John Martin
Reds vs. Braves
Play: Reds -109
Luis Castillo is going to be a future star in this league. He has posted a 3.39 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 66 K's in 66 1/3 innings across 11 starts this season for the Reds. He is 2-2 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in six road starts. Castillo will be backed up by a Cincinnati offense that has scored a total of 35 runs in its past four games. The Braves will go with Sean Newcomb, who is 1-7 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 12 starts, including 0-6 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in seven home starts. Given that the Reds have big edges on the mound and at the plate today, this is a very generous price for them.
Dave Price
Athletics vs. Astros
Play: Astros -1½
The Houston Astros are starting to get healthy, which is why they are playing much better baseball of late. They have won 4 of their last 5 and once again have a big advantage on the mound over the A's today. Brad Peacock is 7-1 with a 3.73 ERA in 14 starts for the Astros with 95 K's in 72 1/3 innings. Peacock has faced the A's twice this season, going 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA while allowing just 2 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings with 15 K's. Jharel Cotton gave up 6 runs and 11 base runners in 4 1/3 innings in a 4-9 loss at Houston in his only start against the Astros this season on April 28th. Cotton is 5-10 with a 5.92 ERA in 18 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 7.94 ERA in his last 3 outings. The Astros are 8-1 in Peacock's last 9 starts.
Eric Schroeder
My free play is on the Angels of Anaheim, over the Baltimore Orioles, and I want you to list the starting pitchers: Parker Bridwell and Chris Tillman.
There is no line on this one yet, but I suspect the Angels will be the chalk. Doesn't matter, just play the Halos.
Bridwell has been solid his past two starts, allowing a combined two runs over 13 innings. The right-hander recorded one of his best starts of the year when he faced these same Orioles on Aug. 8, and allowed just one run over seven innings with no walks.
Meanwhile, Tillman returns to the rotation after a brief demotion to the bullpen. In his last start, back on Aug. 3, he survived just two innings. The right-hander's return to starting simply allows the Orioles to rest some of their rotation down the stretch. He won't last long.
All Angels.
1* ANGELS
Rocketman
Atlanta @ Pittsburgh
Play: Atlanta -3
The Atlanta Falcons travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers on Sunday afternoon. Atlanta is 0-1 SU so far this preseason while Pittsburgh comes in with a 1-0 SU record. Pittsburgh is 1-6 SU and ATS last 3 years when playing on grass. Atlanta is 6-1 ATS last 7 games as road favorites in preseason action. I like the Falcons QB rotation here. Feel like they are definitely better overall in that area. We'll recommend a small play on Atlanta today!
RICKY TRAN
Dodgers vs. Tigers
Play: Under 9½
Maeda is 5-0 L6 and surrendered one or no earned runs in five of those turns. In his last 5 games over a 27 inning span, he has a 1.98 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP while striking out 27 batters. Maeda is seeing Detroit for the first time in his career and is 4-2 with a 3.25 ERA in seven interleague starts.
Verlander recently had a string of seven straight starts yielding three or fewer earned runs. Over his last 3 outings he owns 24 strikeouts in 21 innings. Verlander is 29-5 with a 2.94 ERA in 41 career interleague starts, including a win in his lone previous appearance against Los Angeles.
Under is 8-2 in Dodgers last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 17-8-2 in Verlander's last 27 home starts.
8.5 mph wind coming in from right field all game.
BRIAN HAY
Nationals vs. Padres
Play: Nationals -106
The Washington Nationals will trot Gio Gonzalez out to the hill to face San Diego. Gonzalez has a 11-5 record and a 2.49 ERA this year. San Diego will counter with Dinelson Lamet. He has a 7-4 record and a 4.78 ERA so far this season. The Nationals are 7-2 in their last nine Sunday games and 42-20 in their last 62 during game four of a series. Washington is also 4-0 in Gonzalez’s last four starts and 6-2 in Gonzalez’s last eight road starts. San Diego is 14-40 in their last 54 Sunday games. Gonzalez has been great over his last four starts, giving up just three earned on 15 hits in the span of 28.0 innings for a 3-0 mark. The Nationals offense will be key here today. We are getting the better pitcher and team at a great price.
Nelly
Cardinals vs. Pirates
Play: Cardinals -101
Ivan Nova had an excellent first half of the season and while his season ERA is still strong at 3.77 he is 0-4 in his last five starts with a 6.04 ERA. His FIP is about a half run higher than his ERA on the season and he holds an unimposing 5.7 K/9 on the season. Nova has been a stronger pitcher at home and this smaller venue isn’t likely to be favorable for his high contact tendencies while left-handed batters are hitting .297 against him and the Cardinals beat him earlier this season. Mike Leake was an early season overachiever but the results have been going the other direction of late with Leake pitching well but having little to show for it. He had great misfortune in his last start with a tough result in Boston but before that he had posted a 10-start run with a 4.02 ERA with four or fewer earned runs in each outing. He has two decent outings vs. Pittsburgh since late June in a pair of no decisions and there isn’t a great difference between his home and road splits as the veteran should adjust to Williamsport just fine. The Cardinals have been one of the league’s hottest teams in the last two weeks with a .936 team OPS in the past 12 games, scoring a whopping 7.3 runs per game. Pittsburgh in contrast has a .725 team OPS in that span with 4.4 runs per game and on the season the Pirates have a .712 team OPS vs. right-handers.
Carmine Bianco
Fiorentina at Inter Milan
Play: Inter Milan -1
Inter after a so-so season last year finally made the managerial change and it's one I think will help them with a much better season and a top 4 spot. Manager Spalletti made the switch over from Roma and has this Inter side playing a quicker pace and direct type of game. It's similar to what made Roma successful the past couple of seasons. The same can't be said for Fiorentina who may be in for a midtable finish this season after a not so impressive transfer offseason which some some of their quality talent leave.
Bob Balfe
Falcons -3
Big Ben is still sidelined for Pittsburgh and Landy Jones is nursing an abdominal injury. Atlanta has a huge edge today with the QB’s and can actually run their normal offense. The Steelers are very limited and it would be smart not to run out their starting offensive line unit in front of a third string quarterback. The Falcons are favored for a reason here.
Nationals -105
We have two pretty good pitchers on the mound today, but at even money we will go with Washington over the lack of runs batted in when San Diego faces left handed pitching. This is a team that is very limited in their offense so all it takes is one big inning by Washington and it’s impossible for them to come back.
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. CHARGERS -4 over New Orleans
The L.A. Chargers may be tough to get used to saying but here they are in Los Angeles and playing at StubHub Stadium for the next three years. Man, there are a lot of moving parts here so let’s get the Saints out of the way first before we discuss the Chargers.
New Orleans is coached by Sean Payton, who has 47 preseason games under his belt and could not care less about this “cash-grab” season. The Saints went 0-4 in the preseason in 2015, 0-4 in 2016 and they are 0-1 this season so let’s make that a nine-game losing streak in the preseason for the Saints. Reports out of practice this week all said that the Saints looked “very sluggish”, which is a reflection of Sean Payton’s disdain for preseason football. The Saints arrived at StubHub Center in Carson California early in the week and the two teams have scrimmaged or played against one another during practice this past week. The Saints will likely play with far less intensity here because their goal is to stay healthy. Marshon Lattimore, the #11 overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft returned to full action for the first time in quite a while during the New Orleans Saints’ joint practice sessions with the Chargers and Sean Payton said he anticipates Lattimore receiving his first dose of game action in Sunday’s preseason game. Translation: He’ll be in there for one series and the same can be said for Ryan Ramczyk, the Saints’ second first-round pick from this year’s crop. Payton has nothing to prove or nothing to gain here and will play the league required minimum of first team players. The Chargers focus figures to be much more intense.
San Diego, oops, Los Angeles was whacked last week in their preseason opener at StubHub by the Seattle Seahawks, 48-17. However, that was against Pete Carroll, who treats the preseason like the Super Bowl. Dude loves to win more than any human on Earth and will do whatever it takes to do so regardless of importance. He’ll also run up the score. San Diego’s first unit easily marched down field on their first possession and scored a TD on Seattle’s first unit. Pete Carroll didn’t like that and as soon as San Diego’s first units on offense and defense came out with a 14-10 lead, Carroll went to work with a 24-3 second quarter.
The Chargers are now 0-1 in the preseason. They have a new NFL Head Coach in Anthony Lynn, who Philip Rivers has spent a ton of time with over the off-season going over every detail and player. Lynn joins the Chargers after serving as the Buffalo Bills Assistant Head Coach and Running Backs Coach in 2015-16. Lynn became the interim head coach on December 27, 2016, after Rex Ryan was fired and was also interviewed for the Jets head coaching job after Ryan was fired there. He’s paid his dues and obviously wants to establish himself by winning a couple of games in the preseason before the regular season gets underway. No new coach wants to start his career off with an 0-4 record. Said Lynn, “I want to play smart, physical football. I want to be explosive down the field... We're going to play a little bit faster and see if we can put a little pressure on the defense. Just execute."
There are more dynamics in play here too. This region is not sports hungry. Aside from the Dodgers tearing it up and selling out every game, you have the Rams, the UCLA Bruins and many other outlets that sports fans can spend their entertainment dollar on. The Chargers are competing for that and losing will not do the trick. StubHub Stadium only seats 21,000 fans and speculation is that if they are a weak team, you’ll be able to buy tickets on the StubHub website for 20 cents on the dollar. Winning therefore is crucial or the team will be playing in a small empty stadium and that’s not good for the NFL. Roger Goddell knows it and it would surprise us not if the Chargers got some favorable calls here. After getting whacked by Seattle, losing again to the Saints would not be good for Chargers football in this region. We’re trusting Philip Rivers and Anthony Lynn to get it done here and we’re also trusting Sean Payton to fully cooperate. This game lines up perfectly for the Chargers to win over some fans in this region to get behind their new team and support the process. This is an important game for the Bolts while it means absolutely zilch to the visitor. We’ll play it accordingly.
SPORTS WAGERS
CHICAGO -1½ +107 over Toronto
Kyle Hendricks’ brilliant effort last year benefited from elite hit % and strand % fortune but first-pitch strike rate and his swing and miss stuff underscore his command and ability to induce swings/misses. MLB-best defense helped, too, but xERA is the reality check. Dallas Keuchel showed volatility of contact-based approach even with plus skills. It would have been unreasonable to expect another year out of Hendricks like he had last year. However, he still brings a skill supported 3.45 ERA into this game. Over his last 27 frames, Hendricks has struck out 24 batters. He’s constantly low in the zone which has resulted in one of the lowest fly-ball rates (27%) in the game. Toronto has nothing but trouble against crafty righties and Hendricks fits the bill.
Then there’s good ol’ Marco Estrada. Estrada had been living right with some very low hit rates for three consecutive starts until his last outing when the Rays peppered him for 10 hits and six earned runs over 4.1 innings. In general, Estrada’s support numbers have not/never been strong and are getting worse. His fly-balls are up (and over the fence) and strikeout indicators (and velocity) are down. Estrada’s vile batted ball profile of 24% grounders and 55% fly-balls are not likely to play well at Wrigley against a surging Cubs’ offense which has scored 6.1 runs per game on the strength of an .855 OPS this month. Estrada is paying us back with interest so the fade will continue here.
Milwaukee -1½ +200 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
20-35 + 19.15 units
SAN DIEGO +101 over Washington
Dinelson Lamet brings his 4.78 ERA after 14 starts into this one and he’s not someone you'd think would be on a list of the most skilled young starters in the game. While there is no such official list, we’ve made our own and Lamet is near the top becaause his skills confirm that he's been a much better pitcher than he shows on the surface. With a BB/K split of 29/92 in 75 innings (11.9 K’s/9) his 14% swing and miss rate backs up his excellent strikeout rate. Lamet is now getting ahead of hitters at a higher clip than earlier and we’re attributing that to his growing confidence that he can trust his stuff at this level and even dominate. With an xERA of 2.71 since the beginning of July 7, Lamet has been outstanding but he’s not even the target today.
Well, this is an interesting line, no? The first place Nationals were a -190 favorite on Friday and they were a -163 favorite yesterday. Today, with Gio Gonzalez starting with his 2.42 ERA, backing the Nationals will only cost a fraction of that price and we’re pretty sure a lot of this market will bite at the opportunity. Don’t be one of them because the line says that the Padres are the prudent choice. Gonzalez has one of MLB’s best ERA’s, he plays for a top team and he’s up against a relatively unknown pitcher that is starting for one of MLB’s worst teams. Again, the Nationals look like a gift here but be forewarned that when it looks too good to be true……
Gonzalez is coming off a six-inning, two-hit, zero runs gem against the Angels. He’s 11-5 with a 2.42 ERA and a BB/K split of 61/142 over 155 frames. On the surface, he looks like a gem but underneath is where we find plenty of holes. Gonzalez’s swing and miss rate in that last start against the Angels was 1%. His overall swing and miss rate is 9% but it is just 7% over his last eight starts. His velocity is also down from 90.1 MPH in May and June to 89.1 in July and August. Gonzalez has the second highest strand rate in MLB at 85.7%. He also has one of the lowest BABIP at .241. To give you an idea of how fortunate those marks are, consider that Danny Salazar’s and Rick Porcello’s BABIP are both .332. As for strand rates, consider that Gonzalez’s LOB% is 16 percentage points higher than the average strand percentage of the other 28 starters today. Gio Gonzalez is not close to being as good as his shiny ERA suggests so put him high on your fade list for the rest of the year and into the playoffs. His charmed life is about to blow up and the line today strongly suggests it starts here. So does his 4.66 xERA.
TONY STOFFO
Yankees vs. Red Sox
Play: Yankees -104
The Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed and 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
The Red Sox are 2-7 in Porcello's last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record and 1-7 in Porcello's last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
TJ PEMBERTON
Reds vs. Braves
Play: Reds -117
The Cincinnati Reds have won three straight games and look to complete a three game sweep in Atlanta today. The Reds have outscored the Braves 16-11 in this series and have the momentum. Luis Castillo will climb the hill for the Reds on Sunday. Castillo is 2-5 on the season with 66.1 innings pitched. Castillo carries a 3.39 ERA with 66 strikeouts and 28 walks. Castillo pitched 6 innings in his last start allowing no earned runs on two hits. The Cincinnati Reds average 4.7 runs per game which ranks 14th in the MLB. Sean Newcomb will make the start for the Braves on Sunday. Newcomb is 1-7 on the season with 64.2 innings pitched. Newcomb carries a 4.45 ERA with 69 strikeouts and 27 walks. Newcomb pitched 6 innings in his last start allowing three earned runs on five hits. The Atlanta Braves have not won a home game in their last four when Newcomb starts.
Chris Jordan
My free winner for Sunday is on the Tampa Bay Rays, over the Seattle Mariners, and I want you to list the starting pitchers: Blake Snell over Yovani Gallardo.
Seattle's Gallardo has struggled lately, and this is a bad time for him to trot out to the mound on the road. The 31-year-old right-hander is 0-1 with a 9.45 ERA over his past three starts and steps to the rubber after lasting just four innings with eight runs and two home runs in his last outing against the Baltimore Orioles. Even further, he is 3-2 with a 4.71 ERA in seven career starts against the Rays.
Meanwhile, Snell labored through six innings his last time out and, despite allowing four earned runs, manager Kevin Cash had nothing but positive things to say, as he felt it may have been the left-hander's best start of the season. Snell showed a keen sense of durability, and displayed an ability to push through the last inning when his team needed it.
Snell feeds off that and gets the win today.
2* RAYS
Brad Wilton
Comp play winner for Sunday is the Yankees and the Red Sox to land Under the total.
This series concludes today with Sonny Gray and Rick Porcello getting the call and heading to the hill.
Gray has pitched well since joining the Yankees, as he makes his 4th start for the Pinstripers. Over his last 9 starts, he stands at 5-4 with an ERA of just 1.88.
He has allowed 9 runs, but just 6 of them earned since coming over to the Yankees, and I can see him giving the Boston batters fits this afternoon at Fenway Park.
The Under has connected in 3 of his last 4 starts, and 6 of his last 9 starts overall.
Porcello will be in charge of keeping the Yanks offense in check, and he has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 6 of his last 8 starts this season.
The Under is 14-6-1 for New York in their last 21 road games, and the series Under at Fenway Park is now 6-2-1 after last night's 4-3 final over the last 9 times these rivals have played one another.
Gray and Porcello to set the tone with a low-scoring game today.
4* N.Y. YANKEES-BOSTON UNDER