Andrew Lange
UAB at Florida
Play: Over 48
Not much of anything to play for other than pride in this matchup as UAB heads to Florida for a late season non-conference affair. The Blazers have been on of the biggest overachievers in the country this season with a 7-3 record (8-2 ATS). But there isn't much on the line their last two games with bowl eligibility wrapped up and North Texas having already clinched the West Division. The Gators, who fired head coach Jim McElwain two weeks ago, have lost five straight and will obviously not be participating in the postseason. Their focus is likely on not getting embarrassed at home against a mid-major.
Interesting angle to consider here is the schedule for both squads. UAB has not played a single Power 5 team this season. In fact, they haven't faced a team inside Sagarin's top 100; North Texas (100th) their "toughest" opponent. Florida meanwhile has not played a single non-Power 5 squad. Vanderbilt (97th) was their weakest foe to-date; UAB checks in at 112th.
The biggest issue for Florida has been a lack of offensive production with only 334 ypg vs. the SEC. Three different quarterbacks have seen action with freshman Feleipe Franks expected to start as Malik Zaire is questionable due to a knee injury. If you eliminate a stinker vs. Georgia's top-tier stop unit and getting thrown into last week's game at South Carolina after Zaire went down, Franks has been serviceable. I think they'll be able to move the ball against a UAB defense that has benefited from a soft schedule and a down year for offenses in C-USA. The Blazers didn't play Florida Atlantic and against North Texas allowed 548 yards at 7.5 ypp. And while Florida's offense has been abysmal, the defense has quietly eroded of late. Over the last three weeks against Georgia, Missouri, and South Carolina, the Gators allowed a combined 7.1 ypp.
In the end, I expect this one to play "loose" as neither team has much of anything to lose. Remember, Florida was 3-0 and averaged 30.6 ppg to open SEC play. And while the comp was weak, UAB has been consistent enough offensively (23 points its lowest output) that it should be able to net enough points to help get this game over the relatively low total of 48.
Doug Upstone
Iowa State vs. Baylor
Play: Iowa St -9½
Iowa State has lost a couple games in the last two weeks yet are still in good position this Saturday. Here is how; road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like the Cyclones, after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning record on the season, playing a losing team, are 28-6 ATS, 82.4%, the last decade.
Chip Chirimbes
Navy vs. Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame
Oh, so happy to see Notre Dame go down last week (nothing personal) it's just that 'we' have Miami as part of our 5-0-1 Saturday as a Megabucks Best Bet winner. Navy opened the season 5-0 and then dropped three straight before last weeks 43-40 win over SMU while, oh well ,we now know the Fighting Irish won't be part of the College Football Playoff but they are the side here. This is strength against strength as Navy rushes for 370 yards a game while Notre Dame averages 303 against better competition. The Midshipman became bowl eligible last week and that take a little off their intensity. The 'number' is excessive but the final will justify it.
Ray Monohan
Virginia vs. Miami-FL
Play: Virginia +19
Expectations are now extremely high as Miami controls it's own destiny to the BCS Playoff.
This is quite the look ahead and let down spot for them.
Miami jumped to #2 in the country after their home win last week against Notre Dame. It was an absolute route that was quite the emotional win for them.
Coming back down here to a game where the crowd obviously won't be as rowdy and the opponent isn't one you necessarily want to get up from. The Cavaliers have the capabilities to put together some offensive drives as well, which can allow them to steal some early momentum here.
Some trends to note. Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Virginia is worth the move here, as the Hurricanes are certainly going to be in an emotional spot here.
Rob Vinciletti
Air Force vs. Boise State
Play: Boise State -17½
Boise has won 5 straight and will look to serve up some last home game revenge here tonight on a Fading Air Force team. Boise was down 25 last week at Colorado St. and came back for a 7 point win. They are 86-4 vs losing teams long term and have covered in 8 of the last of those games. Game 11 teams that are .500 or less that were winning teams last season that are on off back to back losses vs an opponent who is a winning teams are failing to cover over 80% of the time long term, so we will play against an Air Force team that fits that system and allows over 40 points on the road. Play on Boise St in this one.
Ben Burns
Pelicans vs. Nuggets
Play: Nuggets -4½
The Nuggets’ stinker at Portland on Monday night notwithstanding, there are a lot of positive signs for Denver heading into this game. The Nuggets are rested, they’ve had time to work out issues that cropped up Monday and they hope to be a deeper team with the expected return of Gary Harris to the starting lineup. Harris enables Will Barton to return to the bench and add depth. And with Jokic and Millsap, Denver also has the size to deal with New Orleans’ Davis/Cousins two-headed monster in the paint. Toss in that Denver has been tough at home of late (5-1 at the Pepsi Center in November, including wins over Toronto and Oklahoma City) and the building blocks are in place for a cover tonight.
Mike Anthony
California vs. Stanford
Play: California +15.5
Patrick Laird accelerates off the line of scrimmage with power and great footwork. When he gets moving - his running skill is tough to stop. Stanford will not be able to keep him contained throughout the game - Laird uses his size to bust past Dlines and free himself in the next level of defense. His vision and big yard games have proven this time and time again. He is a very dangerous back - they have big plays on the edge of happening with their talented RB. Stanford does not always make the big stops when needed - these are both offensive teams - but Stanford lacks a good rushing D. As their opponents 4.6 rushing YPC has shown that lack of discipline vs RBs. For being a good team - their pass coverage has also had some problems getting stops at times. Stanford will have problems if California's RB gets a good feel vs their Dline. The Cardinal were expected to be a defensive minded team - but their 3rd down defense has looked far worse than expected. Cardinal are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win California wins with the points as your comp.
MMA OddsBreaker
Parlay - Theodoreau -270 & Tuivasa -165
I think Elias Theodoreau (-270) and Tai Tuivasa (-165) both hold a bit of value at their current odds. I see Theodoreau playing the distance game and outpointing Dan Kelly on the feet for the majority of three rounds en route to picking up a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards, though I could also see him finding success with his wrestling and ground and pound in this bout. Tuivasa is making his promotional debut against Rashad Coulter, who is coming off a second round knockout loss to Chase Sherman, in what was his UFC debut, where he also collected an extra $50,000 for ‘Fight of the Night’ honors. Tuivasa is a training partner of Mark Hunt’s and Tyson Pedro’s, and he will certainly have the home advantage heading into his debut. I believe he will also be the better mixed martial artist between the two, and I expect his superior technique to make the difference, as I see him finding clean shots early and putting Coulter away.
Brad Diamond
Missouri vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Missouri -7½
Saturday night. we have the inconsistent Commies showing 4-6 but, still have a limited chance at the postseason, and they are playing at home in the role of an underdog with little respect from the lines makers. Still, they are averaging 20-points a game on offense #108 nationally. Mizzou, on the other hand, comes in 5-5 with a shot at the postseason but, must win out to accrue that status. They have covered the number in six straight games with that vaunted offense has averaged over 49-points the last three times out. Offensively, they are ranked #26 overall. Defensively, they allow 5.69 yards per play and 458 yards per game. In Strength of Schedule, they are #60. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS against losing teams and should survive the number if, they keep possession of the football. Remember, they are 4-0 ATS in the SEC and 4-1 ATS in the month of November.
Although, this is an obvious revenge situation (2016 loss) for the Commies they are coming in after an inconsistent showing against “Kentucky” with a critical four INTs crushing their hopes. No doubt this is an experienced team and will be primed for an upset, still, we must remind “emotion” geeks again about their turnover issues on offense. Defensively, they surrender 5.79 yards per play, 405 yards per game, and rank #128 in turnovers gained which is an indicator their defense does not generate change-over. Strength of Schedule Vandy is rated #58 and has yet to win an SEC game. The Commies are 0-5-1 ATS in the SEC and 2-5 ATS at home.
Joe DelPopolo
Hawaii vs. Utah State
Play: Hawaii +10½
Based on my Stat-Key Power Rating system and predictive math-model Hawaii will keep it close in this one. It's offense vs defense in this one on both sides. Hawaii has the better offense while Utah St has the better defense. Utah State has a poor offense and Hawaii has a poor defense. With the number being this big we will take the overall better offensive team that could get the backdoor cover for us if we need it.
TJ Pemberton
Maryland vs. Michigan State
Play: Michigan State -16
The Michigan State Spartans get set to host the Maryland Terrapins on Saturday. The Spartans got beat up last week in Ohio State losing 48-3. Michigan State is 7-3 on the season and 2nd in the Big Ten East. The Spartans are 5-1 on their home field and 5-2 in Conference games. The Spartans have covered six games this season. Michigan State plays their best football on their home field and have covered the spread in eight of their last nine home games. The Spartans are in a nice revenge spot as they lost to Maryland last season 28-17.
The Maryland Terrapins have lost two straight heading into this one. Maryland is 4-6 on the season and 6th in the Big Ten East. The Terrapins are 2-3 on the road this season and 2-5 in Conference games. Maryland lost to Michigan 35-10 on their home field last week. The Terrapins and been outscored 66-34 over the past two weeks and it does not get easier at MSU. Maryland has covered just two of their last eleven road games.
Scott Rickenbach
Iowa State vs. Baylor
Play: Over 50½
The Cyclones have a great defense but they've struggled the past two weeks and, off of back to back losses and with only an "outside shot" at the Big 12 title game, the intensity is "off" now for Iowa State's defense. That is likely to spell trouble against a Baylor offense that is off of a deceiving final score versus Texas Tech last week. The Bears scored only 24 points but they did have over 500 yards of offense. The result is line value here and Baylor's defense will struggle considering Iowa State QB Kyle Kempt has been upgraded to probable for this game. The Bears have allowed at least 38 points in 4 of their last 5 games. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 this season in Baylor's games against teams with a winning record. The Cyclones are 6-3 to the over as a road favorite. I am aware that there will be some wind in Waco this afternoon but that is the only thing that prevented this play from being a star rated pick for me today. I do expect this to still fly over the total as it has been pushed far too low given the situation.
Vic Duke
Florida Int vs. Florida Atl
Play: Florida Int +14½
Going to give the edge to Butch Davis in the battle of the recycled coaches. Davis is equipped with a respectable defense that can limit FAU weapons - RB Singletary and QB Driskel. Realize Kiffin's bunch puts points up on the board but this is one of the better defenses he'll deal with in the C-USA. On the other hand, Kiffin's defense has been shaky and he's thin at corner. We'll look for QB McGough to find his rhythm. The Golden Panthers are 5-1 ATS in this series and the dog has won 5 straight. Butch's veteran team is getting two touchdowns and that's good value.
Kyle Hunter
Kentucky vs. Georgia
Play: Kentucky +21½
The Georgia Bulldogs were beaten badly by Auburn last week. Georgia though still has a chance to play in the playoffs if they beat Alabama in the SEC title game. Georgia has two big games coming up. They play against rival Georgia Tech next weekend. They play Alabama the week after that. It would be easy for them to take it easy on Kentucky in this spot.
Kentucky has actually played well on the road. The Wildcats won at South Carolina. Kentucky also won big at Vanderbilt last week. I don't think this game will be really close, but I also don't think Georgia will drill Kentucky here.
Georgia plays at one of the five slowest tempo's in the country. The Bulldogs played relatively close games against Appalachian State and South Carolina at home. Look for them to win, but fail to cover this big number. There are far more important games ahead for Georgia.
Brian Hay
Missouri vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Missouri -7.5
I have to ask how Missouri can only be favored by 7.5 over Vanderbilt after waxing Florida and Tennessee like a couple of JUCO teams and both those teams have better talent than Vandy, who was beaten like a drum at home by Kentucky last week by 23 points. Missouri's last 3 games, were wins by a combined score of 147-35 and Drew Lock is the best throwing QB in the SEC and #4 in the nation in passing efficiency. Missouri in a complete blow out here today.