Harry Bondi
NEVADA (+7) over Air Force
Extremely difficult spot here for the Fly Boys to be laying a TD on the road on a short week. In the last two weeks, Air Force has played a couple of draining games, falling behind to Navy, 38-17, before a furious comeback fell short in an eventual 48-45 crushing loss, followed by last week’s game against UNLV when they fell behind 27-0 before rallying to come back and win 34-30. What’s more, this is the team’s third road game in four weeks and they have rivals Colorado State and Army on deck. Despite a 1-6 straight up record, Nevada has covered two in a row and is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home dog of seven or less.
Dave Price
Marshall vs. Mid Tennessee St
Play: Marshall -1½
The Marshall Thundering Herd have been one of the best bounce-back stories in college football this season after being dreadful last year. They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS this season with their only loss coming 20-37 on the road to a very good NC State team as 21-point dogs. Four of their five wins have come by double-digits this season. Middle Tennessee State just hasn't been very good without star quarterback Brent Stockstill, who is expected to miss another game tonight. Even a bad Marshall team beat Middle Tennessee 42-17 last year as 8-point dogs.
Tommy Brunson
Not a real huge fan of laying a big number n the road, but in the case of 4-2 Western Kentucky taking on 2-4 Old Dominion, I will make an exception.
This is not the same Hilltoppers team that used to run roughshod over foes back in the Jeff Brohm era, but they did cover their first game of the season last week in a 45-14 rout of a weak Charlotte team. They should be able to repeat that performance against the 2-4 Monarchs who could only muster a field goal in their 35-3 setback to Marshall last weekend.
Series numbers show Western with the straight up win in each of the past 3 meetings, all 3 wins coming by double-digits, and the Hilltoppers are 2-0-1 against the spread in those 3 victories.
Let's go ahead and lay it with Western Kentucky to keep their roll going.
2* WESTERN KENTUCKY
Chris Jordan
My free play is on a College Football side for tonight, as I like Nevada plus the points at home against Air Force. The Wolf Pack are getting +7-even money, so buying a half point up will make it +7' -110. Take the underdog.
I'll be real honest - as a Las Vegas-native and UNLV guy - I was certain Nevada sucked after the Fresno State game. I was ready to revel in the demise of the Wolf Pack. But, professionally speaking, I have to say the last two games have seemed like a light turning on with the offense. The defense is still horrible, but the offense is holding its own.
And with Air Force arriving to Reno less than a week after a miraculous comeback against hapless UNLV, I wonder if a letdown is coming. I certainly don't believe the Falcons should be laying a touchdown to Nevada, at Mackay Stadium in Reno.
Bad move by the books.
That said, I do admit that I don’t see any way Nevada stops Air Force’s offense unless the Falcons fumble some option pitches. So it really comes down to whether the Wolf Pack can continue the same offensive production we've seen the last two weeks. I thought the Hawaii game might have been a fluke against a bad team, but the Pack looked legitimately good on offense last week against a solid Colorado State defense.
If I had to bet my life on a side, it would be silly not to use Air Force, but this is a free pick, and I don't like the big number with a team that almost lost at home to UNLV. I think Nevada can win this game as long as it plays offense like it did the last two weeks.
Again, the Nevada defense is going to get shredded, so here's a bonus for you - play the Over, too. But take the underdog.
5* NEVADA/1* OVER
Jack Brayman
My free play is on the Philadephia 76ers over the Boston Celtics, who are still in search of their first victory of the season and obviously struggling without Gordon Hayward.
The Celtics lost Hayward to a gruesome leg injury less than six minutes into the season, during a 102-99 loss in Cleveland. Then they dropped a 108-100 decision at home to Milwaukee.
Meanwhile, the Sixers wil play in their home-opener tonight after a tough 120-115 loss in Washington. It was a game performance, and certainly showed me this team might contend with a young, healthy, talented squad.
With Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz, the top picks in each of the last two drafts, plus Joel Embid, the Sixers will have the home crowd on fire tonight for the home opener.
Take Philly.
1* SIXERS
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for tonight is on the Over in Game 6 of the American League Championship Series, as the New York Yankees head to Houston to try to eliminate the Astros.
Everyone talking about Verlander this, Verlander that ... pfft!
The guy just threw 124 pitches on Saturday, and while I know that was last weekend, he hasn't necessarily been up to par after throwing more than 120 pitches in his next outing. And with as well as the Yankees are slugging the ball in the ALCS, I have to believe Verlander could struggle in this one.
Now, in defense of the Astros, getting to Severino, make note that teams trailing 3-2 and getting to play the final two games at home have come back to win the series 13 of 27 times, including eight of 17 times after dropping Game 5 to go down 3-2. Houston's offense has no choice but to come alive at this point, and tonight is as good a night as any.
Play this one high.
4* Yankees-Astros Over
Joey Juice
It was a pitchers duel in Game 2, and so too will it be in Game 6.
Severino held the Astros to just one run in four innings in Game 2, and let's not forget the Yankees bullpen because they have been key to the post season success of New York, 2.05 ERA in the Playoffs.
We look inside the numbers and the stats tell it all.
The under is 8-0 in the Astros last eight games against a right-handed starter.
When Verlander is pitching against the Yankees, the under is 13-5 in the last 18 played.
This game is an under!
3* N.Y. YANKEES-HOUSTON UNDER
Teddy Davis
Jazz vs. Wolves
Play: Wolves -4
Let's take a look here at the T Wolves here tonight for their first home game. I had them in their first game and it was a loser but they had their chances to win SU at the Spurs, but blew the last 5 minutes of that game and didn't even cover. I just think they are way to deep here for the Jazz who are obviously with Hayward this year and Exum is hurt once again.
ASA
Boston at Philadelphia
Play: Boston +2
The Celtics clearly suffered a huge blow on the opening night of the season when they lost Gordon Hayward and then were beaten by the Cavaliers. They returned home to face the up-and-coming Bucks at home and lost outright as a small chalk. Philly meanwhile lost at Washington and have core of young exciting talent on the roster. But has the 76ers roster improved that much they should be favored over the team that had the best overall record in the East last year? Granted, the Celtics have a new roster and lost Hayward, but Philly was a favorite just TWO TIMES all last season. In fact, the 76ers have been instilled as a chalk by the oddsmakers just 6 times in the past two full seasons! Boston is off two straight losses (24-13 65% SU off a ‘L’ last year) to start the season (versus playoff teams) and now step way down in talent here. The 76ers don’t have anyone that can guard Kyrie Irving here yet Boston has Horford to defend Embiid. Easy bet on Boston.
SPORTS WAGERS
MID TENNESSEE ST +105 over Marshall
The Thundering Herd have caught fire by winning their last four contests overall and doing so in dominant fashion. Marshall has outscored its opponents 108-27 over this span. Marshall’s sole defeat on the year was to N.C. State, who is currently ranked #16 in the country. Marshall has been a cash cow against the spread this year by cashing tickets for their backers five out of six times. The Thundering Herd seem like a gravy train but that’s the worst time to jump on. There is a time to get off and this scenario sets up perfectly to do just that.
Last week Marshall closed as a 12½-point choice at home against Old Dominion and won by a margin of 35-3. However, this week the Herd opened not even spotting a field goal. What jumps out at us even more is that the opening number (+2½) is one that is a notoriously favorable figure for the underdog. The hook here is that if Marshall were to win by just a field goal, they would secure yet another cover. However, in many cases underdogs that are offered at this price are in line to orchestrate an upset.
Middle Tennessee State comes in off a loss at a UAB football program that was just reinstated this year after prolonged futility as a perpetual bottom-feeder. The Blue Raiders are a team that generally plays at a higher level at home. In fact, bookmakers have used this angle to their advantage when MTSU opened their season at home against Vanderbilt. The Commodores opened spotting over a touchdown to the Blue Raiders, but a heavy steam of action on Middle Tennessee State drove the Commodores down to a deflated favorite. The ‘Dores would embarrass the Blue Raiders by a score of 28-6. Since then, MTSU has won their last two at home and done so by convincing margins but the market has dismissed this by virtue of the fact it was against two marshmallows in FIU and Bowling Green. An opposite course of events has been the case with Marshall.
While Marshall may have an impressive record on the season and a four-game winning streak where they appear to get better each week, its victories were earned against nominal competition. In their current streak, the Herd own wins over a winless Charlotte team, a Kent State team that has beaten only one FBS team this season, a Cincinnati Bearcats team that is a shell of its former self, and an Old Dominion football team that came into Huntington riding a three-game losing streak. Perhaps the most glaring thing to note here is one that this market will not see or has no idea about. We’ve already covered Marshall’s weak schedule but you may be surprised to learn that Marshall’s over/under win total for the season was five. They already have five wins so either the books made a massive mistake in reading what this team was capable of or State is a lot worse than this market realizes and just caught lightning in a bottle for a few weeks. We generally like to side with the odds-makers more than the results. The timing is now perfect to jump off this high-profile ship that’s headed right for an iceberg. MTSU outright is the call.
SPORTS WAGERS
DETROIT +114 over Washington
The Red Wings are coming off back-to-back losses to Tampa and Toronto, the top two teams in the East and Detroit was the better team in both games. They also went into Vegas and beat the Golden Knights 6-3, which may not seem like much but every other team that has played in Vegas has had nothing but misery. The Red Wings were projected to be a team in trouble this year and while it’s still early, they might be a lot better than advertised. They Red Wings have four lines that can play and three lines that can absolutely bury the puck. Keep your eye on Martin Frk on Detroit’s third line with Frans Nielsen and Darren Helm. The rookie has a wicked shot and release and already has three goals. The Mantha/Zetterberg/Nyquist line is playing at a high level out there and the second line of Tatar/Larkin/Abdelkader is dangerous too. The defense is also better than advertised, as Trevor Daley has fit in nicely, Niklas Kronwall is healthy and Mike Green is still an offensive force. Detroit has some nice wins this year and if they get the goaltending, they will be very competitive. Perhaps most importantly is that Detroit believes in what they’re doing and are playing with a fire in their belly. We can’t say the same for the Capitals.
We figured on regression for the Capitals but we were wrong. We gave them too much credit. Washington’s demise is going to come fast and furious. They have lost their edge and swag. Its defense is the worst in hockey and it might not be close. The exodus of key players, including three d-men combined with the window of opportunity that has closed combined with the aforementioned loss of their swag makes the Caps one of the more beatable teams in the NHL this year. There is a massive drop off in talent after the Caps top six. In fact, anyone after their top six would have a difficult time cracking any NHL lineup in the league. It is time to move in hard against the Caps because they are going to be overpriced for a few more weeks until this market adjusts to how bad they truly are. Make no mistake folks, the Caps are not going to the playoffs. Barry Trotz is going to lose his job and the only way this team doesn’t lose 45 games or more is if Braden Holtby stands on his head the entire season. Some may not agree but we don’t care. We’re taking a position here because we have watched all seven games that Washington has played and they look worse each time out. The attack on this overpriced Capitals team will not relent and we expect to get paid.
The bets are as follows:
Detroit -1½ +3.10 for 1 unit
Detroit +114 for 1 unit
WINNIPEG -1½ +260 over Minnesota
Paul Maurice's contract should have contained a clause that prohibits him from making goaltending decisions. GM and coaches only dream of having the talent that the Jets have, yet this idiot Maurice figured that after a three game winning streak with Connor Hellebucyk in goal, it would be a good idea to go back to Steve Mason. Naturally the Jets lost but Hellebucyk will be back in goal here. Over its three wins, the Jets outscored Edmonton, Vancouver and Carolina, 11-5. The Jets are 3-0 with Hellebucyk in net and 0-3 with Mason in net. They’ll now play a team that is getting way too much respect in this market.
Minnesota should be taking back +160 or more here, not +105 so if you want to spot -125 with the Jets, you would still be getting great value. In just four games, the Wild have scored 15 goals but that’s due to a high shooting percentage. They have clearly been outplayed in every game. They are spending more time in the box than the opposition and way more time in their own end too. The Wild were badly outshot by both Columbus and Carolina. They were outshot by Chicago too. They rank dead last in the NHL in Corsi For % and are also dead last in scoring chances per game. Minnesota had a decent season a year ago but this is a nothing team that plays an old school style of trying to grind out wins because they can’t outclass or compete any other way. Lay the small price if you like but we’ll gladly spot the pucks and take back a sweet price.
Pass MLB
Stephen Nover
Orlando at Brooklyn
Play: Orlando +2
Orlando actually looked impressive in holding off Miami during its opening game victory. That was the first time the Magic had won its season opener since 2012.
The Magic really would like to build off that momentum. They have a great opportunity here in their second game.
Brooklyn is even worse than Orlando and just lost sparkplug point guard Jeremy Lin. The Nets lost 39 of 46 games that Lin missed last season. It was extremely depressing for the Nets to see Lin ruputre the patella tendon in his right knee during their 140-131 season-opening loss to the Pacers.
As you can tell by that score, the Nets still aren't playing any defense.
Bob Balfe
Astros -140
Both teams in this series have taken care of business at home. In MLB you play all season long to get the home field advantage in a series like this. The Yankees might indeed be up, but the ball is in the Astros court. This team has been great at home all year long while the Yankees have been below average. This should be another great pitching match up. The Yankees are a different team away from home as they don’t score as many runs. Look for Houston to force a Game 7.
Bruce Marshall
Sharks at Devils
Pick: Devils
New Jersey's goal parade continued last night in a 5-4 win vs. the Sens, also the sixth "over: in seven games to date for New Jersey. It's now 31 goals in seven games for New Jersey, with top draft pick Nico Hischier breaking out last night with two goals and an assist at Ottawa in his first multi-point game of his young career. San Jose has had great success vs. Eastern teams in recent years but the Sharks broke slowly from the gate, losing three of their first five games, all at home.
Dr Bob
INDIANA (+5) over Portland
Portland opened the season with a 124-76 road win but teams that play that well in their opener tend to relax in game 2, especially against a non-division opponent that they should beat. In fact, Non-division game 2 favorites of 2 points or more that won their opening game by 15 points or more and covered the spread by 12 points or more are 0-22-2 ATS.
Indiana has a lot of new pieces this season but the Pacers played well in their 140-131 opening win over the Nets. Brooklyn is a bad team but the Packers won that game despite making just 9 of 34 (26.5%) 3-point shots while the Nets were 40% from long range (12 of 30). Unfortunately, star big man Myles Turner is listed as doubtful tonight – although that is reflected in the line, which has moved up from 3.5 points. I’ll take Indiana in a 1-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more.
Opinion – Golden State (-8½) over NEW ORLEANS
The Warriors lost their opening game for the 2nd consecutive season but game 2 favorites of 4 points or more that lost their opener straight up as a favorite of more than 2 points are 30-7 ATS. That’s worth a lean on the Warriors tonight against a Pelicans squad that still hasn’t proven that they can play with both Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins.
Opinion – DALLAS (-5½) over Sacramento
Dallas was upset in their opener, losing 111-117 to the Hawks as a 5 ½ point home favorite. It’s likely that the Mavericks will redeem themselves tonight, as game 2 favorites of 4 points or more that lost their opener straight up as a favorite of more than 2 points are 30-7 ATS. Sacramento covered the spread in their 5 point home loss to the Rockets, who had just upset the Warriors the previous night, but the Kings were lucky to be that close given that Houston missed 33 3-points shots and converted on just 26.7% from long range. The Kings would have lost by about 15 points if the Rockets had a normal 3-point shooting night and I expect Sacramento to really struggle this season.