Free Picks for Friday, August 18th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
ANGELS AT ORIOLES
PLAY: ANGELS +125
The AL wild card chase is some riveting stuff, with all but a couple of teams out of the running. That makes virtually every game big right now, and tonight’s duel between the Angels and Orioles is certainly no exception.
Andrew Heaney is finally back from his injury issues and he’ll have a tough assignment tonight. This Orioles team can rake when they’re at home, and Heaney will have his work cut out containing the Birds. But he’s sure to be fired up for his biog league return, and Heaney has looked pretty good in his rehab efforts.
Jeremy Hellickson might not have it so easy tonight, either. The Angels might not feature a lineup that will be confused with Murderer’s Row. But this team is hitting when it counts right now. It’s also worth noting that the Halos are pretty much never out of a game. They actually lead the American League with an impressive 37 come from behind victories.
Mike Scioscia is doing a great job extracting the max out of his roster, and the longtime Angels skipper has to be in the mix for Manager of the Year honors. He’s got an ordinary roster playing inspired baseball right now. The Orioles are absolutely not pushovers at home. But I like the concept of taking a sizzling entry at a pretty decent dog price, so I’ll side with the Angels for the Friday free play.
Scott Rickenbach
Ottawa vs. Hamilton
Play: Hamilton +3½
The Tiger-Cats are still winless on the season but hosting a 1-6-1 Redblacks team provides them with some hope here. The fact is that the points could prove to be valuable here as two struggling teams square off but the home dog is there for the taking. It's one thing to get embarrassed on the road (which has happened to Hamilton a couple times this season) but to get trounced at home like they were last week is something unexpected and unacceptable. Look for the Ti-Cats to respond in a big way against a division rival here. Ottawa is only 1-3 ATS as a favorite this season and, long-term, the Redblacks are on an 8-13 ATS run when they are a fave in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Tiger-Cats, as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, are a perfect 2-0 ATS this season and 7-3 ATS the last 3 seasons combined. Grab the ugly home dog in this one as Ottawa is so disappointed to be 1-6-1 after winning the Grey Cup last season while the Tiger-Cats won't stop fighting for their first win of the season and certainly getting it against the Grey Cup Champs (no matter their record) would be a feather in their cap.
Marc Lawrence
Yankees vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -132
Edges - Red Sox: Pomeranz 5-2 with 2.91 ERA last seven overall team starts; and 9-2 team starts vs AL Central foes, and 12-4 team starts at night this season… Yankees: Montgomery 2-6 with 4.78 ERA last 8 overall team starts; and 3-5 team starts vs AL East foes this season… With Pomeranz in strong KW form with 17 Ks and 4 BBs his last three starts, we recommend a 1* play on Boston.
Dennis Macklin
Diamondbacks vs. Twins
Play: Under 9
Tonight we have a value total with two starters in razor sharp form. Zack Godley has been sharp all year (5-5, 2.95, 17 starts, 3-3, 2.72, 9 road starts) and has been slightly better in his last three with a 2.37 ERA and three straight Unders. The Under is 10-5 in his starts this year, 7-2 on the road. Ervin Santana is one of those old war horses that you can count on to give a solid effort every outing. In his L3 starts, .270 while giving up just 17 hits in 21 innings with a 4/21 BB/K ratio. The Under is 14-8 in his 24 starts. Solid outings by the starters and minimal involvement by the pens equate to a solid play on the UNDER.
Jesse Schule
Yankees vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -130
The Red Sox have won 11 of their last 13 overall, and they are four games clear of the Yankees at the top of the AL East standings. I like Boston in Game 1 at Fenway Friday.
Drew Pomeranz will toe the slab for the Sox, and he's had an outstanding season. He's 7-2 with a 3.43 ERA in a dozen starts in Boston, and he's 3-0 with a 2.69 ERA in his last six starts overall. He's 2-0 with a 4.08 ERA in three starts against the Yankees this season.
New York will hand the ball to Jordan Montgomery, who has struggled in the second half of the season. He's 1-2 with a 4.85 ERA in his last six starts. In one start at Fenway this season, he allowed three runs on six hits and three walks in four innings in a no decision.
Aaron Judge is really struggling at the plate, batting just .185 since the All Star break. He's hit .174 with 20 strikeouts against the Red Sox this season.
Jim Feist
Chicago at Texas
Pick: Under
This is a high total and a young rebuilding Chicago team is in town with a below average offense, on a 7-3-1 run under the total. Texas is on a 5-2-1 run under. This is a tough park to pitch in but Texas starter Andrew Cashner (3.32 ERA) has adjusted well, with a 2.25 ERA at home this season. Texas is 7-0 under when he starts, 7-1 under when he faces a losing team.
Rob Vinciletti
Chicago vs. Toronto
Play: Chicago -160
The Cubs are a solid 15-1 as a favorite in the 2nd half of a season in a series opener, if they won todays starters last 2 outings. Chicago also fits a 91% system that plays on certain home favorites off a home loss by 2+ runs despite putting up 10+ runs vs a team off a win. Arietta makes the start for the Cubs who are 13-1 in his August starts. J.A. Happ for the Jays has an elevated 5.52 Era in games vs the Cubs. Look for Chicago to take the opener.
SPORTS WAGERS
COLORADO -1½ +110 over Milwaukee
We’re ditching the Coors Field angle here because Matt Garza has been high on our fade list for three years and counting and we’re not about to get behind him at this park. We’re thrilled to fade him though. Garza has walked 12 batters over his past 19 innings. In his last start, he walked five and struck out two in five frames. His swinging strike rate since the beginning of August is 3% to go along with a WHIP of 1.78. He’ll now bring his 6.37 xERA into this minefield where most games are won by two or more runs. Garza’s actual 4.38 ERA is a complete mirage and we’re going to attack this one with confidence.
German Marquez has increased his strikeouts (9.2 K’s/9) with more swings and misses (12%) in the second half. Facing a Milwaukee lineup that swings and misses more often vs. RHP (25.7%) than any team in baseball only adds to Marquez's appeal here, In 113 innings, Marquez has an outstanding BB/K split of 37/107. xERA does not take park factors into consideration so when you look at Marquez’s 3.57 xERA in the second half, it is without question one of the best in the game. He has 31 K’s over his past 30 innings with a nifty 47% groundball rate. Cory Kluber and the Tribe are -1½ -121 in K.C against Ian Kennedy today while the Dodgers with Rich Hill starting are -1½ -115 in Detroit against Jordan Zimmerman. This pitching matchup at Coors Field however, is the biggest mismatch on the board and we’re being offered a bit of a tag. Pencil us in immediately for that.
SPORTS WAGERS
Ottawa -3½ over HAMILTON
Last week, we cited the Tiger-cats as being in the best situational spot possible and if they could not take advantage of the positive situational advantages they were in, shame on them. Hamilton was smoked 39-12 by Winnipeg. Winless and desperate, the ‘Cats couldn’t even compete, which was a testament to how toothless they are and have been all season long. Hamilton was outgained by 161 yards last week. The last three weeks they have been outgained by 161 yards, 131 yards and 201 yards respectively. On July 8 in Saskatchewan, the Ti-Cats were outgained by 258 yards. They have been outgained in every game this year and their point differential after a seven games is a monstrous -143. Furthermore, the Cats will not have All-Star defensive tackle Ted Laurent here after he suffered a hamstring injury in last weekend’s loss to Winnipeg. That’s the positives surrounding this team.
The players got into a brawl with upwards of 20 players involved at practice on Aug. 1 during an offence vs. defense drill where punches were thrown. Zach Collaros has the fewest passing yards among QBs in the league and owns the least amount of touchdown passes. He has also thrown the most picks and the worst part is that the offense is not the biggest problem. Defensively, the Ticats are allowing a league-worst 475.7 yards per game while averaging 39 points scored against. We usually do not get into numbers or get behind road favorites but the Tabbies are a train wreck unlike anything we’ve seen in this league in over 45 years. In a desperate move after getting crushed by Winnipeg last week, Hamilton fired its defensive coordinator and “promoted” Phillip Lolley from his role as defensive run game coordinator and linebackers coach. That’s like shuffling chairs on the upper deck of an ocean liner. This idiot show continues. The final problem here for Hamilton is that it is facing a team that is in no position to take anyone lightly with just one victory of its own this season.
Ottawa is 1-6-1. Its biggest margin of defeat this year is seven points with the other five losses being by four, one, two, three and three respectively. The Redblacks could easily be 6-1-1 or even 8-0, yet here we are eight weeks in and Hamilton and Ottawa could have the same number of victories after tonight. That’s not even reasonable, as one team has been highly competitive while the other squad has a 59-point loss and four other losses by 15 points or more. Redblacks QB Trevor Harris has thrown for 2,468 yards and 16 touchdowns through eight games. This is one of the CFL’s most efficient offenses that puts up big numbers every week. Harris figures to get more time this week than he’s had all season and that means another crooked number will be on the scoreboard against the Tabbies. Hamilton has not been able to keep pace or even come close to keeping pace with anyone, let alone an offense of the caliber they’ll see here. Ottawa is not a one-win team, while the Tigercats are a legit winless team. The Redblacks had a great week of practice. They want this game badly and even said the losses are becoming personal. This is a tight-knit team on the verge of a string of victories while Hamilton is a mess in every way possible including a divided locker room.
B.C. LIONS +4½ over Calgary
The Stampeders have arguably the most balanced roster in the CFL and it starts with quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell. His numbers aren’t quite on par to last year when he won the league’s Most Outstanding Player Award, as he is fifth in passing yards and tied for third in passing touchdowns entering this week, but Calgary’s is still 5-1-1 However, Calgary’s last three victories came against Saskatchewan, Hamilton and Toronto. The Stamps have played just three road games with wins over Winnipeg and Toronto and a seven-point loss in Montreal. In their win against Toronto, Calgary only outgained the Argonauts by 30 yards. In their two games against Ottawa this season, Calgary was extremely fortunate to not go 0-2. Maybe, just maybe, the Stamps are not as good as advertised but you’ll continue to pay a premium to back them.
Additionally, there are several overreactions working here, which has created even more of an inflated line. First, Calgary has been off for 15 days while B.C. has been off for five days so the market is being fed the “rested v the unrested” angle. Secondly, Calgary has defeated B.C., 42-15 and 37-9 the past two games they have played against one another, which also has influence on the number. Finally, the Lions are coming off a 41-8 loss to Saskatchewan last week, which resonates with bettors because it’s very fresh in their minds but we’ll give the Lions a pass for that performance last week (which looks must worse on paper) because it was sandwiched between a 30-15 win over the Riders the week before and this “showdown” with their most hated rival.
What we know for sure is that B.C. is 2-1 at home this year with only loss being by three points to Edmonton in its season opener. We also know that Jonathon Jennings’ growth in 2016 was due to his ability to recover. Jennings was 3-1 last season when coming off a loss and threw for a combined 1,049 yards and seven touchdowns in those victories. The Lions competed with the Stamps in B.C. last year and were even in a position to blow them out before a series of bizarre incidents allowed the Stamps to fight back and escape with a 44-41 victory. The Lions led 34-19 at the half and were going in for a TD that would have made it 41-14 but a fumble and a TD pass three plays later turned that game around. What the market is focusing on instead of that potential B.C. blowout is that Calgary has won big over the Lions the past two games and B.C. just got smoked by the Riders. All told, the Lions are too good to be taking back this many points in their own barn and if we’re sticking to playing value, than this host must be played.
Will Rogers
Miami at New York
Pick: New York
The set-up: The Mets will be happy to know that they won't see the Yankees (or Aaron Judge) anymore this season. The Mets enter Friday fresh off four consecutive losses to the Yankees, who swept the Subway Series for the first time since 2003 by earning a 7-5 win at Citi Field on Thursday night. The 53-66 Mets are at least 13 games below .500 for the first time since ending the 2013 season at 74-88. While they are through with Judge and the Yankees, they will have to contend with the Marlins six more times in 2017, including three games this weekend at Citi Field. Of course, Miami visits Queens with the MLB leader in HRs, Giancarlo Stanton. The Miami slugger has a remarkable 23 HRs in his past 36 games (dating back to July 5), giving him MLB-best 44, which is already a franchise-record for a single season. Stanton has 32 HRs in 102 career games against New York.
The pitching matchup: Justin Nicolino (1-1 & 4.56 ERA) will start for Miami and Chris Flexen (2-1 & 7.02 ERA) is scheduled for New York. Nicolino earned his first win as a starter in more than 15 months on Saturday, when he allowed two runs (one earned) over 5 1/3 innings as the Marlins beat the Colorado Rockies 4-3. The victory was Nicolino's first since September 13, 2016, when he tossed two scoreless innings of relief in the Marlins' win over the Atlanta Braves and his first as a starter since May 3, 2016, when he allowed four runs over six innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Flexen is a rookie making his fifth career start. He won his second consecutive start Sunday, allowing just two runs over five innings as the Mets beat the Phillies 6-2 in Philadelphia. The Mets have won three of his four starts in 2017 and not surprisingly, this marks his first appearance against the Marlins AND Stanton.
The pick: Let's see if Flexen is up to the challenge of facing Stanton. He may not be (many others have not been) but Nicolino is a vulnerable mound opponent. He's made a modest 37 career appearances (31 starts), going 9-11 and his teams are 15-16 in his starts. His career ERA is 4.53, his career WHIP is 1.42 and opponents are batting .294 against them. Those are less-than-impressive numbers plus all three of those stats are higher in 2017, as his ERA is 4.56, his WHIP 1.83 and opponents are crushing the ball in batting .327 against him.
Larry Wallace
Nationals vs. Padres
Play: Nationals -1½
Scherzer is 12-5 with a 2.25 ERA this year. Also, while pitching on the road Scherzer is 8-2 with a 1.79 ERA. The Nationals are 5-1 in their last 6 games against a team with a losing record. Perdomo this year holds a 5.03 ERA. Also, in his last 3 starts has a 6.00 ERA.
Jack Jones
Yankees vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -122
The Boston Red Sox are one of the hottest teams in baseball. They have gone 12-2 in their last 14 games overall to take control of the AL East. They look to further distance themselves from the New York Yankees with another win in Game 1 of this series Friday night.
The Red Sox had yesterday off, while the Yankees played the Mets, so that's a nice little advantage for them. And the Red Sox clearly have the better starter in Drew Pomeranz, who is 12-4 with a 3.39 ERA in 23 starts this season, 7-2 with a 3.43 ERA in 12 home starts, and 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA in his last three starts.
Pomeranz is also 2-1 with a 3.32 ERA in seven career starts against the Yankees. The Red Sox are 4-0 in Pomeranz's last four starts vs. New York. He's better than Jordan Montgomery, who is 7-6 with a 3.94 ERA in 22 starts, and 3-4 with a 4.13 ERA in 11 road starts.
Pomeranz is 11-1 (+12.5 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last two seasons. The Yankees are 1-11 in road games after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for four or more earned runs over the last two seasons. The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last nine home games. Boston is 6-0 in Pomeranz's last six starts vs. AL East opponents.
John Martin
Arizona at Minnesota
Play: Arizona -112
The Minnesota Twins just played a double-header yesterday against the Cleveland Indians. They will be spent, while the Arizona Diamondbacks will be the fresher, more focused team. Zack Godley has posted the best numbers of all Arizona starters. He is 5-5 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 17 starts with 109 K's in 106 2/3 innings. Ervin Santana hasn't been as good as his overall numbers would suggest because he's been one of the luckiest starters this season on balls in play. He has a 4.01 ERA in 12 home starts this year. I think Santana gets lit up against a potent Arizona lineup that scores 5.0 runs/game against right-handed starters this season. The Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last 10 interleague games, and 6-0 in their last six vs. AL Central foes. Arizona is 8-2 in Godley's last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Twins are 28-57 in their last 85 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Minnesota is 8-18 in Santana's last 26 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Wunderdog
San Antonio vs. Seattle
Pick: San Antonio +10
The San Antonio Stars have the worst record in the WNBA this season at 7-22. That makes the public weary of playing on this team, and the oddsmakers have often had to pad lines for their games in order to get some bites. I think once again the Stars are on the valued side of things tonight. While they have the worst record in the WNBA, they are the fourth best team ATS on the season, and are playing their best basketball of the season in winning and covering four of their last five. The Storm has underachieved all season, and is just 7-14 in their last 21 games, hardly deserving of double-digit favorite status.