Wunderdog
Central Michigan @ Boston College
Pick: Central Michigan +8
The Boston College Eagles were at one time one of the most consistent teams in the country. They managed to make their way to a Bowl game 12 straight years, but since then and lately, and since moving to the ACC, things just have not been the same. This will likely be the eighth straight year that BC wins no more than seven games, entering this contest at a wobbly 1-3. The Eagles struggled in their opener vs. Northern Illinois by winning a squeaker 23-20. They have not won since, and the issues that have plagued this team in recent years, the offense, continues to be problematic in 2017, as BC has averaged a woeful 15 ppg. It is tough looking at laying over a TD on a team that scores 15 points per game. Central Michigan averages 26.5 ppg, and won't likely get there, but they have proven they can move the ball enough to stick around. Make the play on Central Michigan.
Dr Bob
Clemson (-7) 30 VIRGINIA TECH 16
Virginia Tech is not as good as their 40-10 average score reflects, as the Hokies have actually been just average offensively and not particularly good on defense after factoring in their strength of schedule. Virginia Tech has averaged 6.5 yards per play, which is good until you consider that they’ve faced 4 teams that haven’t been good defensively and that would combine to allow 6.4 yppl to an average offensive team. The Hokies are a terrible running team (4.7 yards per rushing play if you exclude the 97 yards on 9 runs by their backup quarterback – against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and as good as quarterback Josh Jackson has been (9.2 yppp against teams that would allow 7.7 yppp to an average QB) it is very unlikely that he’ll have success against a Clemson pass defense that’s allowed just 3.6 yppp to quarterbacks that would average 6.8 yppp against an average defense. Jackson simply won’t have the time to sit back and look downfield, which is something he’s had a lot of success doing (15.0 yards per completion). Clemson is averaging 4.3 sacks per game and allowing only 48.5% completions and 10.8 yards per completion and they held Auburn quarterback Jarrett Stidham to 0.2 yards per pass play while sacking him 11 times. Heisman winner Lamar Jackson had a bit more success with 6.3 yppp but Jackson would average 8.5 yppp against an average defensive team. Clemson’s pass defense is the best in the nation and there is no way that the Hokies will be able to run against the Tigers, who have only allowed 3.6 yards per rushing play. Clemson’s defense is just too good for a one-dimensional offense to beat consistently.
Virginia Tech’s defense looks pretty good based on their 10.3 points allowed per game but the 4.8 yppl that the Hokies have allowed have come against teams that would combine to average just 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team so that unit is really just 0.4 yppl better than average, which is not particularly impressive and far from how good they are perceived to be. Clemson’s offense, meanwhile, has averaged 290 rushing yards and 222 pass yards per game at 6.7 yprp and 6.7 yppp (and obviously 6.7 yards per play) while facing teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. The Tigers have faced 3 better than average defensive teams in Auburn, who has an elite defense, and Louisville and Boston College and the offense averaged 6.0 yppl in those 3 games and is projected to average 6.2 yppl in this game with success on the ground (6.0 yprp projected) and through the air (6.7 yppp).
Virginia Tech has faced 3 bad teams and the Hokies were outgained 469 yards at 6.5 yppl to 598 yards at 6.8 yppl by West Virginia – the only better than average team that they’ve faced. The Mountaineers are not nearly as good as Clemson and my math model gives the Tigers a 59% chance of covering at -7 points (based on the historical performance of the model), which is a very profitable percentage. I’ll take Clemson in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 at -120 odds or better and for 1-Star up to -8 points.
Rob Vinciletti
BYU at Utah St
Play: BYU
BYU is 6-1 vs Mountain West teams like Utah St and has played a much tougher schedule that includes Wisconsin, LSU and Utah. They are 16-3 in this series and are now a slight dog after opening up as a favorite. Utah St has 2 wins over a terrible San Jose St team and Idaho St. Look for BYU to get the road win here tonight and continue their series dominance.
Buster Sports
Vanderbilt at Florida
Play: Under 41.5
Two teams play today who are slightly offensively challenged. Vanderbilt is ranked number 124 in total offense and Florida is ranked number 113. To make matters worse for these two offenses, they will go up against solid defensive squads. In saying this, Vanderbilt was run over by the number one team in the country last week, but we believe you will see a different Vanderbilt defence in Gainesville on Saturday especially after being embarrassed on national television. Florida turns to Junior QB Luke Del Rio in replacing Freshman QB Feleipe Franks. Del Rio did lead the comeback against Kentucky last week but he will find the going against the Vanderbilt defence a little different. These teams have played a couple of these defensive struggles the last few years and there is no reason to believe that today will be any different. The total at the time of this writing is 41 1/2 and we will be playing the UNDER here as we can’t see either of these teams making it to 20 points.
Oskeim Sports
Iowa vs. Michigan State
Play: Michigan State -4
The misleading final scores from last week’s games provide us with excellent line value on the Spartans. Iowa arrives in town off a heart-breaking 21-19 loss to Penn State that was decided on the final play of the game (Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley connected with Juwan Johnson for the game-winning touchdown as time expired).
Despite losing by just two points, Iowa was actually dominated from the line of scrimmage by the Nittany Lions. Indeed, the Hawkeyes were outgained by over 300 total yards in last week’s deceiving loss.
Meanwhile, Michigan State is home for the fourth consecutive week and is coming off a 38-18 loss to Notre Dame. Despite losing by twenty points, the Spartans actually outgained Notre Dame by 141 total yards but lost due to three turnovers and an uncharacteristically-high number of penalties. Due to last week’s disparate results, the betting public is falling over themselves to grab the points with what they believe is the better team.
However, a cursory review of the game’s respective box scores indicates that Michigan State had the much better performance despite suffering a double-digit loss.
Iowa is 0.6 yards per play better than average offensively (5.5 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 4.9 yards per play) and 0.8 yards per play better than average defensively (5.5 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 6.3 yards per play).
The Hawkeyes now face a stout Michigan State stop unit that is 20.7 points and 254 total yards per game at 4.3 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yards per play against a mediocre defense.
Iowa has no chance of moving the ball on the ground against a Spartans’ front seven that is 1.5 yards per rush attempt better than average this season. (Iowa is 0.4 yards per rush play better than average offensively). The Hawkeyes will also struggle to throw the ball against a Michigan State secondary that is limiting opposing quarterbacks to 5.1 yards per pass attempt with a 46.2% completion rate.
The Spartans own the nation’s sixth-best pass efficiency defense and the 44th-ranked rushing defense. Not surprisingly, Michigan State has committed the 13th-fewest number of penalties this season (head coach Mark Dantonio is one of the nation’s best).
The Spartans should be able to move the chains on the ground against an Iowa defense that is allowing 4.7 yards per rush attempt this season (Michigan State is averaging 221 rushing yards per game at 5.2 yards per rush attempt).
From a technical standpoint, 2-1 college football home teams off a loss in the 4th game of a four-game season-opening home stand are 5-0-1 ATS as favorites of 3+ points since 1980. Let’s also note that Michigan State is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games, whereas the Hawkeyes are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a loss and 5-12-1 ATS after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Tony Finn
Baylor vs, Kansas State
Play: Kansas St -16.5
Kansas State is playing with added preparation after having a bye-week. This Saturday affair offers the team a Big 12 opener against a struggling Baylor Bears (0-4) squad.
The Wildcats' (2-1) last effort was disappointing performance against the Vanderbilt Commodores. The Bears gave the Oklahoma Sooners all they could handle last Saturday in Waco, Texas.
Baylor quarterback Zach Smith has thrown for seven touchdowns against four interceptions this season and in his six career starts has recorded at least 200 yards passing and two touchdowns. The majority of Smith's passes are thrown in the direction of Denzel Mims, who leads Baylor with 18 catches and 406 yards. Running back John Lovett has yet to exceed 100 yards rushing in any one of the team's four games this season.
Baylor ranks 32nd in passing yards (285.2) per game and 92nd in rushing (147.2). Defensively, the Bears allow over 500 yards per game, ranking them near the bottom in college football efficiency.
Kansas State quarterback Jesse Ertz leads the Wildcats in passing and rushing. Ertz has thrown for 587 yards and has registered 237 rushing yards in the team's first three games. Head coach Bill Snyder needs to find more production from his core of running backs reducing the wear and tear on his quarterback, Tailback's Alex Barnes (162 rushing yards) and Dalvin Warmack (76) contribute in the running game. Wide out Isaiah Zuber is the lone Wildcats' receiver with double-digit receptions (13 for 129 yards).
The Wildcats enter their conference opener as the top scoring defense in the Big 12 allowing less than 14 points per game.
Baylor performed admirably in last week's loss to the Sooners recording an against the spread cover while losing their fourth straight on the season. The Bears were out-rushed by a 348-62 margin and stayed in the game because of touchdown passes of 72 and 71 yards.
Coach Snyder and his Wildcats are a perfect 11-0 ATS coming off a bye-week and sport a more physical and technically sound defense than Oklahoma. Don't expect Baylor to repeat last week's performance that resulted in an eight-point loss to the Sooners, a game in which the Bears held a third quarter lead.
Executive Sports
Tulsa +7.5
TULSA is 9-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
TULSA is 6-0 ATS after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons
TULSA is 10-2 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons.
NAVY is 0-6 ATS in road games versus excellent rushing teams averaging >=230 rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons. Conference Opener for Tulsa who has a Great chance of Winning Outright!!
Tony Finn
Vanderbilt at Florida
Play: Vanderbilt +9
Commodores quarterback Kyle Shurmur has completed 63 percent of his passes this year and has eight touchdown tosses against just one interception. Shurmur and his offense struggled against the Crimson Tide defense. There were several dropped balls and the end result was Shurmur going 4-of-15 for 18 yards and an interception, his first of the season, that was a deflection off the hands of a wide open Jared Pinkney on the games first drive.
Florida continues to win despite their roster liabilities. The Gators were fortunate to escape Griffin Stadium with a win over Tennessee and narrowly escaped an upset at Kentucky last week. Florida enters this SEC contest making a change at quarterback. Junior Luke Del Rio, who made six starts last season, is scheduled to make his first start of 2017 after throwing a pair of fourth-quarter touchdown passes in last Saturday's win over the Wildcats.
Del Rio was 5-1 as a starter last season but was anything but efficient. The son of Oakland Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio - had eight touchdowns and eight interceptions - in his six starts.
The current Florida team has been successful the last two years because of their defensive prowess. Behind sophomore linebacker David Reese, who leads the defense with 26 tackles, it isn't a stretch to state that how this Florida defense goes so go the Gators.
The oddsmakers have inflated Florida's market value because of their current record, their history, the school's public perception and the fact that they have a 25-1 record against Vanderbilt in the last 26 games between the two schools.
The Gators have little to no offensive consistency. Florida ranks at the bottom of the FBS in first downs through three games this year and have not a single outside skill-player that is going to create concern for the Vanderbilt secondary.
The Gators are near double digit favorites in this Week 5 contest and could well struggle to score double digit points in the game. The last two games between Jim McElwain’s offense and Derrick Mason’s defense show the Gators scoring a total of 22 points, winning 13-6 as two touchdown chalk last year and 9-7 as three-touchdown favorites two years ago.
Teddy Covers
Nevada at Fresno State
Play: Fresno State -9.5
If you want to be proactive instead of reactive as any serious sportsbettor should strive to do – the time to jump on the Fresno State Bulldogs is right now! The betting markets don’t have a strong sense of where Jeff Tedford’s squad should be power rated right now. Fresno was truly a bottom feeder by the end of the Tim DeRuyter era. They went 20-6 in DeRuyter’s first two years on the job with Derek Carr at QB, but dropped to 4-20 in his last two seasons with two of those four wins coming against FCS level competition. The markets did what they do slow to adjust, but eventually adjusting Fresno waaaaay down from where the program had been for the better part of the previous two decades.
DeRuyter, mercifully, was relieved of his duties by the time November rolled around, and Tedford took over as head coach. Tedford is a legitimate offensive guru with a strong track record as a program builder based on his successful tenure at Cal. But we haven’t seen the Bulldogs take the lid off their new offense yet. Fresno opened with FCS Incarnate Word in a 66-0 shutout over inferior competition. Then they played ‘paycheck’ games at Alabama and Washington, prior to their bye week. Fresno’s season long stats are completely meaningless – one ‘step way down in class’ game and two ‘step way up in class’ games; none of which matter one iota moving forward. With a new coach and a new direction for the program, last year’s stats are meaningless as well. Hence the betting market struggles to price them appropriately.
But make no mistake about it – Fresno is better than they were last year, potentially a lot better. They are already 3-0 ATS, showing clear signs of being undervalued in the markets off last year’s debacle This is most assuredly a statement game for the Bulldogs at home, off a bye, under the lights. Fresno hasn’t beaten an FBS level opponent since 2015 & they’ve got this game circled on their schedule as their ‘coming out party’ for the Tedford era.
And there are a lot of things to like already. Fresno was able to throw the football in those two step-up games against the Crimson Tide and the Huskies. Tedford’s preaching on taking care of the football has worked, with only two offensive turnovers thusfar. His preaching on discipline has worked as well, with Fresno sitting in the Top 5 in fewest penalties and fewest penalty yards. The Bulldogs have solid skill position talent, and a pair of decent QB’s – Chason Virgil as the better runner, Oregon State transfer Marcus McMaryion as the better thrower. But more than any other factor, this is a standout spot to bet the Bulldogs on the come.
While Fresno is rested and ready, Nevada is playing for the fifth straight week after an ugly road loss at Washington State last Saturday. Make no mistake about it – this Wolfpack program is in complete rebuild mode right now in Jay Norvell’s first year on the job; still cleaning up the mess from the Brian Polian era. The offense has committed multiple turnovers in every game. The defense just allowed more than 500 passing yards last week, on the heels of giving up 30 points to FCS Idaho State at home the previous week, a game they lost in SU fashion as 35 point favorites. Clear bet-on vs. clear bet-against.
Drew Martin
UTEP at Army
Play: Army
You can make a strong case UTEP is the worst team in the country right now and oddsmakers are having a real difficult time pricing them. The Miners have not only failed to cover a pointspread in four tries but have come within 10 points of cashing a ticket just once. Last year’s matchup in the Sun Bowl was a blowout from start to finish as the Black Knights put up 600 yards of offense en route to a 66-14 victory. Given the pace and style in which Army plays, it’s extremely difficult to produce that many points and yards which speaks volumes about UTEP’s ineptitude. Has anything changed over the course of a calendar year to suggest the Miners can be competitive? Considering UTEP is being outgained by over three yards per play this season, the answer is emphatically, “no.” There’s been plenty of rumblings that UTEP put no effort into prepping for last year’s contest as Army was the only option team they faced. I’m sure practice time was dedicated to it heading into Saturday’s tilt but in reading some of the local reports, the Miners’ main focus is far more on themselves and finding a way any way to somehow play a competitive football game. The spot for Army isn't great after losing in the closing seconds of last week's game Tulane at a road trip to Rice on deck. But it isn't likely to matter given the fundamental mismatch. It's also worth noting that in UTEP's four losses they've been outscored 42-14 in the fourth quarter which doesn't suggest much of a chance for a "backdoor" cover. Lay the points with confidence.
Rob Veno
Clemson at Virginia Tech
Play: Over 51
Third time in four weeks that Clemson will be tested by a top 25 team. Having already having disposed of Auburn and Louisville both in straight up and against the spread fashion, the Tigers enter having played a far more rugged schedule than Virginia Tech. The Hokies have piled up gaudy statistics the past three weeks (outscored opponents 72-0 in 2H) but Delaware (FCS), East Carolina and Old Dominion hardly make VT battle tested. Last week, Tech faced an ODU team led by a 17-year-old true-freshman QB making his first career start. The Monarchs also played without star RB Ray Lawry for the third straight week. Certainly Virginia Tech will be fired up and well prepared for this game but the question is are they ready for the major step up in class. Their season opener at neutral site FedEx Field against West Virginia saw the Hokies hang on by a thread to win 31-24.
The key fundamentals in this matchup are pretty obvious can Virginia Tech’s offense find a way to neutralize the Clemson front four which has been dominant this season and will either of the first year QB’s be able to excel versus these stout defenses. Again. Clemson has already been in these situations so they should have an advantage. Kelly Bryant did not have a great game (19-of-29, 181 yards) against the elite Auburn defense but he didn’t turn the ball over and the offense rode the defense to a win. The following week it was Clemson’s defense that faced the nation’s top dual threat QB in Louisville’s Lamar Jackson and they basically shut him down until the game was decided in the fourth quarter. Hokies’ dual threat QB Josh Jackson has been stellar thus far but Clemson has already defeated the best.
Prime time Saturday night start guarantees an extremely raucous home crowd and frenzied atmosphere but those situations don’t seem to faze Clemson anymore. The obstacle for the Tigers here will be their opponent which is the most complete team they’ve played thus far. Virginia Tech features the offensive balance that Auburn didn’t plus the physicality and strong defense that Louisville didn’t. My power ratings made this game Clemson -7.5 so the current line is airtight which leaves us with the 50.5 total. That is where we’ll find our edge in this one. Look for each of these up-tempo explosive offenses to make enough plays and wear the opposing defenses down enough to score a baseline of 48 points. From there, have to expect the defenses to rattle the young QB’s into anywhere from 1-3 costly mistakes that lead to points. Special teams are also very capable of scoring here so with the very important key number of 51 on our side, the look here will be toward the over.
BRANDON LEE
California vs. Oregon
Play: Oregon -15
I was high on this Ducks’ team coming into this season and had really been impressed with what I saw in their first 3 games. I was surprised they didn’t come away with a win against Arizona State, but that’s a much improved Sun Devils team that came to play in a prime time game at home. The good news, is I believe that upset loss on the road and Cal keeping it respectable against USC has Oregon showing some value.
This time it’s Oregon that’s going to benefit from playing at home in big game under the lights. A place where they have absolutely dominated teams in years past. While the Ducks are a top level program in the Pac-12, Cal doesn’t get as amped up for them as they do USC, especially with Oregon being unranked.
I see this as a big letdown spot for the Golden Bears and Oregon is a team that can blow you out in a hurry if you aren’t careful. You also can’t forget about the revenge angle with Cal taking down Oregon last year.
Offensively this looks a lot like the old Ducks’ teams. Oregon is 19th in the country in rushing at 244 ypg and 16th in passing at 313 ypg (7th overall in total offense). Defensively they are 46th overall, giving up just 349.6 ypg, a massive improvement over last year when they gave up 41.4 ppg and 518 ypg. The run defense allowed 247 ypg and 5.7 yards/carry in 2016 and this year are giving up 116.8 ypg and 3.1 yards/carry.
I know it’s early, but Oregon’s schedule so far has been far from a walk in the park. I expect this team to continue to light it up offensively and keep improving defensively. I just don’t see Cal being able to keep pace offensively. The Golden Bears had just 13 points before a garbage TD in the final minutes against USC. They also turned the ball over 6 times in that game and have 11 turnovers on the year already. There’s also a lot being made of their defense, but it’s currently 106th in the country, allowing 445.8 ypg.
RAY MONOHAN
Ole Miss vs. Alabama
Play: Alabama -27½
The Crimson Tide come in with plenty of momentum here on Saturday night.
Alabama rolled over Vanderbilt last week and QB Jalen Hurts had to do very minimal work in the 59-0 route. We'll get a very well rested Alabama team here in this one, as they really should just over power Ole Miss.
The Crimson Tide racked up 677 yards in the victory last week, as they simply wore down Vandy. That should be the same case here as they should be able to run the ball with ease against this Ole Miss team that concedes 26 points per game.
Some trends note. Rebels are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Rebels are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Ole Miss concedes 184 rush yards per game. Alabama rumbled for 496 yards in their win last week. This is too much of a mismatch.
ALEX SMART
South Carolina vs. Texas A&M
Play: South Carolina +8
Both Texas A&M and South.Carolina enter this game with identical 3-1 records. but one team the Gamecocks, has played the better competition and has looked the more consistent of both teams.
After the Aggies went into OT to snatch a win vs Arkansas last time out a possible letdown scenario for Sumlin's troops could easily emerge .Add to that a look ahead scenario for next weeks game vs Alabama and I'm betting double jeopardy will be in play. With that said, taking the points here makes for viable betting option.
TEXAS A&M is 2-14 ATS L/16 after playing a conference game and are 0-9 ATS after the first month of the season.
CFB Road team like S.Carolina - off a home win, with 4+ more total starters and an experienced QB returning against team with new QB are 47-18 ATS over the L/5 seasons with a 72% conversion rate for bettors.
STEPHEN NOVER
Northwestern vs. Wisconsin
Play: Northwestern +15
Wisconsin has had problems the past three years against Northwestern. The Wildcats beat the Badgers in 2014 and 2015. Wisconsin got past the Wildcats, 21-7, last season. Wisconsin is averaging just 14 points during its last three games against Northwestern.
Northwestern has covered 73 percent of the time it has been a 'dog in the past 26 instances. The Wildcats also are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 away contests.
The Badgers are a conservative ground-oriented team. They aren't built to cover two-touchdown spreads against quality foes. Northwestern's defensive strength is its front seven. The Badgers lack the passing attack to take major advantage of the Wildcats' secondary.
Wisconsin has an outstanding defense. But the Badgers haven't met an opponent yet with the firepower of Northwestern, having played Utah State, Florida Atlantic and BYU.
Northwestern has an experienced quarterback, Clayton Thorson, and one of the top running backs in the country, senior Justin Jackson, who will break Northwestern's all-time rushing record if he gains more than 108 yards against Wisconsin. Jackson has rushed for at least 139 yards in two of his three games against the Badgers.