SPORTS WAGERS
DETROIT +104 over Oakland
Yes indeed folks, the Tigers have bottomed out, just like we predicted in our season win total wager (under) before the season began. The Tigers have cleaned house and the result is a bunch of September call-ups and previous bench players getting some playing time. That’s not a bad thing, as these young players trying to make a name for themselves bring enthusiasm, energy and focus to the park whether it’s April or September. The Tigers whacked the South Side yesterday 12-0 to earn a split of the four game series in which they scored 26 runs over the four games. That’s not bad at all and now the Tigers will get another shot a struggling pitcher here.
Jharel Cotton has a weak BB/K split of 52/99 in 124 frames. That’s a horrible ratio that has led to a horrible 1.48 WHIP this season and an even worse WHIP of 1.57 over his last 10 starts. Cotton also has a 51% first-pitch strike rate over that span. Rarely can a pitcher succeed at this level when he’s constantly behind in the count. Cotton’s underlying numbers are right in line with his actual numbers so there are no pending improvements on the way. He has an ERA/xERA of 5.81/5.83. He has a horrible 22%/32% dominant start/disaster start split and those numbers are even worse when you consider that he pitchers half his games at a hitters park. Pitching for a team that plays poorly on the road most of the time, Jharel Cotton and the A’s cannot be favored on the road against Buck Farmer and the Tigers.
Buck Farmer’s 6.62 ERA has him grossly undervalued here. He’s another great example of why we don’t buy surface stats and he’s also a great example of how surface stats influence the market. While there are no guarantees of anything in one baseball game, we’re here to assure you that Buck Farmer is a quality pitcher that is miles ahead of Jharel Cotton in their progress. Farmer’s poor surface stats are the result of noting but pure bad fortune. In 35 innings, Farmer has struck out 38 batters and walked 13. That’s 9.7 K’s/9. That has the full support of his 13% swing and miss rate. In his last start, Farmer’s groundball rate was 56%. He tallied a 3.26 xERA, 8.3 K’s/9 and a 47% groundball rate in 465 minor league innings (mostly Triple-A) as a starter around numerous brief MLB stints. Since 2013, Farmer has thrown 206.1 minor league innings and posted a 3.05 ERA and a 9.3 K’s/9. Strikeouts and groundball % is the starting point of a very playable skill set and with an xERA of 3.11 in his last start and an overall xERA of 4.19 over 114 MLB innings, Buck Farmer is trending the right way. He and the Tigers should be favored here. That’s value.
Jack Jones
Minnesota at New York
Play: New York -150
The New York Yankees are only three games behind the Boston Red Sox for first place in the AL East. The Yankees have gone 7-2 in their last nine games overall and are playing great baseball coming into this series with the Minnesota Twins.
Jaime Garcia has come up big down the stretch for the Yankees, going 0-1 with a 2.63 ERA in his last three starts. Garcia has faced the Twins once in his career, pitching 6 shutout innings for a 0.00 ERA. I look for him to shut them down here at home Monday night.
Ervin Santana has come back down to reality in the second half of the season after a very lucky first half. And Santana doesn't enjoy facing the Yankees, going 6-9 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.522 WHIP in 19 career starts against them.
The Yankees are 60-33 in home night games over the last two seasons. The Twins are 3-9 in their last 12 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Yankees are 5-0 in their last five games following a loss. New York is 7-1 in its last eight vs. a right-handed starter.
Rob Vinciletti
Arizona at San Diego
Pick: Arizona
Arizona has won 9 of 11 on Mondays and they take on a San Diego team that has lost 8 of 11 as a home dog in this range. The Padres have Perdomo pitching and Arizona has won all 3 against home this year. Even worse for San Diego is that league wide, home dogs off a road dog win that scored 4 or less runs are 2-15 vs an opponent that comes in off a road favored loss and had 5+ hits like Arizona. Look for the Diamondbacks to take the opener.
John Martin
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play:Red Sox +112
The Boston Red Sox have a lot more to play for right now than the Baltimore Orioles. The Red Sox are fighting to win the AL East, while the Orioles have gone 2-9 in their last 11 games to fall out of wild card contention. Doug Fister has been at his best on the road this year, going 2-1 with a 3.28 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in four road starts. He has given up 2 earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. The Red Sox are 9-4 in their last 13 meetings in Baltimore. Wrong team favored here.
Dave Price
Diamondbacks vs Padres
Play: Padres +140
The San Diego Padres have actually been a good bet at home this year. They are 39-35 (+10) units at home consistently cashing as dogs. The Arizona Diamondbacks are kind of stuck in no man's land here as they basically have a playoff spot locked up and are 5 games ahead of the Rockies for the 1st wild card spot. Don't expect them to be too hungry these last few weeks. Patrick Corbin is 5-8 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 14 road starts this year for the Diamondbacks. Corbin is 5-5 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 10 lifetime starts vs. San Diego. He was rocked for 8 earned runs and 14 base runners in 4 1/3 innings in his last start against the Padres on September 8th just 10 days ago.
Winning Angle
New York Giants -3
Detroit has lost 84 of the last 146 games against the spread coming off a win in their last game and they have lost 113 of the last 197 road games against the spread. Detroit has lost 74 of the last 138 games against the spread when playing as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and they have lost 50 of the last 85 games against the spread after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in their last game.
Bruce Marshall
Dodgers at Phillies
Pick: Phillies +1.5
Not usually a recommendation to go against Clayton Kershaw, especially as he seeks his tenth straight win on the road. But the Phils plus the extra run on the RL might provide the best of all worlds, as Kershaw has struggled in his last couple of starts, and likely does not go past 5 or 6 innings, meaning what has been a shaky LA bullpen in front of closer Kenley Jansen will probably be required tonight. Not much case for Phils starter Jake Pivetta based upon his recent outings, but if he provides 4 of 5 serviceable innings, Pete Mackanin can at least be able to turn this into a bullpen chess match with Dave Roberts.
Jack Brayman
Short and sweet freebie: take the Over in the N.L. Central showdown between the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates.
Look this one is about the pitchers, as both won't last past the fifth, with the toal nearing the prescribed number by then.
Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are Brent Suter and Jameson Taillon. If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play.
Let's start with Suter, who is getting closer to a full workload after throwing 50 pitches in his last outing, his second abbreviated start and third appearance since returning from a rotator cuff injury. The southpaw should be up to 70-75 pitches for this game, but it's a work in progress, and he will struggle against this lineup.
Taillon allowed six runs over 4.2 innings against the Chicago Cubs on Sept. 7, his most recent start before taking an extended period of rest. While I'm sure the Pirates are hoping that time off will benefit him, as he's posted a 7.17 ERA in 11 second-half starts.
I like this one to soar.
2* Brewers-Pirates Over
Tommy Brunson
Monday night comp play will be the runs to add up in the Mets-Marlins game.
The Mets have played Over the total in 5 of their last 7 games, and starter Matt Harvey has not been at all impressive since returning from the disabled list, as he has been shellacked for 14 September runs in his 10-plus innings pitched!
The Over has gone 2-0-1 in those 3 starts since rejoining the rotation.
The Marlins are 6-0-2 Over the total in their last 8 games played, and starter Dan Straily sports an ERA over 8 for his last 3 starts, the Over also going 2-0-1 in those 3 efforts.
Nothing more needs be said....Mets-Marlins Over.
5* N.Y. METS-MIAMI OVER
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for tonight is a baseball total, as we get into Over/Under mode after hitting a pair over the weekend, and roll with another premium total tonight in NFL.
Right here, though, I like the New York Mets and Miami Marlins to sail past the easy number. I have this one going into double digits.
Harvey’s fastball velocity continues to tick upward, but the command of his pitches is still lacking. The right-hander issued four walks and allowed five runs in 3.1 innings his last time out, while his ERA jumped to a season-high 6.14.
As for Straily, his 30th start of the season was his worst, as he was pelted for eight runs on 13 hits by the Philadelphia Phillies on Sept. 13. After posting a 3.31 ERA in his first 18 starts, the right-hander is 2-5 with a 5.74 ERA in 12 outings since the All-Star break.
I love this one to get into double digits.
1* Mets-Marlins Over
Chris Jordan
On paper, the Over looks like a better play. But I'm not convinced Detroit starter Buck Farmer is going to struggle here, despite Oakland hitting 48 home runs in its past 24 games.
The Tigers, who will likely use Miguel Cabrera one more time - tonight for this series-opener - are going to get a big game from Farmer, who will be looking to avenge his previous outing at Cleveland last Wednesday, when he gave up four runs in four innings over 98 pitches.
He struck out seven Indians batters, and is capable of one more great outing, at home, against a bad Oakland team.
I also think Detroit's lineup, which produced a 12-0 win yesterday at home against the Chicago White Sox, will get to Jharel Cotton, who has never faced the Tigers in his two Major League seasons.
Cotton has had an inconsistent September, including a one-run, six-inning outing versus hard-hitting Texas. He's allowed 14 runs in his last three starts since that start, so I don't know what how long he's going to last in this game.
5* TIGERS
Bob Balfe
Brewers -105
The Brewers are fighting for a wild card slot while it looks like the Pirates have checked out for the season. Milwaukee has the pitching edge tonight and by far has been the much hotter team. This is a must win game if they want to sneak into the playoffs.
OC Dooley
Twins +145
This is a rare chance for the nation to see baseball's most surprising side as Minnesota (if the season ended today) would be in the playoffs even though the team's front office "dumped" their closer along with veteran Jamie Garcia at the trade deadline. Ironically the Twins oppose that pitcher this evening and Garcia is making just his SECOND start in a 20-day stretch. For those who follow the Yankees you know that shortstop Didi Gregorious just swatted homerun #24 which ties a single-season FRANCHISE RECORD with legendary Derek Jeter. Against tonight's Twins starter Ervin Santana the Yankees current shortstop (2-for-14) has struggled thus opening the door for a Minnesota offense which has tied an all-time FRANCHISE RECORD by homering in SIXTEEN consecutive games. Twins veteran starter Ervin Santana this season is UNDEFEATED (6-0 ON THE ROAD) when the posted total has been in the "nine" range which is the case tonight