ran the ball effectively. The Broncos put up 148 yards on the ground against the Panthers and 134 more yards last week against the Colts.
Cincinnati has had a horrible time trying to contain the run. They allowed 152 yards on the ground against the Jets in Week 1 and 124 last week to the Steelers. As long as Denver can run the ball, Trevor Siemian is going to continue to play well. Keep in mind a key reason for the Bengals struggles against the run is the absence of Vontaze Burfict. He’s not eligible to return from his suspension until Week 4.
Coming into the season the Bengals looked to have one of the better offensive lines. So far that hasn’t been the case. Cincinnati has 103 combined rushing yards in their first two games. Andy Dalton has also been sacked 8 times, 7 coming in the opener against the Jets.
When you can’t run the football, it’s hard to have success against Denver’s defense. Not only do the Broncos have a great pass rush, but they are loaded with talent in the secondary.
It’s also worth noting Denver has thrived as an underdog under Gary Kubiak. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS in this spot, winning on average by a score of 26.0 to 20.0. At the same time, we see that the Bengals are just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 after playing 2 straight on the road.
Mike Anthony
Pittsburgh vs. Philadelphia
Play: Steelers -4
Pittsburgh has been excellent with these pressured conditions. They have been putting the ball in the endzone via airwaves on the best level so far on the year, and Roethlisberger really shows no signs of that changing vs the Eagles. Big Ben has been too strong with finding who ever he needs to for the Eagles to handle very well. Philadelphia has been playing much better than many projected, but they can still get complacent on offense. Not always enough motion, or plays that keep defenses guessing. Rookie QB Carson Wentz has been the heartbeat of this Philly team, and anyone playing them knows that. Some added pressure from the pass coverage of Pittsburgh will be the way this goes. Eagles are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record Pittsburgh wins by 17 here at the Linc.
Big Al
San Francisco vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle
Both of these teams come into this game with 1-1 records. The 49ers upset the Rams in their opener, 28-0, but were blown out by the defending NFC Champion Panthers, 46-27, last week. Meanwhile, Seattle’s a fortunate 1-1, as it barely got by a mediocre Miami team in Week 1, 12-0, as a double-digit favorite, and then lost to another mediocre team last week, when the Rams upset them, 9-3, as a 5.5-point dog. Thus, Seattle is 0-2 against the spread to start the season, but this lack of pointspread success is one of the reasons why I like them this week. Since 1980, unrested teams that failed to cover the spread as a favorite in Weeks 1 and 2 are 66% ATS in Week 3. And the Seahawks are 72-26 straight-up and 61-33-4 ATS at home since 2005, including 11-3 ATS off an upset loss. Finally, Seattle’s a dominant 53-25 ATS after scoring less than 20 points in back to back games, including 11-0 ATS their last 11.
Brandon Shively
Minnesota vs. Carolina
Pick: Minnesota
I am advising a play on the Vikings here on Sunday. When laying more than a touchdown in the NFL, I look for a team that will be motivated and focused. Last week was a kill spot for the Panthers and we cashed in with them as my Game of the Week. If you don’t know me, it is very rare to find me laying doubles in the NFL and to lay doubles last week with my Game of the Week says a lot to how strongly I felt about Carolina. We will happily take the win, but now look at fading the Panthers in this flat spot they find themselves in.
Shift focus to Week 3: The Panthers are satisfied having plowed over the 49ers and have a HUGE revenge game on deck vs the Falcons. Why is this such a big revenge game? BECAUSE Atlanta gave the Panthers their only regular season loss as they were 14-0 heading into that game on the verge of a perfect season.
Enter the Minnesota Vikings who are now 16-2 ATS their last 18 games (20-2 ATS if you include going 4-0 ATS this Preseason. The Vikings went 6-0 ATS as a road underdog last year and are in a good spot to pick up the cover here once again. With the injury to Adrian Peterson, the public is not interested in backing this profitable road dog which I understand, but I also prefer to back a dog that is not being backed heavily by the public. Sam Bradford doesn’t need to be a hero here. He just needs to manage the game and the Vikings defense will hold serve. I think we see a closer game than expected as the Panthers get caught looking ahead to what will be their ‘Revenger of the Year’ against the Falcons.
DAVE COKIN
VIKINGS AT PANTHERS
PLAY: VIKINGS +7
This Sunday’s NFL slate is a little on the short side in terms of featuring true heavyweight battles, but the Vikings-Panthers battle certainly qualifies on that count. Minnesota hits the road 2-0, while the defending NFL champs got back in the win column in a big way last Sunday after dropping their opener at Denver in very tough fashion.
The big story here is that Minnesota will have to get things done for the next several weeks without the services of running back Adrian Peterson. With QB Teddy Bridgewater already lost for the season, the Vikings have clearly absorbed a couple of major hits.
Fact is, this Minnesota offense is not in very good shape right now. In addition to Bridgwater and Peterson, they are also now minus left tackle Matt Kalil and the offensive line has been pretty shaky in the first two games. The Vikes are averaging less than two yards per carry and QB Sam Bradford was introduced to Green Bay defenders on a far too frequent up close and personal basis last week.
But the Minnesota defense is another story entirely. The Vikings are going to be a defense-first squad this season, and they look terrific on that side of the ball. There’s no question the stop unit will have to be sharp for the Vikes to have a chance at the upset today, but I think they’re up to the task.
Is Carolina back on track after smashing the 49ers? This team was a monster at home last season, and there put 46 on the scoreboard last Sunday in thumping San Francisco. But the Panthers were also very sloppy with four turnovers, and they were facing one of the weaker teams in the league in what I thought was a very favorable scheduling scenario. In other words, I’m not convinced this team is back to being a wrecking machine just yet.
I’m a Mike Zimmer believer, and while it’s not a great scheduling situation for the Vikings, I’m also not about to simply write this team off. I see the Vikes approaching this as a huge proving ground game as they’re a team with some very lofty goals this season. I don’t think Minnesota has enough to score the outright upset at Carolina. But I can certainly see them hanging tough with that dominating defense. If the offense avoids costly turnovers, we could end up with this being a fierce battle that gets decided late. I’ll take the touchdown with the Vikings for today’s free NFL play.
Bruce Marshall
Arizona -3.5
The next dismissal at Buffalo might be Rex Ryan after o.c. Greg Roman was thrown under the bus following Thursday's loss to the Jets. Firing coordinators after Game Two is usually not a positive, especially since it was Rex and his underachieving defense that perhaps deserved to be tossed over Niagara Falls after making Jet QB Ryan Fitzpatrick look like vintage Joe Namath last week. Now, Rex and twin brother Rob's disorganized unit will look like red meat for still-healthy Carson Palmer and his collection of big-play targets, who finally got on the same page last week vs. the Bucs. Big Red 8-2 vs. line last 10 on reg.-season road.
Ken Thomson
Dallas -6.5
I know most public players remember what they saw last and that influences their next play vs. that team, whether that be for or against that side. I'm not just taking Dallas because they beat the Skins on the road....that helped Prescott get a nice road win for confidence sake, I agree. I also agree that the Bears second half NO SHOW performance at home when they lost to the Eagles showed me no heart and no chemistry on this squad. I'll trust the BIG offensive line to protect Presott and also trust that Dak will take off when need me to make plays with his legs and be two-dimensional. Big Home win needed for HC Garrett. Bears may win 4 games this season if they get their act together!!