Teddy Covers
UCLA vs. Arizona
Play: UCLA -2
Teddy is primed to deliver the goods in the NFL this week, locked and loaded with three rock solid Sunday winners along with four strong college football winners for Saturday! Don't miss a single 'right side' cash!
Bye weeks are very meaningful in college football. Banged up players get a chance to get healthy. Coaches have extra time to shore up flaws and prepare gameplans. Players get a much needed break and tend to come back with full focus. As we approach the college football season’s halfway point, we should take note to adjust power ratings up a notch or two for teams coming off their break.
UCLA is in that exact situation this week. The Bruins faced a brutal non-conference slate, including Texas A&M and Memphis. They opened their PAC-12 slate with Stanford and Colorado. The Arizona team they’ll face on Saturday Night is as weak as any foe they’ve seen all year, with the lone exception of Hawaii. And it’s surely worth noting that the Bruins beat Hawaii 56-23, covering the spread as 24 point favorites.
The Bruins defense currently ranks #128 in the country against the run, allowing 284 yards per game and 6.3 yards per carry, truly awful numbers. But those season long stats don’t tell the true story of what we can expect from UCLA on Saturday. Injured defensive starters Jaelan Phillips, Lokeni Toailoa and Dechaun Holiday are all expected back on the field this week; a SIGNIFICANT upgrade for their Front Seven on ‘D’.
That matters, a lot, because Arizona might have found themselves a QB last week. Sophomore Khalil Tate was mostly a running threat as a true frosh last year, attempting only 45 pass attempts for the season. Tate was injured over the summer and didn’t get a chance to compete for the starting job. But he’s healthy now and coming off a truly brilliant starting debut, rushing for more than 300 yards while compiling a QB rating of 217.2, throwing only one incomplete pass all day.
Can Tate do it again, or is he just a one hit wonder? Here’s what UCLA head coach Jim Mora had to say: “It’s like playing a wildcat offense with a quarterback that can throw. We have to play hard but play with patience, play with speed but play with patience, and that’s sometimes a difficult combination. But we’ve been working really hard on it, and our guys have a great understanding of what we’re up against.”
UCLA’s defense should be better with three key starters back. They’ve got film on Tate to work with and extra time to prep for Rich Rodriguez’s attack. The Bruins own offense is loaded with quality skill position talent, and QB Josh Rosen is still very much alive to be the first QB chosen in the draft next spring. And Arizona’s defense is a long, long way from being an elite unit, capable of shutting the Bruins down.
Let’s not forget about the head-to-head matchup record between Jim Mora and RichRod! In five previous meetings between these two head coaches, Mora is 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS, covering the spread by an AVERAGE of more than 19 points per game. Now that’s a track record worthy of support!
Matt Josephs
Nevada vs. Colorado St
Play: Nevada +24½
The Wolf Pack are flying high after picking up their first win of the season last time out against Hawaii. Nevada showed some offensive balance and just enough defense to win that one. Colorado State is coming off three straight weeks on the road and there's always an adjustment to playing at home early on. The Rams also have a road trip at New Mexico next week so maybe focus could be an issue. CSU's defense can be beaten. Nevada has covered 10 of their last 19 conference games. I think this one is a bit too high.
Oskeim Sports
Virginia at North Carolina
Play: North Carolina +4
These teams are heading in opposite directions as Virginia has won and covered three straight games, whereas the Tar Heels have lost and failed to cover three consecutive games. The Cavaliers have caught the attention of bettors after pulling off back-to-back upsets over Boise State (42-23; 14-point underdogs) and Duke (28-21; 2-point underdogs). However, Bronco Mendenhall’s squad has played one of the easiest schedules in the nation through the first six weeks.
Hosting William & Mary, Indiana and Connecticut is hardly a difficult task, and Virginia actually lost to the Hoosiers by seventeen points. In contrast, the Tar Heels have played a substantially more difficult schedule, including games against California, Louisville, Duke, Georgia Tech and Notre Dame. The concern I have with North Carolina is the fact that it has fallen short of the market’s expectations in five of the first six weeks of 2017.
Virginia is 0.5 yards per play better than average from the line of scrimmage (0.1 yards per play better than average offensively and 0.4 yards per play better than average defensively). The Cavaliers’ pedestrian attack won’t be able to exploit a subpar North Carolina defense that is 0.3 yards per play worse than average (6.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yards per play against a mediocre stop unit).
The Tar Heels’ secondary has been really bad this season (7.5 yards per pass play to a group of quarterbacks that would combine to average just 6.6 yards per pass attempt against a mediocre secondary), but Virginia’s passing game is well below average and doesn’t have the big play ability to take advantage of North Carolina’s defensive shortcomings. Overall, Virginia possesses a 0.4 yards per play advantage from the line of scrimmage over the Tar Heels’ defense.
North Carolina possesses a decent offense that is averaging 25.3 points and 373 total yards per game against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yards per play to a mediocre attack. It’s a relatively even matchup when North Carolina has the ball and I expect the Tar Heels to be extremely focused on what would be a season-salvaging win before the home faithful. Let’s also note that Virginia is traveling for just the second time this season and has not faced a conference foe on foreign soil.
With respect to special teams, North Carolina is ranked 8th-nationally in net punting (42.55), 24th in kickoff returns (24.96) and 46th in punt returns (8.92), all of which give the Tar Heels better field position in this game. North Carolina also has an above-average red zone defense. From a technical standpoint, North Carolina is a profitable 9-3 ATS in its last twelve October affairs, 23-8 ATS at home versus teams with a winning road record, 11-5 ATS in its last sixteen games following a double-digit home loss and 31-15-1 ATS after failing to eclipse 20 points in its previous contest.
Finally, my math model indicates that the wrong team is favored (makes North Carolina a 2-point favorite). With Virginia standing at 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series, grab the points with the desperate home underdog and invest with confidence.
Brandon Lee
Michigan State vs. Minnesota
Play: Michigan State -4
I just don’t think the books or the public understand just how good this Michigan State team is. The Spartans only loss so far this season is a 18-38 home loss to Notre Dame. What gets overlooked from that 20-point loss is the fact that Michigan State outgained the Irish 496 to 355. That’s an impressive feat given how well the Irish have looked to this point.
The key here is Michigan State’s defense, which has been playing at an elite level so far this season. The Spartans are 4th in the country, giving up just 258.6 ypg. They excel against both the run (11th, 97.2 ypg) and the pass (13th, 161.5 ypg). I’m sure you’ve heard it plenty of times, but top tier defenses like the Spartans tend to travel well.
If they play up to their potential, it’s hard to see Minnesota’s offense being able to much of anything. The Gophers really rely on their running game to get going, as they are 47th in rushing (190 ypg), compared to 97th in passing (169.8 ypg). Michigan State is holding opponents to 1.8 yards/carry less than their season average. Not to mention opposing quarterbacks are completing a mere 48% of their passes against them.
Minnesota has a good defense and the Spartans offense isn’t anything special, but I at least think Michigan State can sustain some drives. I look for the Spartans to dominate the time of possession early and take advantage of a tired Minnesota defense in the 2nd half to secure the win.
Michigan State is 30-18 ATS in their 48 road games under Dantonio, as well as a perfect 8-0 in road games when the total is 42 or less. Maybe even the more important stat is how this team has not let a big win take away from their play the next week, as they are 9-2 ATS under Dantonio off a win over a conference opponent as an underdog. No surprise, as Dantonio really emphasizes playing well after a big game and likes to use these contests as measuring sticks. I expect Michigan State to be up to the challenge.
Joseph D'Amico
Oklahoma vs. Texas
Play: Texas +9½
After LW's,38-31 shocking loss to Iowa State, it isn't Oklahoma atop the BIG 12 standings, but Texas along with TCU at 2-0 in Conference play. The Longhorns covered the L4 in this series and come into Saturday's matchup riding a 4-game cover streak, while the Sooners have failed to get bettors paid their L2 outings. The OU defense has been a doormat, allowing Baylor and ISU to put up a combined, 72 points the last few contests. Texas QB, Sam Ehlinger can and will pick apart an Oklahoma secondary ranking 98th vs. the pass. No way should the Sooners be a DD favorite as they are 1-4-1 ATS their L6 games played in Texas and 1-6 ATS their L7 games played on neutral sites. The Longhorns are 5-1-1 ATS their L7 games played vs. teams with a winning record and 4-1 ATS their L5 neutral site games.
Scott Spreitzer
Northwestern vs. Maryland
Play: Northwestern -3
Cluster injuries are bad no matter where they take place on a football team, but when it happens to the QB position, there's simply no way of making up ground and picking up the slack. Maryland was already down their top two QBs and now may have lost their third. Young Max Bortenschlager was forced into action the last few games due to injuries to those in front of him, but he's now banged-up after suffering a head injury. Bortenschlager is listed as questionable for this contest. If he can't go, the Terps will be down to their 4th string QB, a transfer from North Carolina. If he plays, we're fine with laying the points as the young signal caller has not intimidated any defensive backfields. Maryland was already ranked 122nd through the air and 108th in total yards gained per game. The Maryland pass defense isn't much better, allowing over 36 ppg. I expect the Terps to be "just what the doctor ordered" for Northwestern to climb back to .500 and claim their first conference win of the season. The Wildcats have covered 11 of their last 15 road games and we'll back them here.
Doug Upstone
Kansas vs. Iowa State
Play: Iowa State -22½
As usual, Kansas is not having a good football season. The Jayhawks travel to Ames to take in Iowa State who is off monster upset of Oklahoma. On Saturday teams like Kansas rushing for 4.3 to 4.8 yards per carry, against an average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games are 4-23 ATS since 2013.
ASA
Ohio vs. Bowling Green
Play: Ohio -10
We like the spot to play on a good team coming off an upset loss as a chalk (Ohio U), against a bad team (Bowling Green) off an upset win as a dog. Let’s start with a Bowling Green team that we have rated in the bottom 10 teams in all college football. BG is 102nd in total offense averaging just 345 total yards per game, and worse yet defensively, ranking 125th while allowing over 530 total yards per game. What’s most alarming about those numbers is they fact they’ve played the 106th easiest schedule in the nation. The Falcons are coming off a huge upset win at Miami (Oh), a game in which they were outplayed, and outgained by 116 total yards. Miami even lost their starting QB in that contest and were still plus 11 minutes in time of possession and had 11 more first downs. In five games this season, Bowling Green has been outgained by nearly 1,000 yards!! Ohio U comes into this game highly motivated off an upset loss last week. The Bobcats outgained CMU last week but were minus -3 in turnovers, one of which was a TD off a blocked FG. Ohio U allows just 5.3 yards per play which is much better than the 6.8YPPL the Falcons allow and they’re better offensively by .8YPPL which is more than it looks like. We like the situation and will lay the number on the road with the Bobcats.
John Martin
Georgia State vs. UL-Monroe
Play: UL-Monroe -7
The Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks have been flying under the radar this season in the Sun Belt. They have gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in five games. Their two losses came to two very good teams in Memphis (29-37) and Southern Miss (17-28), so they were competitive in both contests. They went on the road and beat a good Lafayette team 56-50 as 4-point dogs, and won 45-27 at Texas State as 5.5-point favorites. They also covered as 7-point home favorites in a 51-43 win over Coastal Carolina. Georgia State clearly isn't very good, and that was evident in the opener when it lost 10-17 at home to FCS Tennessee State as a 15-point favorite. They lost 56-0 to Penn State, and their only two wins came against two of the worst teams in the country in Charlotte and Coastal Carolina. The Warhawks are averaging 39.6 points per game this season, and when I'm laying points, I like backing high-powered offenses like this one. Georgia State, which is scoring just 16.2 points per game, cannot keep up.
Chip Chirimbes
UNLV vs. Air Force
Play: UNLV +8
Air Force is off a hard fought loss to Navy where they out-gained the Midshipman but over 100 yards. UNLV has shown the ability to move the ball and score averaging 266 yards per game on the ground but they haven't tackled many people yet this season. The Falcons are surrendering 250 yards per game rushing and UNLV has a pair of future pro's in quarterback/running back Armini Rogers and halfback Lexington Thomas.
Jeff Alexander
Michigan vs. Indiana
Play: Michigan -7
I like this Indiana team, but they are simply getting too much respect at home against the Wolverines. This may have been a spot where the Wolverines would have slipped up if they pulled off the win over in-state rival Michigan State last week, but the fact they lost that game is going to have this team pissed off and looking to remind everyone that they are still a factor in this loaded Big Ten East race. Let's also not overlook the fact that the Spartans are a very good team. Indiana played two of the big boys out of the East so far. While they were competitive against Ohio State at home, they still lost by 28. The other was a game at Penn State, where they lost by 31. Michigan doesn't have the offensive fire-power as those two teams, but are better defensively. I look for Indiana to struggle to score and the Wolverines offense to just enough to secure a win by more than a touchdown and also keep this game under the total of 47, something along the lines of 24-14.
Will Rogers
Texas Christian vs. Kansas State
Pick: Texas Christian -6
The set-up: After 12-win and 11-win seasons in 2014 and 2015, Garry Patterson's TCU Horned Frogs entered the 2017 season off a 6-7 record in 2016, after the school lost 31-23 to Georgia in the Liberty Bowl. However, TCU has beaten then-No. 6 Oklahoma State at Stillwater 44-31 on Sep. 30 and followed with a 31-24 home win over then-No. 23 West Va. last Saturday. Those consecutive wins over ranked opponents has TCU at 5-0 on the season (now ranked No. 6 in the AP poll) plus the Horned Frogs suddenly have the inside track at the Big 12 regular-season title. TCU will travel to Manhattan, Kansas on Saturday (12 noon ET kick-off) to take on Bill Snyder's Kansas State's Wildcats, who are 3-2 (1-1 in Big 12), after losing 40-34 to Texas last Saturday in two-OTs.
TCU: The Horned Frogs are the only undefeated team left in the Big 12, after escaping with a 31-24 win over West Virginia despite giving up 508 yards of offense last week. "I would bet that every game is going to be like this," Horned Frogs coach Gary Patterson told reporters after the win. "If you are going to win a championship, there is a general rule, every year I have been here for 17 years as a head coach, you win about three or four of them that are going to be ugly." QB Kenny Hill is playing much better in 2017, completing 69.0 percent with 10 TDs and just three INTs. He leads an offense averaging 44.7 PPG (7th), featuring excellent balance, averaging 259.0 YPG passing (43rd) and 219.8 YPG rushing (26th). Yes, the defense was ripped by West Va. in its last game but on the season, TCU is holding opponents to 19.6 PPG (31st).
Kansas State: The Wildcats average 36.8 PPG (29th) and allow just 20.0 PPG (37th), which is impressive. QB Jesse Ertz is completing only 55.0 percent with seven TDs and three INTs but is also the team's leading rusher with 336 yards (5.2 YPC). The defense had its trouble with Texas last week but is a typical Snyder defense, as usual. Both KSU's losses have come on the road (also lost 14-7 at Vandy) and come into this contest 3-0 at home, outscoring opponents, 47.7-to-15.3 PPG. This is Snyder's second tenure at KSU and since his return (in 2009), the Wildcats are 45-12 SU in Manhattan.
The pick: Bill Snyder’s team is just a couple of plays from sitting 5-0 S in 2017 and also his Wildcats are 33-17 ATS as dog since 2009. However, TCU will not forget losing at home to Kansas State last year, 30-6! QB Kenny Hill struggled mightily in that loss, completing just 5-of-11 passes for 52 yards while the team was held without a TD for the first time since 2006. Meanwhile, KSU's Ertz ran for 170 yards and a score in addition to his 159 passing yards and a TD in last season's demolition of TCU. Ertz missed the fourth quarter and OTs with a knee injury last week at Texas but is expected to start on Saturday. However, my bet says "turn about is fair play.
Brandon Shively
Miami (Ohio) vs. Kent State
Pick: Kent State +9.5
Kent State and Miami OH battle in a MAC East showdown and grabbing the points with the home team is a nice move here.
Kent has been subpar, no way around it. However, this is a matchup for them where they will come out firing and ready to go.
Miami OH has been very shaky on both sides of the ball as they rank 77th in total offense and are conceding 27.5 points per game. The Redhawks are a team that doesn't have any explosiveness behind them, the first time this season Kent is seeing a team like this.
It's also homecoming for the Golden Flashes. A better crowd should be on hand here and they'll be ready to go in this one.
Zack Cimini
Cincinnati vs. South Florida
Pick: South Florida -24
South Florida has not been impressive to any degree but showed signs last week in a pull away victory over East Carolina. With how poor Cincinnati looked against Central Florida one has to wonder if they can get worse? Sometimes a well known school is susceptible to a high degree. The Bearcats are that school and are priced for another blowout Saturday. Grab South Florida.
Power Sports
Cincinnati vs. South Florida
Pick: Cincinnati +24
What appears to be a sizable mismatch on paper, may not be so. I've already gone on the record numerous times in saying that USF is not deserving of its Top 25 ranking. They're maybe Top 40, but that's about it. The Bulls are a byproduct of a lot of offseason hype (touted as potential 'Group of 5' team to make a 'New Year's Six' Bowl Game) thanks to last year's breakthrough 10-3 SU campaign under Willie Taggart. But Taggart now plies his trade in Eugene, Oregon. Charlie Strong happened to inherit a very talented bunch, one that is still undefeated (5-0) mind you. But the losses will come, mark my words. Maybe not here, but I don't see USF covering this large spread either.
Cincinnati remains in rebuild mode under their 1st year coach, Luke Fickell. Needless to say, Fickell walked into a much different situation that Strong did. There were some positive signs early in the season, namely hanging w/ Michigan for three quarters (in "The Big House") and then upsetting Miami (OH) in the Battle for the Victory Bell. But since then, things have gone south in a hurry. There was a 51-31 loss to Navy. Then, a rough 38-21 loss to Marshall that could have gone differently if not for three turnovers. Last week, the only positive was that if you bet the Bearcats, it didn't hurt you in the wallet, because the game vs. UCF was called early and thus all wagers were declared null and void (torrential downpour).
So why take Cincy in this spot, especially when USF is off a bye? Well, for starters, I've gotta believe the Bearcats will start to play better. They're only being outscored by 10.2 PPG to begin with, so if they can hit that average, it's a comfortable cover. Also, USF has played a ridiculously easy schedule to this point. They've played an FCS school (Stony Brook), two of the bottom five FBS teams (East Carolina, San Jose St), leaving either Temple or Illinois as your choice for toughest opponent to date. Yikes. I say the dog stays well within the number here as they have covered 8 of the past 12 times they've gotten more than three touchdowns (21 pts) from the oddsmakers.