Matt Josephs
Cal Poly vs. Fresno St
Play: Cal Poly +7½
The Mustangs hit the road to play Fresno State on Saturday. It's the start of six straight for Cal Poly who has won two straight and five of their last seven games. They already have a win at Northern Illinois and a nine point loss at Pepperdine. Fresno State has won three of their last four, but already has a home loss against Prairie View A&M. They have not had many issues scoring the ball, but the defense has been porous at times. Fresno has covered just 12 of their last 27 games as a favorite. I think this is just a bit too many points.
Jimmy Boyd
Valparaiso vs. Missouri St
Play: Valparaiso Pk
I'm going to back the Crusaders in what I feel is a very favorable line here on the road at pick'em against Missouri State. Valparaiso may not have Bryce Drew on the sidelines anymore, but this is still a really talented team led by NBA prospect Alec Peters. They still play a very similar style, as they promoted 3-year assistant Matt Lottich to replace Drew. Not only do I feel that the Crusaders are the more talented team, but this is a great spot to back them.
Valparaiso is going to be motivated here off a 24-point loss at Kentucky, which is nothing to be ashamed of giving how good the Wildcats are. Their only other loss this season was a true road game at Oregon, who is another national title contender. While the Crusaders have been tested by some elite teams, Missouri State has played a soft schedule and lost both games against their toughest competition, which was DePaul and Air Force. Their 5 wins are against Alabama A&M, Jacksonville State, Fontbonne, North Dakota State and SE Missouri State. It's also worth point out that these two teams played last year and the Crusaders dominated in a 74-45 win as a 14-point home favorite.
The Crusaders have also been covering machines when playing in a game with a line right around a pick'em, as they are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 with a spread of +3 to -3. They are also a dominant 28-7 ATS in their last 35 off a road loss by 10 or more points and 22-9 in their last 31 road games after playing their last two games as an underdog.
Larry Ness
Golden State vs. Memphis
Pick: Golden State
The Warriors opened the season as the NBA’s “Super team” but eyebrows were raised when the Spurs routed the Warriors 129-100 in Oakland. Then, in just Game 6 of the new season, the sad-sack Lakers trounced the Warriors 117-97 at Staples Center and almost all were asking, “What’s Up?” However, there are no questions being asked these days, as the Warriors are 19-1 their last 20 games, including 8-0 on the road. Memphis is without two max-contract players in PG Conley and SF Chandler Parsons (knee) but has strung together five straight wins (4-1 ATS) to reach 16-8.
The Warriors own an 11-1 road record since adding Durant via free agency over the summer and began a rough seven-day, five-day trip with wins over the Los Angeles Clippers (115-98 ) and Utah Jazz (106-99) on Wednesday and Thursday, giving them four wins in a row overall and eight in succession on the road since losing to the Los Angeles Lakers more than a month ago (Nov. 4). Not surprisingly, the Warriors lead the NBA in several offensive categories in road games, including points per game (115.2), field goal percentage (48.5) and assists (30.8 ). Durant (26.2-8.5-4.8 ) and Curry (25.9-4.0-5.8 ) give Golden State the league’s highest scoring duo, Thompson (22.0) makes it a trio of 20-point scorers and Green (10.8-8.5-7.3) is the ultimate “team player,” when he’s not doing something stupid.
The Grizzlies’ five-game winning streak has seen all games decided by five or fewer points, the first time a team has fashioned that kind of streak since the 2009-10 season. Memphis has accomplished its feat without Mike Conley (back), Chandler Parsons (knee) and Vince Carter (hip), all of whom have been out with injuries. Marc Gasol (19.9-6.1-4.1) has led the way for the Grizzlies in their winning streak, scoring more than 25 points in four of the five games while shooting 50 for 98 (51.0%) overall and 10 for 20 on three-pointers. PF Zach Randolph missed seven games due to the death of his mother but has returned for the last two wins, adding a combined 23 points and 19 rebounds off the bench.
Memphis has won nine of its 13 home games this season, allowing only 97.9 points per game on 43.1-percent shooting but this is Golden State. The thought of Curry against Memphis =rookie PGs Andrew Harrison and Wade Baldwin is a scary mismatch. Want an example? Harrison is starting in place of Conley (19.2 & 5.7 APG) and is 8-of-41 19.5%) from the floor over the last four games. Lay the points with the road favorite.
David Banks
Army +4.5
It’s what college football is all about. The 119th meeting between the two rivals takes place Saturday at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore and marks the end of the 2016 college football regular season. Navy, which has won 14 straight in the series, will face some serious adversity in trying to make it 15 in a row. The Midshipmen lost their starting quarterback Will Worth last week in the American Athletic Conference championship, a game Navy lost 34-10 to Temple.
Without Worth, who had rushed for 1,198 yards and thrown for 1,397 more, the Midshipmen could manage just 168 yards on the ground against the Owls, far below their average of 327.5 per game. Worth is done for the season which means backup Zach Abey, who led Navy with 70 yards rushing last week, takes over. Navy also lost slotback Toneo Gulley (427 yards rushing). Dishan Romine (416) and Darryl Bonner (205) were also hurt in the Temple game and their status is unknown for this Saturday.
Army has improved to 6-5 this season under second-year head coach Jeff Monken. The Black Knights are second in the nation in rushing averaging 328.5 yards per game. Andy Davidson leads the team with 818 yards rushing and QB Ahmad Bradshaw adds 646 on the ground and 622 in the air. Army’s last win was a 26-17 victory in 2001.
Harry Bondi
Army / Navy Under 47.5
The under has cashed 9 STRAIGHT in the Army vs Navy game and with the injuries to Navy and Army’s pedestrian offense we see no reason this game won’t go UNDER as well.
SPORTS WAGERS
Tenn-Martin +13 over ILLINOIS ST.
When you consider the body of work of the Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks so far this season, there are two possible conclusions. This is either the bet of the year so far or the sucker bet of the year so far but sucker bets are usually reserved for marquee match-ups that take plenty of action of which this one will not. We’ll therefore consider it a strong play. The Skyhawks enter at 8-2 and they have compiled a resume of victories at home and on the road that is worth mentioning. The Skyhawks have won their last three since being tarred at Kentucky by a score of 111-76 on November 25th. Still, scoring 76 on the #1 team in the country is worth something and the Skyhawks did that despite turning it over 17 times. The Skyhawks threatened Ole Miss on their own court to kick off the 2016-17 season. UTM lost by just a three-ball and could have easily won that game. Since that loss, its only other defeat was the aforementioned Kentucky loss. Tennessee-Martin remains undefeated against opponents that are not from a Power Conference (in this case their two losses are against teams from the SEC). The Skyhawks have victories over Duquesne and they also beat a Florida Atlantic team that knocked off Ohio State.
Illinois State’s crown achievement so far is a home win against current #23 New Mexico. They also played TCU tough in a nine-point loss. Perhaps the market’s assessment of this contest is compelled by the Redbirds two games against quality competition, as there is no other explanation that could justify the points the Redbirds are spotting here. The Skyhawks are a better shooting team overall, they have a stronger bench and they even have an edge in the free-throw department, which could be key when taking back lumber like this. We also like that the Redbirds have played just seven games thus far while the Skyhawks have played 10 and are more battle tested. Illinois State should be weary of this Tennessee-Martin team, as they clearly have aspirations this year of playing in games of consequence come February and March and while the Redbirds have played a couple of decent teams, so, too, have the Skyhawks and they didn’t look out of place in any of them. Another big difference is we are getting massive points here. That is our prompt to step in.
ST. BONAVENTURE -5 over UNCW
This is really a good time of year to go after overvalued teams with great records and skewed numbers and we trust we found another one here in the Seahawks. UNC Wilmington is 7-1 and on a five game winning streak. The Seahawks attracted attention last March when they took a three-point lead into halftime against Duke in their first-round matchup at the big dance. The market is more aware of them this year, especially since they are putting up some sick offensive numbers. UNC Wilmington has scored 102, 97 and 126 points respectively in its last three outings. However, in its last game against the Division II Pfeiffer Falcons, the Seahawks allowed 113 points. The 2-6 Western Michigan Broncos also hung 92 on UNCW. The Seahawks 7-1 record is a bunch of skewed numbers on their home court. They have traveled twice this season with the first game being a victory against Eastern Kentucky in a game that went into OT and the latest being that aforementioned Western Michigan game. This season the Seahawks interior defense has been awful. UNCW is allowing opponents to shoot 54.8 percent on 2-point attempts (ranking 299th), which is a major problem that has been masked because of its record. They have also played a bunch of marshmallows and there is a price to pay for playing weak competition. That price should be paid up in full here.
First off, the Bonnies play in the tougher A-10 conference. Very quietly, St. Bonaventure tied Dayton and VCU atop the Atlantic 10 with a 14-4 record a year ago. Marcus Posley is the only significant loss for the Bonnies but they have three transfers from the Division I ranks stepping in. The Bonnies are 6-2 and have the best two players on the floor in this game by a wide margin in Jaylen Adams and Matt Mobley, who are averaging 23 and 21 points per game respectively. Denzel Gregg and Idris Taqqee are in the process of going from role players to stars. Last season, Gregg was named the conference’s sixth man of the year and that’s after limited playing time. Gregg is one of those rare players that disrupts everything his opponents are trying to do. The Bonnies are a very athletic, talented, versatile and deep team that should easily be able to exploit the Seahawks many flaws and win this one going away.
E. Illinois +126 over W. ILLINOIS
Make no mistake about it that these are two very weak basketball teams that might lose 20 games each this year. However, a win with one of these dregs pays the exact same as a win with Villanova or Notre Dame. The difference is that the oddsmakers pay more attention to marquee match-ups while games like this can easily slip under the radar.
Western Illinois has owned its crosstown rivals over the years and that is the main reason that the Leathernecks are the chalk here. Eastern Illinois has lost the last seven trips here. The market often puts emphasis on one teams' domination over another but we often do not, especially when it’s stretched out over time. In other words, a victory from four, five, six or seven years ago has zero impact on what happens here. It’s actually beyond ludicrous that bettors use these useless “trends” to make picks in order to rationalize their decisions. Well, with thousands and thousands of games played every year, trends develop over time and some stick out more than others. We can sometimes use those useless trends to our advantage by playing the better team at a price, which is precisely the situation here.
EIU is 5-4 overall and they also have a winning ATS record. The Panthers also knocked off the Leathernecks in Charleston (at home) just under a month ago. The Panthers defeated the Leathernecks by a score of 73-64. EIU has been the better program the past few years but they haven’t been able to get this monkey off their back until that aforementioned win very recently.
Western Illinois is getting progressively worse as the season wears on. They have lost three straight to Miami (Ohio), American and Chicago State. Its two wins this year in eight tries have come against two Division II schools in Oak Hills Christian and Crown College. In other words, the Panthers have yet to defeat a Division I school, yet here they are favored over a team that has four Division I wins in eight attempts. We get the better outfit that has broken the WIU winning streak in this rivalry series We also get to take back a tag against a team that has lost five of their last six overall. Regardless of EIU’s recent loss at Northern Kentucky, we have to like the Panthers’ competitive edge in this matchup, as they have the game plan, the better talent and the blueprint to beat this team again, just like they did less than a month ago.
SPORTS WAGERS
Ottawa +166 over LOS ANGELES
OT included. If you keep spotting big prices like this with average teams like the Kings, you are likely going to be watching the NHL playoffs from the rail (that’s an old horse racing term that refers to bettors at the track that were broke and watched the races while leaning against the rail). In any case, the Kings are coming off a loss at home against a Carolina team that played the night before in Anaheim and lost 6-5 in OT. The Kings have dropped three of their last four games with only victory over that span occurring against the Coyotes. Los Angeles is 13-13 overall and they are also 3-7 against top-10 teams but they are priced like they’re 10 games over .500.
Meanwhile, the Sens keep getting disrespected but they keep on winning games. Mike Condon is the new Hamburglar. All Condon has done is post a .945 save percentage and a 1.68 GAA since the Senators made the move of the year so far by picking him up. It’s not just goaltending though. Ottawa has tremendous talent up front. They absolutely and without question have more snipers than the offensively challenged Kings. The Sens sharpshooters were not producing at a high rate early on but they are connecting now with 11 goals in their past two games against Pittsburgh and San Jose. The Senators always create high quality chances and in that regard, they rank 13th in the league while the Kings rank 27th. However, over the past 10 games, Ottawa ranks second in the NHL in creating high quality chances while the Kings remain near the bottom of the league. Ottawa is 16-11 and 4-3 against top-10 teams. This truly is a fair fight but it is not priced as such and therefore we simply have to play the value.
Toronto +125 over BOSTON
OT included. The Bruins are 15-13 and while they were a possession monster early on in the year, we’re starting to see some regression out of them. There are other warning signs to regarding the B’s. First and foremost, Boston is 4-8 against top-10 teams and 4-10 against top-16 teams. That reveals that the B’s are beating on lower echelon teams. They have also lost two straight with six of their last seven games decided by one goal. One goal victories in the NHL are nice but they are mostly a product of luck. Two or more goal victories (or losses) are a much stronger indication of how good or bad a team really is. Of their 15 wins, only seven have been by two goals or more. However, of the Bruins 13 losses, eight have been by two or more goals and if Tuukka Rask wasn’t playing lights out, we might be talking about a Bruins team under .500.
The Maple Leafs have lost three straight but we cannot stress enough how misleading that is. The Leafs absolutely dominated the Wild in their last start by outshooting Minnesota 37-20. The third period looked like a 20-minute power-play. In Toronto’s loss to Vancouver last Saturday, they outshot the Canucks 40-24 and in their loss to Calgary that started this three-game losing streak, Toronto dominated them too by outshooting the Flames 39-29 and out-chancing them 22-13. You would be hard-pressed to find a team in better from than the hungry Maple Leafs right now. Only the Penguins have created more scoring chances this year than Toronto. The Maple Leafs are also cutting way down on chances against. Seriously, the Maple Leafs are on the verge of exploding. They are playing too well to keep losing and we’re positive that Mike Babcock is pleased with the performances lately. By contrast, the market outs more emphasis on results tahn performance and that is something we can take advantage of. Toronto’s dominance is about to pay off big time. If you bet one NHL game today, this should be it.
Vancouver +175 over FLORIDA
OT included. Great idea to fire Gerald Gallant after moving Dale Tallon from the GM’s position to the “just sit there and shut up” position. Since firing Gallant, the Panthers have responded with one win in six games. The Panthers are not getting destroyed by any stretch. They have been competitive and could have easily won at least three of those six games but a loss is a loss is a loss and with that, the pressure mounts on both the new coach and the players. Furthermore, the Panthers play in an empty arena, which only gives the visitor a bigger edge. The Panthers are coming off a 5-1 loss to the Penguins and now they’ll face what figures to be a motivated guest.
Life is good for the Canucks these days. Here’s a team that survived a 10-game losing streak that served them well. They have not lost consecutive games in over a month and they’re also coming off a 5-1 victory in Tampa Bay on Thursday. The trip to Sunrise is a short one and the Canucks figure to be ready to go. Enter Jack Skille and defenseman Erik Gudbranson, two former Panthers that obviously want this one badly but every other player on the Canucks bench also knows how important it is to those two guys. Ryan Miller might want to one up Roberto Luongo too. Not that the Canucks need motivation but those are couple more nuggets in their pocket. The Canucks remain grossly undervalued but all they do is keep improving and gaining more confidence. If Vancouver loses here, so be it but there is no chance we’re passing up prices like this on a Canucks' team in a much better state of mind and in much better form too. Huge overlay.
ASA
Warriors vs. Grizzlies
Play: Warriors -11½
We typically won't lay this many points on the road but you can find exceptions when Golden State is involved. The Warriors are 11-1 SU on the road this year and have a remarkable (#1 in NBA) average point differential of +12.6PPG. The have the best road offensive efficiency numbers in the league at +1.143 points per possession and the 4th best road defensive efficiency average allowing just 1.018PPP. Memphis on the other hand is 9-4 SU at home but have an average point differential of just .6 which is barely above league average. They have the 2nd best home defensive efficiency rating in the league but where they'll struggle today is on the offensive end of the court trying to keep up with Golden State. Memphis has the 4th worst OEFF rating at home averaging less than 1 point per possession. The Grizzlies are beat up right now too and have been starting a makeshift lineup due to injuries. The Warriors have won their last four road contests by an average of 21PPG and they've beaten the Grizzlies seven straight times by an average of 20PPG. This is simply a bad matchup for Memphis and Golden State will cruise to a huge win here.
Ray Monohan
Nashville -1.5 +175
The Predators take on Arizona Saturday night and the PL on Nashville has some value to work with.
This is one of those plays where there is potential for the bottom to fall out on Arizona here early on. The Coyotes have dropped 6 straight games and just haven't looked good on either side of the puck.
G Mike Smith has also struggled against Nashville in his career. He holds a GAA of 3.14, which bodes well for the Predators to score in bunches Saturday night.
Some trends to note. Predators are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a loss of 3 or more goals. Predators are 8-3 in their last 11 on 1 days rest.
This is a nice spot to take a chance and lay the goal and a half. Arizona just hasn't been good lately and the Predators have a chance to put up a big number here.
Vegas Butcher
Chicago Bulls -10.5
The Heat barely have enough warm bodies to fill out a minimum of 8-player rotation. And now to make matters worse, theyre’ on a b2b and 4in5 spot. Bulls came out of the game against the Spurs focused on ‘consistency’, as that’s all that Hoiberg spoke about afterwards. Hopefully we do see that kind of effort from the Bulls as they’re facing Wade’s former squad for the first time in Chicago. I think we will and if that’s the case, I expect a really strong shot for a cover.
Chris Jordan
I'm ready to improve on this 13-6 run with free picks, and it starts with my free college winner for Saturday, which is on Wisconsin minus the points against in-state rival Marquette, as the two renew their rivalry at the Bradley Center.
Make note, my free NBA winner is available in the appropriate area of this site.
For those familiar with the rivalry, you might remember it was days after last year's 57-55 win by Marquette, that legendary Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan stepped down.
With the 17th-ranked Badgers looking for revenge, I'm not so sure Marquette is going to stand a chance against the defensive-minded boys from Madison.
Wisconsin has won four straight and seven of eight. Its only loss came at the hands of then-No. 4 North Carolina, but the team is playing stalwart basketball right now. The Badgers have held six of their last eight opponents to season-low scoring totals. They also rank fourth in the country with a +14.5 rebounding margin.
This is a physical basketball team that has had this game circled and will be geared to snap Marquette's five-game winning streak.
Wisconsin, which has covered four straight as the chalk, has won three of the last five meetings in Milwaukee, and 11 of the last 20 games overall.
Take the Badgers here, as they get it done.
5* WISCONSIN
Bob Valentino
There's always some good to find in a loss, and I'm of the belief the Valparaiso Crusaders learned a lesson from their loss to top-ranked Kentucky before moving ahead to today game at Missouri State.
That being said, I think Valpo is in a good spot at a pick'em against the Bears, and that it will get the road win today.
The Crusaders arrived in Springfield on Thursday, and have had plenty of prep time - including some time to watch film from Wednesday's loss to Kentucky - and are reportedly confident for this game tonight.
They actually were able to see that they weren't playing well as a team, and need better communication, and camaraderie on the floor. I'm confident we'll see their best effort of the season tonight, as they've gotten rest and should be recuperated from their physical game with the Wildcats.
Missouri State has been hit or miss since winning its first three of the season, alternating losses and wins. At 5-2, the Bears look like a different team than the one that opened the season averaging 95.6 points in three games. Missouri State is averaging 69.75 in its last four, against DePaul, North Dakota State, Air Force and Southeast Missouri State.
That's a big difference from the games against Albama A&M, Jacksonville State and Fontbonne. This will be the toughest test of the season, and I like my chances with Valpo, which in addition to Kentucky, has played Oregon, Alabama, BYU, Ball State and Rhode Island.
Valpo is the better team here.
1* VALPARAISO
Brett Atkins
After failing in their revenge game earlier this week at SMU, look for Jamie Dixon's TCU Horned Frogs to bounce-back after their first loss in 9 games with a blowout win over the visiting Wofford Terriers.
The Terriers are just 3-6 straight up this season, but to their credit they do own an underdog cover against Miami-Florida, and an underdog cover at Colorado! Not too shabby, but I say this one gets away from them, as TCU should be pretty prickly after the SMU loss, and the Horned Frogs can indeed put the basketball through the hoop, as TCU is averaging almost 84 points per game on their home court in Fort Worth.
TCU has beefed up their record with a bunch of lower rung schools to open the season, and today is no exception. Back the Froggies to run the Terriers off the court by a large margin.
3* TCU
Eric Schroeder
I'm on a 5-2 run with complimentary releases, and look to improve with a free College Basketball winner for tonight.
My free winner for tonight is on the Pacific Tigers, minus the points against the Rider Broncs, who made the trek cross country for this non-conference clash in Stockton, Calif.
Now, I know the Tigers just lost at UMass, 72-48, in the Gotham Classic on Thursday in Amherst, Massachusetts, but their travel back to the west coast is going to be much easier to adjust to sine they're at home.
The Broncs are in after defeating Siena on Monday, 71-69, but Pacific is 3-0 at home. And I know the coaching staff is going to have the Tigers ready.
Tigers coach Damon Stoudamire and assistant Justin Hawkins are tyrants in keeping their players from becoming complacent, and will remind their troops they're mired in a two-game losing streak and will have reach deep for adrenaline.
Pacific is treating this game as a must-win. As it should.
Let's lay the home chalk for your free play.
3* PACIFIC
Chris Jordan
I'm ready to improve on this 13-6 run with free picks. Don't forget to get my free College Basketball winner, which is available in the appropriate area of this site.
Now, last night it was the defending NBA champs in dominating fashion, tonight it'll be the Chicago Bulls taking their swing at the Miami Heat.
I gave you the Cavaliers as my 600♦ Winner, but tonight the Bulls are my freebie, as once again, we're dealing with a team like the Miami Heat, who are dealing with injuries and can't seem to get into sync.
Miami is without far too many people right now, as it's been missing Justise Winslow, Josh Richardson and former Cavs guard Dion Waiters. Then, rookie Rodney McGruder twisted his ankle in Wednesday's loss at Atlanta, and though he started last night, he is still nursing that wheel. He was 3 of 10 from the field last night, including 0 for 4 from the 3-point line, over 36 minutes.
The Heat are a disappointing 7-16, and talks of them missing the playoffs have been a main topic of conversation. I honestly don't know what will be worse for this squad, playing last night in Cleveland, or having to visit Dwyane Wade and the Bulls tonight.
This is another bad spot for the Heat. I'm laying the points with the Bulls, who will win this by about 20.
3* CHICAGO