Randall the Handle
Falcons (1-1) at Saints (0-2)
The only thing missing from this one will be Usain Bolt. Expected to be a track meet, good arguments can be made for both sides as each has quick striking offences while both team’s defences are under fire. Prefer to lean to home side with desperation Saints and the experienced arm of Drew Brees. Brees knows how to take advantage of this opponent with four straight 300 yard games against the Falcs. Atlanta travels for second time in as many weeks and after knocking off the Raiders last Sunday, it might be too tall of an order to compete here. Falcons also bankroll busters with just three covers in past 14 regular season games. Saints won both meetings last year, including 10-point win at this venue. TAKING: SAINTS –3
Jack Jones
New York Mets -118
The New York Mets own the first wild card spot in the National League if the season were to end today. They lead the Giants by one game and the Cardinals by 1.5 games, so there is still a lot of work today. Look for them to take down the Marlins here Monday to inch closer.
Bartolo Colon remains one of the most underrated starters in baseball. He is 14-7 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.191 WHIP in 31 starts, including 1-0 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.813 WHIP in his last three. Colon is 7-4 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.146 WHIP in 13 career starts against Miami as well.
Adam Conley make his first start since August 13 as he returns from the disabled list today and will certainly be on a pitch count. He has last seen going 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.385 WHIP in his last three starts. He'll be up against a red-hot Mets lineup that has scored a combined 44 runs the past four days.
The Mets are 25-7 in Colon's last 32 starts during Game 1 of a series. New York is 10-1 in Colon's last 11 Monday starts. The Mets are 23-11 in their last 34 games overall. New York is 5-1 in Colon's last six starts vs. Marlins.
Dave Price
Houston Astros -117
The Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners are fighting to stay alive in the wild card race. I'm going to back the home team at a generous price here in the Astros. Collin McHugh is the reason why. He is 6-4 with a 3.76 ERA in 14 home starts this season, including 3-0 with a 1.53 ERA in his last 3 starts. McHugh has owned the Mariners, going 9-3 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in 12 lifetime starts. He hasn't lost to the Mariners in 2016, going 4-0 with a 1.08 ERA in four starts while giving up only 3 earned runs in 25 innings. Hisashi Iwakuma is 1-4 with a 5.81 ERA in his last 6 starts against the Astros, giving up 20 earned runs in 31 innings. McHugh is 12-1 (+11.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
SPORTS WAGERS
Oakland -104 over L.A. ANGELS
Interesting game that sees one pitcher, Jered Weaver, likely pitching for the final time in his career while Oakland's pitcher, Sean Manaea is just getting stsrted. The happiest person in the world after today will be Arturo Moreno, who will never have to cringe again when he signs his name on Jered Weaver’s pay check. Weaver has remarkably won 12 games this year with an oppBA of .302, a WHIP of 1.48, a BB/K split of 50/100 in 173 innings, a GB/FB split of 28%/48% and an xERA of 6.58. In this our 16th year of posting picks on the internet, we have never seen under the hood numbers as bad as Jered Weaver’s are this year. We are thrilled to fade him for the very last time in an evenly priced game.
Sean Manaea won't carry strong numbers heading into next season but he's a great example of the value of looking at command sub-indicators. Manaea's are some of the most promising of any young starter with a 13.1% swing and miss rate, a 65% first-pitch strike rate and 33% ball%. They give him significant breakout potential heading into 2017. Manaea has 16 K’s over his last 14 innings with an xERA of 2.28. He’s allowed just 10 hits over his last 21 innings covering four starts and he has not allowed an earned run in his last three appearances either. Jered Weaver and Sean Manaea are priced the same today. Pick one.
N.Y. Yankees +171 over TORONTO
The Yanks have gone cold and now go from contender to spoiler, a role they could thrive in for the final game of this series. At the end of the day it still comes down to the same thing, which is Toronto being grossly overpriced daily. Luis Severino did not fulfill the breakout potential he had coming into the 2016 season, mostly because he didn't have a third pitch to pair with his fastball and slider. Interestingly, Severino's change-up was a good pitch for him in 2015 (17.6% swing and miss %); it lost a lot of effectiveness in 2016 (8.3% swing and miss rate) so refining that pitch could make all the difference in the world. Severino will now pitch here with no pressure on him to win. He’s just 22-years-old and he has time. He also has nasty stuff when he’s throwing well. Taking back a tag like the one offered here, we’ll roll the dice with Severino because of that aforementioned nasty stuff.
J.A. Happ is only one of two pitchers to win 20 games this season. Happ won his 20th in his last start against the Angels, which is the only time he’s ever won or come close to winning 20. Happ’s previous best season (in terms of wins) was back in 2009 when he won 12 games. His ERA has always hovered around the 4.50 range so this year is not the norm, it’s an anomaly. Happ’s xERA over his last 10 starts is 4.66. His 38%/27%/35% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate over that same span reveals nothing but a high risk profile. If Happ wins here, great, we’ll be first in line to shake his hand but he’s an average pitcher that is having a luck-fuelled career year.
HOUSTON -1½ +172 over Seattle
Hisashi Iwakuma is another pitcher among many this season that has rode a wave of extreme good fortune to some positive results. Some GM is going to see the results and pay this stiff 10M per and then wonder what the hell happened after he wins four games in 30 starts and posts and ERA near six. Iwakuma failed a physical with the Dodgers last off-season. he’s throwing 88 MPH on his best day while inducing a mere 7% swing and miss rate. The pinpoint accuracy isn’t there either, as he’s not getting as many first-pitch strikes, resulting in a few more walks than usual. A high number of fly balls turns out to be one of his biggest issues. The roof is going to cave in on Iwakuma and if it doesn’t happen here, you can count on it happening next year. Rarely dominant with a few disasters, Iwakuma is the epitome of a middle of the road starter. His chances of getting whacked are great.
Meanwhile, Collin McHugh is a beast in his own barn. McHugh has only pitched twice at Minute Maid since August 8. In those two starts against Oakland and the Cubbies, McHugh was tagged for a mere four hits and one run while striking out 11 in 11 innings. Since the start of August, McHugh’s base skills were some of the best in the AL with 9.7 K’s/9, 2.0 BB’s/9 and 47%% groundballs. His command sub-indicators were just as good: 11.1% swing and miss %, 73% first-pitch strike % and 34% ball%. On paper, it’s a close matchup and is priced as such. Underneath the surface, it’s a mismatch in Houston’s favor so that’s how we’ll play it.
Bruce Marshall
Marlins +120
Understandable for the Marlins to be distracted after the tragic Jose Fernandez news this weekend. And we usually do not like to talk about teams winning one for a fallen comrade, trivializing a life lost into the context of a pick on the game. But nonetheless we could see a transcendent effort tonight from Miami. Marlins starter Adam Conley makes his first start since August 13 as he comes off of the DL for tonight's game.
Rays -1.5 +130
Chisox starter James Shields continues to self-immolate, destroyed again in his last start on Tuesday vs. the Phils, and now with a 7.11 ERA with the Pale Hose since being acquired in June. No surprise if Tampa Bay jumps on Shields and provides cushion for the capable Drew Smyly, behind whom the Rays have won 7 of his last ten starts. Smyly has pitched decently over his last two starts vs. the Yankees and Blue Jays, allowing just 3 runs and nine hits over 11 2/3 IP (2.31 ERA).
Bob Balfe
Mets -120
It’s a very sad time for the Marlins, MLB and Cuban Americans. Jose Fernandez was bigger than baseball which says a lot about him because he was one of the best pitchers in the game. The loss of Fernandez is going to really hurt this team in the long run. These are not good times for Miami as they had a real shot at making the playoffs this year and now have faded. I hate to do it, but I have to go with the Mets here. Colon is the much better starter and this team needs to keep winning to get a playoff shot. I just don’t see Miami being ready to play baseball today. Can you blame them?
Jeff Benton
Monday's freebie is the Nats on the Run Line over the D-Backs.
We can start with the fact the Nationals have won all 3 of this year's meetings against the Diamondbacks, and they have won them all by 5 runs or more.
In fact, the Nats are 7-3 in the series the past 10 showdowns, with 6 of the 7 wins coming by at least 2 runs or better.
Yes, the Nationals have clinched their division, but they still need to win in order to gain home-field for the upcoming N.L.D.S.
Tanner Roark gets the ball for Dusty's team, and stands at 15-9 for the season, Better still, over his last 3 starts, Roark's ERA is a scant 0.90.
Meanwhile, Arizona starter Archie Bradley has been hit hard pretty much all season with an ERA over 5, and over his last 3 starts, it stands at 6.43.
Same old, same old, Nationals notch another lopsided win over the Snakes here in 2016.
Washington on the Run Line.
4* WASHINGTON -1.5
Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is on the Cleveland Indians over the Detroit Tigers, and in this game I want you listing both scheduled starters: Corey Kluber and Buck Farmer.
The price is high, but it's worth the investment, as Kluber is going to dominate the Tigers lineup.
Cleveland's ace right-hander who is an American League Cy Young Award contender, is 10-1 with a 2.32 ERA in his past 14 outings, and rolls in with a perfect 3-0 mark and 1.88 ERA versus Detroit this season. He steps to the hill after striking out nine, allowing two runs and laboring over 6 1/3 innings versus defending World Series champion Kansas City last Wednesday.
He'll easily outclass Farmer, who went 5-6 with a 4.32 ERA in 20 starts for Triple-A Toledo. There's not a lot of experience with the right-hander, so you can expect to see the Indians' explosive lineup to do some damage.
2* INDIANS
Scott Delaney
There's something to be said about a team that closes out a season playing with pride, with a little purpose. That's something we're not seeing from the bottom of the American League East, a division that will have three representatives in the postseason.
Not on that list will be the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays. Both are mired in brutal losing streaks - the Yankees four straight and eight of 10, while the Rays have lost three in a row and seven of 10.
My free play for Monday night is on the Chicago White Sox over the Rays, as the Pale Hose will take advantage of a dismal Tampa Bay lineup that ranks in the bottom of the league in runs scored on the road.
Chicago has won two straight and is 41-33 at home this season. The Sox just took two in a row from the division-leading Indians, in Cleveland. So there is a little momentum to embrace there.
Take the White Sox here, as they roll past Tampa Bay.
4* WHITE SOX
Bob Valentino
My free play is on the Houston Astros tonight, minus a small price against the Seattle Mariners in A.L. West action. I also want you listing both scheduled starters: Collin McHugh and Hisashi Iwakuma.
McHugh has dominated the Mariners during his career, going 9-3 with a 3.96 ERA - including a 4-0 mark and 1.08 ERA in four starts this season. Most recently, overall, McHugh is 5-0 with a 4.25 ERA in his last seven starts - all of which have been Astros’ wins.
I like him to neutralize Seattle's lineup and dominate.
3* ASTROS
Brad Wilton
My comp play for Monday will be the Houston Astros to edge the Seattle Mariners in a game that does indeed have Wild Card implications.
Houston has controlled things in the season series, as the Astros bring an positive 8-2 mark the last 10 series meetings into this key meeting at Minute Maid Park for Monday night.
Collin McHugh has been on-fire for the 'Stros down the stretch, winning 3 straight decisions, while going 5-0 over his last 6 starts. His ERA stands at 1.53 over his 3 straight wins, and his career numbers against the Mariners - 9-3 overall, 4-0 this year with a 1.08 ERA in 4 starts! - suggest the Astros have the edge over the M's.
Seattle will start Hisashi Iwakuma who is just 5-6 for his career against the Astros, and is 1-2 this season with an ERA of 4.24.
Based on the strength of their series numbers, and the decided pitching edge, tonight I side with the Astros to get the win over the Mariners.
3* HOUSTON
Harry Bondi
NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Atlanta
In what will be one of the lowest rated Monday Night Games in history with the Presidential debate on opposite it, we will side with New Orleans, who could easily be 2-0 instead of 0-2. Saints lost to both the Raiders and Giants in the games final minute but they have done well against Atlanta winning 15 of their last 20 games, including four of the last five meetings in the Superdome. Atlanta’s defense has been a sieve giving up 31 points to Tampa Bay and 28 to Oakland and that will mean trouble for them against Brees who has played well for the Saints this season throwing for five td’s and zero interceptions. He will face a depleted Atlanta secondary and Falcons front 7 that has only recorded one sack this season. If you can’t pressure Brees, he will carve you up and he has a history of doing that to Atlanta passing for over 300 yards in each of his past four meetings with the birds. Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 division games and again tonight the Saints come marching in!
OC Dooley
Mets / Marlins Over 8
The Marlins for most of the campaign were on the cusp of a Wildcard Playoff spot due to an improved offense, but a lack of overall pitching ultimately was too much for the club to overcome. Miami's only solid arm was Jose Fernandez (1.49 career HOME ERA) who tragically lost his life yesterday thus robbing baseball of a true young star. Fernandez ended up have the third-best STRIKEOUT RATIO (12.49 per nine innings) in baseball HISTORY right behind Hall of Famers Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson. While Fernandez was slated to be tonight's starter his replacement Adam Conley has not been on the mound for SIX WEEKS due to injury. The loss of Fernandez is a major blow to the tight-knit Cuban community and in an emotional atmosphere tonight I expect Giancarlo Stanton (Marlins) and Yeonis Cespedes (Mets) to do something special. Also keep an eye out for infielder Jose Reyes who once wasa member of the Marlins roster the year Miami moved into a new ballpark. Here is an approaching 80-PERCENT NATIONAL LEAGUE SYSTEM (45-12 the past five years with a total between 7-and-8' runs) which takes clubs like the Mets with a team batting average of ".250 or worse" collectively OVER the spot, after scoring 8+ runs in consecutive games. The Mets have actually scored a combined 35 runs in the past three outings