Joey Juice
As good as Jameis Winston is, he only was able to get 14 points up against a non-existent NE defense last week. The Cardinals have not been scoring at all either. When you have 2 teams who can't score, under is usually a safe assumption.
A look inside the numbers shows a distinct advantage for the Under bettors as the Under is 4-0 last 4 in the series.
Long gone are the days that Carson Palmer worries you. This will look like a baseball score at halftime.
Bet the under.
4* TAMPA BAY-ARIZONA UNDER
Brandon Lee
Steelers vs. Chiefs
Play:Steelers +4½
I would have to take the points with Pittsburgh in this one. The fact that Kansas City has started out 5-0 ATS and are the talk of the NFL right now, the public is lining up to take them. This line has been inflated because of that and thus the value here is with the Steelers.
This is also an ideal spot to jump on the Steelers after that embarrassing loss to Jacksonville. Pittsburgh will be 100% locked in for this contest and have owned this series when Roethlisberger has been healthy. In fact, the Steelers are a perfect 6-0 against the Chiefs when Roethlisberger starts and finishes a game.
Both of the meetings last year were pretty lopsided, even though the playoff game was decided by just a few points. The Steelers were up 36-0 in the regular season meeting before the Chiefs added a couple garbage touchdowns late. In the postseason meeting, the Chiefs somehow managed to hold the Steelers to 6 field goals, or that would have been a lot uglier final score.
The biggest thing here is we don’t even need Pittsburgh to win the game outright. Chances are this is a back and forth game that could go either way in the 4th quarter. I’d much rather take my chances that the Steelers win outright or keep it with 4 points, than bank on KC winning by 5 or more.
Pittsburgh is 13-6 ATS in their last 19 following a loss, an impressive 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 road games against a team with a winning home record and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 road games against a team that is allowing 4.5 or more yards/carry against the run.
John Martin
Dolphins vs. Falcons
Play: Falcons -12½
The Atlanta Falcons are the real deal again this season. They are 2nd in the NFL in yards per play on offense, and 6th in yards per play on defense. They are 1st in net yards per play, outgaining teams by 1.2 yards per play on the season. Those are the most important stats in the NFL to tell you about how good a team really is. Now the Falcons are coming off a bye week and hungry for a win after a fluke loss to the Bills going into the bye. The Dolphins are a mess right now, and if not for Matt Cassell starting for the Titans last week, and a missed FG by the Chargers, they would be 0-4. They lost 20-0 to the Saints in London and 20-6 to the Jets after scoring a TD on the final play of the game. I don't see how they stay within two touchdowns of Atlanta in this game.
Marc Lawrence
Bears vs. Ravens
Play: Bears +7
Edges - Bears: 7-1 ATS away after facing the Vikings; and 5-1 ATS away versus avenging AFC foes… Ravens: 0-6 ATS home between away games; and 0-5 ATS in its last five NFC contests… With the Bears owning the better offense and the better defense in this contest, we recommend a 1* play on Chicago.
ASA
49ers vs. Redskins
Play: 49ers +11
San Fran is 0-5 on the season but they are a very competitive 0-5 (3-2 ATS). Throw out their 23-3 loss to open the season vs Carolina and this Niner team has lost their other 4 games by a combined 11 points. They are not getting dominated on the stat sheet either as they are getting outgained by just 0.3 YPP and haven’t been outgained in a game by more than 70 yards this season. The Niner defense has held 4 of their 5 opponents to 23 points or less in regulation and if they can duplicate those numbers, it will make it very tough to cover this high pointspread. Washington is in a spot they simply are not used to being in. They have not been a double digit favorite since the 2009 season. Going back to 1993, the Redskins have been a favorite of 10 or more only 10 times and they are just 1-9 ATS in those games. They have lost outright in 6 of those 10 games. Too many points here. We like San Fran to keep it close.
Michael Alexander
Chargers vs. Raiders
Play: Chargers +3½
The Chargers snapped their 9-game losing streak, thanks to 3 touchdown passes from Rivers, and as bad as things are for L.A., he always seems to play well here. Even if they don't win, it's always close (with exception of a 10-point loss in 2013). Oakland QB, Carr will be out for another 1-5 weeks. Manuel last week was 13-of-26 for 159 yards (1 TD & no interceptions). But only 15 first downs & 245 yards just isn't going to make it, especially when compared to last year's Raider run. Just 12.3 points per game for the Raiders in their last 3 games. The visitor is 23-8 ATS in Charger games.
Chip Chirimbes
New York at New England
Play: New England -9
The Jets are 3-2 on the season and have already won more games then the New York 'scribes' predicted. New England is 3-2 as well but have been totally unimpressive so far going 1-4 against the 'opening' number and will the Jets seriously here. The Patriots defense has been among the worst in the NFL but now up against an offense like the grounded Jets they will prevail.
Rob Vinciletti
Cleveland vs. Houston
Play: Cleveland +10
The Browns should get the cover here and teams who have not won in game 6 or later taking this many points have covered over 75% over the last 35 years. Another fine system shows that non division road dogs from +7 to +10 are 47-14 to the spread if both teams are off non divisional losses. Houston is laying 10 despite being under .500. These two teams are very close yardage wise and while the Texans may get the win, simulation models show the Browns are a clear cut choice to cover the spread.
The Prop Specialists
Detroit vs. New Orleans
Pick: Detroit 1st Half
Our 1H sides model shows DET +1.5 as the fair first half line, a big difference with DET +3 available in the market.
We just can't pull the trigger here on a paid play as we always have accompanying signals coming from ATS probablistic classifiers: they don't generate fair lines like the base model, but generate probabilities of 1H ATS cover. Unless all the ducks align between all the models, there is no higher value play.
Unfortunately DET +3 doesn't meet our stringent requirements because our ATS models give out no signal to accompany the fair line base rating. But given the large difference between our 1H fair line model and the market, DET +3 for 3* is a play.
DAVE COKIN
BEARS AT RAVENS
PLAY: BEARS +6.5
I see this matchup being highly competitive. The Ravens are bit overrated as far as this line is concerned. They’re back home off a good win at Oakland, but I see the right price in this game being Ravens -5, so a bit of value on the Bears.
This Chicago team is playing with a lot of heart and while they have just the one win against the Steelers, it’s not hard to make a good case they could be a +.500 team through the season’s first five weeks. The Bears were a dropped pass away from beating Atlanta, and I thought they were simply on the wrong side of a coin flip game last week against the Vikings.
Mitch Trubisky is now the starting QB for Chicago, and moving him atop the depth chart made perfect sense to most observers, myself included. He’ll make some rookie mistakes, no doubt. But Trubisky simply makes the team more capable offensively overall.
The one holdup for me here is that this is Trubisky’s first road start and I am reluctant to back took signal callers in this scenario. But if you’re a value seeker when it comes to the NFL, I would be looking to side with the Bears on this game.
Tommy Brunson
My comp play for Sunday is the Dolphins plus the boatload of points to stay inside of the roomy impost in the roomy Mercedes Benz Dome against the Atlanta Falcons.
Atlanta was off last week, and just at the right time, as the Dirty Birds injury list was beginning to pile up. Not only that, but the turnovers are also piling up for the defending NFC Champions who simply have not been convincing enough for me to get interested in laying nearly 2 full scores today.
Miami is not even close to last year's playoff form, and Jay Cutler perhaps should have stayed retired, but the fact of the matter is the 'Fins are 5-2 against the spread their last 7 on the road, while the Falcs are just 5-14 against the spread their last 19 as the home favorite.
You know the old saying..."on any given Sunday..." Yes, Atlanta will get the much-needed win, but since they seem hell-bent on playing 'em close this year, mark me down for a play on Miami plus the points.
3* MIAMI
Eric Schroeder
My free play is on the New Orleans Saints minus the points against the Detroit Lions. I've heard many arguments this week on this game, and have come to the conclusion that this may be the biggest trap on the entire card.
The Lions have the beaten the Saints three straight times, yes. And once again, New Orleans has a horrendous defense. But the problem is I do not think Detroit is talented enough to go into New Orleans and stick with Saints QB Drew Brees and company.
The Saints have the seventh-best offense in the league, led by the fourth-best passing game. Detroit will try to counter with the 27th-ranked pass defense, and match that with the 29th-ranked offense.
Sorry, but I don't see it.
The Saints are the third team since 1933 with no turnovers in its first four regular-season games, while Brees has 300 or more yards passing in each of six career games against these Lions.
I'll lay the chalk at home with New Orleans for this one.
3* SAINTS
Brad Diamond
Bears vs. Ravens
Play: Bears +7
Still think Camden Yards is a courteous place to play baseball, let along any other sport. Just a side note....First off, today we find an interesting situation overall, as the Ravens and Bears have not played since 2013 with Chicago winning at home 23-20. Currently, Baltimore brings home a 30-17 road win over Oakland (without QB Carr). In contrast, Chicago could be tied to deficit thinking after collapsing at home against Minnesota on Thursday night 20-17. Some critical notes to swallow initially is the fact, the Bears are 0-10 SU on the L10 road outings, while the upstart Ravens illustrate a majestic 11-0 SU record at home when challenging a rookie QB (Trubisky) since Harbaugh has been the head coach. In his initial start, Chicago rookie QB Trubisky last week (12-25) threw for just 128 yards with a TD and a pick. Considering the Bears ran a conservative offense against Minnesota, they came close to pulling out a victory. Chicago's defense which has been inconsistent played well holding the Vikings to just 141 passing yards, surrendering 5.0 yards per carry on the ground but, the majority of the elongated runs were in excessive down and distance situations. On the other hand, veteran QB Joe Flacco (love-hate relationship in Grab Town) has been echoed by the passer generating at least one INT game for the most part. The Ravens have averaged only 8 points a game L2 but, produced 22 points a game their initial battles this season. Remember Big Joe (71.0 QBR) is coming off back surgery playing now into the regular season but, threw well against Oakland (19-26) gaining 222 yards through the air. Still, the Ravens surprisingly are averaging just 288 yards a game on offense in 2017 which ranks #28 overall in the NFL. The defense is allowing 328 yards per game (#16). One of the Ravens key issues is the inconsistency of snapper Whitehair who actually played tackle last year at Kansas State. This is critical from the turnover perspective, considering Baltimore is nicked up on both sides of the ball. Pay close attention to the late injury reports for the status of nose tackle Williams (Baltimore), if he is out the Bears have a solid chance of controlling the tempo of this game with their rushing attack. Critical, Chicago can't fall behind early as they did versus Tampa Bay and Green Bay on the road. If the game is close in the 4th quarter, don't be surprised by a Chicago SU win. The Bears are 8-3 ATS off after a SU loss and 5-1 ATS versus .500+ units, while the Ravens don't support their backers in October with a horrid 5-16-1 ATS mark.
Mike Lundin
49ers vs. Redskins
Play: Over 45½
The 2-2 Washington Redskins will host the still winless San Francisco 49ers (0-5) at FedEx Field Sunday afternoon. I think we'll see a high-scoring affair going over the total.
The Niners are coming off back-to-back overtime defeats, and their defense has been forced to spend a lot of time on the field. They gave up a total of 447 yards in last week's 26-23 loss at Indianapolis and over is 9-2 in 49ers last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
San Francisco ranks 28th in the NFL giving up 366.4 yards of total offense per contest and here the team has to travel across the country to take on a potent Redskins offense led by Kirk Cousins. The Redskins QB has passed for 1,004 yards and seven touchdowns against just one interception on the season, and his 107.6 quarterback rating is fourth-best in the league.
I think the visitors D will be worn down quite easily, but it's worth noting that the Niners offense has looked better in over the last three games and QB Brian Hoyer was 29-of-46 passing for 353 yards and two TDs with no INTs last week.
Vic Duke
Steelers vs. Chiefs
Play:Steelers +4½
Everything going right for the Chiefs while the Steelers appear to be in a state of disarray. But hold everything. Just when you think Roethlisberger is down and out after being sacked 10 times and throwing 5 interceptions, you better take a closer look. Big Ben sports a 13/3 TD/INT in 6 regular season games vs KC. And remember what happened last season when KC went into Pittsburgh and got waxed 43-14. On top of that, Pittsburgh knocked KC out in the playoffs 18-16 in Arrowhead! KC has their weaknesses. Without Berry (Achilles), the Chiefs' secondary has been lit up. Don't let him fool you, Roethlisberger still has some juice and a host of dangerous weapons to go to. Steelers' pass defense (#1) can keep the Chiefs electrifying weapons from tearing it up. And keep in mind that Steelers' HC Tomlin is 8-1 ATS in October off a SU loss vs an opponent with double revenge! He's also 10-2 ATS as a road dog vs an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Steelers dangerous off a loss and we'll take the value here with the points.