Brandon Lee
Lions vs. Vikings
Play: Lions +2½
Sam Bradford has been ruled out for the Vikings and I think Detroit should be favored here at home. The fact that the Vikings won last week with Keenum at home against the Bucs in a similar spot will have most looking to take Minnesota here.
What a lot of people are overlooking with Keenum and his huge game against Tampa Bay, is he was facing a Bucs defense that was decimated with injuries. Just about every key player for Tampa Bay’s defense was either out with an injury or suffered an injury in that game. I feel like that has a lot of people overlooking just how big a drop off it is from Bradford to Keenum.
Look at what the offense was able to do in Keenum’s first start at Pittsburgh back in Week 2. They managed just 9 points and 237 total yards. Keenum only threw for 167 yards on 20 of 37 passing. This Detroit defense doesn’t get a lot of respect, but I’ve really been impressed with them so far. They intercepted Matt Ryan three times and sacked him twice. The Week before they sacked Eli Manning 5 times and held the Giants to just 10 points. I think they make life miserable here for Keenum and I just don’t think the offense can do enough running the ball to get the win.
I also think Matthew Stafford doesn’t get the respect he deserves. He’s really been impressive through the first 3 games, completing 64.5% of his attempts with a 7-1 TD-INT ratio. Detroit is also having some success running the ball. They are currently 17th at 97.0 ypg. That might seem all that impressive and it’s not great, but the Lions were 30th in the NFL last year in rushing.
The underdog has cashed the majority of the tickets in this series, posting an 8-3-1 record against the spread in the last 12 meetings. Minnesota is also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 division games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 following a straight up win. Give me the Lions +2.5 and a little on the money line as well.
Mike Lundin
Steelers vs. Ravens
Play: Steelers -2½
The Baltimore Ravens forgot to bring their offense when they traveled to London, England to face the Jacksonville Jaguars last Sunday. Actually, they forgot to bring their defense as well and had to head back home a 44-7 loser after being outgained by 410 yards to 186. The Ravens can't possibly be as bad here the following week, but last week's transatlantic travel won't help and I don't think they'll be able to keep up with their AFC North rival Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.
Pittsburgh must be extremely disappointed with last week's performance as well after falling 23-17 in overtime to the Bears in Chicago as a 7-point favorite. The Steelers are 2-1 on the season despite RB Le'Veon Bell being off to a slow start, and QB Big Ben Roethlisberger has yet to show his best stuff as well. It's only a matter of time before they heat up though, and the Steelers have too many weapons for the Ravens to shut down.
Baltimore is dead last in the NFL in total offense, and Quarterback Joe Flacco is averaging just 5.3 yards per attempt through the first three contests and he completed only eight of 18 pass attempts for a career-worst 28 yards with two interceptions against the Jaguars. Pittsburgh is ranked third in the league in total defense and second against the pass, so I predict another tough game for Flacco. The Bears hurt Pittsburgh on the ground last week, but Baltimore has a much weaker running game than Chicago.
Marc Lyle
Bengals vs. Browns
Play: Bengals -3
The battle of two 0-3 teams but which one of these 2 is better? Under New Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor in week three Cincy came very close to beating a very good Green Bay team losing in OT. Cincy will also be getting back linebacker Vontaze Burfict from a 3 game suspension that will booster the Bengals Defense. Jaimie Collins in also questionable for Cleveland which will not help him against an offense that is finally getting on track.
Ray Monohan
Bengals vs. Browns
Play: Bengals -3
The Bengals and Browns Battle for Ohio and it’s Cincinnati who has the value here.
Both teams enter play 0-3 and have looked pretty bad in their opening games. However, the Bengals have a little momentum to carry here into this one.
They nearly took down Aaron Rodgers and company on the road last week and Andy Dalton and AJ Green seem to have built some steam when it comes to their connection. That spells a ton of a trouble for the Browns, who really don’t have an answer for stopping Green when these two teams meet.
The Browns have looked horrific on both sides of the ball thus far. Turnovers offensively and getting burned with the big play defensively has hurt them in every game.
This team isn’t built to keep up with the Bengals in this spot.
A couple trends to consider. CIN are 10-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record in their last 14 games. CLE are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Sean Higgs
Raiders vs. Broncos
Play: Broncos -3
So we will be backing the DENVER BRONCOS as our FREE PLAY here on Sunday. Forget about the Raiders laying an egg last week. That was to be expected. As I said on these pages cashing our Bills play, both AFC West teams would be not as focused on the east coast with this match-up on tap.
Broncos defense will be the difference maker this afternoon. And it is as simple as that. Trevor Siemian comfortable at home with 450 yards 6 TDs/ 2 INTs in wins over San Diego and Dallas. The entire team plays better here. 35-7 SU since 2012. Laying just a FG, we have to bite on the home faves. Raiders 2-8-1 ATS last 11 vs Denver.
Cappers Club
Jacksonville at New York
Play: Jacksonville -3
The New York Jets and the Jacksonville Jaguars face off on Sunday, and with the Jaguars only favored by three they have all kinds of value.
The Jacksonville Jaguars opened up a lot of eyes when they dominated the Ravens in London last week.
They played a near perfect game on both sides of the ball and that led to a 44-7 victory. Now I don't think it will be that big of blowout in this game but the Jaguars are the much better team and I think that will show in this game.
I expect Blake Bortles to have another good game, and the defense will be dominant on the way to a win and a cover.
Jimmy Boyd
Raiders vs. Broncos
Play: Under 46
I see some great value with the UNDER on the total in Sunday's AFC West clash between the Raiders and Broncos. I just think this number is a little high after seeing how poorly these two defenses played last week. Denver gave up 26 on the road against the Bills and the Raiders allowed 27 to the Redskins in a nationally televised game.
I certainly expect this Broncos defense to play much better this week at home. Not that they need any extra motivation when facing the Raiders, but last week's poor showing will only add more fuel to the fire. Denver's offense has looked good in spurts, mainly against Dallas, but I just don't see a whole lot of difference between this year's team and last year unit that ranked 27th in total offense and 22nd in scoring. If they are improved, it's only marginally.
Oakland defense isn't as good as it gets credit for, but I think it's good enough to keep the Broncos in check. They held them to 20 and 24 points in the two meetings last year and got more talent on that side of the ball in 2017.
UNDER is 12-3 in the Broncos last 15 after playing their previous game on the road, 7-1 in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning road record and 6-1 in their last 7 following a game where they didn't cover the spread. UNDER is 5-1 in the Raiders last 6 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 against division opponents.
Jack Jones
Steelers vs. Ravens
Play: Under 42
The Steelers/Ravens rivalry has been the best in the NFL this century. These teams couldn't hate each other any more than they do, and points are usually hard to come by in a hard-hitting slug fest. I've seen nothing from these teams thus far that leads me to believe it will be any different in their first meeting of 2017.
The Steelers aren't nearly as explosive offensively as many thought they'd be. They are only averaging 21.3 points, 302 yards per game and 5.2 per play against teams that give up 23 points, 328 yards per game and 5.6 per play. Big Ben has been shaky at best, and Le'Veon Bell hasn't been able to get going on the ground. The Steelers are averaging just 69 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry.
But the surprising part about the Steelers is that their defense has been lights out. They have made a lot of moves on this side of the ball to get back to the Steel Curtain days. They are giving up just 16.7 points, 259 yards per game and 4.5 per play against teams that average 19.4 points, 343 yards per game and 5.5 per play.
The Ravens have been a nightmare offensively. Joe Flacco is rusty as the passing offense is averaging just 121 yards per game and 4.7 per attempt. They are being held to 17 points, 264 yards per game and 4.5 per play as an offense. Don't expect them to be much better on this side of the ball any time soon.
But the Ravens opened up with a shutout win over Cincinnati, then held Cleveland to just 10 points. Their effort against the Jaguars was an aberration last week, and you can bet they will be looking to rebound defensively in this rivalry game. They are still giving up just 18 points per game after allowing 44 to the Jaguars in London last week.
The UNDER is 21-7 in Steelers last 28 road games. The UNDER is 25-10-1 in Steelers last 36 against division opponents. The UNDER is 15-3 in Steelers last 18 games in the first half of the season. The UNDER is 10-4 in Ravens last 14 home games. The UNDER is 6-1 in Ravens last seven against AFC North foes. The UNDER is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.
Marc Lawrence
Rams vs. Cowboys
Play: Rams +6½
Edges - Rams: 3-0 SUATS in first underdog role last three seasons… Cowboys: 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS following Monday nights; and 0-7 ATS in Game Four of the season versus .500 or greater opponents… With the Cowboys looking dead ahead to a playoff revenge game with the Packers, we recommend a 1* play on the Rams.
Andre Ramirez
Detroit vs. Minnesota
Play: Minnesota -1½
The Vikings gained only 237 yards in a 26-9 loss at Pittsburgh in Week 2, but it is safe to say things of turned around. Even if Bradford cannot go, Keenum is playing with confidence now so the home team should feel good about its offense. As for Detroit, last weekend’s thriller is a tough one from which to recover. The Lions are 2-6 ATS in their last eight overall, 2-6 ATS in their last eight against the NFC, 2-6 ATS in their last eight on fieldturf, 4-11 ATS in their last 15 against the NFC North, 0-5 ATS in their last five against winning opponents, and 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 road games against the Vikings. Minnesota is 40-18 ATS in its last 58 overall, 24-7 ATS in its last 31 at home, 13-6 ATS in its last 19 against winning opponents, and 9-0 ATS in its last nine at home against opponents with winning road records.
Michael Alexander
Indianapolis at Seattle
Play: Seattle -13
The Seahawks have never been the same, after blowing the Super Bowl, with the single worst play calling ever. That being the case, the Colts may have a legitimate shot at the upset here. They sure would, with a healthy Luck. But that's not the case. Indianapolis lost its last road game by 32½ points, and Seattle's Wilson is in off a 373 yard, 4 touchdown 0 interception game. This one will be over early.
Chase Diamond
Jaguars vs. Jets
Play: Jets +3½
This game features the 2-1 Jags at the 1-2 Jets. Jets got a little taste of winning and I think that really motivates this team. Jags are coming back from London still on the road and have to play a Jets team that has not had to travel at all. Again love the plus points with the home team. Public after seeing the way the Jags won are all over them this week as 74% are backing them and yet this line has held tight at 3 in most spots 3.5 if you can get lucky.
Chip Chirimbes
Saints vs. Dolphins
Play: Dolphins +3
Here it is Week 4 in the NFL and the Dolphins have yet to play a home game and this is their fifth consecutive road game. After surprising most of the AFC with a win at San Diego Miami was totally shut down in New York against the Jets as Jay Cutler was thing about the broadcast booth. New Orleans put up a win 34-13 win over Carolina but they still are a team in trouble as they don't stop anybody on defense.
Mike Anthony
Detroit vs. Minnesota
Play: Minnesota -2
Minnesota needs to sense the moment and know when it's time to go non-stop and push it into the next gear. Their highly ranked offense is sitting at #2 in yards, for a reason. The WR crew and much improved Oline keep this team plugging along regardless of teams that they have come up on so far. The QBs have played very well for Minnesota - especially last game - but Minnesota absolutely needs to keep more of the same aggressive game plan at the very least here vs Detroit. If their left tackle, Greg Robinson, does not get better stopping bull rushes, they have no chance of making this game close, to quite honest. Detroit has been weak on the defensive side of the ball, far too many times over the last 3 games. Minnesota DE Everson Griffen has 4 sacks so far, for a reason - Robinson will get blown off the field - if Detroit allows Griffen to dominate the edge, they are in serious trouble. Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC Minnesota another one here at home.
Rob Vinciletti
Philadelphia vs. Los Angeles
Play: Los Angeles -2
The Chargers should bounce back here after a hone loss to KC. In fact home favorites with a total of 42 or more are perfect off a home dog loss vs an opponent like Philadelphia that come in off a division home favored win. These home teams win on average by 11 points. The Eagles are 1-6 ats as a dog of late and 0-4 vs team who had no turnovers in their last game. The Chargers have won all 3 meetings here since 1989 and should get their first win here today.