Carmine Bianco
FC Metz at Caen
Play: Caen -121
Not a great start to the L1 season for either of these sides as Caen are 1-2 and Metz 0-3 but we'll side with the homeside who play about .500 soccer at home against the bottom half of the L1 sides which you'll have to accomplish each year to avoid relegation and both these sides are likely to face that battle later in the season so a big 3 points at home early on is what Caen aim for against a Metz side that only picked up 14 road points last season.
Cal Sports
Colts at Steelers
Play: Under 41
With the Colt's Andrew Luck still not a participant Indianapolis has totaled 230 yards and 253 yards their first two games. The Steelers have nothing to prove on offense and have gone UNDER in 5 straight. Pittsburgh has only gained 226 yards and 189 yards their first two games and their defense which has allowed 12 PPG their L6 will be in shut-down mode again.
Bob Balfe
Rangers -115
Cole Hamels has been great this year issuing just one loss for his team as a starter. The Rangers are very good against left handed pitching so they should give Hamels the run support he needs to be victorious. The A’s starter Sean Manaea has been roughed up really bad his last few starts. This is a guy who has lost his control and Texas should take advantage.
SPORTS WAGERS
Oregon State +4 over COLORADO ST.
The Oregon State Beavers are a work in progress after winning just four games last season, but that was twice as many as they won in 2015 so head coach Gary Anderson is moving things in the right direction. The Beavers were never able to find any footing last season after a rash of injuries and inconsistent play forced them to rely on a quarterback by committee. Not so this season as Anderson wasted little time in naming redshirt junior Jake Luton, a junior college transfer from Ventura as his starting QB. The 6-foot-7 Luton was originally signed to Idaho and played four games for the Vandals in 2015, but it was at Ventura where he shined, passing for 3551 yards and 40 touchdowns while rushing for six more majors last season. The word from Beavers' camp is that Luton has developed some chemistry with versatile junior tight end Noh Togiai, with the pair connecting for three touchdowns during OSU’s first scrimmage. Togaiai missed most of the 2016 season with an injured ACL but figures to be a big part of the passing game in 2017. Luton isn’t the only transfer looking to make an impact as running backs Thomas Tyner and Trevorris Johnson, who transferred from Oregon and TCU, respectively, should add depth to an already solid ground attack. The Beavers running game was their strength last season. The return of breakout star Ryan Nall, who had 951 yards and 13-touchdowns a year ago and the very capable Atravis Peters round out a solid unit. Despite their makeshift lineups last season, the Beavers were able to finish strong with wins over Arizona and Oregon. Over their final four games, Oregon State was able to up its yards per play from 4.5 to 5.8. While the Beavers missed out on the Bowl season with just four wins, it’s also easy to forget they were in just about every game they played. Three of OSU’s eight losses last season came by a touchdown or less. Remember Oregon State’s 19-14 loss in Week 7 at home to Utah? The Beavers missed two field goals, gave up a safety and lost a fumble. Where it matters most, at the window, the Beavers were surprisingly generous to their backers covering nine of their 12 games in 2016 so they were sold short almost all of last season and they’re being sold short here too. There is a buzz coming from Fort Collins, Colorado and it has nothing to do with that state’s lax marijuana laws. After a 7-6 record in head coach Mike Bobo’s second season, many prognosticators and preseason publications have the Colorado State Rams taking the “next step” in the Mountain West. Senior Quarterback Nick Steven returns and while he impressed in the final seven games last season by completing 119-of-173 passes for 19 touchdowns and just three interceptions while guiding the Rams to a fourth straight bowl game, let’s not forget it took a devastating ACL injury to true freshman Colin Hill for Stevens to get his job back. It might sound funny to talk about the loss of a punter, but replacing one of the nation’s best in Hayden Hunt, with a true freshman in Ryan Stonehouse could potentially hurt the Rams here. Hunt was a real weapon for the Rams and one of only two players from CSU invited to the NFL combine. In addition to the hype surrounding the Rams, they’ll also open a brand new stadium. The school declared this inaugural game a sellout week’s ago. The Rams are a hot ticket and that should only add to the almost impossible expectations for this team. If CSU hopes to compete this season they’ll have to be fast out of the gate. Three of the Rams' four biggest games are in the first four weeks with trips to Colorado and Alabama and this season opener against Oregon State. The first game of any season brings with it a ton of hype, excitement, and attention from the market. This line opened with the Rams as a small -2 point favorite. All the chatter about this Rams’ team not only competing for the Mountain West Mountain Division but challenging San Diego State for the MW Conference title has driven this number to where it sits now. Don’t buy into the hype, as CSU is weak on both sides of the line and lack depth if their starters do not perform in the trenches. Add the pressure of opening a new stadium combined with lofty preseason expectorations and this game has “upset” written all over it. We’re taking the points.
There is a buzz coming from Fort Collins, Colorado and it has nothing to do with that state’s lax marijuana laws. After a 7-6 record in head coach Mike Bobo’s second season, many prognosticators and preseason publications have the Colorado State Rams taking the “next step” in the Mountain West. Senior Quarterback Nick Steven returns and while he impressed in the final seven games last season by completing 119-of-173 passes for 19 touchdowns and just three interceptions while guiding the Rams to a fourth straight bowl game, let’s not forget it took a devastating ACL injury to true freshman Colin Hill for Stevens to get his job back. It might sound funny to talk about the loss of a punter, but replacing one of the nation’s best in Hayden Hunt, with a true freshman in Ryan Stonehouse could potentially hurt the Rams here. Hunt was a real weapon for the Rams and one of only two players from CSU invited to the NFL combine. In addition to the hype surrounding the Rams, they’ll also open a brand new stadium. The school declared this inaugural game a sellout week’s ago. The Rams are a hot ticket and that should only add to the almost impossible expectations for this team. If CSU hopes to compete this season they’ll have to be fast out of the gate. Three of the Rams' four biggest games are in the first four weeks with trips to Colorado and Alabama and this season opener against Oregon State. The first game of any season brings with it a ton of hype, excitement, and attention from the market. This line opened with the Rams as a small -2 point favorite. All the chatter about this Rams’ team not only competing for the Mountain West Mountain Division but challenging San Diego State for the MW Conference title has driven this number to where it sits now. Don’t buy into the hype, as CSU is weak on both sides of the line and lack depth if their starters do not perform in the trenches. Add the pressure of opening a new stadium combined with lofty preseason expectorations and this game has “upset” written all over it. We’re taking the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
B.C. Lions -102 over OTTAWA
The Lions are 5-4 after a 21-17 home loss to the Stampeders but there is no shame in losing to the league's top team. B.C. has battled through injuries at the quarterback position this year, thus forcing veteran Travis Lulay into action. Starter Jonathon Jennings returned last week against Calgary. Together the B.C. quarterbacks have combined for 2779 touchdown passes while receivers Bryan Burnham and Manny Arceneaux have combined for over 1000 yards and 15 touchdown passes. On the ground, the Leos are averaging 96.4 yards per game lead by Jeremiah Johnson. The “other” “JJ” leads the way with 487 yards and five touchdowns. Offensive options are not an issue on this team and their defense is without question the superior unit here too. A response by B.C. is in order here after they were smoked by the Roughriders last week.
The Redblacks got their first win in a month last week with a 37-18 win over the Tiger-Cats and now they’re evenly priced against the Lions? Hamilton is a mess and the Redblacks weren't even very good in that game after being held to five field goals in the first half. Their defense is giving up 413 yards per game with the opposition moving at will against this bunch all season long. This Ottawa defense should provide plenty of opportunities for the Lions to put up points. Earlier this season, the Lions had a brutal set of road games that forced them to play three straight games on the East Coast. They went 3-0. Ottawa is 0-5 against the West this season. The talent discrepancy between the East and West is huge again this season. You don't have to look any further than the Redblacks place in the standings. With a win, Ottawa jumps into second place in the East, which would be good enough to host a home playoff game while the Lions are in the thick of it in the loaded West. After Saskatchewan's blowout win in Edmonton last night, the Leos loss in Regina doesn't look so bad and their win over the Roughriders the week prior in which they outgained Saskatchewan by 200 yards might carry a little more weight than first thought. The Lions have a massive edge in the coaching department too. Win or lose, we’re confident that we’re going with the best of it here and will play if accordingly.
Toronto +10 over CALGARY
The Stamps have been the class of the league for a long time and are capable of putting up big points at will. They've owned the Argonauts with seven straight wins with many of those games being totally lopsided, including earlier this season in Toronto. The Stamps took out the Boatmen on Toronto’s turf with a 41-24 victory as just a six-point road favorite and now they are being asked to cover just 10 points. However, that 41-24 victory over Toronto was much prettier on paper, as Calgary outgained the Argos by a mere 28 yards. Calgary has already lost to Montreal this year and was fortunate to get a tie and a win against Ottawa. The Stamps could easily be a three-time loser to East squads this season but because they have won four in a row and are 6-1-1 overall, you will pay a hefty price to back them here. Calgary is not even close to dominating games like the media and this tag suggests they are.
Usually when a team wins 38-6 in the CFL there is an overreaction next time out. That is unless said team is playing in Calgary. That's the situation the Argonauts find themselves in this week. With the return of Ricky Ray, the Argos destroyed the Alouettes in a game that wasn't even as close as the lopsided score would suggest. When in the lineup, Ray has been great this season throwing for 2798 yards, 14 touchdowns, and five interceptions. What we’re seeing with the Argos is a team coming together very quickly with growing confidence. Their defense has been outstanding this year, the offense barely broke a sweat last week and the coaching staff is perhaps the best in the business. Toronto can and likely will compete wire-to-wire here. This is a close-knit bunch that believes strongly in what the coaches are preaching and it’s paying off. Aside from that, this line is an insult and is locker room material. Don’t be surprised to see the Argonauts win outright here but these points are too generous to pass up on.
SPORTS WAGERS
OAKLAND +100 over Texas
Cole Hamels’ pedigree is as good as any active pitcher in the game right now. He’s a World Series winner, a playoff winning pitcher, he’s finished top-5 in Cy Young voting six times in his career and he’s had a long and very successful career. This year, Hamels is 9-1 with a 3.42 ERA but it’s all a mirage. In 105 frames, Hamels has a weak BB/K split of 33/65. In his last start covering seven full innings, Hamels struck out three batters. He’s been the fortunate recipient of the major’s lowest BABIP among qualified starters at .230. Hamels’ winning ways are not sustainable. He’s posted the worst control and command of his career with a notable drop in first-pitch strike rate. It’s also the first time that his skills have fallen below league average and when you add in ERA/xERA (3.42/4.81) difference, he's at risk for ROI regression.
Sean Manaea fell off a cliff recently to post a 17.27 ERA over his last four starts. That looks really ugly on paper but we’ll attribute it to a bit of fatigue, perhaps a hidden injury and a lot of bad luck too. However, in his last start against the dangerous Astros, Manaea got back on his horse and looked so much better when he went six full and surrendered just six hits and three runs against the dangerous Astros. This is a starter that is producing whiffs with ease. His change-up (25% of pitches) and slider (20%) have been dominant, as each has produced a 20% swing and miss rate. We’re seeing an odd combination of fortunate hit %, unfortunate strand %. On the aggregate, his xERA and overall skills peg Manaea as a better pitcher than his surface stats. We have tabbed Manaea as "one of the best breakout targets in the game," which makes complete sense given his electric swing-and-miss rate, his groundball tilt and favorable home park. The Rangers bats cooled off last night and now we’re getting the better pitcher at home, plus a price but the market believes that Hamels is the bargain here. That provides us with this very good opportunity.
N.Y. Mets +186 over WASHINGTON
Robert Gsellman is hit and miss. In 88 innings this year covering 16 starts, Gsellman is 5-5 in 16 with a 5.65 ERA but his xERA is a full run lower at 4.62. He went 4-2 with a 2.42 ERA with 42 K in 45 IP for the Mets last year. That was a strong debut for a groundball-inducing rookie in a playoff chase with a K-rate higher than the 6 K’s/9 he posted in his 207 innings in the upper minors. Somewhere in between last year and this year is what we can expect from Gsellman moving forward but whatever happens here, we can live with because this wager is all about taking back a massive price against both the Nationals and their starter.
Gio Gonzalez is coming off a 6.2 inning, five-hit, one-run gem against the Padres. He’s 11-5 with a 2.39 ERA and a BB/K split of 62/150 over 162 frames. Gonzalez is coming off five wins in a row in which he dominated on paper by allowing a mere three runs and 20 hits over 34.2 frames during that stretch. One of those victories in Miami was an eight-inning, one hitter. That one is noteworthy because Gonzalez grew up in that area and had a ton of family and friends there. He was also very good friends with the now deceased former ace of the Marlins, Jose Fernandez, and beforehand he dedicated the game to him. It was a highly emotional night. Thus, Gio Gonzalez has been going too good for too long for a starter that has plenty of holes in his profile. Gonzalez’s swing and miss rate over those five wins was 7% and it is just 8% on the year. His swing and miss rate does not support his strikeout rate,. His velocity is also down from 90.1 MPH in May and June to 89.1 in July and August. Gonzalez has the second highest strand rate in MLB at 85.7%. He also has one of the lowest BABIP at .241. Gio Gonzalez is not close to being as good as his shiny ERA suggests. He’s been perhaps the most fortunate pitcher in the majors with unsustainable luck in every luck-driven statistic. Aside from that, have you seen the Nationals play without Turner, Harper, Werth and Adam Eaton? They look more like the Phillies but they are priced like all those players are not on the rack. Big time overlay here.
BRANDON LEE
Mariners vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -1½
New York is worth a look here on the run line in Saturday's showdown against the Mariners. Yankees will send out Sonny Gray, who is due for some good fortunate after going a 1-3 in 4 starts, despite a strong 3.13 ERA since coming over from the A's. Gray has enjoyed pitching against Seattle, who he owns a 2.86 ERA and 1.152 WHIP in 10 starts against. Mariners will send out Yovani Gallardo, who has a 8.59 ERA and 1.774 WHIP in his last 3 starts and a 6.32 ERA in 7 career starts against New York. Gallardo has also struggled with keeping the ball in the park, giving up 2 homers in each of his last 3 starts and 21 in 20 starts overall this season.
MATT JOSEPHS
Twins vs. Blue Jays
Play: Over 9
I fell short on my over in this one yesterday but I'll go back to the well on Saturday. Dillon Gee makes his second straight start for the Twins. He's allowed five runs and 10 hits over his two outings as starter so far with the other coming earlier this season. He'll face a Toronto team whose lineup is pretty much intact this afternoon with a few little changes. They got 10 hits yesterday but only one run. Marco Estrada is 5-8 with a 5.07 ERA in 26 starts for the Jays with 14 of them going over the total. Estrada has allowed nine runs and 15 hits over his last two starts. The righty has a 4.04 ERA in six career starts against Minnesota. The Twins are averaging six runs per game over their last seven and are in decent form as a unit. Both bullpens are highly mediocre. I suspect this one goes over the total.
CHIP CHIRIMBES
Pirates vs. Reds
Play: Reds -113
Pittsburgh was expected to contend for a NL playoff spot but have disappointed their followers and are now 7-games under the breakwater mark having lost 10 of their last 13 games. Cincinnati will start Luis Castillo (2-6, 3.45 ERA) who has had three quality starts in his last four outings and is facing Pittsburgh for the first time. Gerrit Cole (10-8, 4.16) is 0-6 lifetime against Cincinnati with a 5.14 ERA in Nine starts.
Will Rogers
San Francisco vs. Arizona
Pick: San Francisco +114
The set-up: Paul Goldschmidt hit a three-run HR in Arizona's 4-3 victory over the Giants on Friday, securing the third 30-HR, 100-RBI season of his career. Goldschmidt (30 HRs & 101 RBI) has eight HRs and 23 RBI this month, giving himself a chance to surpass his previous career bests of 36 HRs and 123 RBI set in 2013. The D'backs' win gives them a 1 1/2 game lead over the Rockies for the NL's top wild card and puts them five games clear of the NL playoff 'cut line.' San Francisco has dropped four of its last six overall, is an awful 21-43 away from home and owns MLB's worst overall moneyline mark at minus-$3049.
The pitching matchup: Madison Bumgarner (3-5 & 2.87 ERA) continues what has been a 'nightmare' season for him on Saturday, opposed by Arizona's Taijuan Walker (6-7 & 3.66 ERA). Bumgarner's season was interrupted by dirt-bike accident in April. He is 3-2 with a 2.81 ERA in eight outings since coming off the disabled list back in July but despite a 2.87 ERA in 12 starts this season, the Giants are 3-9, with his moneyline mark of minus-$1148 ranking just ahead of teammate Matt Moore's minus-$1159. Bumgarner is 9-8 with a 2.58 ERA in 28 career appearances (27 starts / team is 15-12) against Arizona, including 0-1 with a 3.21 ERA in two 2017 outings. Walker is win-less in his last 10 starts (0-4) since defeating Colorado back on June 21. He is 1-1 with a 4.76 ERA in three starts against the Giants this season and 2-1 with a 3.75 ERA in four career outings (teams are 2-2).
The pick: Bumgarner is an outstanding pitcher suffering from a lack of support and luck. He's allowed only nine earned runs while striking out 36 in 38 innings (2.13 ERA) in his last six starts. Meanwhile, the D'backs are just 3-7 in Walker's 10-game win-less stretch. Let's 'vote' for Bumgarner in this one.
Neil The Greek
Rice vs. Stanford
Play: Rice +31
If any of you guys are sick like me, and stay up to watch each game even on the West Coast, then you will agree to what I'm about to say. Christian McCaffrey was the steal of the draft even at number 8. He was everything on offense for the Cardinal last year. Even when teams knew it was coming, they still could not stop it. And yes, the offensive line was a part of that, but they played terrible at times, and CM still made people look stupid. He will be missed in a big way. I don't believe in either QB they have. When you have 2 or 3 QBs, you have none. Chryst will be the starter which I do not like. Stanford will not show what they have, and will win this one like they always win these type of games...ugly.
Jeffrey James
Rice vs. Stanford
Play: Rice +30.5
Have to love this ton of points here with Rice since the Owls have revenge from a 41-17 loss to Stanford last season (Rice covered) and this game is being played in Australia so no way that Stanford will be interested in this game. They are having a great experience and favored by 30 points. Rice will be way more motivated and even though they don't have the athletes to run with Stanford they will be able to keep this game within this super high number.
Chris Jordan
My free play for Saturday is on the Pittsburgh Steelers over the Indianapolis Colts, as I think the Black and Gold are going to dominate and annihilate the injury-riddled Colts.
While the Steelers will look much more closer to how they will come together in Week 1, putting numerous starters on the field for extended playing time, the Colts are still struggling with what to do with Andrew Luck.
Big Ben Roethlisberger is set to make his preseason debut, and I love the myriad of receiving weapons he'll have to choose from. The 14-year veteran quarterback should have a decent game for Pittsburgh, providing enough momentum for the Steelers, who have won their first two games.
The Colts, who are 0-2 in preseason play, will lean on quarterback quarterback Scott Tolzien, who lost 28-7 last fall on Thanksgiving, to these same Steelers.
Luck is reportedly in danger of missing Indy's Week 1 showdown against the Los Angeles Rams, as he continues to recover from offseason shoulder surgery. Until he returns, the offense will be shaky.
Take Pittsburgh
1* STEELERS
OC Dooley
Brewers +1.5 -140
Due to injuries this is essentially a "bullpen: game for the mighty Dodgers who have tabbed Ross Stripling out of the pen to start and he will be working against Milwaukee's surprising Zach Davies who ERA in the past 11 starts (2.65) is miniscule. While the offense of the Brewers has had recent struggles they have the ability with tonight's starter to keep the game close which opens the door to an UNDEFEATED angle that dates back to September of 2015. Milwaukee is UNSCATHED (11-0 record) on the RUN LINE when Davies starts as a "road underdog" and is coming off a prior "quality" outing